Transcript Prospects for Hybrid, Diesel and Hydrogen Vehicles - ITS

CA GHG Standards: Can the
Auto Industry Survive Pavley?
K.G. Duleep
Managing Director, EEA
An ICF International Company
EISA and its Effect
 In 2007, Congress passed EISA, requiring at
least 40% improvement over 2007 FE levels of
about 24 mpg CAFÉ for Cars + Light trucks, by
2020 – about 4% per year non-compounded.
 Congress also required NHTSA to make the
standards “attribute” based so that
manufacturers offering products with different
attributes comply with different standards.
 NHTSA proposed a set of standards for the
2011 to 2015 period that increase FE by more
than 4% a year(?) over that period
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Proposed 2015 CAFE Standards
CAFE Standard - 2015
50.00
Fuel Economy Target (mpg)
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Vehicle Footprint (ft^2)
LDV
LDT
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California GHG Standards
 California has enacted a set of GHG standards
for the 2010 – 2016 period and EPA may
approve these standards soon.
 Tailpipe GHG emissions are proportional to fuel
consumption for a given fuel, hence the claim
that California standards are fuel economy
standards in disguise.
 If the standard is interpreted as a tailpipe CO2
standard then the equivalent fuel economy
standard is ~43mpg for cars but only 26.7 mpg
for trucks
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Provisions of the CA GHG Standard
 However, the CA GHG regulation provides
credits for air-conditioner improvements (not
tested on the fuel economy cycle) and
alternative fuel use.
 The credits are relatively large and the AC
credit alone can reduce the 2016 requirement
to 40.5 mpg for cars and 25.5 mpg for trucks.
 Ethanol (E85) use provides a huge 26% credit,
and if 10% of new cars and trucks use E85 in
2016, standards are reduced by another 1 mpg
 Unlimited trading between car and light truck
GHG emissions is allowed.
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Federal FE and CA GHG Standards
 Comparing the CAFÉ standard to the CA GHG
standard requires a number of assumptions on
fleet sales mix in 2015, AC credits and Flexfuel vehicle and EV sales.
 Reasonable assumptions regarding the
variables of interest show that on a car + light
truck fleet basis, the two standards are not
very different and can be reconciled from a FE
viewpoint.
 However, the CA standards do provide
additional GHG benefits from AC units and
encourage alternative fuel use.
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Hypothetical 2015 Comparison
PC
CA GHG STD
AC CREDIT
E85 + BEV/PHEV
NET CA STD
CAFÉ - 0.6 MPG
FFV CREDIT
LDT1
LDT2
213 g/mi
341 g/mi
15 g/mi
16 g/mi
7 g/mi
9 g/mi
235 g/mi
37.8MPG
35.1MPG
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366 g/mi
24.3MPG
28.0MPG
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Outline of Presentation
 Focus of this presentation is potential to
meet the 40% improvement in fuel
economy mandated by EISA by 2020.
 Potential to meet interim standard that is
front loaded for 2015 examined.
 Principal focus is on technology availability
and cost to meet standards.
 Focus on consumer reaction to standards
and mix shifting also briefly described.
 Fuel prices assumed to be below $2.80 per
gallon in 2020, per EIA 2008 forecast.
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Improving Vehicle Fuel Economy
 Methods to improve vehicle fuel economy
are well understood from knowledge of
energy loss
 General methods are
- improve engine peak efficiency potential
- reduce losses at light load from throttling
- reduce weight, drag and rolling resistance
- reduce accessory load and eliminate idle
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EEA/ICF Methodology
 We monitor technology developments
worldwide through the trade press and
key international conferences.
 Preliminary analysis of potential based on
research papers and prototype data.
 Extensive follow up on technology
attributes and lead time with
manufacturers and Tier I suppliers.
 All cost data obtained from high level
contacts at Tier I suppliers, who are now
major technology developers.
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Short Term Engine Technologies
 Technologies in the pipeline now
- Variable Valve Lift ( 2-step/
continuous)
- Gasoline Direct Injection with CR
increased by ~2 points (lean burn
longer term for US, used in Europe)
- Cylinder cutout ( V6/8 only)
- Turbo- GDI- VVT combination
- Reduced Engine Friction
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2015 Engine Technology Potential
2 –step valve lift
4 to 5%
$125 -175
Continuous valve
lift
Gasoline Direct
Injection (GDI)
Turbo – GDI
7 to 8%
$300 -400
3 to 4%
$160 –
250
13 to 15% $ 0 to 650
Friction Reduction
2 to 4%
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$30 to 70
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Mid-term Engine Technology
 Most promising development is cam-less valve
actuation which offers potential to reduce
throttling loss to near zero, and make Atkinson
cycle possible at light load.
 Cam-less engine will be key enabler for
gasoline HCCI in longer term
 “Half cam-less” engine will enter production in
2014/2015 in luxury cars with about 15%+ FE
improvement at a cost of $500 to $700.
 More advanced valve strategies may allow
mixed mode 2-stroke/ 4-stroke engines by
2020.
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Valeo Electromagnetic Camless
Valve Actuation Schematic
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2025 Engine Technology Potential
“Half cam-less”
engine
Full cam-less HCCI
with GDI
Advanced friction
reduction
GDI lean burn
15 – 16% $400 to
600
19 – 22% $1000 to
1500
4 to 6 % ~$100
17 to 19
%
~ 25% ?
Combination with
turbo
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$1000 to
1500
~ $1500
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Transmission Technology
 While more gear ratios and wider ratio range
allows better matching of engine to load,
reduction of internal losses (especially in the
torque converter) is also important.
 Future transmission options seem to be
shaping up as follows:
- Six/Seven speed automatics for RWD and
larger FWD cars
- CVT for smaller FWD cars and small trucks
- AMT (6-/ 7-speed) for sporty cars.
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Transmission Technology Benefits
Six speed automatic
4 to 5 %
CVT (small cars)
6 to 8 %
AMT (sports cars)
7 to 8 %
Torque converter
elimination
3 to 4 %
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$100 to
150
$150 to
200
$150 to
200
~0
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Reducing Vehicle Energy Demand
 Weight reduction is possible but quite
expensive. While up to 20% weight reduction
is technically possible, only 5 to 10% may be
practical at reasonable cost ~ $60 per percent
 Drag and rolling resistance reductions of 10 to
20% can be achieved by 2020.
 Driving the accessories electrically is more
efficient than belt drive, since accessories can
be used ‘on-demand’. Electric Power Steering
and Water Pump are the most effective.
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Idle Stop- Start
 New “intelligent” starter motor design pre
engages engine when stopped, resulting in
faster, quieter start, even with 14V system.
 Electrical system must be upgraded with
additional battery to withstand start cycles.
 System will also require electrical AC drive
and transmission pump + “hill holder” for
automatic transmissions.
 Electrical upgrades will facilitate electric
accessories such as power steering and
water pump, with additional FE benefit.
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Idle Stop Start System
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Maximum Potential of Conventional
Technology (FE Increase)
Engine &
Transmission
Weight, drag and
tire loss reduction
Accessories
Idle Stop
2006 –
2016 –
2015
2025
15 – 19 % 22 – 28 %
7– 11 %
11 – 16 %
2–3%
3–5%
3–4%
2-3%
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Summary of Conventional
Technology Potential
 Overall, the sum of all conventional
technologies can lead to a 33 + 3% FE
increase by 2020 and possibly, up to 50 + 5 %
FE increase by 2030.
 The inability of manufacturers to change
technology rapidly will limit the reduction
actually attainable to lower values.
 Major conclusion is that hybrids and diesels are
required to meet the 40% improvement goal
for 2020 and will require a market penetration
of 12 to 15% combined.
 Of course, consumer preference changes to
2020 can help or hurt these values.
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Types of Hybrids
 Meeting the 40% 2020 requirement and future
requirements will require relatively rapid
transition to electric drive -100% by 2030?
 A large number of “hybrid” designs have been
unveiled, each with unique attributes.
 Four types that will be in the US market and span
the range of designs




Belt drive Alternator Starter (BAS)
Crankshaft mounted single motor (IMA)
Dual Motor “full” hybrids (Prius/Escape)
Plug-in hybrid vehicles.
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Common Attributes of Hybrids
 Hybrids must fully exploit all synergies with
drive train and accessories to provide large
improvements in fuel economy.
 Hybrids provide large fuel economy gains only
in stop-and go driving.
 Benefits deteriorate in very hot/cold weather
due to space conditioning needs.
 Hybrids not suited for cargo hauling or high
continuous load operation.
 Different geographies and densities provide
different opportunities for different designs.
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Hybrid System Benefits
 BAS systems using existing 14V electrical
system can be cheap but it will provide limited
FC reduction, ~ 15%
 The Toyota system can be very efficient with
FC reduction approaching 45% but has the
disadvantages of high price, ~US$5000-7000
 One- motor systems of the Honda IMA type
could be more cost effective than other types
while offering significant FC reduction, ~30%.
 Different manufacturers have very different
assesments of what will ultimately succeed.
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Plug-in Hybrids
 Definition of PHEV varies on vehicle capability
in all-electric mode.
 Type, range in (semi) EV mode and battery
cost issues dominate technical debate.
 However, consumer acceptance and likely level
of electricity use issues are probably more
important than technical issues.
 At present, difficult to make any economic case
for purchase even with off-peak electricity.
 GHG benefits are currently quite small in the
US relative to a hybrid, and de-carbonization of
the electric sector needs to occur first.
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Electric Vehicles
 Li-Ion Battery technology has now advanced to
the point where 200+km range is possible, but
cost is still high. ZEV mandate requires such
vehicles in large numbers by 2020.
 EV costs are being driven by idea that they
should replace rather complement typical cars
and offer all their attributes.
 City car type EV designs can be inexpensive
and very efficient, and can serve urban
commuters or be a rental vehicle.
 However, ideal applications mirror those
situations well served by mass transit. Hence,
City EVs may have unintended consequences of
shifting people away from mass transit!
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Diesel Issues
 Unlike a hybrid, the diesel’s fuel efficiency
benefit is more robust across all driving
conditions and under load.
 Cost and benefit on cycle comparable to IMA
hybrid, but GHG benefit is lower due to higher
carbon content of fuel.
 Terrific low-end torque makes it well suited to
cargo hauling and towing .
 Diesel fuel subsidy in EU and some developing
countries creates incorrect incentives for light
vehicle dieselization. Some studies show
diesels in EU have double the VMT of gasoline!
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Diesel Costs and Benefits
 Current diesel engines add $1500 (4 cyl.) to
3000 (V-8) for the engine alone and another
$700 to $1200 for emissions after-treatment.
 FE can be increased by 30 to 35% in
combination with other changes.
 Significant additional improvement is possible
with a diesel- hybrid combination, with some
cost reduction in emission control.
 Diesel market in the US seems to be fading
with rapidly rising diesel fuel prices.
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Road Map to 40% Fuel Economy Improvement by 2020
80% of Market
($1,250)
10+% of Market
($3,000)
10+% of Market
($4,000)
Conventional Engine/
Transmission
Improvement
Clean Diesel with
Advanced
Transmission
Advanced Hybrid
21 to 24%
(
30 to 36%
40 to 46%
Start / Stop
3 to 4%
Total Drivetrain
($1,700)
27 to 33%
($280)
Body and Tire
Improvements
Total Fuel Economy
Improvement of 40
to 45%
($120)
Accessory
Improvements
3 to 4%
8 to 15%
($2,100)
*(Typical Retail Price Impact for a Midsize Car) ICF International Inc.
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Technology Summary
 Conventional technology improvements for
gasoline vehicles continue to be far more costeffective than alternatives.
 Improvements of about 33% can be realized
with conventional technology, which falls short
of the 40% requirement by 2020
 Hybrids will need to penetrate 10 to 15% of
the market to meet the 40% target. The
simpler Honda type system may become
dominant by 2020.
 Diesel LDV market faces major questions with
diesel fuel price hike and we predict restricted
share of about 5%.
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Market Issues for 2015 & 2020
 Raising prices beyond ‘free market’ levels
results in consumers moving to smaller
vehicles and purchasing fewer vehicles.
 Proposed DOT standards are by vehicle
footprint or size so that relative stringency of
standards is an issue in determining
comparative costs by size.
 The proposed 2015 standards for cars has a
very ‘steep’ curve that requires 32 mpg to 42
mpg over a small footprint range. This could
invite gaming or selling larger vehicles
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Market Issues- Continued
 Without gaming, CAFE standards appear to
have only small effects on mix shift. On the
other hand, Pavley could cause mix shifts
towards larger trucks due to the easier GHG
standard for these vehicles.
 The last 6 to 7% FE improvement obtained
from diesels and hybrids are relatively
expensive and may not occur by market pull
alone, requiring a subsidy.
 In CA, the ZEV mandate and the LCFS provide
additional complicating parameters.
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Will the Big 3 Survive Pavley?
 Main reason behind current predicament of the
Big 3 goes back to 9/11. GM initiated a round
of very deep discounts to pump up sales and
Ford and Chrysler matched these discounts.
 While this helped sales volume, Big 3 profits
were razor thin even as industry had good
times and imports were making record profits.
 Erosion of brand value prevented Big 3 from
raising prices in 2004-2005. When industry
volumes started falling in 2006, Big 3 started
making big losses.
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GM & Ford: Vehicle Sales and
Profits for North America
North American Operations
5000
7000
6000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
-5000
4000
3000
-10000
2000
-15000
1000
-20000
0
Year
GM Income
Ford Income
GM Sales
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Ford Sales
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Sales Volume (000's)
Net Income (million $)
5000
Will the Big 3 Survive Pavley?
 While the current predicament has little to do
with regulations, future CAFÉ and Pavley
regulations may affect viability.
 Both CAFÉ and Pavley (and the ZEV mandate)
will force diesels/ hybrids beyond free market
levels and the subsidy required is a concern.
 CAFÉ has an attribute based standard which is
helpful, but high absolute standards for trucks
which hurt Big 3.
 Pavley has a single number standard which
hurts but a relatively low standard for larger
trucks which helps.
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Summary
 Meeting the 2020 EISA requirements is feasible
for most full line manufacturers without heavy
reliance on hybrid or diesel technology.
 Overall vehicle average price increase is
estimated to be about $2100 over current
vehicles, which is less than value of lifetime
fuel savings even with gasoline at $2.50.
 Attribute based FE curve shapes will strongly
influence mix shifting by consumers,
 Proposed 2015 CAFE standards appear feasible
for cars but are quite difficult for light trucks,
given lead time and technology constraints.
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Summary- Continued
 The Pavley standards are not that different
from CAFÉ standards (yet?) in fuel economy
space
 Other CA standards, notably the ZEV mandate
and the LCFS, may make compliance with
Pavley easier even in 2015.
 Domestic industry’s survival is both hurt and
helped by Pavley relative to the Federal 35
mpg mandate for 2020.
 Ultimately, moving both Pavley and Federal
standards to an attribute based standard may
help harmonization and industry survival.
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