Transcript Slide 1

Medical Needs for the
Electronics Industry;
Market Analysis and
Electronic Roadmap Needs.
Terrance J. Dishongh, Ph.D.
Support from:
Intel (Brad Needham, Eric Dishman, Jay Lundell, Margie
Morris), Plexsus (Bill Bartel), 3M, ITF,
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Elder care is returning home again
Poor Houses / Almshouses
“pauper”
Home
“grandma”
Insane Asylum
“inmate”
Only way to save costs but
increase quality is home care.
Home care is fastest growing
segment of health industry.
Home
“grandma”
Assisted Living
“resident”
Hospital
“patient”
Nursing Home
“senior citizen”
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To care for an aging planet
2050
2002
Percentage of Population
over 60 years old
Global Average = 21%
10%
SOURCE: United Nations ▪ “Population Aging ▪ 2002”
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Worldwide age wave is coming
Today…
34 million elders in U.S.
550 million worldwide
5 U.S. workers to 1 retiree
3 Japan workers to 1 retiree
By 2025…
74 million elders in U.S.
1.2 billion worldwide
3 U.S. workers to 1 retiree
2 Japan workers to 1 retiree
Other facts…
80+ years old is fastest growing
“old old” are 2 women : 1 man
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Nurses/caregivers in short
supply
“The 10 fastestgrowing occupations
include medical
assistants, jobs for
whom are expected to
grow by 59 percent, or
215,000 new jobs;
network systems and
data communications
analysts, positions for
whom the BLS expects
to jump by 57 percent,
or 106,000 new jobs;
and physician
assistants, for whom
the BLS projects a 49
percent rise, or 31,000
new jobs.”
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, pub in CNN/Money.com, “Where the jobs will be
Greatest employment growth is likely to be in service industries, according to new labor study.” By
Jeanne Sahadi, Feb 13, 2004.
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Boomers spending big on health
 “The biggest growth in healthcare spending these days isn't
coming from today's elderly.
It's coming from tomorrow's
elderly -- the baby boomers
and their younger siblings.”
 “Per capita spending among
Americans aged 30 to 50 rose
more than 75% between 1987
and 2000.”
Source: WSJ: “Tomorrow's Elderly Fuel Health-Care Spending And Strain the System” 1-25-04
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The global challenge simply
put
 Increase the quality of care & of life…
 for twice the number of seniors…
 while reducing healthcare costs.
- Current healthcare system is optimized for treating
disease; innovation is clinic-and-pharma centric
- Have to invent system optimized for wellness (prevention,
early detection, compliance, caregiver support)
- Must put technologies into everyday lives of people; must
put the home, consumer, & informal caregivers “in the
loop” and offload formal institutions when appropriate
- It will take decades to achieve, but must start R&D
(research & debate) now if we ever hope to get there
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Worldwide healthcare crisis is here
- Every major world economy has health as biggest percentage
- Nursing shortage in many parts of the world
- South Korea and Japan technology infrastructure
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Result: Home care inflection point
“Healthcare’s costs, coverage problems and demographic
pressures mean system overload; it’s formal institutions can’t
cope with the future. What will ease the pain? A major shift,
enabled by technology, to self-care, mobile care, home care.
- Forrester Report, Dec 2002
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Market Analysis
 Prismark estimates that medical electronics
equipment production will be $39.5Bn in 2004,
accounting for about 4% of the global electronics
industry.
 This market is expected to continue to increase at
an average rate of 4.4% per year through 2008.
 Growth is primarily driven by the worldwide
demographical shift to an older population, which
indicates a continuing increase in medical care
spending.
 Medical care is already the single largest
component of the US GDP.
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Market Analysis
Outsourcing and R&D
•Prismark estimates that 62% of medical electronics equipment
will be assembled in the Americas in 2004.
•This region is followed by Europe 21%, Japan 10%, and the
Rest of Asia 7%,
• Most medical electronics systems (by value) are produced in the
region where the products are consumed.
•However, several major medical electronics companies, such
as Siemens and GE, are increasing design and assembly
activities in lower-cost regions, such as China.
•As the percentage of medical electronics consumed in developing
economies increases, a greater percentage of medical electronics
systems will be produced there.
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Market Analysis
$Bn
M44.273mw-med
$80
$39.5Bn
4.0% of
Electronics Industry
$60
4.4% CAAGR
2004-2008
2004
$47Bn
$39.5Bn
$40
$37Bn
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
70%
62%
60%
50%
$20
40%
30%
21%
20%
10%
10%
0%
$0
2002
2003
2004
2005
7%
Americas
2006
Japan
Europe
2007
Asia/ROW
2008
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Market Analysis
Hearing Aids
2004
Units
(Est.)
6M
Pacemakers
0.8M
Phonak, Starkey, Oticon,
Widex
Implantable External
Defibrillator (ICD)
0.2M
Medtronic, St. Jude, Guidant
Automated External
Defibrillator (AED)
0.13M
Philips, Medtronic, Zoll
Medical, Cardiac Science
Ultrasound
0.06M
Philips, GE, Siemens,
Toshiba
Magnetic Resonance
Imaging (MRI)
0.003M
GE, Siemens, Philips, Hitachi,
Toshiba
Product
Major Suppliers
Siemens, GN Resound
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NEMI Roadmap Issue
 Situation Analysis
–NEMI is addressing the rise in the electronic
healthcare sector.
–Convergence of Market Demands and
Regulatory Issues are Driving Action in two
different directions.
 Critical (Infrastructure) Issues –
– American Retirees should double by 2025 putting
excessive demand on the healthcare system.
– Demand for Healthcare is outpacing the supply.
Especially as ‘boomers’ age.
– No-lead issues with chlorine bleach.
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Convergence = new home health platform
• Digital home entertainment infra can be used for health
• Everyday health through everyday devices
• Personalized, proactive health info/reminders/agents
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NEMI Roadmap Issue
Needs in the Industry
1. Greater IT infrastructure to drive diagnostics
and patient records. (Bush has $100M into
Patient Electronic Records Research)
2. There is not a complete architecture between
POC, monitoring, compliance, diagonistics
and records. (New Technology is not needed
as much as integration).
3. Growing number of PAN based companies
show constant monitoring and sensor
networks are close at hand.
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Issues and Future Trends
 MEM’s and Implantable Devices are a growing
market segment.
– New Research near to market
– Ion Sensitive Field Effect Transistors
– Inductive recharging
 Impact to national economy on healthcare will
force the need for less expensive systems.
– 74 million elders in 2025
– Impact is a national trend toward home health
technologies in the long term
 “Integration and Interface Design are strongly
needed.” Eric Dishman Testimony to House
Subcommittee on Aging.
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Why is Intel here?
 Grow our markets: supply computing and
communications technologies to a broadly defined home health
& wellness market which is poised for massive growth worldwide
 Healthy workforce: insure our own 80,000 employees
worldwide have tools, technologies, and training to care for their
own aging parents
 Healthy economy for business: catalyze new
paradigms of health care to head off looming worldwide
economic crisis from high-cost, clinic-centric care that cannot
scale to meet the needs of the age wave
We will never be a healthcare company.
We supply technology ingredients. But
we continue to lead R&D in new areas.
And some new players will shape next
generation technologies for the next
generation of seniors.
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Intel’s Proactive Health Lab
Evidenced-BasedTechnology
Technology Research
Research
Evidence-Based
http://www.intel.com/research/prohealth/
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Intel’s Proactive Health Lab
http://www.intel.com/research/prohealth/
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Intel’s Proactive Health Lab
http://www.intel.com/research/prohealth/
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Ion Sensitive Field Effect
Transistor (ISFET)
DNA Polymerase
Marker for ACGT Nucleotides by pH changes
Purushothaman and Toumazou
IEEE PROC 2001
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Intel’s Precision Biology Lab
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Intel’s Research Council grants
http://www.intel.com/research/university
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CAST partnership with AAHSA
http://www.agingtech.org
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CAST partnership with AAHSA
http://www.agingtech.org
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ETAC consortium with Alz Assoc
http://www.alz.org
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“Health care is the mother of all big businesses
…. this is life and death—some people will get
access to this ‘health-care mainframe,’ and
everybody else dies.”
- Andy Grove
Source: “Intel's Andy Grove: The Next Battles in Tech: The IT visionary says tech needs
to learn to think bigger,” by Brent Schlender, FORTUNE, Monday, April 28, 2003 28