Transcript Document

Job Retention and Skills Analysis among
Newly Hired Workers in Montana
Presented at the C2ER/LMI Institute Annual Conference
June 10th, 2015
Amy Watson
Economist
MT Dept. of Labor and Industry
Hiring the Right Workers
New Hire Retention Rates, 2006 to 2009
Percent of Workers Remaining with Employer After Hire
After One Quarter
After Four Quarters
Montana
Wyoming
Montana
Wyoming
2006
66%
63%
24%
26%
2007
64
64
22
26
2008
63
64
24
27
2009
67
67
A new hire is a worker that is receiving wages from that business for the first
quarter since 2000.
Turnover of New Hires 2009
New Hire Employment Duration by
Industry
Financial Activities
Professional, Management, and Information Services
Only 1 Quarter
2 Quarters
31%
23%
23%
31%
21%
14%
11%
12%
12%
Trade and Transportation
26%
35%
Education and Health Care
27%
33%
Manufacturing
27%
31%
Mining and Utilities
27%
34%
15%
Other Services
28%
32%
20%
11%
9%
Public Administration
28%
34%
18%
12%
8%
3 Quarters
Leisure Activities
4 Quarters
Administration and Support
Over 1 Year
21%
Construction
Agriculture
33%
20%
21%
18%
37%
39%
41%
46%
12%
10%
33%
27%
9%
14%
10%
11%
12%
18%
38%
7%
14%
9% 4%
6% 4%
16%
7% 3%
16%
6% 4%
More Information Required a Survey
Observation: Low job retention rates
• Varies by season and industry
• Likely to vary by worker demographics
1. Is it a problem?
• Good worker turnover versus bad turnover
• Cost to public assistance and worker training programs
2. Are there certain characteristics or skills
associated with job retention / wage progression?
Possible Job Match Outcomes
Position was Seasonal or Temporary
Both worker and employer are better off.
Job Retention: No
Skill Shortage: No
Worker Leaves for Better Options
Worker better off; employer’s welfare
depends on costs of hire vs. gains from
work provided.
Job Retention: No
Skill Shortage: No
Worker is Fired
Both worker and employer are worse off.
Worker Remains Employed
Both worker and employer better off.
Job Retention: No
Skill Shortage: Yes
Job Retention: Yes
Skill Shortage: No
Things other than Skills that Matter to
Job Retention
• Worker education and training level
• Matching was done with available records from education and labor
agencies, but 71% of new hires had missing education information.
• Age (experience), gender, race, veteran status
• Difficulty obtaining driver’s license data
• Some matching with Montana jobs database indicated new hires
were younger than workers overall.
• Job characteristics: wage, benefits, full-time status
• Employer characteristics: provide training to workers
Survey Details
• Initial funding was provided by a competitive grant.
• Sample drawn from newly hired workers based on UI wage records.
• Sent to both private and public businesses.
• 94% to private sector, 5.4% to local government, 0% to federal government
• Not sent to Public Administration Industry or private household
workers.
• After 1st Panel, excluded those earning less than $150.
Response Rates and Number Mailed
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
3,950
740
1,000
644
300
800
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
New Hire Job Outcomes After Two
Quarters (Same Employer)
Other/ Unknown
4%
Laid off for Economic
Reasons
2%
Seasonal or
Temporary Work
14%
Still Working
41%
Let go due to poor
performance
8%
Not New Hire
5%
Worker Left
Voluntarily*
26%
*3% had poor skill ratings.
Job Outcomes of Newly Hired Workers,
Two Quarters after Hire, by Job Type
Outcome
Temporary or
Seasonal Workers
Permanent Full-Time
Permanent PartTime
Still Working
24%
46%
49%
Poor Performance
5%
10%
8%
Temporary or
Seasonal Position
49%
n.a.
n.a.
Voluntary Leave
20%
20%
38%
*
2%
3%
Economic Reasons
Job Outcomes (Any Employer)
Seasonal and
Unemployed
7%
Unknown and Employed
3%
80% Employed
by some
Employer
Seasonal
and
Employed
7%
Unknown/ Other and
Unemployed
1%
Laid Off and
Employed
1%
Let Go and Still
Unemployed
2%
Let Go and Employed
6%
Employed
41%
Not a New Hire
5%
Left and Employed
17%
Left and Still Unemployed
10%
43% had Wage
Increases
Likelihood of Wage Increase by Job
Outcome
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Employed
Fired and Employed
Laid Off and
Employed
Left and Employed
Preliminary data – not tested for significance.
Seasonal and
Employed
1st Question: Is it a problem?
• While only 41% are with the same employer, 80% are
re-employed elsewhere.
• Employers may still have losses for hiring and training costs.
• Employees may have costs in transitional work.
• Mostly concerned with the 20% of new hires that are
unemployed after being hired two quarters ago.
• Voluntary leave (10%) – School? Retirement? Left State?
• Seasonal (7%)
• Fired or laid off and still unemployed (3%) -- Retraining?
What Characteristics/ Skills are Associated with Job
Retention/ Wage Progression?
Service Orientation/ Customer
Service
Critical Thinking
Reading Comprehension
Operating Equipment
Communication
Following Instructions
Time Management
Safety
Actively helping people and providing customer service
Using logic and reasoning to identify approaches to problems
Understanding written sentences and paragraphs
Controlling operations of equipment or systems
The ability to communicate effectively with others
The ability to follow oral or written instructions
Ability to manage time and stay on task
The ability to maintain a safe work environment
Job-Specific Technical Skills
Skills specific to an occupation, such as drafting, special software, installation,
maintenance, etc.
Work Ethics
Shows up on time, honest, positive attitude, appropriate personal appearance
Number Skills
Adding, subtracting, division, multiplication, fractions, statistics
Physical Skills
The use of physical strength and/ or stamina, skill in using one's hands
What Skills are Important to
Employers?
Work Ethic
99%
1%
Following Instructions
98%
2%
Communication
95%
4%
Time Management
95%
4%
Safety
88%
Critical Thinking
83%
Service Orientation/ Customer Service
72%
Reading Comprehention
70%
Physical
68%
Operating Equipment
12%
12%
17%
17%
63%
Number
17%
61%
Job-Specific Technical Skills
10%
20%
30%
Neither
Preliminary not weighted results.
50%
60%
Unimportant
70%
6%
17%
14%
15%
18%
26%
40%
4%
20%
21%
54%
0%
Important
9%
21%
80%
90%
100%
Skill Importance Varies by Occupation
Skill
Important to
Less Important or Unimportant to
Work Ethic
All Occupations
Customer Service
Sales and Related Occupations
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
Production Occupations
Critical Thinking
Legal and Management Occupations
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations
Reading
Comprehension
Legal and Healthcare Practitioners Occupations
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Protective Services
Operating
Equipment
Installation and Repair, Production, and
Computer Occupations
Community and Social Services
Safety
Protective Service, Construction and
Extraction, Production Occupations
Legal
Job-Specific
Technical Skills
Healthcare Practitioners, Computer and
Mathematical, Architecture and Engineering
Transportation and Material Moving
Protective Services
Number Skills
Management, Architecture and Engineering
Building and Grounds Workers
Percent of Workers with Inadequate
Skills
Skill
Retained Workers
Poor Performance
*
35.6%
Critical Thinking
6.3%
50.2%
Operating Equipment
0.9%
14.9%
Communication
5.1%
34.5%
Following Instructions
5.1%
61.1%
Time Management
5.9%
43.5%
Safety
*
11.4%
Job-Specific Technical Skills
*
24.9%
4.9%
46.5%
*
9.8%
Service Orientation/ Customer Service
Work Ethics
Physical Skills
Preliminary based on first two panels.
QUESTIONS?
MORE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT
WWW.LMI.MT.GOV
Amy Watson
[email protected]
406-444-3245