Transcript Document

Understanding Consumers and
Markets through Research
x461.1
Matt Disston
714-356-6538
[email protected]
Understanding Consumers and
Markets Through Research
"The best teachers are those that show you
where to look, but don't tell you what to see."
-- Alexandra Trenfor
Grading Rubric
•
•
•
•
Midterm exam
Final exam
Attendance/Participation
Proposal
18%
22%
10%
50%
______
100%
Code of Conduct
• Code of Conduct
• All participants in the course are bound by the University of California
Code of Conduct, found at http://www.ucop.edu/ethics-compliance-auditservices/_files/stmt-stds-ethics.pdf
• Academic Honesty Policy
• The University is an institution of learning, research, and scholarship
predicated on the existence of an environment of honesty and integrity. As
members of the academic community, faculty, students, and
administrative officials share responsibility for maintaining this
environment. It is essential that all members of the academic community
subscribe to the ideal of academic honesty and integrity and accept
individual responsibility for their work.
Code of Conduct
Academic Honesty (continued)
• Academic dishonesty is unacceptable and will not be tolerated at the
University of California, Irvine. Cheating, forgery, dishonest conduct,
plagiarism, and collusion in dishonest activities erode the University's
educational, research, and social roles.
• Students who knowingly or intentionally conduct or help another student
engage in dishonest conduct, acts of cheating, or plagiarism will be subject
to disciplinary action at the discretion of UC Irvine Extension.
Disability Services
• Disability Services
•
•
•
•
If you need support or assistance because of a disability, you may be
eligible for
accommodations or services through the Disability Service Center at UC
Irvine. Please
contact the DSC directly at (949) 824-7494 or TDD (949) 824-6272. You can
also visit the
DSC’s website: http://www.disability.uci.edu/. The DSC will work with your
instructor to
make any necessary accommodations. Please note that it is your
responsibility to initiate
Proposal
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Summary
Background
Objectives
Research Approach or Scope of Work
Time, cost and critical path chart (cpm)
Technical Appendix
1. Secondary data
2. Focus Group Script
3. Questionnaire for the survey
Proposal
• Grading rubric
– Format
• Have you included all the sections?
– Organization
• Are the sections in order and complete?
– Content
• Could I do this research from the information provided?
– Comprehension
• Have you conveyed to me the approach needed to
answer the management objective?
Proposal
Summary
• Summarize the purpose of the proposal
• Answer why this research will achieve the
objectives
• Target audience for the Summary is the Vice
President of Marketing
• Provide total cost estimate and time require to
complete
• Write this section last
Proposal
Background
• Describe the market situation
• What is the product?
• Why is this product/service perceived as being a
good idea by management?
• Who are the customers?
• Who is the competition?
• Are there any special characteristics of this
product or market?
• SWOT
Proposal
Objectives
• What are the management objectives?
• How will the research tasks generate useful
information?
• What are the most important “researchable
questions” the research will answer once it is
complete?
Proposal
Research Approach/Scope of work
• This is a detailed, step by step list of tasks that describe the
work to be completed
• Specify the product of each task – For example:
– Task 1. Meet with the client – At the outset of the research we
will meet with the client to clarify the research to be completed. The
product of this task will be a scoping memo which specifies any requests
for information and specifies any decision points for the client throughout
the research effort.
• The Research Approach will have 5 or 6 tasks:
–
–
–
–
–
Task 1. Meet with the client
Task 2. Secondary research
Task 3. Focus Group
Task 4. Intercept Survey
Task 5. Analysis
Proposal
Time, Cost and CPM
• Construct a budget based on the hours you
expect to spend on each task
• Establish a billing rate for each employee
position
• Provide an estimate of the number of hours,
by employee for each task
• Each task should have a subtotal of the total
budget
• CPM chart should illustrate when each will be
undertaken and in what order
Critical Path Method -- CPM
Task
Week 1
Meet with
Client
Secondary
Data Search
Week 3
Week 4
X
X
X
XXXX
X
Focus Group
Week 2
XX
XXXXXX
Decision
Point
Meeting
Week 6
X
XXXXX
X
Intercept
Interviews
(500)
Analysis
Week 5
XX
X
XXXXX
X
XXXXX
X
XXXXX
Proposal
Technical Appendix
• Examples of the secondary research you found
on your topic
• Focus group script – Introduction, definitions,
30 – 40 questions grouped by topic
• Questionnaire – description of methodology
20 – 30 questions
Marketing Research
Definition
• Market research is the formalized process of
obtaining information to be used in marketing
decisions.
• Product: Information!
– not decisions,
– not a marketing plan,
– not a SWOT,
– not a new business
Market Research
Vocabulary
•
•
– Product
– Price
•
– Placement
•
– Promotion
•
• Market share
•
• Market segment
•
• Measures of central tendency
•
– Mean
•
– Median
•
– Mode
• 4Ps
Economics
Per capita
Rank order
Primary data
Secondary data
Experimental data
Segmentation
Targeting
Positioning
Marketing “pain”
Market Research
The Environment
Market Research
Process -- MIS
Research Schematic:
Internal Information
Marketing Research
Department
Marketing Environment
External Information
Organized
Information
Decisions
Guidance
Recurrent
Monitoring
MIS
Marketing Manager
Requested
Requests and Refinement
Decision Support System
• Provides necessary information at the time a
decision is made
• Incorporates business judgment in the form of
business/computer models
• Provides output to the decision maker based
on their input and the input of others in the
company
• Example: Salesman’s Ipad at the point of sale
Decision Support
• Understanding your own company?
– Computer models/pro forma
• Understanding customers?
– Why do companies fail in China
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/130918/why-big-americanbusinesses-fail-china
– How would you research this question?
• What should these companies have known?
• How would you find this information?
• Primary, secondary and experimental data
General Research Process
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Establish the objective with the client – select the marketing
opportunity/problem -- What is the customer’s “marketing pain”?
Express the objective(s) in terms of “researchable questions”
Agree on the measurements to use and the information needed to
answer the “researchable questions” – what is the research design
Determine how to collect the information -- Data collection
methodology
Design the data collection forms – questionnaire, competitor product
specification sheets
Determine the sampling method/collect data
Analyze the data
Write the report
Marketing Research – Methods
http://www.dmgnet.com/uci/lectures/Market Research Process.pdf
Case 1
• What do you need to
start a business?
– Money?
– A plan?
– A product?
– Marketing research?
– You need A Customer!
– No
– No
– No
– No (Nice try!)
Case 1
• Find similarities:
– Who uses the product?
– What similar characteristics describe them?
– When are they a customer?
– What are the conditions of the purchase?
– How did they discover the product?
– How could they become your customers?
– Why didn’t everyone purchase?
Case 1
I am a potential research client. I have developed a new
design for a sport boat. It is called a Carabelli 30. I am
manufacturing these boats in Brazil. I would like to expand
my market.
Carabelli 30
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfZm-y9YkyU
• Researchable Questions-– Should I export them to the United States?
– What research (information) do you recommend I have to make
this decision?
– How do you propose to find it?
Case 1
• Start with secondary information.
– Sources:
• Internal (4P’s)
– What are the specifications of the product?
» Price
» Cost
» Features
» How is it manufactured?
» What are the strategic relationships to make the product?
– Where is it sold?
– How is it currently promoted?
– What are the objectives of the management team?
Case 1
• External
– What are the characteristics of the customers who bought the
product?
» How do they use it?
» How much did they pay?
» What is the “value” they see?
» Is there market segmentation?
– What companies are the competitors?
» Price, placement, promotion
– What suppliers are required to build it and what are their
requirements?
– Are there governmental/export issues?
3 Conceptions of Marketing
• The production concept: consumers will buy goods that are
widely available and inexpensive; focus is on improving efficiency
in production & distribution
• The selling concept: consumers will not buy enough of your
product if you leave them alone; focus on advertising & contact
with potential customers
• The marketing concept: consumers will buy your products if
you identify their needs & satisfy those needs better than
competitors.
Source: Kotler, Philip, John Bowen, and James C. Makens. Marketing for
Hospitality and Tourism
Errors in Research Design
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Surrogate information error
Measurement error
Experiment error
Frame error
Population specification error
Sample error
Selection error
Non-response error
Three Types of Data
Data Type
Benefit
Disadvantage
Primary
•
•
Specific to your questions
Specific to your target
market
Proprietary data
Researcher controls timing
of data
•
•
Expensive
Takes time
Useful in exploratory
research
Inexpensive
Available now
•
May not be exactly what
you need – wrong time,
location or interval
Probably is old data
Can show causality
Deeper description of the
variables
•
•
•
•
Secondary
•
•
•
Experimental
•
•
•
Very expensive
Requires absolute control
of the variables – difficult
Secondary Data
Forty Years of Music Distribution
Secondary Data and the Internet
• The Internet
– Sputnik – October 1957
• ARPA
• 1960s technical papers
– 1969 UCLA, SRI, Univ of Utah, UC Santa Barbara
• ftp
– 1972 – Ray Tomlinson – Email (@)
• V.A. Shiva Ayyadurai –1978 age 14 for Univ of Medicine,
NJ (Owns “EMAIL”)
– 1978-79 Vinton Cerf – TCP/IP
The Internet
(continued)
• 1970s Proliferation of networks
– ARPANET – scientific/military
– USENET – bulletin boards
– THEORYNET – academic
– ALOHANET/PRNET – radio
– BITNET – general use (1981)
The Internet
(continued)
• 1980s
– 1981 - 1983 TCP/IP cutover
– 1984 – DNS
• .com, .edu, .net, .org, .gov, .mil
– 1985 – WELL
– 1986 – NSFNET – backbone created 56K
– 1988 – backbone upgraded to 1.5 mps
• IRC chat invented by Jarkko Oikarinen
– 1989 ARPANET ceases
The Internet
(continued)
• 1990s
– 1991 – WWW – Tim Berners Lee
– 1993 – Internic created
– 1993-94 Mosaic
• Marc Andreessen
–
–
–
–
Netscape w/ Silicon Graphics
1997 IE – Browser wars
1999 – Netscape sold to AOL $4.2 B
Adreessen Horowitz – Twitter, Foursquare, Pinterist, Skype,
Facebook, Groupon and Zynga
– 1995 – JAVA, Streaming technologies
The Internet
(continued)
– 1990s – Gopher, Archie, Veronica, Jughead
– 1994-95 Geographic domains
– 1995 – Online services, ISP
• Compuserve
• Prodigy
• AOL
–
–
–
–
–
–
1996 – Internet2
1997 – 99 E-commerce, Etrade,
2000 – IPv6
2003 – First online election – Switzerland
2003 -- 09 Countries tax the Internet
2005+ -- Social networking
The Internet
• Business Models – Front end/back end decisions
– Advertising
• Pop ups
• Banners
• Ads
– Pay for content
– Membership
– Software reliant
– Internet service
The Internet
• Gathering information – Depends on business model
– Survey
– Observation
• Page hits
• Downloads
• Cookies
– Input Data Gathering
• Registration – Personal data/email
• Orders
The Internet
Secondary Data
• Marketing Research – Methods
http://www.dmgnet.com/uci/lectures/Market%20Research%20Process.pdf
• USC Internet Resources
http://www.sc.edu/beaufort/library/pages/bones/bones.shtml
• Brooklyn College Internet Resources
http://depthome.brooklyn.cuny.edu/economics/webresch.htm
• How to develop an Internet search strategy - UC
Berkeley http://www.lib.berkeley.edu/TeachingLib/Guides/Internet/Strategies.html
• What cookies are on your machine?
– How do you Opt Out?
The Internet
Secondary Data
• Digital Music News – 40 Years of Music
http://www.dmgnet.com/uci/powerpoint/109sx.gif
• Google Analytics – DMG site
– Videos
– Tools
• Google Control – Skewing of searches
– http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-google-skewed-search-results-1426793553
• The problems with “Big Data”
– http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/21a6e7d8-b479-11e3-a09a00144feabdc0.html#axzz2xd2J0Z8q
Case Study 2
• Management objective:
– Open a new store in LA and increase Hispanic penetration
• Internal
– What is the client’s “trade area”?
– How much sales is requires
• Find a highly Hispanic area in LA
– Where/what is “highly Hispanic”
• Census
• Average for the County
• Find higher percentages
Case Study 2
• What is the population in the trade area?
• What is the Income?
• What is the sales potential – “Purchasing
Power”
• What is the sales potential?
• Existing sales in the trade area?
• What is the supportable size of store?
Focus Group
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Meet with the client
Create Script, get it approved
Create screener
Recruit attendees
Demographic survey upon arrival
Conduct focus group – record
Pay incentive
Write summary report within 48 hours
Measurement
• Measurement is the assignment of numbers
to characteristics according to rules.
– Operational
– Conceptual
– Range of variables
•
•
•
•
True characteristics
Additional stable charactersitics
Short term characteristics
Situational characteristics
Experimentation
• Examples of simple experimental design:
– Experiments require a dependent and independent variable
Measure A
Before and After
After Only
Before and After
with Control **
e
Simulated Before &
After
e
After Only with
e
Control **
c
**Solomon 4 Group
c
c
Experiment
Measure B
Quantitative Research
• Tactical vs Strategic research
– Tactical – aimed at a specific issue. Answers a specific
question.
• What percentage of our customers are over 21?
• Do people prefer red or green?
– Strategic – may not have specific answer to test. Aimed at
identifying the trends, characteristics and similarities in the
data.
• Looking for trends in a database – What are the biases in the data?
• What are existing customers doing?
• What are the shopping “bundles” our product experiences?
Quantitative Research
Planning the Questionnaire
• Structured vs Unstructured
– Related to the amount of freedom the respondent has to answer
• Direct vs Indirect
– Related to the amount of knowledge the respondent has about the
topic of the research
• Eg: Types of questions:
• Structured – Direct
– Multiple choice question where the respondent knows the topic
• Structured – Indirect
– Multiple choice where the respondent does NOT know the topic
• Unstructured – Direct
– Open ended question where the respondent knows the topic
• Unstructured – Indirect
– Psycho-analysis
Quantitative Research
Primary Data
• Survey
– Decide the type of survey method:
•
•
•
•
Telephone
Intercept
Mail
Computer
– Determine sample
•
•
•
•
Domain
Unit
Extent
Timing
– Questionnaire development
– Field study plan
– Tabulation plan
Quantitative Research
• Observation
– May be more accurate than a survey
– Intrusive
• Disney electronic tracking
http://www.nbcnews.com/travel/travelkit/disney-world-track-visitors-wirelesswristbands-1B7874882
• Database
–
–
–
–
–
–
Subscription databases
Associations archives
Membership
Check data
Credit card data
Customer data (from sales dept and accounts)
Quantitative Research
• Sampling
• Scaling
–
–
–
–
Nominal
Ordinal
Interval
Ratio
• Attitudinal scales
–
–
–
–
–
Comparative scales
Likert
Stapel
Paired alternatives
Constant sum
Survey Data Set
Name
Age
Sex
Household
Number of
Beers Drunk
Income
Children
Last Week
Activities
When
Purchased
TV Sports
Favorite
Brands
Bar B Que
Outdoor
1 John
37
M
$41,250
2
6
2 Mabel
46
F
$62,837
6
14
3 Thelonius
62
M
$22,555
0
16
4 Buzz
42
M
$108,425
2
6
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
5 Muffy
41
F
$128,016
1
24
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
6 Red
55
M
$167,880
8
36
7 Griff
24
M
$66,666
0
48
Yes
Yes
8 Colton
33
M
$55,000
3
12
Yes
Yes
9 Terry
52
F
$50,000
1
0
10 Milton
22
M
$600,000
4
4
Yes
11 Roger
39
M
$400,000
2
30
Yes
Yes
12 Richard
38
M
$16,000
2
30
Yes
Yes
13 Mary
36
F
$38,000
2
12
14 Ginny
44
F
$72,725
3
16
15 Ferlinghetti
72
M
$38,000
1
6
Average
$124,490
17.33
Yes
Other
Yes
Yes
Bud
Job Description
Coors
Other
Yes
Vet
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Stay at home mom
Yes
Musician
Yes
Real estate developer
Yes
Stock broker
Yes
Contractor
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Car mechanic
Yes
Teacher
Yes
Clerk
Yes
Yes
Computer programmer
Yes
Yes
Doctor
Yes
Yes
Framer
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Aerobics Instructor
Yes
Flight instructor
Yes
8
7
8
Yes
6
8
4
Poet
9
Market Research Analysis
Nominal
Gender
Number
Male
Female
Total
Percentage
10
67%
5
33%
15
100%
Ordinal
Income Rank
Respondent
1
Milton
2
Roger
3
Red
4
Muffy
5
Buzz
Market Research Analysis
Interval
Income
Number
$0-24,999
2
14%
$25 – 49,999
3
20%
$50 – 74,999
5
33%
$75 – 99,999
0
0%
$100 +
5
33%
15
100%
Total
Percent
Market Research Analysis
Ratio
Beers Drunk
Number
Percent
0-3
2
14%
4-6
3
20%
7-14
3
20%
15-24
3
20%
25+
4
26%
15
100%