Transcript Using administrative data to estimate vehicle

Business Statistics Seminar Programme- 11th November 2009
13:30 Registration
14:00 Opening remarks - Richard McMahon, CSO
14:20 Using administrative data to estimate vehicle-kilometres for the national vehicle fleet
- Ken Moore, CSO
14:40 Moving the Irish Economy around the Globe: An overview of Irish Shipping and Port Statistics
- Glenn Murphy, Irish Maritime Development Organsiation
15:00 Linking data to calculate air passenger-kilometres and emissions - Sheona Gilsenan, CSO
15:20 Break
15:50 Developments in vehicle licensing & registration statistics - Gregg Patrick, CSO
16:10 Freight Transport on the Island of Ireland - Dr. Eoin Maginnis, InterTrade Ireland
16:30 Discussion and closing remarks
Using administrative data to estimate
vehicle-kilometres for the national vehicle
fleet
Ken Moore, Transport Statistics, CSO
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
Background
Statistician in area of Transport for 5 years
Main responsibilities:
•Aviation Statistics
•Maritime Statistics
•Rail Statistics
•Transport Omnibus
•Road Vehicle Kilometres – working on this project
for last six months
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
Overview – What will be covered
•Drivers – Uses of Vehicle Kilometres data
•Data Sources
•Results
•Future Developments and Considerations
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
Vehicle Kilometres – Definition:
•Standard Unit of measurement representing the
movement of a vehicle over 1km
Drivers - Why data on Vehicle Kilometres
Travelled (VKT) is needed?
•Transport Policy and Planning
•Fuel Consumption
•Emissions from Road Transport
•Road Safety Policy
•Eurostat requirement – harmonised data
collection
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
Main Methods used internationally for
calculation of VKT
• Traffic Counts – automatic and manual
• Household Surveys
• Fuel Consumption
• Odometer Readings
(Method adopted by Ireland)
Odometer readings provide the distance travelled by a
tested vehicle in a specific period which is converted
into kilometres travelled per day
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
Example of calculating the VKT using odometer readings
Vehicle Inspection
06 March 2006
38,158 km
Vehicle Inspection
21 May 2008
66,337 km
807 days
28,179 km
2006
2007
2008
VKT 2007
34.92 km per day
12,746 km per year
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
7
Commercial
Vehicle Test Data
Private Database
- Motorcheck.ie
NCT Data
National
Vehicle File
(Dept. of
Transport)
Vehicle
Registration
Data (Revenue)
Dataset of Irish Registered Vehicles by:
* Vehicle Type
* Odometer Reading
* Fuel Type
* Date of Reading
* Vehicle Size
* Unit of Measurement
* County of First Licensing
* Country of last registration
(
(If imported vehicle)
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
8
Results
Total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled by National Fleet, 2008
•Data available for period 2000 – 2008
Taxation Class
VKT Travelled
Average
Average Fleet Annual KM
Size
Travelled
% of Vehicle
Kilometres
•Results published in Transport Omnibus, 2008
million
Private cars
31,173.2
1,903,591
16,376
71.19%
up to
1000cc
1,969.7
168,872
11,664
4.50%
1001 to
1200cc
1,678.4
128,765
13,035
3.83%
1201 to
1400cc
9,842.6
666,435
14,769
22.48%
1401 to
1600cc
6,190.3
358,357
17,274
14.14%
1601 to
1800cc
2,356.9
129,024
18,267
5.38%
1801 to
2000cc
7,305.6
340,415
21,464
16.68%
2001cc +
2,289.8
111,725
20,495
5.23%
•Also available on CSO’s Database Direct facility in near
future
•Estimates for 2009 available in mid 2010
Goods
vehicles
7,744.6
348,591
22,217
17.69%
Up to
1016kg ulw
127.9
7,107
17,995
0.29%
1017kg to
2032kg ulw
5,142.9
255,217
20,151
11.74%
2033kg to
10160kg ulw
1,600.2
66,488
24,067
3.65%
879.4
19,779
44,463
2.01%
10161kg +
CSO Business Statistics
Seminar
763.6
38,294
19,940 - 11
1.74%
November, 2009
Motorcycles
Tractors and
Machinery
1,723.8
79,926
21,567
3.94%
9
Total VKT by National Fleet by Vehicle Type, 2000 - 2008
VKT Million
2000
Of
Which
Total
Year
30,882
Private
Cars
23,532
4,075
362
2,913
24,664
4,577
423
3,054
25,142
5,048
529
3,125
5,562
597
3,292
6,116
650
3,449
6,670
716
3,534
7,409
809
3,682
7,891
972
3,841
7,745
1,135
3,738
Total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled by National Fleet, 2008
2001
32,719
Taxation Class
VKT Travelled
Average
Average Fleet Annual KM
Size
Travelled
Goods
PSV (Small) Others
Vehicles
% of Vehicle
Kilometres
million
2002
Private cars
33,844
up to
1000cc
2003
2004
1001 to
1200cc
1201 to
1400cc
35,488
37,129
1401 to
1600cc
2005
1601 to
1800cc
38,892
1801 to
2000cc
2006
2007
2008
2001cc +
Goods
vehicles
40,915
31,173.2
1,903,591
16,376
71.19%
1,969.7
168,872
11,664
1,678.4
128,765
13,035
9,842.6
666,435
14,769
6,190.3
358,357
17,274
14.14%
2,356.9
129,024
18,267
27,972
7,305.6
340,415
21,464
16.68%
2,289.8
111,725
20,495
29,015
4.50%
26,037
3.83%
22.48%
26,913
5.38%
5.23%
7,744.6
348,591
22,217
Up to
1016kg ulw
127.9
7,107
17,995
1017kg to
2032kg ulw
5,142.9
255,217
20,151
2033kg to
10160kg ulw
1,600.2
66,488
24,067
3.65%
879.4
19,779
44,463
2.01%
43,053
43,790
10161kg +
17.69%
30,349
0.29%
31,173
11.74%
CSO Business Statistics
Seminar
763.6
38,294
19,940 - 11
1.74%
November, 2009
Motorcycles
Tractors and
Machinery
1,723.8
79,926
21,567
3.94%
10
Total VKT by National Fleet by Vehicle Type, 2000 - 2008
VKT Million
50,000
45,000
Total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled by National Fleet, 2008
40,000
Taxation Class
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Average
Average Fleet Annual KM
Size
Travelled
% of Vehicle
Kilometres
million
35,000
30,000
VKT Travelled
Private cars
31,173.2
1,903,591
16,376
71.19%
up to
1000cc
1,969.7
168,872
11,664
4.50%
Total
1001 to
1200cc
1,678.4
128,765
13,035
3.83%
Private cars
1201 to
1400cc
9,842.6
666,435
14,769
22.48%
1401 to
1600cc
6,190.3
358,357
17,274
14.14%
1601 to
1800cc
2,356.9
129,024
18,267
5.38%
1801 to
2000cc
7,305.6
340,415
21,464
16.68%
2001cc +
2,289.8
111,725
20,495
5.23%
Goods
vehicles
Goods vehicles
PSV (Small)
Other vehicle classes
7,744.6
348,591
22,217
17.69%
Up to
1016kg ulw
127.9
7,107
17,995
0.29%
1017kg to
2032kg ulw
5,142.9
255,217
20,151
11.74%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2033kg to
10160kg ulw
10161kg +
1,600.2
66,488
24,067
3.65%
879.4
19,779
44,463
2.01%
CSO Business Statistics
Seminar
763.6
38,294
19,940 - 11
1.74%
November, 2009
Motorcycles
Tractors and
Machinery
1,723.8
79,926
21,567
3.94%
11
Annual Average VKT for Private Cars by Fuel, 2000-2008
VKT
30,000
25,000
Total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled by National Fleet, 2008
20,000
Taxation Class
VKT Travelled
Average
Average Fleet Annual KM
Size
Travelled
% of Vehicle
Kilometres
million
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Private cars
31,173.2
1,903,591
16,376
71.19%
up to
1000cc
1,969.7
168,872
11,664
4.50%
1001 to
1200cc
1,678.4
128,765
13,035
3.83%
1201 to
1400cc
9,842.6
666,435
14,769
22.48%
1401 to
1600cc
6,190.3
358,357
17,274
14.14%
1601 to
1800cc
2,356.9
129,024
18,267
5.38%
1801 to
2000cc
7,305.6
340,415
21,464
16.68%
2001cc +
2,289.8
111,725
20,495
5.23%
2000
Goods
vehicles
2001
7,744.6
2002
2003
348,591
22,217
17.69%
7,107
17,995
0.29%
Up to
1016kg ulw
127.9
1017kg to
2032kg ulw
5,142.9
255,217
20,151
11.74%
2033kg to
10160kg ulw
1,600.2
66,488
24,067
3.65%
879.4
19,779
44,463
2.01%
10161kg +
Petrol
Diesel
CSO Business Statistics
Seminar
763.6
38,294
19,940 - 11
1.74%
November, 2009
Motorcycles
Tractors and
Machinery
1,723.8
79,926
21,567
2004
3.94%
2005
2006
2007
2008
All Fuels
12
Annual Average VKT for Goods Vehicles by Size, 2000-2008
VKT
55,000
50,000
Total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled by National Fleet, 2008
45,000
Taxation Class
VKT Travelled
Average
Average Fleet Annual KM
Size
Travelled
% of Vehicle
Kilometres
million
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
Private cars
31,173.2
1,903,591
16,376
71.19%
up to
1000cc
1,969.7
168,872
11,664
4.50%
1001 to
1200cc
1,678.4
128,765
13,035
3.83%
1201 to
1400cc
9,842.6
666,435
14,769
22.48%
1401 to
1600cc
6,190.3
358,357
17,274
14.14%
1601 to
1800cc
2,356.9
129,024
18,267
5.38%
1801 to
2000cc
7,305.6
340,415
21,464
16.68%
2001cc +
2,289.8
111,725
20,495
5.23%
Goods
vehicles
< 2 tonne
2 - 5 tonne
5 - 7.5 tonne
7.5 to 10 tonne
10 - 12.5 tonne
> 12.5 tonne
7,744.6
348,591
22,217
17.69%
Up to
1016kg ulw
127.9
7,107
17,995
0.29%
1017kg to
2032kg ulw
5,142.9
255,217
20,151
11.74%
2033kg to
10160kg ulw
1,600.2
66,488
24,067
3.65%
879.4
19,779
44,463
2.01%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
10161kg +
CSO Business Statistics
Seminar
763.6
38,294
19,940 - 11
1.74%
November, 2009
Motorcycles
Tractors and
Machinery
1,723.8
79,926
21,567
3.94%
13
% change in total VKT, fleet size and annual VKT for
Private Cars and Goods Vehicles, 2000 - 2008
80%
70%
Total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled by National Fleet, 2008
60%
50%
Taxation Class
VKT Travelled
Average
Average Fleet Annual KM
Size
Travelled
% of Vehicle
Kilometres
million
40%
Private cars
31,173.2
1,903,591
16,376
71.19%
up to
1000cc
1,969.7
168,872
11,664
4.50%
1001 to
1200cc
1,678.4
128,765
13,035
3.83%
1201 to
1400cc
9,842.6
666,435
14,769
22.48%
1401 to
1600cc
6,190.3
358,357
17,274
14.14%
1601 to
1800cc
2,356.9
129,024
18,267
5.38%
1801 to
2000cc
7,305.6
340,415
21,464
16.68%
2001cc +
2,289.8
111,725
20,495
5.23%
7,744.6
348,591
22,217
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
2000
Goods
vehicles
Up to
2001
1016kg ulw
2002
127.9
2003
7,107
1017kg to
2032kg ulw
5,142.9
255,217
2033kg to
10160kg ulw
1,600.2
66,488
Fleet Size Goods Vehicles
Goods Vehicle Avg VKT
10161kg +
879.4
19,779
17,995
17.69%
2004
0.29%
20,151
11.74%
24,067
3.65%
Fleet Size Private Cars
44,463
79,926
2007
2008
Total VKT All Vehicles
2.01%
CSO Business Statistics
Seminar
763.6
38,294
19,940 - 11
1.74%
November, 2009
1,723.8
2006
Private Car Avg VKT
Motorcycles
Tractors and
Machinery
2005
21,567
3.94%
14
Percentage of VKT by Vehicle Type, 2008
Private cars
Goods vehicles
Other Vehicle Classes
11%
18%
71%
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
15
Total VKT by National Fleet by Vehicle Type, 2008
Vehicle Type
VKT
Travelled
(million)
Private Cars
Average
Fleet Size
31,173
Total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled by National Fleet, 2008
Goods Vehicles
Taxation Class
Motorcycles
16,376
348,951
22,217
764
million
38,294
19,940
79,926
24,567
27,854
40,744
8,681
31,779
% of Vehicle
Kilometres
Private cars
31,173.2
1,903,591
16,376
71.19%
up to
1000cc
1,969.7
168,872
11,664
4.50%
1001 to
1200cc
1,678.4
128,765
13,035
3.83%
1201 to
1400cc
9,842.6
666,435
1401 to
1600cc
6,190.3
358,357
1601 to
1800cc
2,356.9
1801 to
2000cc
2001cc +
Tractors and
Machinery
PSV (Small)
Buses and
Coaches
Exempt Vehicles
Goods
vehicles
Other classes
Total
1,903,591
7,745
Average
Average Fleet Annual KM
VKT Travelled
Size
Travelled
1,724
1,135
276
22.48%
17,274
14.14%
129,024
18,267
5.38%
7,305.6
340,415
21,464
111,725
433
16.68%
2,289.8
20,495
5.23%
25,601
16,911
542
22,217
17.69%
37,030
14,625
17,995
0.29%
7,744.6
348,591
Up to
1016kg ulw
127.9
7,107
1017kg to
2032kg ulw
5,142.9
2033kg to
10160kg ulw
10161kg +
14,769
43,790
2,469,566
255,217
20,151
11.74%
1,600.2
66,488
24,067
3.65%
879.4
19,779
44,463
2.01%
CSO Business Statistics
Seminar
763.6
38,294
19,940 - 11
1.74%
November, 2009
Motorcycles
Tractors and
Machinery
Average
Annual KM
Travelled
1,723.8
79,926
21,567
3.94%
16
VKT by Private Car by Year of Registration, 2008
30,000
25,000
Kilometres
20,000
National
Average
15,000
10,000
Private Cars
5,000
0
Year of Registration
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
17
Average VKT by Private Car by Region, 2008
VKT
19,000
18,392
18,660
18,200
18,000
17,241
17,000
17,493
17,322
16,000
16,376
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,886
12,000
Border Dublin Mid East Mid Midland South
West
East
VKT By Region
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
South
West
West
National Average
18
Average VKT by Private Car by County of Licensing, 2008
National Average
Leitrim
Roscommon
Longford
Donegal
Cavan
Laois
Offaly
Mayo
Westmeath
Monaghan
Meath
Tipperary
Wexford
Sligo
Carlow
Clare
Galway
Kilkenny
Kerry
Louth
Limerick
Kildare
Wicklow
Cork
Waterford
Dublin
VKT
0
5,000
10,000
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
15,000
20,000
KM
25,000
19
Issues Encountered
•No unit of measurement recorded prior to 2007 for NCT data had to determine if miles or km
•Number of records exist where odometer reading has dropped
since last inspection
•Limited data available for new vehicles which fall within remit of
NCT (less than 4 years of age) and for certain vehicle types (e.g.
motorcycles)
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
20
Future Considerations
•No data on VKT for foreign registered vehicles travelling in
Ireland
•Unsure of what proportion of VKT is attributable to travel within
or outside Ireland
•Possible use of results from pilot Household Travel Survey to
determine VKT by age, gender, time of day, purpose of journey
etc. while also estimating passenger kilometres for Private Car
Fleet using data on car occupancy rates
•Harmonised data available in future from Eurostat for
international comparisons
•Greater coverage needed for vehicle classes not falling within
remit of NCT and CVT programmes
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
21
Contact Details
1
Ken Moore,
Transport Statistics,
CSO.
[email protected]
00 353 21 4535319
CSO Business Statistics Seminar - 11
November, 2009
22