Transcript LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE - Workforce Information Council Home

THE LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE
Orientation for New
LMI Directors
Acknowledgments
• Class funded by the Workforce Information
Council
• Administered under contract by the LMI
Training Institute
• Supported by the NASWA LMI Committee
Labor Market Institute
Labor
Market
Information
Labor Market Information
A dynamic and systematic approach
to data—designed to meet the
changing needs of our customers
Labor Market Information
Or, to put it more simply …
Basically, it’s any data or analysis that relates
to the workforce.
Labor Market Information
Who are our
customers???
Data or Information??
• Customer Driven
• Determine
Needs
• Determine
Method of
Delivery
LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE
The Workforce System: A
General History
The Roots of the System - ES
• Free public Employment Service – Generally
thought to begin in medieval times
• Concept in 15th/16th Century Europe
• First public registry of jobs/job-seekers in
Nuremburg, Germany in 1431
• Early 1900s – nationwide in eight European
countries plus Canada, New Zealand and South
Africa
The Roots of the System - UI
• First public UI System – Berne, Switzerland in
1893 (subsidized public to which workers could
contribute)
• Originator of present system in Ghent, Belgium
in 1901 (tied monthly benefit to unemployment
rate)
• Spread to 90 cities in Europe in early 1900s and
nationally in France, Norway and Denmark
• First compulsory law – Great Britain in 1911
The United States Experience
• New York City 1834 – first
public employment office
followed by first state-directed
public employment system in
Ohio in1890
• Massachusetts 1869 – first
state bureau of labor statistics
– by 1883, in 12 more states
• June 27, 1884 – Bureau of
Labor created in Department of
Interior
• Bureau of Labor’s mission: “to
collect information upon the
subject of labor, its relations to
capital, the hours of labor and
the earnings of laboring men
and women, and the means of
promoting their material,
social, intellectual and moral
prosperity”
• Created first national
employment data in 1916
The United States Experience
• Federal involvement in ES in
1907 with Department of
Commerce and Labor
• First federal employment office
on Ellis Island
• Department of Labor
separated in 1913
• By then, 62 federal public
employment offices in 19
states
• Wisconsin passed first
statewide UI law
• June 6, 1933: FDR signed
Wagner-Peyser Act and
Employment Service was
established – full federal/state
system
• Social Security Act of 1935
created federal/state
Unemployment Insurance
system
• Most states started Research
and Statistics sections in the
1930s as part of process
The Birth of Federal/State LMI
• In 1945, national series to yield employment
estimates for each state
• State agencies collected data; regional offices
compiled figures; all data sent to DC to construct
national estimates
• Budget cuts in 1947: complete compilation of
numbers shifted to states under cooperative
agreements
• By 1949, all states involved (start of CES)
The Last Fifty Years
• Manpower Development and Training Act of
1962 – shift to most in need
• Comprehensive Employment and Training Act of
1973 – established “comprehensive LMI system”
– created Division of LMI – provided funding –
core products set – major ETA involvement
• FY 1976 – line-item LMI funding
• Job Training Partnership Act of 1982 – spelled
out LMI requirement explicitly – more local
decision making
The Last Fifty Years
• Levitan Commission (National Commission on
Employment and Unemployment Statistics):
funding and oversight transferred to BLS from
ETA in FY 1984 – BLS started requiring
contractual agreements
• ETA disavowed any responsibility for LMI –
Division of Labor Market Information abolished
1990s and 2000s
• Birth of America’s
Labor Market
Information System in
1994
• Consortia-based
decision making
• Extensive funding
from ETA
• Workforce Investment
Act of 1998
• Specifies LMI as part
of the system with
funding
• Establishes one-stop
system of which LMI
is a part
Funding for the System
• BLS Cooperative
Agreements – One
Year
• ETA Workforce
Information Grant –
Three Years
• Different Years
• Other Funding
Sources
Meeting Customer Needs
• Varied customers,
varied needs
• Information types –
sometimes requires
additional feedback
• Data versus
information
• Different delivery
methods depending
upon customer
• One size does not fit
all customers.
Requirements of ETA
• Public Access to Data
• Workforce Information
Database
• Occupational
Employment
Projections
• Annual economic
analysis report
• Customer Feedback
• Support for Workforce
Investment Boards
• Outreach
• Special research
studies
Website Options
• Vendors: CIBER, Geographic Solutions,
Other In-state options
• Oregon: www.qualityinfo.org
• Washington: www.workforceexplorer.com
• Virginia: www.vawc.virginia.gov/analyzer
WIRED Grants
• Workforce Innovation and Regional Economic
Development
• Encourages regional communities to partner and
leverage assets and resources
• Requires extensive labor market information
• Currently around 40 WIRED regions
• www.doleta.wired
Dealing with the Media
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Hard Lessons
Keep It Simple
Never Give Opinions
Stand By the Facts
Role Varies State to State
Working with Administrators
•
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The Boss is always right.
BLS Restrictions
Estimating versus Actual
Budget Constraints versus Getting the
Work Done
• Different Organizational Entities
Basic Terminology
Speaking the
Language –
Acronyms and
Concepts
Labor Force Terms and Concepts
• Employed
– Worked at least one hour for pay
– During the week that includes the 12th
• Unemployed
– No job attachment
– Able, available for and actively
seeking work
– Can be experienced or
a new or re-entrant
Labor Force Terms & Concepts
• Labor Force
– 16+ years old
– Employed + Unemployed
• Unemployment rate
– Unemployed ÷ Labor Force
• Expressed as %
• Labor Force Participation rate
– Labor Force ÷ Working Age
Population
Labor Force Terms & Concepts
• Discouraged Workers
– Harder to define and
sometimes
undercounted
– Generally are on longterm layoff with no
immediate prospects
• Underemployment
– Also hard to define
and count
– Basically can be
anyone working below
their skill level
– Might be
underemployed by
choice
LMI TRAINING INSTITUTE
BLS Cooperative
Programs
BLS Cooperative Programs
The foundation upon
which most of our data
rests …
Next on the Agenda
The Quarterly Census
of Employment and
Wages (QCEW)
Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
The History
• Began with national UI system in 1938
• BLS assumed responsibility in 1972.
• Expanded scope of program with UI coverage
– Initially UI only covered firms who employed 8 or
more workers at least 20 weeks per year
– Now about 96% of total wage and salary
employment covered
Data Sources for QCEW
• UI quarterly contribution
reports
• UCFE federal agency
employment
• Supplementary employer
surveys by state LMI
offices
– Multiple establishment
detail (MWR)
– Industrial coding
(annual refile survey)
– Follow-ups triggered
by edits
Uses of QCEW Data
• Employment benchmarks
for all BLS federal/state
employer survey
programs
• — CES, OES & OSHA
• Critical for Bureau of
Economic Analysis
– Personal income
– State and national product
• Local planning
– Only consistent source of
county employment and
wages by industry
• Analysis requiring
universe or detailed data
QCEW Limitations & Changes
• Some employment for large firms may be reported in the
wrong areas.
• Some firms report total number of employees in a
quarter as employment for each month.
• Data is not a time series.
– No wedging of changes by industry or area from the following:
• Annual refile survey
• Changes in multi-establishment reporting
• Shift to NAICS — Break in series
Next on the Agenda
The Current
Employment Statistics
(CES) Program
History of CES
• First BLS employment
surveys in 1915
• Hours and earnings in
1933 in response to
Great Depression
• Employment
estimates for all
states by 1940
• Federal/state
relationship by 1949
Coverage Differences Between CES & QCEW
• The following categories of workers are included in CES
estimates but not included in QCEW:
– Full commission salespersons
– Elected and appointed government officials
– Teachers in summer months who are paid on 12month contracts
Data Sources for CES
• Covered employment
from QCEW,
supplemented with noncovered adjustments, is
used to benchmark
levels.
• A monthly employer
survey is a major part of
the program, using a
variety of collection
methods.
Uses of CES
• A primary economic
indicator of employment,
earnings, and working
hours for national, state,
and selected areas
• Total employment growth
used by Federal Reserve
• Incorporated in
preliminary estimates of
National Product and
Income
• Incorporated into
productivity estimates
CES Limitations & Changes
• Sample size limits state and area industry detail (switch
to probability method).
• Sum-of-states employment does not equal national total.
• Estimates for many substate areas are not funded.
• Though accuracy exceeds that of other economic data,
benchmark revisions still cause criticism.
• Earnings are for production workers and are not
available for many state industries.
CES Birth-Death Factor
• CES samples contain
firms that may go out of
business, but not firms
that are just beginning.
– Over time, this causes
estimates based only on
sample to underestimate
employment
• An adjustment is added
by BLS to reduce
magnitude of benchmark
revisions.
Example:
– Previous month’s estimate
= 10,000
– Sample trend
= 1.0100
– Bias adjustment factor
= .0040
– Adjusted trend factor
= 1.0140
– Current month’s estimate
= 10,140
And now on to…
The Occupational
Employment Statistics
(OES) Program
Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
• OES: An employer survey which produces
employment and wage-rate estimates by
occupation and industry for states and areas
• BLS and ETA originally shared responsibility
with the states.
• When BLS took total federal responsibility for
the program, existing funds were spread over
all states.
History of OES
• Began in 1971 –
50,000 surveys in US
• Originally involved ten
cooperating states
before being
extended to 15 and
then all states
History of OES
In 1996, the following changes were made.
• Sample was increased to be the largest of
any employer survey.
• Wage rates were added for all states and
substate areas.
• All industries were surveyed each year rather
than every third year.
OES Staffing Estimates
• Data developed with most
current 3 years of data
• Surveys conducted twice
annually
• Employment by
occupation tallied for
each detailed industry
• Staffing ratios developed
representing each
occupation’s share of
industry employment
OES Wage Rate Estimates
• Data tallied by wage
ranges
• Wage-rate averages
generated by
weighted
interpolations
• Prior data aged
(brought up to date)
by other BLS wage
survey trends (ECI)
State & Area Occupational Projections
• ETA funded but tied to
OES
• Long-term projections: 10
years out
• Composed of adjusted
OES staffing ratios
applied to industry
employment projections
• Technical assistance
available at the following
site:
dev.projectionscentral.com
• Short-term projections —
2 years out
Estimate Delivery System
• Originally developed by
Occupational Projections
Consortium – not part of
BLS
• Software produces
occupational and wage
estimates for substate
areas
• Designed to be used in
conjunction with
MicroMatrix system
• Output files are database
ready
The fourth BLS program is …
The LAUS Program
Which stands for Local Area Unemployment
Statistics
History of LAUS
•
Concepts developed in the 1930s
•
Monthly Report of Unemployment in 1940 – Changed to Current Population
Survey in 1948
•
1950—Handbook method introduced
•
1972—BLS took responsibility for program
•
1973—Large-state direct-use monthly estimates and handbook trends
forced to CPS averages
•
1989—Model-based estimates for all nondirect-use states
•
1996—Model-based estimates for all states
Advantages of Model-Based Estimates
• Less erratic trend than direct CPS monthly state
estimates
• Cheaper than direct CPS estimates
• Predicts annual averages more accurately than
handbook-trended estimates
Note: U.S. data comes directly from the CPS, not from a model.
Substate LAUS Estimates
• Handbook method - used to allocate labor market areas
(LMAs) from state estimates
• Population-claims method used where possible for
estimates of LMA parts
• Census-share method used for parts of LMAs when
claims are not available
• No statistical measures of precision
Lastly, we come to …
The Mass Layoff
Statistics (MLS)
Program
Mass Layoff Statistics
• Began life as PMLPC in 1984 under JTPA
• Renamed Mass Layoff Statistics in 1989
• Intent: To track serious layoffs and closings by
industry
• Not very useful for Rapid Response
• Good post-occurrence analytical tool
• Many states don’t have enough activity to
publish data
Background Material for All BLS
Statistical Programs
BLS Handbook of Methods
Download:
www.bls.gov/opub/hom
Cheat Sheet
Comparison of Bureau of Labor Statistics Programs done in Labor Market Information Shops
BLS
Program
Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages
Other titles
Wage Record
Frequency Quarterly
Sample
No, universe of all
businesses that are
required to report
CES -- Current
Employment
Survey
Monthly Employment
Monthly
LAUS -- Local Area
MLS -- Mass Layoff
Unemployment Statistics
Statistics
Unemployment Rate
Labor Force Data
Mass Layoffs
Monthly
Monthly
No, Composite model
which uses as one of the
inputs responses from the
Current Population Survey,
a household survey that
measures the national
unemployment rate.
Measures Quarterly report of all
Indicator of rapid changes Consistent measure of
employment and firms
in employment available on available, able and actively
(Industry and Employment) a monthly basis (Industry, seeking work for all
Employment and
counties (Unemployment
Manufacturing Production Rate)
Workers wages). Is used
for industrial projections.
Time Lag Not available until 5 months Usually, 6 weeks.
Usually, 6 weeks.
after the end of the quarter
Updates? Of the data, rarely
Yes, firms in sample are
based on the QCEW
universe.
Preliminary data, then
revised. Benchmarked at
the end of the year
Subject to rules of
Geography Subject to rules of
confidentiality. May include confidentiality. Metropolitan
county, metropolitan areas areas and state
and state
Benchmarked at the end of
the year
County, metropolitan areas
and state. In addition, the
different counties in an area
can be added together to
create Labor Market Areas.
No, universe of all
businesses that have a
qualifying event.
Shows the demographic
characteristics of those
involved in a mass layoff.
Definition of mass layoff
event varies by state.
Usually, 6 weeks.
OES -- Occupational
Employment Statistics
Wages by Job Title
Previously once a year.
Data now gathered in May
and November
Yes, firms in sample are
based on the ES-202
universe.
Occupational data by
Industry, geographic area
as well as wage data. Is a
component for projections.
Approximately one year,
should be shorter with new
reporting method.
Of the data, rarely
Uses the ECI (Employment
Cost Index) to bring data upto-date
Subject to rules of
Subject to rules of
confidentiality. In some confidentiality. Metropolitan
states, county,
areas and state are
metropolitan areas and available. In addition, each
state data are available. state may produce four subareas.
System Operation
Who are our
partners in the
system and
how do we
communicate
with each
other? What
resources are
available?
System Resources
Workforce Information Council
• Works together to plan, guide and oversee the
nationwide information system
• Federal Co-chair: Jack Galvin
• State Co-chair: Graham Slater
• Members elected to represent regions across
the country
WIC Members
• Roger Therrien,
Connecticut
• Peter Neenan, New York
• Deep Gupta,
Pennsylvania
• Rebecca Rust, Florida
• Keith Ewald, Ohio
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Mark Hughes, Texas
Bill Niblack, Missouri
Tom Gallagher, Wyoming
Naomi Harada, Hawaii
Graham Slater, Oregon
Policy Councils
• Specialized groups to support the nationwide
workforce information system
• Centered around the following BLS programs:
OES, QCEW, CES and LAUS/MLS
• Mixture of federal and state staff to look at
issues and make recommendations
NASWA LMI Committee
• Specialized committee under the umbrella of the
National Association of State Workforce Agencies
• Representatives from NASWA states appointed by the
individual states
• Headed by Commissioner Teresa Voors of the Indiana
Department of Workforce Development
• Assisted by Don Wehbey, NASWA LMI staff person
• Holds annual NASWA LMI Conference with awards for
outstanding system products and the Chavrid Award
Conferences and Training
• LMI Forum
• NASWA LMI
Conference
• BLS LMI Directors’
Meeting
• Other Conferences
• LMI Training Institute
LMI Training Institute
•
•
•
•
Basic Analyst Class •
Applied Analyst Class •
GIS Class
LMI for Front-line
•
Staff
•
• Other Classes as
•
Requested
• Certification Process
• Best Practices
LMI Forum
LMI Institute Website
www.LMIontheWeb.org
Benefield Award
New Business Plan
ETA Funds for Training
Basic Analyst Class
• December 3 – 5, 2008
• Location: Orlando, Florida
• Information on the
www.LMIontheWeb.org website
Analyst Resource Center
• Resource for Workforce Information Database
administrators
• National Crosswalk Center
• Information on Employer Database
• National Conference in St. Louis in late October
• www.Almisdb.org
Projections Managing Partnership
• www.projectionscentral.com: displays projected
data for all states
• www.dev.projectionscentral.com: technical
assistance for producing projections
Employment Dynamics
• Employment Dynamics from BLS: Job gains
and losses by area from QCEW
• www.bls.gov/bdm
• Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
from Census: Uses UI and Census data to
measure detailed workforce activity by area
• LEHD/LED also produces Quarterly Workforce
Indicators
• www.lehd.did.census.gov
WIN/WIN Project
• Workforce Information Innovators Network
• Goal – “Advance the application and integration
of data, analysis and research to decision
making in regional development by establishing
and supporting an active national practitioner
network”
• John Dorrer, Chair
Supply and Demand
• Occupational Supply and
Demand System – Georgia
State University
• www.occsupplydemand.org
Other Partners
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Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
National Governors’ Association
International Association of Workforce Professionals
National Association of Workforce Development
Professionals
ANY QUESTIONS?