The Mobile Market Equation - Bienvenidos al Portal IPv6 Cuba

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Transcript The Mobile Market Equation - Bienvenidos al Portal IPv6 Cuba

The Invisible Internet

How Wireless WANS, LANS and PANS and IP Anywhere Will Change Our World

Sponsor: Association for Corporate Growth Speaker: John B. Landry Lead Dog Ventures [email protected]

Is there something going on here?

• H1 2002 Forecasts • 1 Billion Wireless Subscribers

(was 2004!)

• •

Wireless

Phones > WW

Wired

Phones

Mobile

Internet Users >

Internet Users • Verizon offers 300Kbps CDMA Network • Nov 2000: 10B WW SMS Messages Sent • Growth Rate: 50% / Month!

Another Inflection Point?

Oh No.. Not Again!

• • • • Moore’s Law Continues • Processor Price Perfomance Doubles Every 18 Months Gilder’s Law Continues • Bandwidth Multiplies 3X Every 3 Years Metcalfe’s Law Continues • The Value of a Network Increases to the Square of the Number of Participants IBM’s Law Continues • Storage Price Performance Doubles Every 12 Months

All These Innovations Are Now Being Applied to Wireless!

Comic Strip?.. Or Reality Check?

Agenda: Understanding Wireless

…for Fun & Profit

Geography Off-Campus

Open Areas

On-Campus

Office, Home, School, Airport, Hotel

Personal Space

Office, Briefcase, Person

WAN LAN

Technology Off-Campus

Cellular – Kilometers

On-Campus

802.11b

10’s – 100’s Meters

Personal Space

BlueTooth 1-10 Meters

Mobile Business Drivers

U.S. Mobile Worker Market

50 40 30 20 10 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Telecommuters Mobile professionals Mobile data collectors Work extenders

 New Business Expansion  Technology Advances – Better mobile devices and supporting connectivity software – High-speed Internet access  Growing Mobile Solutions  Individual Adoption of Mobile Devices  Blurring of Personal/Professional Time Copyright 2001: John B. Landry

SHD Projected Growth Rates

Source: IDC

49% CAGR

Smart handheld device market 2000 - 12.1mm

2004 - 60.3mm

36% CAGR

Handheld companion market 2000 - 9.4mm

2004 -

32.0mm

22% CAGR

Vertical application device market 2000 - 2.2mm

2004 - 4.8mm

163% CAGR

Smart phone market 2000 - 0.5mm

2004 -

22.9mm

PDA segment PC companion segment Personal companion segment Pen tablet segment Pen notepad segment Keypad handheld segment

25 20 15 10 5

Smart Phone Growth Soars Worldwide!

Rest of World A/P Japan Western Europe US

 Europe will pioneer launch followed quickly by Japan, AP and US  Smart phone products will be built first on GSM, then migrated to 2.5G and 3G wireless networks  Current browser phones will slow adoption of SmartPhones  Symbian, Microsoft, and Palm all investing heavily in this area

0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

The “Off-Campus” Wireless ‘Net

G2.5 and G3 Networks Are Happening Here!

WAN LAN

LAN

PAN

Smart Handheld Devices

Cell Phone Smart Handheld Notebook Smaller Size Info Access Usage Higher Mobility Phone Manufacturer Subsidized Distribution Larger Info Creation Lower Computer Direct

Samsung’s Color VOD Phone

Introduced 5/16/2001!

Handheld Companions OS Platform Battles Continue

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Other Epoc Windows CE Palm OS

Personal Companions Go Wireless

10 9 1 0 3 2 8 5 4 7 6 Pers. Companions Wireless 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

 Wireless Includes Integrated (Palm VII) and Add-Ons (Novatel)  Over 50% wireless in 2004  Low-end products remains strong diluting wireless  Integrated voice confuses market segmentation Copyright 2001: John B. Landry

Samsung SPH-1300

Hybrid Wireless Digital Assistant

• 8-bit Color Display (160x240) • Size: 4.9” x 2.3” x .82” • Weight: 5.5 oz • On-screen Keypad + Graffiti-Pad • Palm Apps + Voice Memo, Voice Dialing, Speakerphone • Active PDA while on phone!

Handspring’s VisorPhone

Palm OS World-Phone & Wireless Modem

•

A Better Mobile Phone?

• Dial from Address Book • Speed Dial with a tap!

• Caller ID and Log • Simple Conference Calling •Wireless Internet Access • 14.4 GSM Cell Modem • eMail & Web Surfing •Short Message Service • SMS Messages Booming • Pager-like Messages Copyright 2001: John B. Landry

The Key Inhibitors: UX and Speed

 The UX (User Experience) Lessons – Microsoft went nowhere until Windows – WWW went nowhere till Mosaic – AOL, Yahoo are an even better UX!

 Mobile Data Success Requires a Dramatically Better (and faster) UX!

– Input Methods: • Keys, Keypads (RIM, Ericsson’s Chatboard, Handwriting Reco, TouchScreen, Speech Reco – Output Displays: • 100 x 65 large graphic • 120 x 100 large graphics 4 - 8 grey levels • 160 x 120 256 colors – or a BFHRC Display using Bluetooth!

The “On-Campus” Wireless ‘Net

Office, Home, School, Airport, Hotel

• IEEE

802.11b

Wireless LANs • 2.4ghz Band – 11Mbps • Viable Alternative to Wired LANS • Components • Access Point / Gateway Bridge • Client: PCMCIA or Integrated –

Your

Home LAN Infrastructure?

• IEEE

802.11a

Wireless LANs • 5ghz Band -

54Mbps!

• Shorter Range, More Power • Same Money.. But No Interoperability!

• Cisco’s Acquisition of Radiata • Wireless Backbone Networks?

Toshiba’s Libretto

Shape of things to come?.. the 'small book'

•600mhz Crusoe CPU with 128/256MB RAM, 10-30GB HD, 10" TFT screen (1280x600), Windows ME, 1 IEEE1394 (FireWire/iLink) video port, PCMCIA Type II slot, 56Kb modem, LaLaVoice Japanese speech recognition software, 2 USB ports, and Bluetooth wireless, 3.5 4.5 hour battery Copyright 2001: John B. Landry

Microsoft’s Tablet PC

The Concept of “Tablet Computing”

•Windows Computer (Whistler) •Word, Excel, PowerPoint, IE •Primary Computer w/ stored eMail, Calendar, Databases, etc.

•Writing Rec, but Ink as Ink!

•Sounds like Pen Computing?

Electrolux’s ScreenFridge

Why? The fridge is the natural place for communication in every family. •Video Family Post-It Notes •eMail & Web Surfing •Narrowcasted News •Customized Radio •Home Security •Food Management •Digital Cook Book / Timer •Server?

Home LANs & Convergence?

•Fridge Server: • Store & Deliver Audio, Photos, Video • Encode/Store Broadcast Content (TIVO, Replay) •Computers: •PCs, Game Consoles, •Appliances •HDTV Monitors •TV: • Players of Encoded & CATV content

Home Wireless IP Network Fridge Server

CATV Modem

Internet

Box Monitor HDTV Tuner

CATV Network

Reverse Mobility

Moving the Computation… Not the Computer

Computational Napster… Sell / Donate your idle cycles!

Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence THINK is a computer-aided drug design program that models interaction between potential drug molecules and a target protein that is involved in the growth of cnacer. Finding positive interactions… could lead to a cure.” Copyright 2001: John B. Landry

Bluetooth:

No Flash in the PAN!



Watch Out! Massive Growth Ahead!

– Short range wireless technology – Small size, low cost ($5 target) – Up to 720 kbps (also supports voice) – Low power consumption – Massive industry support – Spec (1.1) should freeze

NOW

.. And then the fun begins!

WAN LAN

LAN

PAN



Bluetooth enables

Bluetooth Enabled Devices: Projected Annual Shipments

Bluetooth Enabled Device Shipments (Millions) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Min Min Max

•  Industry Convergence – 9 Promoter Companies •

3Com, Ericsson, IBM, Intel, Lucent, Microsoft, Motorola, Nokia and Toshiba

Bluetooth Application Examples

Why did the cell phone call the microwave?

Headset to phone connection Access to phone book from PDA/HPC Updating Navigation equipment from computer route planner Synchronisation of portable devices with desktop PC Connection of computer to mouse, video camera, still camera...

IBM’s Linux Watch

Extreme Bluetooth: Anoto

Revolutionizing Writing Forever!!

Camera: Custom CMOS sensor, 100 FPS Processor: Proprietary ARM based ASIC at 70 MHz

Communication device:

Bluetooth transceiver Battery: TBA Ink cartridge: Standard DIN 16654 Illumination: IR LED Resolution: 0.03 mm Weight: 45g Paper quality: Standard Printing technique: Standard offset Pattern ink: Standard black

Dot spacing:

Nominally 0.3 mm (0.01 inch.)

Total pattern size:

73 000 000 000 000 letter size pages

Minimum readable pattern area:

In Summary

The New Wireless Internet, which extends the reach and capabilities of the wired Internet, will be the driver of another boom in innovation and wealth creation. Once again this massively disruptive technology will upset traditional business models and wreak havoc on conventional assumptions about work, home, family life and education.

You’ve been warned!