SUSTAINABILITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE AND MULTI HAZARD RISK MANAGEMENT: MULTI-SECTOR R & D PRIORITIES

K J Ramesh Adviser & Scientist-’G’ Ministry of Earth Sciences New Delhi

   

Issues Central to the Sustainability

We will have to approach the issue of sustainability at three system levels global, social and human. All the three systems are crucial for sustaining existence of humans and preserving our environment.

The global system

is essentially the earth system, atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, geosphere and biosphere. This system provides energy, resources and ecosystem to survive. Ocean is an important component of the earth system and control weather and climate and influence biota. Ocean makes the planet Earth habitable. We know that the earth system influences all our activities and vice-versa.

The social system

comprises political, economic, industrial structures created by us to advance our development. It is believed that development is linked to economic growth and technological advancement. We have also seen such developments may lead to environmental related issues.

The human system

involves factors responsible for survival of individual human beings and closely linked to social system. The healthy functioning of the human system depends on our lifestyle and values. Human beings are mainly affected by inequalities in the social system.

    

During last two centuries or so, after the industrial revolution, we have seen that human and social systems have significantly affected our environment and has become major driver of influencing the earth system .

The earth system components, especially carbon cycle and ocean acidification, sea level changes, loss of biodiversity and modern-agriculture induced pollution of reactive nitrogen and phosphorous , have reached to level which can potentially alter the equilibrium among the components of the Earth system .

Global efforts in the recent few decades has been to zone management time.

augment global ocean observation system to study the role of oceans, especially capture climate change signatures, conservation and sustainable use of marine living resources and coastal . Though we have made significant progress in global ocean observations, we need to augment and sustain such observations for very long Our focused observations are related changes in mass, bio-geochemical measurements, micro-nutrients and trace elements for marine ecosystems dynamics and carbon cycling, microbial oceanography, etc.

to sea temperature, pCO 2 , sea level rise and These observations need to be assimilated into improved Earth System Models(ESMs) to forecast impact on productivity of marine waters with improved accuracy and reliability.

Biogeochemical Cycles



The alteration of the global nitrogen cycle is even more dramatic through fertilizer production and transforming the inert form of nitrogen into biologically available forms



At the continental to regional scale sulphur

emissions have altered the acidity of terrestrial

and aquatic ecosystems, at the same time as increasing the aerosol content of the atmosphere and consequentially the Earth’s albedo.

Context

   

Drive for economic growth and social upliftment is generating new disaster risks. Increasing urbanisation leading to unstable living environment is an example.

1950 <30% of worlds 2.5 billion people lived in an urban setting.

 

1998 ~45% of worlds 5.7 billion people lived in cities 2035 (as per UN) ~60% of worlds 8.5 billion people will live in cities The population density in these urban centers and concentrations of economic activity will make these areas more vulnerable. And new cities are coming up undesirably in high risk zones, concentrating wealth, physical structures and infrastructure together in the high risk zones.

Development processes are thus currently largely associated with risk accumulation and not risk reduction.

• •

Context

•

Climate Change Impact of human activities on climate systems is unequivocal. Observed changes in climate over the

Indian region:    An increase of 0.4

o C in the last 100 years

Substantial changes in precipitation on a spatial scale An increase in intensity of heavy precipitation events

Climate Change Impacts

    Water Security Food security Energy Security GDP and Development  Rise in sea level along the Indian coast @ 1.06-1.25 mm/year over last 40 years

Climate projections indicate-

 Rise in temperature by 2-4 o C by 2050s  

Decrease in number of rainy days Increase in intensity of rainfall Adaptation Priorities demand deliberate adjustments in natural or human systems and behaviours Moisture/Water conserving practices ; hybrid selection; crop substitution; conservation specific stress tolerant breeds; improved farm management practices

 Adverse impacts on key economic sectors and vulnerabilities of climate sensitive regions

Observed Rainfall Trends over India

Source: Goswami et al., Science, Dec., 2006

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Frequency 9-point Filter

Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events Year Rajeevan et al. 2008, Geophys. Res. Letters

One –Day Extreme Rainfall Records During 2010

2010 Death toll due to heavy rains / floods in different parts of the country, during the monsoon season >500 (mostly from northern and north-western parts).

Heavy rainfall events in November 2010 took a toll of more than 50 people from peninsular parts (AP, TN and Karnataka) of the country.

STATION NETWORK HEAVY RF > 10 CM Very HEAVY RF > 15 CM Rajeevan et al. 2008, Geophys. Res. Letters

Projected changes (2030)- Water

Water yield –

Himalayan region: likely to increase

North Eastern region:

Reduction

Western ghats:

Variable water yield changes projected across the region

Coastal region:

general reduction in water yield

Impact Assessments - 2040-60

Agriculture Water Coastal zones 4.5t/ha (Control) 4.5/ha (Climate Change) 2.5t/ha (Control) Malaria 2.5/ha (Climate Change)

T W Open for months 4-6 CA RN IC OB AR 7-9 10-12 N.A

Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular stressed conditions Rare water shortages Dry savannah Xeric Shrub land Xeric woodland Tropical Seasonal Forest Boreal Evergreen Tundra

Forests

• • • • The globally combined land a warming of and ocean surface temperature data show

0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] ° C

2012, over the period 1880– when multiple independently datasets exist.

averaged produced The total increase between the average of the

1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] ° C

, based on the single longest dataset available Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends.

As one example, the rate of warming over the past

+0.15]

since

° [0.08 to 0.14] ° 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to C per decade)

, which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated

1951 (1951–2012; 0.12

C per decade

• • • Confidence to 1951 and in precipitation change averaged over global land areas since 1901 is medium afterwards.

low prior Averaged over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation has increased since 1901 ( medium confidence before and high confidence after 1951).

For other latitudes area-averaged long-term positive or negative trends have confidence .

low

• To Describe the available evidence : • For the degree of agreement : • A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers : • To indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result : • Additional terms

limited, medium, or robust low, medium, or high very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1% (extremely likely: 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, and extremely unlikely 0–5%)

Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes, and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st century.

Bold indicates where the

AR5 (black)

provides a revised* global-scale assessment from the

SREX (blue)

or

AR4 (red)

Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous assessment reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative to the reference period of 1986–2005, and use the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios

• • The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia ( high confidence ). Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m It is

2010 very likely global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5

to 1.9] mm yr 2.0 [1.7 to 2.3] mm yr –1

and

–1 that the mean rate of between 1901 and 2010 between 1971 and 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6]mm yr –1 between 1993 and 2010

. Tide-gauge and satellite altimeter data are consistent regarding the higher rate of the latter period.

, Since the early 1970s, glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion from warming together explain about 75% of the observed global mean sea level rise ( high confidence ). Over the period 1993–2010, global mean sea level rise is, with high confidence , consistent with the sum of the observed contributions from • • • • ocean thermal expansion due to warming: changes in glaciers: Greenland ice sheet: Antarctic ice sheet: • land water storage:

[100 Gt yr −1 of ice loss is equivalent to about 0.28 mm yr −1

(1.1 [0.8 to 1.4] mm yr –1 ) (0.76 [0.39 to 1.13] mm yr –1 ) (0.33 [0.25 to 0.41] mm yr –1 ) (0.27 [0.16 to 0.38] mm yr –1 ) and (0.38 [0.26 to 0.49] mm yr –1 )

of global mean sea level rise]

Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081 – 2100 of (a) annual mean surface temperature change, (b) average percent change in annual mean precipitation, (c) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent and

• •

(d) change in ocean surface pH.

Changes in panels (a), (b) and (d) are shown relative to 1986 – 2005. The number of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel.

For panels (a) and (b), hatching indicates regions here the multi-model mean is small compared to internal variability (i.e., less than one standard

• •

deviation of internal variability in 20-year means).

Stippling indicates regions where the multi model mean is large compared to internal variability (i.e., greater than two standard deviations of internal variability in 20-year means) and where 90% of models agree on the sign of change In panel (c), the lines are the modelled means for 1986 − 2005; the filled areas are for the end of the century.

The CMIP5 multi-model mean is given in white colour, the projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of models (number of models given in brackets) that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979 ‒ 2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice extent is given in light blue colour

Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of 1986 – 2005

Eight National Missions on Climate Change

National Solar Mission National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency National Mission on Sustainable Habitat National Water Mission National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Eco-system National Mission for a Green India National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change

Sustainability of Natural Resources

• •

Principles of science and Technology based resource management are developed, and prospects for sustainability are to be explored .

Three generic categories of resource are analyzed: living/environment/ecosystem, and renewable.

exhaustible, i) Emphasizing the lifecycle of exploitation including exhaustion, exploration and substitution.

ii) Exploring population dynamics under natural and harvested regimes for fisheries and forests.

iii) Water is treated in terms of quantity and quality . Throughout, the intersection of natural, economic, and political behavior needs to be explored

Key Questions of Sustainability, The S & T needs to answer

• • • •

Identification of linkages among the global hydrological cycle, climate variability and change, and global biogeochemical cycles ?

How and to what extent is human activity altering the global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles ?

What is the limit of the Earth system for the renewability of freshwater and major biogeochemical constituents needed to support life?, and How much human activity have to change to allow the major cycles of the Earth System to return to more ‘natural’ dynamic and sustainable equilibrium ?

Applications of GIS for Sustainability

1

Environment

•

Inventory of species,

•

Measure environmental impact,

•

Trace pollutants

•

Environment management and planning

•

Topographical information

2

Agriculture

•

Managing crop yields,

•

Monitoring crop rotation techniques,

•

Projecting soil loss for individual farms or entire agricultural regions.

3

Hydrology

•

Assess groundwater ,

•

Visualize watersheds,

•

Lakes and Wetlands

Applications of GIS for Sustainability

4

Land use

5

Geology

• • • • • • • 6

Forestry

• •

Visualize and plan the land use needs of cities, regions, or even national governments Helps in decision making for future growth development Analyze soils and strata, Assess seismic information , Create 3-dimensional displays of geographic features.

Managing and planning of forests To assess conditions through historical analysis, stand inventory, soil types, changing weather patterns, and land-use practices Forest fire mapping Monitor and analyze the temporal and spatial change in forest ecosystem sue to natural and man-made disturbances .

Applications of GIS for Sustainability

7

Risk management

• • • •

To locate areas prone to natural or man-made disasters. Generate a flood forecasting model to identify affected parcels to prioritize for remediation or damage assessment.

To prepare for future assessment of risks Identification of critical prone areas to Landslides and other disasters

8

Water/waste water industry

• • • •

Planning, engineering, operations, maintenance, finance, and administration functions Assessing water quality and quantity Assess relationships such as runoff and groundwater purity To monitor water quality changes within a water body such as a river or bay

Source:- Surat CDP

Flood level During 1998 floods Surat Floods: 1998

Flood Above 6 feet Flood 4’ 6’ Flood 2’ 4’ Flood 0’ 2’

Source:- Surat CDP

Flood level During 2006 floods Surat Floods: 2006

More than 10’ Depth 5’ 10’ Depth 4’ 6’ Depth

• Cause of the urban heat island: – Modification of the land surface by urban development which uses materials which effectively retain heat; – Waste heat generated by energy usage is a secondary contributor.

Urban heat island

  The

urban canopy layer (UCL)

is the layer of air closest to the surface in cities, extending upwards to approximately the mean building height.

Above the urban canopy layer lies the

urban boundary layer (UBL),

which is 1km in thickness.

  

Remedial Options (to reduce by ~ 2.0

o C) Densifying the Tree cover under Urban Forestry Soil Moisture Conservation Rainwater Harvesting Source: Research paper by Swarnima Singh

On

GIS APPLICATION IN URBAN HEAT ISLAND: A CRUSADING ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVER TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Urban Heat Island

• Remote sensing instrument used for UHI:

ASTER:

Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer

•

Advanced along Track Scanning Radiometer

(AASTAR)

and

PALSAR

are used for estimating surface temperature and land cover change • By utilizing

remote sensing data

and implementing

GIS mapping techniques

, change detection over a period of time of the urban areas can be monitored and mapped.

Source: Research paper by Swarnima Singh On

GIS APPLICATION IN URBAN HEAT ISLAND: A CRUSADING ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVER TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Spatial Pattern of Urban Heat Island (an overlay of AASTER AND PALSAR data analysis)

Land Use / Land Cover



Space-borne remote sensing data

can be used for estimation of

biomass and biodiversity,



Geo-spatial modeling

techniques can be employed to estimate

carbon sequestration patterns

Priorities for India as Reflected in NAPCC

Mission Targets Sustainable Habitat

• • • • • •

Improvements in efficiency in buildings; energy Better urban planning and modal shift to public transport Improved management of solid and liquid waste Improve ability of habitats to adapt to climate change Measures for improving advance warning systems for extreme weather events Conservation through appropriate changes in legal and regulatory framework.

• • • •

Deliverables Development of habitat standards sustainable

that lead to robust development strategies while simultaneously addressing climate change related concerns

Preparation of city development plans

that comprehensively address adaptation and mitigation concerns

Preparation

undertake

of comprehensive

mobility plans that enable cities to long-term, energy efficient and cost transport planning and effective Capacity building for undertaking activities

Mission Sustainable Habitat Development of Indices for the Assessment and Monitoring of the Sustainable Storm Water Management Targets Deliverables Parameters/indicators are generally in the form of indices, for systematic and scientific assessment of situation, progress and deficit

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Master Plan Index Natural Drainage System Index Drainage Coverage(Constructed) Index Permeability Index Water bodies Rejuvenation Index Water body Vulnerability Index Water logging Index Area Vulnerability Index Flood Moderation Index Drainage Cleaning Index Complaint Redressal index Climate Change Stress Index Storm water discharge quality Index Sewage Mixing Index Preparedness Index/ Early Warning Index Rainfall Intensity Index System Robustness Index Tidal Index Rain water Harvesting/Artificial Ground water Recharge Index

Appropriate S & T tools for urban flooding are to be identified and customized in the following areas

      

Urban Flood probability assessment Urban Flood impact assessment (in terms of extent, duration and cost) Development of safe, cost-effective, sustainable and environmentally sound operation and management of urban drainage (sewage/ storm water/ storage) systems Early Warning Decision support for planning multi-departmental emergency response planning Operational planning of Urban Water Sheds (surface water management and storage systems) Identifying targeted Urban Flood recovery measures and methodologies Evolve integrated pathways to increase resilience and robustness (for the prevention and mitigation of flood risk in urban areas).

Priority: Flood impacts are to be estimated on a much higher level of detail



Hence, it is necessary to opt for an impact based urban flood management (UFM) by taking the consequences of urban floods as a starting point for the development of responses (by developing new tools that map and analyze flood impacts by fully accounting for concentration, complexity of the urban environment.

differentiation and



Further, such an attempt should involve the assessment of economic impacts of floods on the existing historical/legacy infrastructure as well as the development of new flood resilient areas capable of dealing with larger degrees of uncertainty about the occurrence of extreme flood events.

UFM Prerequisites: Regular Monitoring of Human and Other Factors

    

Land Use changes (sealing of permeability surfaces; deforestation etc. leading to decrease of infiltration and increase in surface run-off) Details of occupation of the flood plain and obstructing natural drainage and flows Upstream drainage efficiency (actual carrying capacity) status Urban sewage and storm water drainage efficiency (non maintenance) status Varying nature and frequency of rain storms (climate change or otherwise)

Estimating Quantum of water accumulation over the Urban Areas

S. No.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Quantum of Water for 1-Cm of Rainfall Received 1-Sq Km area collects about 9.96million liters of water Per every 1-Cm of Rainfall Received

Name Area (Sq. Km)

Delhi Mumbai Kolkata Chennai Hyderabad Bangalore India 1,485 484 531 414 583 534 3,166,285

Quantum of Water (in million liters)

14,791.5

4,820.6

5,288.8

4,123.4

5,806.7

5,318.6

3,15,36,198

On reaching the ground surface, rainfall either seeps into the ground or flows over as runoff that eventually into drains, rivers/lakes etc. as per the designed urban drainage network

Factors that are critical for the traverse of rain water after it falls

   The rate of rainfall - A lot of rain in a short period tends to run off the land into streams rather than soak into the ground.

The topography of the urban land - Topography is the gravitational slope of the land -- the hills, valleys, uneven upward/downward slopes. Water falling on unlevel land drains downhill until it becomes part of a stream, finds a hollow place to accumulate, like a lake, or soaks into the ground

mapping gravitational drainage channels (evolving a high resolution 1:5000 to 1:10000 scale topography is essential for in the urban environment for locating water harvesting structures)

Soil conditions – Identification of suitable zones (high adsorbing soil with low permeability, low adsorbing soil with high permeability) the urban land is

critical for effectively planning for surface runoff reduction

Factors that are critical for the traverse of rain water after it falls



Density of vegetation and Land Cover - It has long been

known that plant growth helps decrease erosion caused by flowing water. Transforming segments of land with plant/grass cover with underlying types of soils as a part of developmental planning of urban areas, effectively slows the speed of the water flowing on it and thus helps to keep soil from eroding over the downward slopes .



Amount of urbanization -

Restoration of natural drainage channels and re-constructing pervious pavements and parking areas is to be attempted to reduce the surface runoff flowing beyond the drawing capacity of storm water drains along side of the roads)

Factors to be accounted for Urban Flood Impacts



Changing Profile of Exposure Vs Flooding



Changing Profile of Vulnerability Vs Flooding



Changing Profile of Flood Intensity/Frequency Vs Flooding

Local Authority level issues

  local authorities and decision-makers responsible for flood security are to learn to how as to make the best use of the continuous flow of rainfall monitoring and urban flood warning information from the national system although such information, even backed with regular technical capacity improvements at NMHSs, may still found to be insufficient in meeting the needs of the local authorities.

Hence, this component of the urban flood early warning systems is decisive in shaping the local flood-warning system (LFWS), in particular the components which supplement the national monitoring and urban flood

warning systems with local scale monitoring networks as planned in

Mumbai and being planned for Hyderabad. Essentially, the solution has

to take into consideration not just the level of flood risk in a given terrain, but also the capabilities of the local authorities as well.

Emerging Urban Local Flood Forecasting Possibilities

   Real-time analysis of 1.

Actual precipitation intensities and accumulated amounts, that are collected by Doppler Weather Radars (DWR) 2.

3.

Local scale high density rainfall measuring networks of the local authorities, satellite derived quantitative precipitation estimates etc., Are to be assimilated in high resolution urban scale NWP models (1-5km grid scale) by using a combination of in situ and telemetry systems for real time data collection.

Practical ultra short range assessment(nowcasting) of urban scale heavy rainfall is currently less than 6-8hours with modern nowcasting systems

(intelligent weather and rainfall analysis systems with quick generation of 3-D local scale visual images with web-GIS interfaces for web hosting ultra short term forecasts).

Nowcasting products will have to be used as an input to drive customised urban

scale hydrological models for generating spatial scenarios of potential run-off

leading to urban flooding expected in segments of urban areas where rate of estimated run-off generated by the high intensity rainfall exceeds the designed drainage capacity.

Immediate Future Prospects

 Although, currently local authorities and their emergency response services in India are largely operating truly basing on general rainfall forecasts formulated by IMDs weather forecasters for larger regions, and with low density of rainfall distribution on recent rainfall (a sparse and non-automated rainfall measurement network, areas not covered by rain intensity measuring DWRs),

the on-going initiatives for rendering improved quality of hydro-meteorological services will certainly improve the local scale urban flash flood risk mapping and delivering capabilities to generate appropriate early warnings in the immediate future.



Early Warning of Urban Floods

     Currently, nowcasting systems with ultra-short-term forecasts (6-8hours) with all supporting tools for weather forecasters are used for operational practice.

Urban area hydrological forecasts will have to be worked out for a relatively smaller urban sectors and also covering larger-scale sub-urban areas for rendering effective local scale urban flood warnings.

Efforts are on for the development/calibrating hydrological models for their hydrological response units (the small urban/catchment areas).

The connection between the precipitation thresholds, reaching to the dangerous levels in the sections controlling small urban sectors with torrential rainfall regime, is to be established by correlating the characteristics of high flood with its triggering factors (balance between likely run-off Vs drainage). On the basis of these correlations, there can be unique pre-established thresholds of the precipitation characteristics (amount, duration, etc.), which can cause local urban floods.

Interpretation and effective utilisation of the emerging Meteorological and Hydrological Situation on continuous basis by the local urban government authorities is critical for effectively responding to the emerging urban flood scenario.

FRAMEWORK FOR URBAN FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT

   Due to very nature of the urban settlements, with human population and various economic activities putting tremendous pressures on the natural resources of the region, it is evident that various development activities influence and interact with each other.

1.

Urban water supply and sanitation 2.

3.

housing settlements pollution control 4.

5.

transport systems industrial activities 6.

health and social welfare

These activities interact and influence each other along side the flood risks and the way such risks are prevented from turning into disasters.

In addition certain other regional development activities beyond the municipal limits such as

agricultural production, watershed management, energy production, and environmental protection

these related activities.

, among others, also effect the flood risk management in urban areas. It is therefore, imperative that flood risks are to be mainstreamed in all

Key questions of land use/cover change research

     What are the major drivers of land-use/cover change from the local to the global scale?

How has been the global land cover changed over the last 300 years?

How will changes in land use affect global land cover in the next 50 to 100 years?

How do current decisions and biophysical processes affect the sustainability of land use at various spatial scales?

How do changes in land use/cover affect climate, global biogeochemical cycles, the global water cycle, soils and biodiversity, and vice versa?

Multi-Hazards (Volcanoes; Earthquakes; Cyclones and other high impact weather phenomena)

      We need to do basic science to better understand the dynamics of a particular phenomenon.

We need to develop observational tools to analyse such events and treat associated physical processes explicitly.

We need to develop experimental and theoretical tools to help understand such events.

We need to develop modelling systems to predict such events.

We need to collaborate with civil authorities, urban planners, the insurance industry, etc., to help minimise the effects of such events.

We need to reduce the vulnerability of cities and build resilience to natural hazards, given the enormous risk posed by the infrastructure and unsustainable development.

2 1 4 3 -3 -4 0 -1 -2 Monsoon Rainfall AMO Nino 3.4

Multi-decadal variations

31-Year running means Year (ending)

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1 -1.2

1 0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

Indian Region

USA East Coast

Russian Region

Europe Region