Transcript At risk youth – A transitory state?

Youth transitions in a new era:
a role for ACE
Presentation by:
Alison Anlezark, Manager LSAY branch
at:
Adult & Community Education NSW
Young People and Schools Forum
Sydney, 25 February 2010
Structure
•
•
•
•
•
Defining & quantifying ‘at risk’ youth
Assisting ‘at risk’ youth
Young people in ACE/VET
What the research tells us
Some pointers for a role for ACE in assisting
‘at risk’ youth
Youth Transition
“A
journey
of a
thousand
miles
begins
with a
single
step” –
Lao Tzu
Child
Student
Adult
• Attending school
• May have part-time employment
• May be studying other than at school (VET, non accredited)
• Living at home
• Post-school study
• University
• VET (includes apprenticeship and traineeships)
• Frequently also have part-time job
• Living with parent(s) or independently
•
•
•
•
Fully engaged in earning or learning (or a combination of both)
Financially independent from their parent(s)
Living independently
Making a positive contribution to the economy and the broader
economic society
‘At risk’ youth
• Maddie lived with her sole parent mother in her early years
which were disrupted by health and housing problems
• After her mother died, she lived with relatives and then with
her father as a sole parent
• At 15 in Year 9 she ran away from home and missed a lot of
school
• She returned but finally left school the following year at 16
• She worked at a fast food outlet and later undertook VCAL as
a TAFE program. At 17 she had completed her VCAL year and
was hoping to get an office traineeship
Source: Porter J, 2009, Stories of early school leaving: Pointers for
policy and practice, Brotherhood of St Lawrence, Australia
‘At risk’ youth
• Duc’s parents separated when he was young and he had a
disrupted childhood with many moves of school
• At times he lived with his mother and at others with his
father who had a stable job and higher income
• At 15 he was living interstate with his mother, but left
school and also left home
• At 16 his father ‘rescued’ him and brought him back to live
with him
• Duc returned to school and, at 17, had completed Year 10
and intended to complete school and go to university
Source: Porter J, 2009, Stories of early school leaving. Pointers for
policy and practice, Brotherhood of St Lawrence, Australia
‘At risk’ youth
• Carlo grew up in a two-parent family. His father worked in
the construction industry but had at times been
unemployed because of injuries
• Carlo had attention, learning and behaviour difficulties at
school from an early age. He went to an alternative school
but left at age 15 after he was assaulted
• He tried a number of work and training options including a
carpentry apprenticeship, but at 17 had spent the year at
home unhappily unemployed
• He wanted a full-time job in construction
Source: Porter J, 2009, Stories of early school leaving.: Pointers for
policy and practice, Brotherhood of St Lawrence, Australia
‘At risk’ youth
• Young people who are ‘at risk’ of an unsuccessful
youth transition
• Relatively easy to define:
a. unemployed youth: actively looking for work
b. disengaged youth: not engaged in full-time
education or full-time employment
c. non-completers of Year 12/vocational equivalent
• Complex because not a static state
– youth transitions are a time of flux for many young
people
Geography
NSW
Statistics
At risk youth, Australia, ~July 2009
15-19 year olds
‘At risk’
Pop
Unemployed
Disengaged youth
Y12/Cert II non-completer
n
Persons
Rate (%)
n
%
n
%
Males
739,500
69,700
17.2%
113,100
15.3%
507,300
68.6%
Females
700,800
54,100
13.5%
123,300
17.6%
452,000
64.5%
Total
1,440,300
123,800
15.4%
236,400
16.4%
959,300
66.7%
NSW
480,422
Source: ABS 3201.0 ERP as at 30 June 2008, data cube
ABS 6291.0.55.001 unemployment rates, July 09, from (ST LM2) Labour force status by age, sex, detailed delivery, Sept 09
ABS 6227.0, SEW, 2008, Year 12 or Cert II completion
ABS 6105.0 Labour Force Survey, cited in FYA, How young people are faring ‘09 ,Fig 2, pg 8
NSW
Statistics
At risk youth, Australia, ~ July 2009
20-24 year olds
‘At risk’
Pop
Unemployed
Disengaged youth
Y12/Cert II non-completer
n
Persons
Rate (%)
n
%
n
%
Males
759,700
56,100
8.5%
169,400
22.3%
142,100
18.7%
Females
734,400
36,900
6.4%
207,800
28.3%
93,300
12.7%
Total
1,494,100
93,000
7.6%
377,200
25.3%
235,400
15.8%
NSW
502,865
Source: ABS 3201.0 ERP as at 30 June 2008, data cube
ABS 6291.0.55.001 unemployment rates, July 09, from (ST LM2) Labour force status by age, sex, detailed delivery, Sept 09
ABS 6227.0, SEW, 2008, Year 12 or Cert II completion,
ABS 6105.0 Labour Force Survey, cited in FYA, How young people are faring ‘09, Table 17, pg 21
Youth unemployment
Crisis for teens in earning,
learning
Govt's IR changes 'may
hurt youth employment'
ANNA PATTY EDUCATION EDITOR
Posted Tue Apr 21, 2009 11:00am AEST
October 7, 2009
YOUTH
unemployment
has increased sharply
and is expected to
worsen, a national report
has found.
The
proportion
of
teenagers out of work
increased from 12.2 per
cent in May last year to
18.5 per cent in May this
year.
Young and the jobless
STEPHANIE PEATLING
Youth bear jobless brunt
TIM COLEBATCH AND BEN SCHNEIDERS
October 11, 2009
Unemployment going
down is nothing but a
good story. The latest
labour force figures
show
unemployment
fell to 5.7 per cent last
month. That's a bit
more than 40,000 new
jobs, most of them full
time. But look
Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard has defended the
Federal Government's changes to industrial relations
laws against claims they could affect youth
unemployment.
below the headline
numbers at what is
happening to youth
unemployment. From
the second half of last
year to May this year
the
number
of
unemployed teenagers
grew steadily to 18.5
per cent.
August 21, 2009
Young Australians have been the main victims of the
recession, accounting for all the net 122,000 full-time
jobs lost in Australia in the past year, official figures
reveal.
Unemployment rates
* Source ABS, 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed Electronic Delivery, August monthly reported only, LM8, Sept 09
% experienced at least 1
month of unemployment in a
year
Unemployment experience by age
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Males
Females
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Average age
* Source LSAY cohort report, Y95 cohort: 1986-2006 (w2 – w12)
Disengaged youth
• Disengaged youth
– Young people who are not fully engaged with
either education (learning) or work (earning)
– Statistics most alarming
• Nationally, 16% of the 1.4 million 15-19 year olds
– Equates to around 75,000 young people in NSW
• Nationally, 25% of the 1.5 million 20-24 year olds
– Equates to around 125,000 young people in NSW
– Contributing factors
• part-time work and study
• caring responsibilities
Disengaged youth
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Males
Females
17.6%
* Sourced from ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)(data cube LM3),
cited in AYF, How young people are faring ‘09, Figure 2, page 8
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
15.3%
1989
% disengaged
Disengaged youth 15-19 years
Disengaged youth
Males
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Females
28.3%
* Sourced from ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)(data cube LM3),
cited in AYF, How young people are faring ‘09, Table 17, pg 21
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
22.2%
1989
% disengaged
Disengaged youth 20-24 years
Not working, no study
NILF or unemployed (no study) by age
Peak at 17 yrs, around school completion
% not working
50
40
Males
30
Females
20
10
10.0
4.2
0
15
16
17
*Source LSAY cohort report, Y95 cohort w2-w12
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Year 12 or vocational
equivalent
Proportion 20-24 yr olds with Y12/Cert II
84.2%
Large body of research on the benefits of Y12 completion, but vocational
qualifications may be as effective for non-academically inclined
*Source ABS Education and Work, 2008, Cat. 6227.0, additional data cube
Who is most ‘at risk’?
Exogenous factors
Mediating factors
Indigenous
Poor attitude to school
Born in Australia
Attend government school*
Live outside metropolitan area
Poor student-teacher relationship
Low academic achievers
Dislike of school
Low levels of literacy and numeracy
Intention in Year 9 to leave school early
Parents work in blue collar jobs
Poor student behaviour
Parents without university education
Non-nuclear family
* May also be an exogenous factor if limited school choice available
*Source previous LSAY research reports
ACE NSW statistics
ACE NSW statistics
• 12.6% ACE NSW students aged 15-24 yrs
• ~1/3 are studying in metropolitan locations
• Popular courses for all students in ACE NSW:
– Society & culture 20.3%
– Management & commerce 18.0%
– Health: 14.6%
– Mixed field 11.2%
Source: Adult and Community Education in NSW, 2009
NSW ACE Numbers count, 2008
NCVER statistics
2008 NSW VET students
NSW
Age Group
Australia
Males
Females
Total
Males
Females
Total
14 years and under
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
15 to 19 years
32%
27%
29%
33%
29%
31%
20 to 24 years
17%
12%
15%
19%
14%
16%
25 to 29 years
10%
9%
9%
11%
9%
10%
30 to 39 years
15%
17%
16%
17%
17%
17%
40 to 49 years
12%
17%
15%
13%
18%
15%
50 to 59 years
8%
11%
9%
8%
11%
9%
60 to 64 years
2%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
65 years and over
2%
2%
12%
1%
2%
2%
269,330
277,220
547,550
887,550
806,710
1,696,440
Total
*Source VET Atlas, NCVER
2008 NSW VET students
NSW
Australia
Males
Females
Total
Males
Females
Total
Natural and physical sciences
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Information technology
4%
2%
3%
3%
1%
2%
Engineering & related technologies
25%
2%
13%
29%
3%
17%
Architecture and building
Agriculture, environmental & related
studies
14%
1%
7%
13%
1%
7%
7%
2%
4%
6%
2%
4%
Health
3%
5%
4%
3%
6%
5%
Education
1%
2%
2%
2%
4%
3%
Management and commerce
16%
29%
22%
14%
27%
20%
Society and culture
5%
17%
11%
5%
16%
10%
Creative arts
2%
4%
3%
2%
3%
3%
Food, hospitality & personal services
8%
13%
11%
8%
14%
11%
Mixed field programs
10%
15%
12%
6%
8%
7%
269,330
277,220
547,550
887,550
806,710
1,696,440
Total
*Source VET Atlas, NCVER, unknown courses not displayed
ppo
Using LSAY to measure
youth transition
• Longitudinal data
– Follows the same individuals over time
– Useful for measuring outcomes over time
– Can attribute causality
– Can control for background characteristics
– Large datasets
LSAY cohorts
Key
Y09
integrated with PISA
and entry when aged 15
Entry in Year 9, no
integration with PISA
Y06
N = 14,710 N = 8,380 (08)
Y03
N = 10,370
N = 6,074 (08)
Y98
N = 14,117 (98)
N = 3,858 (08)
Y95
N = 13,613 (95)
N = 3,914 (06)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13..19
Year
Which pathways?
• Apprenticeships can assist young men who leave
school early to achieve a successful youth
transition
• The greater education attainment for females,
the more successful the youth transition
• Some traineeships have positive outcomes
Karmel T & Liu S, forthcoming, LSAY research report: Which pathways work for
which groups of young people?, NCVER, Adelaide
Male post-school
pathways
Y95 in 2006
n=1,812
Early school
leaver
19%
No postschool
study
9%
Apprentice
5%
Year 12
completer
81%
Trainee or
other VET
5%
•source LSAY Y95 data, first pathway taken to 2006
No postschool
study
23%
Apprentice
5%
Trainee
4%
Other VET
13%
University
36%
Female post-school
pathways
Y95 in 2006
n=2,102
Early school
leaver
14%
No post-school
study
9%
Year 12
completer
86%
Further study*
5%
* Includes apprenticeships, traineeships and other VET
•source LSAY Y95 data, first pathway taken to 2006
No post-school
study
25%
Apprentice or
trainee
6%
Other VET
13%
University
43%
VET in schools
• Looked at the effectiveness of VET in Schools (VIS)
programs
– School VET programs are more attractive to:
• the less academically inclined
• those from more disadvantaged background
• students with lower post-school aspirations
– VET in schools can have a positive impact on Y10 – Y11 retention, but a
negative impact on Y11-Y12 retention
– VET in schools students who don’t go on to Y12 can benefit
– For most VET in schools students, there is a poor alignment between
the types of VET programs studied at school and the requirements of
the world or work or further study
Anlezark A, Karmel T, Ong K, 2006, Have school VET programs been
successful?, NCVER, Adelaide
VET in schools
Course information in 2003 for a selection of VET students
Boys
16-17 yrs
Field
School
VET
Nonschool
VET
Information technology
24.4
Engineering
Girls
18-19 yrs
16-17 yrs
18-19 yrs
Postschool VET
School VET
6.9
7.4
10.8
2.7
2.0
18.6
30.6
31.6
2.2
2.8
3.3
Management & commerce
15.8
10.0
14.2
32.8
29.8
37.5
Society & culture
3.9
3.5
3.9
9.3
12.7
15.6
Food, hospitality & pers. services
12.0
9.8
10.2
31.0
24.1
18.1
Mixed field programs
6.3
12.3
6.9
5.7
13.5
8.5
Anlezark A, Karmel T, Ong K, 2006, Have school VET programs been
successful?, NCVER, Adelaide
Nonschool
VET
Post-school
VET
VET in Schools
• Explores the impact of VET in school on intention and
achievement
– Post-school plans change little between Years 11 & 12 and
participation in school VET in senior years may be too late to
influence post-school plans
– School VET programs assist in post-school employment
choices through exposure to the world of work
– VET in schools can assist a small group who were intent on
getting a job straight after school to consider VET study (inc.
apprenticeship/traineeships)
N Nguyen, forthcoming, LSAY briefing paper: The impact of VET in schools
on the intentions and achievements of young people, NCVER, Adelaide
Changes to post-school plans:
Year 11 to Year 12 for those
who intended to work
Changes in post-school plans from intend
to work after school in Y11
No change (still intend to work)
VET in School
(n=155)
38%
No VET in School
(n=153)
41%
Changed to TAFE
25%
9%
Change to university
16%
36%
Changed to apprenticeship/traineeship
21%
14%
Total
100%
100%
* Y95 cohort in 1998
N Nguyen, forthcoming, LSAY briefing paper: The impact of VET in
schools on the intentions and achievements of young people, NCVER,
Adelaide
VET pathways
• Looks at VET pathways taken by school leavers
• Findings:
– Apprenticeships are undertaken by mostly males who are:
• Early school leavers, English speaking background, low literacy, higher
numeracy, have parents in the trades
– Traineeships mostly females who are:
• Lower literacy or numeracy, not from high SES background
– None apprenticeship VET:
• Early school leavers enrol in lower level VET qualifications
• Less favourable outcomes than apprentices and trainees
Curtis D, 2008, LSAY Research report 52: VET pathways taken by
school leavers, ACER, Melbourne
VET pathways
• Looks at VET pathways taken by school leavers
• Findings:
– Young people who participate in apprenticeships and
traineeship programs experience better outcomes than
those who do no post-school study
– Participation in, but non-completion of, nonapprenticeship VET courses, is not associated with better
outcomes than for those with no post-school education
– Males who complete apprenticeships experience the best
labour market outcomes of VET participants
Curtis D, 2008, LSAY Research report 52: VET pathways taken by
school leavers, ACER, Melbourne
Success factors
• Success despite the odds? looks at low (mathematics)
achievers, and identifies factors for success:
– Success defined as fully engaged and happier than average
– What happens in the immediate post-school years can have
important consequences
• Students need support and information about pathways and
opportunities
– Low achieving students from low SES have less chance of
success
– Motivation and positive school experiences were factors
identified as influencing success
Thomson S, Hillman K, forthcoming, LSAY RIEF research report, Success
despite the odds? Post-school pathways of low mathematics achievers
in Australia, NCVER, Adelaide
Ambition & attainment
• Lost talent? looks at the occupational ambitions and
attainment of high achieving young Australians
– SES background influences aspirations
• high SES, higher aspirations
– It’s important to have a plan
• Ambitious high school plans are a good predictors of getting a good job
• No occupational plans result in poorer employment outcomes
– Comprehensive career guidance is important
• Students who pursue careers which diversify from their parents
education and occupational backgrounds are at greater not achieving
their goal, despite having the academic ability to pursue them
Sikora J & Saha LJ, forthcoming, LSAY RIEF research report, Lost talent?
The occupational ambitions and attainments of young Australians,
NCVER, Adelaide
Stories of early school
leaving
• A longitudinal survey of 140 young people in Melbourne
undertaken by the Brotherhood of St Lawrence recommends
– Locally accessibly and prominent youth-focused services to:
• Listen to and understand the complexity of the young people’s
lives
• Have wide knowledge of employment and training options, and
provide or refer to practical assistance
– Supporting the role of parents in assisting their young people’s
future planning, but also acknowledging that some young
people do not have parents who are able to assist
Taylor J, 2009, Stories of early school leaving: Pointers for policy
and practice, Brotherhood of St Lawrence, Australia
Early school leavers in
ACE & VET
• Stepping stones? Looks at ACE/VET programs for early
school leavers
– Young students in ACE/VET like the:
•
•
•
•
•
relationships between staff & students
flexibility in mode of delivery & autonomy
choice of study areas
being treated like an adult
but boundaries and clear expectations are needed for some
– Advice & advocacy by staff assist progression to further study
– Cohesive support is needed (integration with youth services)
– Brokering education pathways at the local level work
Wyn J, Stokes H, Tyler D, 2004, Stepping stones: TAFE and ACE
program development for early school leavers, ANTA, Brisbane
A role for ACE?
•
•
•
•
One size doesn’t fit all, diversification is the key
The school or learning environment matters
It’s important to have a plan – involve students & parents
Disengaged youth need to be re-engaged with learning in
an interesting and stimulating manner
– Literacy and numeracy issues need to be carefully considered
• Working with ‘at risk’ youth is challenging, but rewarding
– Education needs are only one part of young people’s lives
– Competing needs including drug use, homelessness, family
and other relationships
References
• Research:
– How young people are faring:
• http://www.fya.org.au/media/publications/
– Stories of early school leaving:
• http://www.bsl.org.au/pdfs/Taylor_stories_of_early_school_leaving.pdf
• ACE NSW
– www.ace.nsw.gov.au
• NCVER:
– www.ncver.edu.au
• LSAY:
– www.lsay.edu.au
Questions?
Presentation by:
Alison Anlezark, Manager LSAY branch
[email protected]