Transcript No Slide Title

Severe Weather
Warning Decision
Making Research &
Development
Improvements
Gregory J. Stumpf
CIMMS / University of Oklahoma
NWS Meteorological Development
Laboratory Decision Assistance Branch
Location: National Severe Storms Laboratory,
Norman, OK
17 July 2006
Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
National Severe Storms
Laboratory (NSSL)
Mission
To enhance the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA)
capabilities to provide accurate and timely forecasts and warnings of
hazardous weather events. NSSL accomplishes this mission, in partnership
with the National Weather Service (NWS), through
a balanced program of research to advance the understanding of weather
processes
research to improve forecasting and warning techniques
development of operational applications
and transfer of understanding, techniques, and applications to the NWS.
NSSL is the sole NOAA agency responsible for the R&D of new applications
and technology to improve NWS severe weather warning decision making.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
NWS/MDL in Norman
My former NSSL position was as group manager responsible for the
development of severe weather warning decision making
applications and algorithms.
In April 2004, I transferred to the NWS Meteorological Development
Laboratory Decision Assistance Branch.
My location remained at NSSL in Norman
Act as a liaison to transfer severe weather research and application
development at NSSL into NWS operations
Develop experimental warning decision making testbed for new
remote-sensing technologies and new multiple-sensor warning
applications
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
History
NSSL developed initial suite of singleradar algorithms for the WSR-88D Doppler
Radar:
Detection, Diagnosis, and Tracking of storm
cells, hail, mesocyclones, tornado vortex
signatures.
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Legacy WDSS
NSSL designed its
legacy Warning
Decision Support
System (WDSS) in the
early 1990s.
WDSS Sites
Tested throughout the
1990s at various NWS
offices nationwide.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Legacy Warning Decision
Support System (WDSS)
Probability of
tornado and
damaging
winds from
neural
network
Table
ranking the
most severe
storms
One hour
trend of
storm
parameter
s
Detects
storms and
vortices
and
forecasts
their
movement.
Pop-up table
alerting of
rapidly growing
storms
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Time-height trend
information from 130 million
data points
Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Legacy WDSS
Early in the project, employed some
human factors engineers to help design
the DSS.
Funding for the human factors component
was cut early in the project.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
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WDSS Proof-of-Concept
Test Objectives
To evaluate the operational utility of new severe
weather algorithms and the decision support system
display.
To expose NSSL developers and scientists to NWS
operations to better understand user requirements.
Feedback surveys designed by the meteorologists (no
other disciplines involved) were used to refine the
applications.
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WDSS Implementation
Eventual operational implementation in NWS systems.
The radar algorithms were implemented into the WSR-88D
system.
The WDSS concept was implemented as the NWS System for
Convective Analysis and Nowcasting (SCAN).
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
NWS Decision Assistance
Branch
Mission:
Develop and implement a comprehensive suite of advanced
tools covering the full scope of hydro-meteorological
phenomena, other hazardous events, and NWS forecaster
responsibilities
Along with SCAN:
Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)
System on AWIPS for Forecasting and Evaluation of Seas and
Lakes (SAFESEAS)
Fog Monitor
System for Nowcasting Winter Weather (SNOW)
Fire Weather Monitor and Nowcasting (FIREMAN)
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But what happened
with SCAN?
Although the NSSL WDSS proof-ofconcept tests were very favorable, SCAN
has become a thorn in the side of the
NWS warning program.
SCAN User Feedback indicated that the
users preferred not to use the algorithms,
but rather base data analysis.
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Back to NSSL
NSSL addressing many of the limitations
of the current algorithm and display
design.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Warning Decision Support
System – Integrated
Information (WDSS-II)
Support multiple-radar and multi-sensor data integration
Including multi-office/national CONUS applications.
Develop innovative 4D display tool
Support for algorithm/application developers in the form
of an Application Programming Interface (API)
Easy to add new products and concepts
Seamless path from data ingest, processing, and output using
standard formats
To improve the pace of science and technology infusion
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
New Severe Weather
Algorithm Requirements
Objectives for new warning application development:
Integrate multiple-radar and multiple-sensor information



No longer single-radar specific
Must input highest resolution data in native format
More accuracy in detection and diagnosis (oversampling - more
“eyes” looking at storms).
Must have rapid-update capability


Uses virtual volume scan concept
Better lead time (no more waiting until end of volume scan for
guidance).
Must be scientifically sound
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Multiple-Radar 3D
Reflectivity Mosaic
Filling the cones-ofsilence
Single Radar
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
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Multiple-Radar 3D
Reflectivity Mosaic
Filling the cones-ofsilence
Multiple radars
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Multiple Sensor
Applications
Reflectivity @ -20C
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Summer WAS*IS 2006
NSSL Google Earth
Products
http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff/
Multi-radar reflectivity products (1 km, 5-minute updates)
Multi-radar Doppler velocity products (0.5 km, 2-minute update)
Severe storm analysis products derived from 3D reflectivity
fields and environmental data
Products on the web site are either Continental U.S. (CONUS) or
broken up by region.
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Hail Swaths
“Is there a business I can call to
verify my warning?”
“Where was the greatest likelihood
of the largest hail?”
March 12-13
2006 Outbreak
Kansas
Missouri
Illinois
Indiana
Multiple-Radar
Hail Swaths from
Google Earth
Note “Six-State
Supercell”!
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
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“Rotation Tracks”
“Where should we send damage
survey teams?”
“Where do the first responders
need to focus on?”
“Did it affect Aunt Joan’s house?”
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Summer WAS*IS 2006
Four-Dimensional
Stormcell Investigator (FSI)
Can update X-Section
line by dragging
reference points
2D and 3D pictures are
linked
Other representations
update on-the-fly
The Lemon Technique
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
New Forecast Techniques
and Observational Tools
Radar:
Dual-Polarization Radar
Phased-Array Radar
Gap-Filling Radar (mobile and stationary)
Satellite Technology Improvements
3D Lightning Detection
Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimation
Warn on Forecast
Instead of Warn On Detection
Uses storm-scale numerical models
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
So, what are we doing
with all of this?
And how does this relate to WAS*IS?
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
So, what are we doing
with all of this?
NSSL R&D has outpaced NWS technology.
Working to help define new NWS hardware and software to
support new applications, products, and concepts of operations.
But new hardware and software costs MONEY, and must
be justified in the context of improvements in service
and benefit to society.
The NWS is “poor”.
There are challenges dealing with NWS Headquarters
culture.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
So, what are we doing
with all of this?
Working to posture ourselves for potential new NWS
Concepts of Operations (ConOps).
User feedback workshops:
NWS meteorologists
Users of NWS products (disaster planning exercise)
Testing new applications, products, and services in an
national experimental “proving ground”.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Future NWS
Concept of Operations
Enable and Communicate
forecaster expertise
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Enabling Forecaster
Expertise
Improve Situational Awareness
Non traditional information

TV, Webcams, Electrical Grid status,
road conditions
Gatekeeper or coordinator

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Situational Awareness Displays
Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Enabling Forecaster
Expertise
Improve Data Integration
Multi-sensor
algorithms
Better data
visualization
Geographic Information System (GIS)
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Communicating
Forecaster Expertise
Exploit Digital Media
The Internet, cell phone, PDAs, vehicle “On-Star”, etc.
Improve collaboration tools
With other NWS and private sector meteorologists
With “community gatekeepers”
Geo-reference Information and Expertise
Enable users’ decision making
Improvements to severe weather warning products
Improved threat ID and tracking
Smaller time and space scales
Expressing forecaster uncertainty (probabilities)
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Probabilistic Threat
Information
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Probabilistic Threat
Information
SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM
WARNING
These data are digital!
>50%
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>25%
>10%
>0%
Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
“Warn On Forecast”
Advances and research and
technology are fostering
probabilistic forecasts across
the spectrum of time and
space scales.
Now: Warnings based on
detection
Future: Warnings based on
forecast
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Will the public understand
probabilistic warnings?
How do we define “the public” (or publics)?
What about the “community gatekeepers”?
Any high-resolution grid can be aggregated to simpler
and simpler formats…
…but not the other way around!
A perfect opportunity for societal impact studies!
As well as user workload studies.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
1st Severe Tech
Workshop
12–14 July 2005, NWS Headquarters, Silver Spring, MD
Sponsors: MDL/Decision Assistance Branch; Warning Decision Training Branch
Google “MDL severe workshop”
Attendees
Primary User Audience: WFO meteorologists
Scientists and developers (NSSL, MDL, NCAR, NESDIS, NASA, GSD)
NWS and Region Headquarters management and requirements group representatives
Objectives
To review the “state of the science and technology” of NWS severe weather warning
assistance tools.
To identify gaps in the present methodologies and technologies
To gain expert feedback from the field (including “stories” from the front lines)
To discuss the near-term and long-term future trends in R&D
For field forecasters and R&D scientists to help pave the direction for new technological
advances.
To improve severe weather warning services to users.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Workshop Survey
Results
Areas of Desired improvements:
Higher resolution observational data on
temporal and spatial scale of severe
convection
More dedicated time, resources, and
infrastructure for improved training
Improvements in base data displays that
allow more effective navigation in both
space (2D and 3D) and time (4D)
Faster and more dependable software and
hardware
Improved algorithm guidance information
Better decision support tools
Improved software interface design
New tools to monitor situation awareness
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New product formats that allow for
better conveying uncertainty in
warning decisions
More effective warning communication
Better measures of public service and
verification improvements
Improved leadership skills and workload
management
More research into forecast problems
and better guidance
Better capabilities to merge geographic
information into operations
Faster implementation of technological
improvement
Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
2nd Severe Tech
Workshop
Fall 2006 (tentative)
Attendees
In addition to the type at workshop #1
Users from various sectors (private, EM, etc)?
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
National Weather Center
(NWC) Hazardous
Weather Testbed (HWT)
Research Transition to
Operations (RTO)
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Experimental Warning
Program (EWP)
Traditionally has been an NSSL-Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
activity (the SPC “Spring Program”)
Spinning up a National warning-scale component this year, to be
known as the “Experimental Warning Program” (EWP) at Norman,
OK – National Weather Center (NWC)
NSSL
Norman Weather Forecast Office (WFO)
SPC
MDL
Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB)
Visiting forecasters, scientists, etc.
Collaboration with other disciplines, emergency management,
private industry, etc.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Norman is unique
Sensor-rich. A few unique ones:
Phased Array Radar
Polarimetric radar
Gap-filling radars
3D Lightning Mapping Array
Mesonet
National-scale applications run locally (models, WDSSII)
Large community of researchers, operational
meteorologists, students, industry
Meteorology also intersects with other disciplines
Lots of visiting meteorologists (WDTB, visiting scientists,
etc.)
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Some Initial Objectives
Capability to emulate the warning operations for any location in the
Continental U.S. (CONUS).
Evaluation of new warning guidance applications and displays that
integrate data from multiple sensors (both operational and experimental)
and numerical models (including “warn-on-forecast”)
Development and evaluation of new warning dissemination techniques
(e.g., probabilistic warning grids)
Development of methods to significantly improve warning verification tasks
and improve the climate record of hazardous weather events
Create advanced Geographic Information System information for utilization
in emergency management response to disasters (WxGIS)
Testing the operational utility of new meteorological sensors.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Primary Goals
and Challenges
Collaboration between researchers and operational
forecasters
0-2 hour forecasts/warnings
Post-event response
Forecasters benefit from the latest research tools
Researchers gain valuable insight into operational
forecasters’ needs
The EWP is mostly unfunded!
Looking for collaborations for socio/econ wx projects
that benefit NWS and society.
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006
Questions?
Email: [email protected]
NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory
Decision Assistance Branch
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/dab/decisionassistbr.htm
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Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL
Summer WAS*IS 2006