Transcript Development priorities of Sri Lanka

Development Priorities of Sri Lanka
Dr. B.M.S. Batagoda
Director General
Department of National Planning
Recent Trends in Government Finance and the Desired Path
Revenue (Rs. Mn)
900,000
17.0
16.8
16.6
16.6
800,000
16.5
16.3
700,000
16.0
15.8
600,000
15.5
15.2
500,000
14.9
14.9
15.0
400,000
14.5
14.5
655,259
300,000
817,220
565,051
699,644
477,833
200,000
100,000
14.6
14.0
379,747
211,282
234,296
261,888
276,465
311,473
13.5
0
13.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Revenue
2006
% of GDP
2007
2008
2009
2010
% of GDP
Rs. Mn
15.5
Revenue -Medium Term Direction
1,600,000
15.0
14.7
14.6
15.2
16.0
1,400,000
14.0
1,200,000
12.0
1,000,000
10.0
800,000
8.0
1,495,000
1,289,000
600,000
6.0
1,094,000
911,000
400,000
817,220
4.0
200,000
2.0
0
0.0
2010
2011
2012
Revenue
2013
% of GDP
2014
% of GDP
Rs. Mn
14.0
Composition of Government Revenue
Rs. Bn.
Description
2010
2011
Revised
2012
Estimate
Revenue & Grants
834.0
1,039.0
1,115.0
Tax
724.7
916.1
987.1
Income Tax
135.6
218.4
161.2
VAT / NBT
266.0
257.4
303.2
Excise Tax
129.9
134.3
172.6
Import Tax
64.2
99.1
101.0
129.0
206.9
249.1
92.5
104.9
107.9
Profits/ Dividends
31.3
22.9
34.0
Fines, Fees and Charges
22.9
35.8
25.5
Social Security Contribution
11.1
15.3
15.6
Other
27.2
30.9
32.8
16.9
18.0
20.04
Other
Non Tax
Grant
Recurrent Expenditure (Rs. Mn.)
1,000,000
25
900,000
21.6
20.2
20.9
800,000
18.4
18.6
18.7
20
18.6
18.2
17.4
700,000
16.9
16.7
15
% of GDP
Rs. Mn
600,000
937,000
500,000
879,575
400,000
10
743,710
622,758
300,000
547,960
200,000
389,679
5
443,350
334,694
100,000
330,847
254,279
303,361
0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Recurrent Expenditure
2006
% of GDP
2007
2008
2009
2010
Recurrent Expenditure - Medium Term Direction
1,600,000
18
16.7
15.7
16
1,400,000
14.7
13.5
1,200,000
13.2
14
12
1,000,000
800,000
1,385,000
8
1,243,000
600,000
937,000
1,017,000
1,095,000
6
400,000
4
200,000
2
0
0
2010
2011
2012
Recurrent Expenditure
2013
% of GDP
2014
X of GDP
Rs. Mn
10
Composition of Government Expenditure
Rs. Bn.
Description
Total Expenditure
2010
2011
Revised
2012
Estimate
1,751
2,013
2,220
951
1,017
1,109
311
331
355
Pension
92
99
108
Transfers to Public Institutions
28
30
35
Establishment Cost /Subsidies
172
202
241
Government Loan Interest
348
355
370
800
996
1,111
Investment / Development
304
425
501
Loan Repayment
453
499
570
43
72
40
Recurrent
Salary and Wages
Capital
Other
Government Expenditure - Welfare
Rs. Mn.
Description
Pension for Disabled Soldiers
2010
2011
Revised
2012
Estimate
10,400
12,500
14,000
Samurdhi Assistance
9,200
9,300
9,300
School Uniforms
1,000
1,500
2,000
School Text Books
1,900
2,400
2,500
School Seasons
1,400
1,400
1,370
250
300
320
13,500
15,000
18,000
9,940
10,600
7,880
870
1,500
1,580
Food Relief
6,600
6,300
3,200
Nutritional Pogramme for
School Children
2,470
2,800
3,100
Scholarships
Free Drugs/Medicine
Nutritional Programmes
Thriposha Programme
Government Expenditure – Welfare cont/Rs. Mn.
Description
Assistance for Internally Displaced People
2010
2011
Revised
2012
Estimate
1,300
1,000
300
740
850
900
Assistance to Differently Able Persons
75
403
404
Assistance to Elders
52
63
66
178
250
240
19
20
20
390
540
650
2,250
1,900
1,800
52,594
58,026
59,750
Assistance to Handicapped
Assistance to Children
Fresh Milk (2-5years)
Poshana Manpetha
Public Assistance
SLTB Uneconomical Routes Subsidy
Total
Government Expenditure – Development
Subsidy
Rs. Mn.
Description
Fertilizer Subsidy
2010
2011
Revised
2012
Estimate
23,000
31,300
35,000
-
1,364
3,000
Seeds Purchasing
161
276
174
New Comprehensive Rural Credit Scheme
631
340
300
Agro Livestock Development Loan Scheme
52
-
50
5
1,010
2,025
1,369
2,560
895
827
845
504
-
100
351
26,000
37,800
42,300
Paddy Purchasing Programme
SME Development
Renewable Energy for Rural Economic
Development
Micro Finance
National Agri Business Development Programme
Total
Budgetary Savings
(Current Account Surplus/Deficit) (Rs. Mn)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
0.0
-20,000
-63,604
-40,000
-0.5
-57,706
-70,126
-88,450
-1.0
-118,874
-60,000
Rs. Mn
-1.6
-179,931
-100,000
-2.0
-2.0
-120,000
-2.4
-140,000
-2.1
% of GDP
-1.5
-80,000
-2.5
-2.6
-3.0
-160,000
-3.5
-180,000
-3.7
-200,000
-4.0
Budgetory Savings (Current Account Surplus/Deficit) (Rs. Mn)
% of GDP
11
Medium Term Direction – 2012 is a Critical year
150,000
2.0
1.3
1.5
100,000
1.0
0.8
131,499
50,000
0.5
65,763
Rs. Mn
0.0
0
-470
-0.5
-0.8
-50,000
-1.0
-53,835
-118,874
-1.5
-100,000
-2.1
-2.0
-150,000
-2.5
2010
2011
2012
Budgetory Savings (Current Account Surplus/Deficit) (Rs. Mn)
2013
2014
% of GDP
% of GDP
0.0
Public Investment (Rs. Mn)
400,000
8.0
6.8
350,000
6.4
Rs. Mn
6.0
6.4
6.0
300,000
6.0
250,000
5.0
200,000
4.0
356,519
330,448
150,000
3.0
263,859
229,274
100,000
2.0
177,443
148,582
50,000
1.0
0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
Public Investment
2008
% of GDP
2009
2010
% of GDP
6.3
7.0
Public Investment -Medium Term Direction
700,000
7.0
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.2
500,000
5.0
400,000
4.0
638,000
300,000
% of GDP
6.0
Rs. Mn
600,000
3.0
556,000
482,000
200,000
356,519
2.0
390,000
100,000
1.0
0
0.0
2010
2011
2012
Public Investment
2013
% of GDP
2014
Budget Deficit
Budget Deficit
2005
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.0
-2.0
% of GDP
-4.0
-5.3
-6.0
-5.8
-6.2
-6.8
-7.0
-8.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
-9.9
Gross Borrowings (Rs. Mn)
1,200,000
25.0
20.7
1,000,000
19.2
19.3
20.0
18.1
17.3
16.4
16.2
800,000
16.4
16.2
16.4
15.9
355,786
327,878
600,000
% of GDP
Rs. Mn
129,650
15.0
181,227
97,697
10.0
75,180
400,000
87,638
78,299
47,170
646,851
573,009
200,000
27,370
590,960
47,316
199,745
180,439
2000
2001
5.0
257,137
264,993
264,983
2002
2003
2004
411,341
397,302
2006
2007
326,951
0
0.0
Domestic
2005
Foreign
% of GDP
2008
2009
2010
Government Debt (Rs. Mn)
5,000,000
120.0
4,500,000
103.2
105.6
102.3
102.3
96.9
100.0
4,000,000
90.6
87.9
85.0
81.4
86.1
81.9
3,500,000
80.0
2,500,000
60.0
4,590,245
% of GDP
RS. Mn
3,000,000
4,161,422
2,000,000
3,588,962
40.0
3,041,686
1,500,000
2,582,648
2,139,526 2,222,341
1,000,000
500,000
1,218,700
1,452,706
1,670,343
1,863,851
20.0
0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Government Debt (Rs. Mn)
2006
2007
% of GDP
2008
2009
2010
17
Government Debt -
Medium Term Direction
7,000,000
90.0
81.9
78.2
80.0
6,000,000
74.2
70.0
65.9
70.0
5,000,000
4,000,000
Rs. Mn
50.0
6,509,000
3,000,000
6,015,000
40.0
% of GDP
60.0
5,539,000
5,076,700
30.0
4,590,245
2,000,000
20.0
1,000,000
10.0
0
0.0
2010
2011
2012
Government Debt (Rs. Mn)
2013
% of GDP
2014
18
Debt Repayment (Rs. Mn)
600,000
14.0
12.0
12.0
500,000
10.7
10.6
78,184
10.0
400,000
8.8
8.6
8.3
10.0
114,716
9.2
8.6
8.4
300,000
% of GDP
Rs. Mn
8.0
121,609
64,114
6.0
45,989
6.0
21,360
34,425
200,000
401,296
4.0
33,041
37,057
247,536
100,000
27,921
81,244
252,165
258,720
203,347
185,083
23,282
389,672
2.0
147,740
130,786
56,844
0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Domestic
2005
Foreign
2006
2007
% of GDP
2008
2009
2010
19
Debt Repayment -
Medium Term Direction
700,000
9.0
8.4
115,000
7.6
7.5
150,000
107,000
7.0
6.5
500,000
78,184
8.0
6.1
70,000
6.0
400,000
Rs. Mn
5.0
4.0
300,000
490,000
200,000
389,672
420,000
415,000
450,000
% of GDP
600,000
3.0
2.0
100,000
1.0
0
0.0
2010
2011
2012
Domestic
Foreign
2013
% of GDP
2014
20
Gradual Push on Investment
Government and Private Investment
26.2
30.0
21.1
25.0
21.6
% of GDP
20.0
15.0
5.5
10.0
6.6
2.6
5.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Government Investment
2008
2009
2010
Private Investment
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
The Road Map
The
Development
Policy
Framework of the Government –
“Sri Lanka Emerging Wonder of
Asia: Mahinda Chintana – Vision
for the Future”
Presents the country’s economic policy
strategies and actions for next six years.
Macro Fiscal Targets and Socio Economic outcomes (2012-2016)
Indicator
2012
2013
GDP (Rs. Bn)
7,405 8,513
Economic Growth (%)
8.0
8.2
Per Capita Income (US $)
3,179 3,638
Inflation – GDP Deflator (%)
5.5
5.2
Budget Deficit as a % of GDP
6.5
6.0
Total Government Debt as % of GDP
74.2% 70%
Total Investment as a % of GDP
29
30
Public Investment as a % of GDP
6.5
6.5
Exports (US $ Bn)
10.8 12.3
International Trade Turnover (US $ Bn)
28.6 32.1
International Services Income (Net)
(US $ Bn)
1.3
1.6
2014 2016
12,79
9,790
9
8.5
9
4,171 5,394
5.3
4.8
5.4
4.3
65.9% 65%
31
33
6.5
6.5
14
18
35.6 44.1
1.9
2.6
Contd.
Indicator
Earnings from Tourism (US $ Bn)
Remittances (US $ Bn)
Access to Electricity (%)
Access to Telecommunication (%)
Women in Labor Force (%)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Infant Mortality (per 1000 live births)
Maternal Mortality (per 100,000 live
births)
Poverty (%)
Primary School Enrollment (%)
Literacy Rate – (15 – 24 years) (%)
Computer Literacy Rate (%)
Malnutrition (%) of total population
Access to Clean Water (%population)
Private Investment as a % of GDP
2012 2013 2014 2016
0.7
0.8
1.8
2.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
7.0
100
100
100 100
90 92.5
95 100
34.0 35.5 37.0 40.0
4.3
4.0
3.7
3.2
8.6* 7.45
6.3
4
36
6.5
98.7
97.3
38.5
16.7
90
26
30
5.9
99
97.5
47.6
16.3
91
28
27
5.4
99.3
97.6
56.7
15.9
92
30
20
3.2
100
98
75
15
95
30
Sectoral Composition of GDP in 2000 , 2010
and projections for 2020
Success stories (2005 – 2010)
Projections
Success stories (2005 – 2010)
Projections
Infrastructure Development
towards making Sri Lanka,
a dynamic global hub
• Sri Lanka as a
–
–
–
–
–
Sri Lanka as a strategically
important economic centre
Naval
Aviation
Commercial
Energy
Knowledge hub
• Positions as the world’s
most treasured tourist
destination
Hubs
Sector-wise Public Investment
Electricity for All
Projections for Power and Energy Sector
Demand - Reserve and Supply
6000
5000
3000
2000
1000
20% reserve margin on demand
Electricity Demand
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
0
2010
MW
4000
Electricity Suppy
Contd.
Projections for Power and Energy Sector
Demand Forecasting
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
10,740
11715
12464
13402
14315
15238
16220
17168 18188
19257
20377
Electricity
Demand(MW)
2170
2356
2503
2688
2853
3035
3235
3435
3635
3835
4035
Required Energy
Capacity with
20% reserve
margin Demand
(MW)
2604
2827.2
3423.6
3642
3882
4122
4362
4602
4842
Electricity
Supply(MW)
2736
3787
4393
4938
4938
4938
4869
4797
4797
Gross Electricity
Generation
(GWh)
3003.6 3225.6
3842
3878
Targets of Road Sector
Target length of roads
Type
of Length
the roads (km)
2010
Road Sector Investments: 2011 – 2020
Length
(km)
2015
Length
(km)
2020
National
2,723
7,200
11,922
Provincial
1,706
4,000
8,500
Rural
20,000
30,000
40,000
Total
24,429
41,200
60,422
Towards a Modern road Network
Targets:
Targets in Railway Sector
Contd.
Targets in Railway Sector
Key Features
Unit
2005
2010
2014
Total Route
Total Track
Double Track
Electrified Track
km
km
km
km
1,447
1,561
131
0
1,447
1,640
138
0
1,500
1,890
60
75
Diesel-Multiple
Units (DMU)
No
90
87
100
512
550
722
600
750
No. of Passenger
Carriages
No. of Freight
Wagons
Projections to develop Sri Lanka as a Naval hub;
Projection of Container Traffic in Sri Lanka
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Container Traffic (TEUs
000)
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Projections to develop Sri Lanka as a Naval hub;
140000
120000
Total Cargo Handle (Mt 000)
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2016
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Projections to Develop Sri Lanka as an Aviation hub;
Key Features
BIA (2010)
6,000,000
BIA (Planed for
2014)
12,000,000
HIA (Planed for
2014)
1,000,000
Capacity
(Passengers/Annum)
Capacity
(Cargo - MT/Annum)
Terminals (International)
Terminals (Domestic)
Terminals
(Cargo)
Runways (Nos.)
Runways (Take-off)
(Length - m)
Runways (Landing)
(Length - m)
Runways (Landing)
(Width - m)
Jet Fuel Demand (l/day)
Fuel Storage Tanks
(Nos.)
Fuel Storage Capacity (l)
300,000
500,000
45,000
1
1
3
1
3,441
2
1
4
2
1
1
1
1
4,000
3,350
4,000
45
60
75
1,000,000
3
1,500,000
3
3
7,200,000
7,200,000
3,000,000
Contd.
Projections to Develop Sri Lanka as an Aviation hub;
Key
Features
Destinations
Fleet
Expansion
New
Bilateral
Agreements
2010
2011
2012
2013 2014
Sri Lankan
29
31
33
35
37
Mihin Lanka
8
8
9
10
12
Sri Lankan
15
20
22
24
26
Mihin Lanka
2
2
2
2
4
3
3
2
2
2
Contd.
Projections to Develop Sri Lanka as an Aviation hub;
Salient Features of Bus Transport
Key
Features
2007
2010
SLTB
Private
Fleet
(Average)
Operated
km (mn)
4,129
17,731 4,500 26,500 7,000 27,000
Passenger
km (mn)
14,727 33,309 16,274 40,178 17,900 48,836
305
607
SLTB
2014
341
Private
765
SLTB
398
Private
894
Telecommunication Sector
Expected Targets of telecommunications sector for the
Next Ten Years
Category
2010
2015
2020
Fixed access services (mn)
3.5
6
10
Mobile phones (mn)
15
17
19
Public pay phone (‘000)
7
12
15
Internet and e-mail(mn)
0.4
5
10
Telephone density (%)
(Mobile and fixed)
93
95
98
Targets in Water Sector
Industrial Sector water Requirement Projections (cubic meter
million)
Type of Water
Sources
Pipe Born Water by
NWSDB Managed
Schemes
Own Water supply
scheme
Recycled water
Total
Water quantity (m3 mn)
2010
2
2015
5
2020
10
803
817
771
805
16
838
87
868
Contd.
Targets in Water Sector
Total Water Requirement for Domestic and Industrial
Sectors (cubic meter million)
Type
2010 2015
2020
Domestic (m3 mn)
779
906
1015
Industries (m3 mn)
Total (Cu. Mt. mn)
805
838
868
1,584
1,744
1,883
Cumulative Water Supply Connections Provided by NWSDB
and CBO Managed Schemes (Projections)
year
2010
2015
2020
Number of pipe borne water
connections
1,803,000 2,345,000 3,192,000
Targets in Irrigation Sector
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2009
2010
Paddy
2020
OFC
Sugar cane
Expected sectoral water requirement
25,000
20,000
MCM
Ha Mn.
Irrigable Land requirements for Paddy, OFC and Sugar cane cultivations
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2010
Irrigated Agriculture
2020
Industry,Domestic & other
2030
Total
Strengthening the National Economy
Targets in Tourism Sector
Expected Foreign Exchange Earnings (US$ bn.)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Expected Foreign
Exchange Earnings
(US$ bn.)
2010
2016
2020
Number of expected Employment Opportunities 2016 - 2020
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Direct
2010
2016
2020
Indirect
Contd.
Targets in Tourism Sector
Tourist Arrivals – Growth expectations during the
next two years.(2011-2012)
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
2010 (Actual)
150,000
2011 (targets)
100,000
2012 (targets)
50,000
0
Targets in Agriculture Sector
Growth of Agriculture sector
12
Growth Rate (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Year
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Productivity (Kg/ha)
Production (mn mt)
Contd.
Paddy Production
8
6
4
2
0
Year
Productivity of Paddy lands
6000
4000
2000
0
Contd.
300
200
100
0
2005
2010
Year
Production
Imports
2015
Production and Imports details and trends of
green gram
('000 mt)
( '000 mt)
Production and Import details and
trends of Maize
400
60
40
20
0
2005
2010
Year
Production
Imports
2015
Contd.
('000 mt)
Production, Import details and trends of Soya
Bean
20
10
0
2005
2010
Year
Production
2015
Imports
Prodcution and Import of Black Gram
Metric tons
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2005
Production
2010
Year
2015
Imports
Contd.
Metric tons
Production and Imports of Cowpea
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2005
2010
Year
Production
2015
Imports
Production and Export of Vegetables
Metric tons
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2005
Production
2010
2015
Year Exports
Contd.
Production and Export of Pineapple
100000
50000
0
2009
Metric Tons
Metric tons
150000
600,000
2010
Production Year
2015
Export
Production and Export of Banana
400,000
200,000
0
2009
Production
2010
Year
2015
Export
Metric tons
Contd.
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Production and Export of Papaw
2009
Metric tons
150000
2010
Year
Production
2015
Export
Production and Export of Mango
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
Production Year
2015
Export
Targets in Fisheries Sector
Composition of Fish Production
Production '000 mt
1500
1000
Deep Sea
coastal
500
inland
0
2003
2005
2009
Year
2015
2020
Contd.
Targets in Fisheries Sector
Item
unit
2010
2014 Targets
Achievements
Marine Fish Production
mt. / year
296,000
620,000
Inland Fish Production
Mt./ year
52,000
80,000.
kg / person/year
17
23
Fishing Fleet-Multiday
No.
3,000
5,100
Modern Fishery Harbours (No.)
No.
08
17
percentage
25
15
Modern Hygienic Retail Sale Fish Markets
No
80
200
Fishing Grounds (Inland Water Bodies)
No.
-
12,000
Aquaculture Centres (Updated)
No.
04
07
percentage
0.2
1
Mt./year
19,800
30,800
625,000
2 million
Per Capita Fish Consumption
Post Harvest Losses
Ornamental Fish Export of total fish export
Fish Export
Total direct and Indirect Employment
Key targets in Livestock Sector
Indicator
2005
2009
2015
2020
Self sufficiency in milk (%)
15
33
55
100
Milk Production (mn. ltrs)
193
233
500
750
68,100
63,800
133
296
-
-
1.0 mn
1.5 mn
2.0 mn.
2.5 mn
60
80
150
300
Collecting centres
-
2542
5000
10,000
Processing centres
-
2563
5000
10,000
Imports of milk and milk
products (mt)
Imports value of milk and
milk products (US$ mn)
No. of cattle with high
production capacity
Chilling centres
33,375 500
Targets in Plantation Sector
Annual Rate of Replanting of major Plantation Crops
Sector
Present
Status
2009
Anticipated Achievement
2010-2015
2015-2020
Tea
0.5%
2%
3%
Rubber
< 1%
3%
5%
Coconut
< 1%
2%
3%
Expected Extent of Major Plantation Crops
Sector
2009
2015
2020
Tea (ha)
222,000
225,000
225,000
Rubber (ha)
120,000
165,000
230,000
Coconut (ha)
395,000
450,000
510,000
Production and Production Targets of Export Agricultural Crops
Export
Agricultural
crops
Cocoa
Production (mt)
2005
Target (mt)
2009
2015
2020
900
1,752
3,250
5,500
Cinnamon
14,450
14,599
19,500
25,000
Pepper
14,270
25,302
34,000
43,000
Cloves
6,080
3,789
5,000
6,500
Cardamoms
80
479
650
820
Nutmeg and
Mace
1,860
4,702
6,300
8,000
Targets in Industries Sector
Export Earnings Projections of Selected Leading Industries in 2015
5000
4500
4000
Apparel
3500
Tea
Export Earning (US$ Mn)
3000
Rubber and Rubber
based products
Diamonds, gems and
Jewellery
ICT/BPO/KPO
2500
2000
1500
Food and other
beverages
Spices and Allied
products
1000
500
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
US $ mn
Imports of Selected Commodities(2005 – 2020)
Human Resources Development
Targets of Education sector
Teacher Development Targets
2009
No. of teachers
215,916
225,000
74,531
125,000
134,213
100,000
Untrained non-graduates
11,083
0
Science teachers
12,444
27,000
Math teachers
12,890
27,000
English teachers
13,723
30,000
Graduate teachers
Trained non-graduates
Performance of Students at GCE O/L and A/L - 2005 to 2009 & 2020
Year
2020
2005
2009
2020
GEC A/L (percent qualified for
University Entrance)
59.2
60.3
75
GEC O/L (percent qualified for GCE
A/L)
47.7
52.5
65
Existing and Proposed Structures of A/L Subject Streams to
cater labor market demand
2010*
2015
A/L
Subject No.of
No.of
Streams
Students
%
Students
%
Enter in to G.C.E. A/L
150608
201500
Science Stream
34640
23
80600 40
Commerce
37652
25
60450 30
Arts
78316
52
36270 18
Technology streams
0
24180 12
Total Enter in to
G.C.E. A/L
150608
100
201500 100
Existing and Proposed Structures of University Intake for Different
academic Streams
Proposed Structure in
Current Structure in 2010
2016
No.of
No.of
Streams
students
%
students
%
General Science
Vet. &
Agriculture
5,556
26%
2,500
10%
1,137
5%
2,500
10%
Engineering
Medicine
Commerce/
Management
Art & Law
University
intake
1,652
2,231
8%
10%
6,250
3,750
25%
15%
4,312
6,653
20%
31%
6,250
3,750
25%
15%
21,541
100%
25,000
100%
• Present and Future Directions of HR Development
Key Health Indicators
Indicator
Present
2020
Percentage of total health budget allocated for preventive
services
10
40
Percentage of total population with E-health record card
-
100
Life expectancy at birth
76 yrs
72 yrs
86 yrs
80 yrs
Under 5 mortality rate
per 1000 lb
13.5
6.0
Infant mortality rate per 1000 lb
10.9
4.5
Maternal Mortality rate
per 1000 lb
0.39
0.2
Percent of births attended by skilled personnel
98
100
Coverage of antenatal care
(4 visits)
93
100
Medical doctors per 100,000 Population
60.2
100
Nurses per 100,000 Population
99.0
150
Male
Female
Towards a Caring Society
Expected Targets in Social Sector
Indicator
Reduce
proportion
of
population
below
the
national poverty line from (%)
2010
8.9
2014
5.36
2016
4.2
8.5
6.3
4
maternal mortality ( per
1000)
Primary school enrolment (%)
0.39
0.27
0.2
98
99.3
100
Women in labour force (%)
31.2
37
40
74
19
90
76
15.9
92
77
15
95
Infant mortality ( per 1000)
Life expectance(years)
Malnutrition (%)
Access to clean water(% of
population)
Elder Population
People over 80 years is now around 300,000 and is
on the rise. At least 30 percent need help
71
Environmental Aspects
in
Development Priorities
Environmental sector Targets
Issue
Deforestation
Indicator
Percentage of the forest
coverage of the
total land area
Percentage of the
protected areas of the total land area
Total waste collection
per day
2010
23
2015
28
60
14
20
35
4500
Mt.
7500
Mt.
9000 Mt.
Annual average of
particulate matter less than 10 micro
meters
64
40
30
Ground level
water pollution
Proportion of population
using improved drinking water(%)
87
94
100
Soil erosion
(Tones/ha/year)
Soil erosion in hilly
regions
160
60
10
Human Elephant
conflict
Increasing trend
of solid waste
generation
Air pollution
caused by fuel
emission (Micro
gram /m3)
2020
Forest cover targets -2010-2030
100
50
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Forest cover
2015
Number of Tourist
Arrivals and Income
Generation in Main
National Parks
1222
2014
732
1111
2013
665
1010
2012
604
920
2011
499
836
2010
454
630
2009
462
0
406
212
500
1000
Number of visitors 000'
1500
Annual Income- Rs mn
2000
2500
Ensuring Emerging Regional
Economies
Reduction of Regional Disparities
Provincial Share of GDP and Mean Household Income (MHI)
Province
Western
Central
Southern
Northern
Eastern
North Western
2007
2009
2016
Share of GDP MHI (Average Share of MHI(Average Share of
monthly)
GDP monthly)
GDP
(2006/07)
(2009/10)
48.4
34493
45.1
44955
32.0
8.9
20507
9.6
35100
10.0
10.5
24730
10.2
31940
14.0
2.9
N/A
3.3
N/A
7.0
5.0
18876
5.8
19710
7.0
9.6
20631
10.3
32120
11.0
North Central
3.9
24548
4.8
35235
6.0
Uva
Sabaragamuwa
4.5
6.3
19757
19698
4.6
6.3
27739
33865
6.0
7.0
Gini Coefficient of Household Income and Per Capita Income
- 2006/07, 2009/10
Sector / Province
Sri Lanka
2006/07
2009/10
2006/07
2009/10
Gini Coefficient
of Household
Income
Gini Coefficient
of Household
Income
Gini Coefficient of
Per capita Income
Gini Coefficient
of Per capita
Income
0.49
0.47
0.49
0.46
Urban
0.54
0.45
0.55
0.47
Rural
Estate
0.46
0.41
0.46
0.44
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.43
Western
Central
Southern
Northern
Eastern
North Western
0.49
0.48
0.44
N/A
0.44
0.48
0.45
0.51
0.43
N/A
0.33
0.49
0.49
0.48
0.43
N/A
0.42
0.47
0.46
0.51
0.42
N/A
0.30
0.48
North Central
0.44
0.39
0.44
0.39
Uva
Sabaragamuwa
0.48
0.48
0.41
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.39
0.48
Financial Sector in Sri Lanka
Importance of the Financial Sector in the
Economy
•
Financial sector is one of the key sectors of the economy which
contributes 8.9 percent to the GDP ( in 2010)
•
During 2009 and 2010, the sector has shown a commendable
growth of 5.7 and 7.5 percent respectively, under global
economic slow down
•
Financial sector provide direct employment to about 264,000
people
•
The role of the Financial sector is critically important for the
realization of five hubs, namely knowledge, air, naval ,
commercial and energy, as envisaged in the ‘Mahinda Chinthana‘
Structure of the Financial System
Major Players of the financial system in Sri Lanka
Name of the Institution
No. of the Institutions
• Central Bank of Sri Lanka
01
• Licensed Commercial Banks (LCBs)
13
• Licensed Specialized Banks (LSBs)
05
• Registered Finance Companies (RFCs)
38
• Specialized Leasing Companies (SLCs)
16
• Primary Dealers (PDs)
• Pension and Provident Funds
• Insurance Companies
• Rural Banks
• Merchant Banks
• Unit Trusts, Thrift And Credit Co-operative Societies; the major financial
markets such as the foreign exchange market, money market, capital
market
• Informal Financial Market; financial infrastructure which is the legal
framework related to the financial system and the payment and settlement
Incentives given in the Budget 2011 /
2012 for the Finance Sector
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Abolish the bank debit tax, so that withdrawal from bank will
not be liable for any tax
Reduce VAT on financial services from 20% to 12%
Reduce tax on profit of banking and financial institutions from
37% to 28%
Steps were taken to require all banks to maintain an Investment
Fund through provisions in the Inland Revenue Act
Provide authority to Exchange Control Department to approve
commercial banks to borrow from outside Sri Lanka – facilitate
to meet the demand of the private sector finance
Permit private business ( operating at a very high corporate level
& financially strong) to borrow from abroad
Simplify taxes applicable to the credit and interest payments
involving above international financial transactions
Financial Soundness Indicators
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Licensed Commercial Banks
1. Capital Adequacy Ratio - Tier I Capital Ratio (%)
8.9
2009 2010
9.3 12.3 11.3 11.9
11.1
12.9 12.7
2. Capital Adequacy Ratio - Total Capital Ratio (%)
10.3 10.3 13.2 12.7 13.6
13.8
15.4 14.9
3. Gross NPA as a % of Total Loans & Advances
4. Net NPA as a % of Capital Funds
5. Sectoral Credit Distribution (%)
Agriculture & Fishing
Manufacturing
Tourism
Transport
Construction
Traders
New Economy
Financial & Business Services
Infrastructure
Other Services
Other Customers
12.5 8.9 6.9 5.5 5.0
52.3 29.8 16.5 13.0 11.9
6.0
16.7
8.2 5.1
25.3 14.4
5.4
17.9
2.6
2.2
14.6
13.8
1.1
4.9
1.0
6.0
30.6
11.6
15.7
2.9
1.7
14.6
14.9
1.3
3.3
1.0
5.2
27.7
-
-
-
5.5
14.4
2.0
1.9
13.9
13.9
3.2
4.5
1.1
5.8
33.7
5.2
16.9
2.2
2.3
16.4
13.6
1.1
5.5
0.9
4.9
30.9
13.9
13.6
2.3
1.7
14.1
15.2
1.0
4.5
1.1
6.9
25.8
Financial Soundness Indicators cont’d………………….
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010
Licensed Commercial Banks
6. Return on Assets (%)
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.7
2.6
7. Return on Equity (%)
21.1 18.3 17.7
16.2
15.0
14.8
11.0
21.3
8. Liquidity Ratio, % (DBU)
26.1 26.3 24.5
23.9
24.8
25.7
33.0
29.4
9. Net Open Position (NOP), % of Capital Funds
(5.6)
2.7 0.01
0.7
1.2
2.2
(1.5)
-1.1
1. Capital Adequacy Ratio - Tier I Capital Ratio (%)
30.8 27.0 25.6
20.8
21.2
21.0
23.6
24.0
2. Capital Adequacy Ratio - Total Capital Ratio (%)
24.9 19.3 19.9
19.8
20.6
25.6
22.0
23.3
3. Gross NPA as a % of Total Loans & Advances
11.5 10.4
9.5
6.7
6.7
8.9
10.4
8.2
4. Net NPA as a % of Capital Funds
21.4 19.7 21.1
21.9
23.0
26.7
30.4
17.7
2.4
2.0
1.7
1.4
2.4
3.8
6. Return on Equity (%)
23.5 17.7 13.9
11.7
10.0
6.9
15.3
26.9
7. Liquidity Ratio (%)
60.3 69.4 69.4
63.6
61.0
61.9
71.1
74.3
Licensed Specialized Banks
5. Return on Assets (%)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
3.2
2.7
Financial System Stability
A stable financial system
• Creates a favourable environment for depositors and
investors
• Encourages financial institutions and markets to function
effectively and efficiently
Promotes Investment and Economic Growth
What is expected from Financial Sector to spur
growth in Sri Lankan Economy
• Introduction of new financial derivatives to cater to
varying demands for capital
• Extend more credit to SME / Micro enterprises, which
represent 80% of the country’s industrial sector
Thank You