Transcript Operating Inside Their OODA Loops

U.S. Air Force photo/
Senior Master Sgt. Mahmoud Rasouliyan
Crisis Management: Operating Inside
Their OODA Loops
Chet Richards
J. Addams & Partners
Atlanta
April 4, 2008
Adapted from a presentation
to the First Adaptive
Leadership Symposium,
Greenville Technical Institute
March 19, 2008
Why we’re here today
Many [homeland security] drills now are command-post type
exercises in which participation and decisions are downwarddirected, the opposite of how the event will unfold in the real
world. The secret to military efficiency has always been solid
planning, training and exercising. It has great merit for adoption
by others.
“U.S. Has Strategy for Homeland Security, But Are We Ready?”
By Lawrence P. Farrell Jr.,
President, National Defense Industrial Association
National Defense, February 2008.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
2
According to Boyd, a fighter pilot didn’t
win by faster reflexes; he won because his reflexes
were connected to a brain that thought faster than the
opponent.
— Bing West and Ray Smith,
The March Up, p. 11
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
3
Using the OODA “loop”
to make better decisions
faster
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
4
Leadership (a la Boyd)
 Appreciation refers to the recognition of worth
or value, clear perception, understanding,
comprehension, discernment, etc.
 Leadership implies the art of inspiring people to
enthusiastically take action toward the
achievement of uncommon goals.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
5
Appreciation and leadership [Organic
Design, Chart 34]
Nature
Appreciation and leadership permit one to discern, direct and shape what is to be
done as well as permit one to modify the direction and shaping by assessing what is
being done or about to be done (by friendlies as well as adversaries).
What does this mean?
Appreciation, as part of leadership, must provide assessment of what is being done
in a clear unambiguous way. In this sense, appreciation must not interact nor
interfere with the system but must discern (not shape) the character/nature of what
is being done or about to be done;
whereas
Leadership must give direction in terms of what is to be done also in a clear
unambiguous way. In this sense, leadership must interact with the system to shape
the character or nature of that system in order to realize what is to be done.
Implication
Assessment and discernment should be invisible and should not interfere with
operations while direction and shaping should be evident to system—otherwise
appreciation and leadership do not exist as an effective means to improve our fitness
to shape and cope with unfolding circumstances.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
6
Why are appreciation and leadership
important?
The simple answer is that
they permit people to:
– Operate inside opponents’
OODA loops
– Create organizations that
can operate inside
opponents’ OODA loops
– Evolve organizations that
become continually better
at operating inside
opponents’ OODA loops
In military operations, time is
everything.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
Colonel Arthur Wellesley
Despatch
June 30, 1800
7
“Operate inside opponents’
OODA loops” ???
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
8
“Operate inside opponents’ OODA
loops”
Intentions
Transients

Observe, orient, decide and
act more inconspicuously,
more quickly, and with more
irregularity
permits
one to

Probe and test adversary to
unmask strengths, weaknesses,
maneuvers, and intentions.

Employ a variety of measures
that interweave menaceuncertainty-mistrust with tangles
of ambiguity-deception-novelty
as basis to sever adversary’s
moral ties and disorient …

Select initiative (or response)
that is least expected.

Establish focus of main effort
together with other effort and
pursue directions that permit
many happenings, offer many
branches, and threaten
alternative objectives.

Move along paths of least
resistance (to reinforce and
exploit success).

Generate uncertainty, confusion,
disorder, panic, chaos … to
shatter cohesion, produce
paralysis and bring about
collapse.

Become an extraordinary
commander.
or put another way

Operate inside adversary’s
observation-orientationdecision action loops or get
inside his mind-time-space.
Patterns of Conflict, 132
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
9
Why worry about OODA loops?
Intentions
Transients

Observe, orient, decide and
act more inconspicuously,
more quickly, and with more
irregularity
or put another way

Operate inside adversary’s
observation-orientationdecision action loops or get
inside his mind-time-space.

Probe and test adversary to
unmask strengths, weaknesses,
maneuvers, and intentions.

Employ a variety of measures
that interweave menaceuncertainty-mistrust with tangles
of ambiguity-deception-novelty
as basis to sever adversary’s
moral ties and disorient …
permits
Change
the situation before:
one
to
Select initiative (or response)
• Customers get bored

that is least expected.
Establish focus of main effort
together with other effort and
pursue directions that permit
many happenings, offer many
branches, and threaten
alternative objectives.
• Competitors think of something more
attractive

Move along paths of least
• Opponents figure out
what’s
going on
resistance (to reinforce and
exploit success).
• The “situation” changes
itself uncertainty,
in ways confusion,

Generate
disorder, panic, chaos … to
you may not like
shatter cohesion, produce
paralysis and bring about
collapse.

Patterns of Conflict, 132
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
Become an extraordinary
commander.
10
Tom Peters on Boyd
Confuse and confound the “enemy”
by your speed, per se. While the
Champions of Inertia are busy scheduling the next
“planning review,” you swiftly get the job done …
and go public with it. (Re-imagine! P. 219)
The OODA loop is “the real nub of
competitiveness.”
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
11
So, what is an “OODA loop”????
The OODA “Loop” Sketch
Observe
Unfolding
Circumstances
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Feed
Observations Forward
Orient
Genetic
Heritage
Unfolding
Interaction
With
Environment
Act
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Cultural
Traditions
New
Information
Outside
Information
Decide
Analyses &
Synthesis
Feed
Forward
Previous
Experience
Feedback
Decision
(Hypothesis)
Feed
Forward
Action
(Test)
Unfolding
Interaction
With
Environment
Feedback
Note how orientation shapes observation, shapes decision, shapes action, and in turn is shaped by the
feedback and other phenomena coming into our sensing or observing window.
Also note how the entire “loop” (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing
process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
13
Why can’t we use this one?
Orient
Observe
Decide
Act
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
14
Why can’t we use this one?
Orient
It doesn’t work very
well in crises:
- Sequential
- Slow
- Easy to disrupt
- Quality and
quickness trade off
Decide
Observe
Sometimes good for
engineering-type
applications (no
human competition)
Act
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
15
So let’s use the real one
(It’s actually not that complicated)
Observe
Unfolding
Circumstances
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Feed
Observations Forward
Orient
Genetic
Heritage
Unfolding
Interaction
With
Environment
Act
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Cultural
Traditions
New
Information
Outside
Information
Decide
Analyses &
Synthesis
Feed
Forward
Previous
Experience
Feedback
Decision
(Hypothesis)
Feed
Forward
Action
(Test)
Unfolding
Interaction
With
Environment
Feedback
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
16
The trick is to start with Orientation
Orientation
Implicit
Guidance &
Implicit
Guidance &
Control
Cultural
Traditions
Control
Genetic
Heritage
Observations
Feed
Forward
Analyses/
Synthesis
Feed
Forward
Decision
Feed
Forward
Action
New
Information
Previous
Experiences
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
17
Orientation
 On-going process, not a picture
 Building snowmobiles – new concepts and ideas
– using analyses and synthesis
 By taking what we’ve learned and what’s going
on now
 And coming up with new strategies, plans, and
actions that match up better with reality
 In a conflict environment – where somebody
else is trying to do this to you!
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
18
Key points
 The side whose orientation best matches up with
reality will find opportunities to:
– Operate inside customers’ and competitors’ OODA
loops
– Seize the initiative
– Pump up own morale and hurt opponents’
– Think up, test, and exploit (or drop) ideas for new
products, services, tactics, and other responses while
they are still likely to be effective
 In other words: Understand a fast-developing
world while there’s still time to do something
about it
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
19
Implication
 We need to create mental images, views, or
impressions, hence patterns that match with
activity of world. [Organic Design, chart 16]
– In business, this means that our orientation needs to
stay better matched to reality than competitors’ and
customers’
– Which means that often we have a good idea of what
customers want before they do
– In crisis management and armed conflict, the
meaning is pretty obvious!
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
20
Implication
 We need to create mental images, views, or
impressions, hence patterns that match with
activity of world. [Organic Design, chart 16]
– In business, this means that our orientation needs to
stay better matched to reality than competitors’ and
customers’
In Boyd’s universe, conflict is a
– Which means that often we have a good idea of what
competition
between
customers
want beforenoveltythey do
generating
– In crisis systems,
managementor
and armed conflict, the
meaning islearning
pretty obvious!
equivalently,
systems.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
21
What about “action”?
 The idea is that the vast majority of the time,
actions should flow smoothly from orientation
via the “implicit guidance and control” link.
 This is the purpose behind the years of training
that elite military units and martial artists
undergo – building something the Germans
called Fingerspitzengefühl.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
22
Rommel believed that
in the subsequent
unpredictable
fighting, the training
of his troops and his
own quickness of
mind would bring
victory.
Douglas Fraser
Knight’s Cross
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
23
A little about Observation
 It is an active process:
– Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths,
weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions (POC 132)
 Nothing is more important:
– Without clear observation, you won’t be able to spot
mismatches before customers and competitors do
– And correct your orientation
– And take action to exploit the new situation
– While there’s still time to do something meaningful
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
24
When your objective perception is clear,
you don’t miss one out of ten thousand.
Zen Master Shoju Rojin,
quoted in Thomas Cleary,
The Japanese Art of War, p. 36.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
25
Then, what are “decisions”?
So actions flow smoothly
from orientation
Most decisions must be made
here – intuitively
Observe
Unfolding
Circumstances
Orient
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Feed
Observations Forward
Genetic
Heritage
Unfolding
Interaction
With
Environment
Act
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Cultural
Traditions
New
Information
Outside
Information
Decide
Analyses &
Synthesis
Feed
Forward
Decision
(Hypothesis)
Previous
Experience
Feedback
Feed
Forward
Action
(Test)
Unfolding
Interaction
With
Environment
Feedback
And communicated implicitly
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
26
The key idea is to emphasize implicit over
explicit in order to gain a favorable mismatch
in friction and time (i.e, ours lower than any
adversary) for superiority in shaping and
adapting to circumstances. [Organic Design,
22]
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
27
Intuitively
“Do not forget that actual combat is extremely
fast and demands that you act and react
without thinking. ‘Moving with the enemy’
means not permitting him to gather his
thoughts when in retreat.
“Either you will lead the enemy …
Or he will lead you.”
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
28
Then, what are “decisions”?
So actions flow smoothly
from orientation
Most decisions must be made
here – intuitively
Observe
Unfolding
Circumstances
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Feed
Observations Forward
Orient
Decide
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Cultural
Traditions
Genetic
Heritage
Analyses &
Synthesis
Feed
Forward
Explicit (stated) decisions are needed if:
New
Information
Decision
(Hypothesis)
Previous
Experience
Outside
• You
don’t have the mutual trust/common
Information
outlookUnfolding
for implicit decisions
Interaction
With
Environment
Act
Feedback
Feed
Forward
Action
(Test)
Unfolding
Interaction
With
Environment
• You can’t use implicit decisions
(e.g.,
Feedback
nuclear weapons)
communicated
implicitly
• You’re trying thingsAnd
(experiments)
- note
Boyd’s alternative labels - or in training
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
29
A hint to future leaders
Research shows that when dealing with a new,
complex, and confusing situation, good leaders
(and effective teams):
– begin by carrying out lots of small experiments
(decisions / actions) at a high tempo (see Dörner,
1996),
Explicit part of the loop - through
the Decision/Hypothesis and
Act/Test boxes
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
30
A hint to future leaders
Research shows that when dealing with a new,
complex, and confusing situation, good leaders
(and effective teams):
– begin by carrying out lots of small experiments
(decisions / actions) at a high tempo (see Dörner,
1996),
Explicit part of the loop - through
the Decision/Hypothesis and
The Prius is … the result of a development system that tries
Act/Test boxes
out many approaches to every problem, then gets the
winning concept to the customer very quickly with low
engineering cost, low manufacturing cost, and near perfect
quality. (Jim Womack, WSJ 2/13/2006)
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
31
Wrapping up the OODA “loop”
Quickly
understand
what’s going on
Observe
Know what to do
And be able to
do it
Decide
Orient
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Unfolding
Circumstances
Observations
Act
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Feed
Forward
Feed
Forward
Decision
(Hypothesis)
Feed
Forward
Action
(Test)
Key Points:
Outside
Information
Unfolding
Interaction
With
Environment
• When you’re doing OODA “loops” right,
Unfolding
accuracy and
speed improve together;
Feedback they don’t
Interaction
trade off. With
Environment
Feedback
• The main function of leadership is to build an
organization that gets better and better at these
things.
While learning
from the
experience
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
32
In summary: The OODA loop is a
model for manipulating time.
With a time advantage you can:
• Try more things
• Recover from mistakes and
learn more quickly
• Make opponents react to you
• Shape the situation
• Improve quality and cost,
simultaneously
• Make size irrelevant
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
33
A time-compressed company does the same thing as a
pilot in an OODA loop … It’s the competitor who acts on
information faster who is in the best position to win.
— George Stalk & Tom Hout,
Competing Against Time,
pp. 180-181.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
34
Military analysts say
we [US Navy SEALs]
are becoming skilled disciples of John Boyd. That
is, we execute the Boyd Loop—observation,
orientation, decision, action (OODA)—far better
and far quicker than our enemies.
— Dick Couch,
The Finishing School, p. 258
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
35
What type of organizations operate at
rapid OODA loop tempos?
The answer is: Organizations whose
leaders have, over time, imbued certain
qualities into the fiber of their very being.
Here are four of these qualities 
A climate for growing and focusing
creativity and initiative
 Fingerspitzengefühl - Superb competence,
leading to a Zen-like state of intuitive
understanding. Ability to sense when the time is
ripe for action. Built through years of
progressively more challenging experience.
Magic.
 Einheit - Has the connotation of "mutual trust"
and implies a common outlook towards business
problems. Built through shared experience.
Fingerspitzengefühl at the organizational level.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
37
A climate for growing and focusing
creativity and initiative
 Schwerpunkt - Any concept that gives focus
and direction to our efforts. In ambiguous
situations, answers the question, "What do I do
next?” Key function of leadership.
 Auftragstaktik – Convey to team members
what needs to be accomplished, get their
agreement to accomplish it, then hold them
strictly accountable for doing it - but don't
prescribe how. Requires very strong common
outlook.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
38
Before ending this presentation, I’d
like to highlight one last aspect of
Boyd’s organizational climate, a
different way of looking at Einheit –
oneness/cohesion.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
39
Common Outlook /
“Similar Implicit Orientation”
The “common outlook”
Message

According to General Gunther Blumentritt, such a scheme presupposes a
common outlook based upon “a body of professional officers who have
received exactly the same training during the long years of peace and with
the same tactical education, the same way of thinking, identical speech,
hence a body of officers to whom all tactical conceptions were fully clear.”

Furthermore, a la General Blumentritt, it presupposes “an officers training
institution which allows the subordinate a very great measure of freedom
of action and freedom in the manner of executing orders and which
primarily calls for independent daring, initiative and sense of
responsibility.”
Point

Without a common outlook superiors cannot give subordinates freedom-ofaction and maintain coherency of ongoing action.
Implication

A common outlook possessed by “a body of officers” represents a unifying
theme that can be used to simultaneously encourage subordinate initiative
yet realize superior intent.
— Boyd, Patterns of Conflict, 74
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
41
The “common outlook”
Message

According to General Gunther Blumentritt, such a scheme presupposes a
common outlook based upon “a body of professional officers who have
received exactly the same training during the long years of peace and with
the same tactical education, the same way of thinking, identical speech,
hence a body of officers to whom all tactical conceptions were fully clear.”

Furthermore, a la General Blumentritt, it presupposes “an officers training
institution which allows the subordinate a very great measure of freedom
of action and freedom in the manner of executing orders and which
primarily calls for independent daring, initiative and sense of
responsibility.”
Point

Without a common outlook superiors cannot give subordinates
freedom-of-action and maintain coherency of ongoing action.
Implication

A common outlook possessed by “a body of officers” represents a unifying
theme that can be used to simultaneously encourage subordinate initiative
yet realize superior intent.
— Boyd, Patterns of Conflict, 74
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
42
Einheit: Common Outlook
 Composed of four main elements:
– Shared code of moral and ethical behavior
– Agreed framework for how things are done
– Base of experience working together
Values
Doctrine
Teamwork
– Common appreciation of leadership’s overall goals
(“commander’s intent” / Schwerpunkt) and progress
towards reaching those goals
Mission
“But at the core of the Linux and Toyota communities are rules
about three entirely different things: how individuals and small
groups work together; how and how widely, they communicate;
and how leaders guide them toward a common goal.”
— Philip Evans and Bob Wolf, Collaboration Rules,
Harvard Business Review, July-August 2005., 3
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
43
What you do with Einheit [Organic
Design, Chart 23]

Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder
interaction with external world.
Instead

Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are
given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each
other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing
projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar
images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an
organic whole.
Why?

A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will
allow them to:
–
Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:
–
Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to:
–
Get inside adversary’s O-O-D-A loops, thereby:
–
Magnify adversary’s friction and stretch-out his time (for a favorable mismatch in
friction and time), thereby:
–
Deny adversary the opportunity to cope with events/efforts as they unfold.
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
44
Doctrine
Teamwork
Values
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
45
Doctrine
Teamwork
Mission
Values
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
46
T
www.jaddams.com
(c) Chet Richards, 2008
47