Transcript Geen diatitel - YES-DC

The global dimensions of bioenergy markets, trade and
sustainable development.
DEO-DAY 2006: Bio-energy and Sustainability. Can we have
both?, Utrecht, The Netherlands, June 13, 2006.
André Faaij
Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University
Copernicus Institute
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Issues covered
• Global biomass resource potentials…
• International bio-energy market
developments, trade and sustainability.
• Agenda and need for international
collaboration.
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energy
consumption
population
trade
future land use patterns
biotechnology
POTENTIAL FOR BIO-ENERGY?
GDP
agricultural
system
irrigation, breeding,
mechanization,
chemicals
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land
productivity
agricultural
policy
Source: Smeets, Faaij 2004
Bioenergy production potential in
2050 for different levels of change in
agricultural management
111
0
111
137
14
68
32 40
1 2
4
315
North America
253
32 39
1 8 14 17
Near East &
North Africa
331
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
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Sustainable Development
100
10
21
0 0 0 0
East Asia
410
14
21
21
24
Japan
Ameri
South Asia
149
41
Caribean &
Latin America
CIS &
Baltic States
E.Europe
178
46
221
178
2
W.Europe
34
136
sub-Saharan
Africa
100
60
15
125
Oceania
America
Oceania
Potential
4-6 times projected
primary energy use
Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
B1-2010
Integrated assessment modelling
using IMAGE (RIVM) for assessing
land-use and production potentials of
biomass for energy
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Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
B1 2020
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Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
B1 2030
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Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
B1 2040
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Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
B1 2050
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Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
A2 2050
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Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
A1 2050
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Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
B2 2050
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Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
B1 2050
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Land-use pattern changes
A2
14
14
12
12
10
10
Bioreserve
Forest
8
Cropland
6
Grassland
Bioresreve
Rest 4
low-productivity
2
Abandoned
Restland
Area (Gha )
Area (Gha)
A1
8
6
4
2
0
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
year
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2070
2090
0
1970
Forest
Cropland
Grassland
1990
low-productivity
Abandoned
2010
2030
year
2050
2070
2090
Basics energy crop options (EU)
Crop
Rape
Short term
Longer term
Sugar
Beet
SRCWillow
Poplar
Miscant
hus
Short term
Longer term
Shorter term
Longer term
Shorter term
Longer term
Shorter term
Longer term
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Typical yield
ranges
(odt/ha*yr)
2.9 (rapeseed)
2.6 (straw)
4 (rapeseed)
4.5 (straw)
14
20
10
15
9
13
10
20
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Energy inputs
(GJprim/ha*yr
11
Typical net
energy yield
(GJ/ha*yr)
110 (total)
Production cost
ranges European
context (Euro/GJ)
20
12
180 (total)
12
13
10
5
5
4
4
13-14
13-14
250
370
180
280
150
250
180
350
12
8
3-6
<2
3-4
<2
3-6
~2
Miscanthus - different genotypes
C4 photosynthetic pathway
Miscanthus x giganteus
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Miscanthus sinensis hybrid
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Miscanthus sacchariflorus
Miscanthus sinensis
Global cost-supply curve for energy crops
for four scenarios for the year 2050
Production cost of energy crops ($ GJ-1)
Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij, 2004
5
B1 at abandoned
agricultural land
in 2000
4
At abandoned
agricultural land
At rest land
3
2
A1 at abandoned agricultural land
A2 at abandoned agricultural land
B1 at abandoned agricultural land
B2 at abandoned agricultural land
A1 at rest land
A2 at rest land
B1 at rest land
B2 at rest land
B1_2000
1
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
Geographical potential of energy crops (EJ y -1)
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300
350
400
Overall picture 2050
Biomass
category
Main assumptions and remarks
Agricultural
land
Potential land surplus: 0-4 Gha (more average: 1-2 Gha).
Marginal lands. On a global scale a maximum land surface of 1.7 Gha could be
involved.
Residues
Estimates from various studies
agriculture
Forest residues Low value: figure for sustainable forest management. High
value: technical potential. Figures include processing residues.
Dung
Use of dried dung. Low estimate based on global current use.
High estimate: technical potential.
Organic wastes Figures include the organic fraction of MSW and waste wood.
Higher values possible by more intensive use of bio-materials.
Most pessimistic scenario: no land available for energy farming;
Total
only utilisation of residues. Most optimistic scenario: intensive
agriculture concentrated on the better quality soils.
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Potential bioenergy supply
up to 2050.
0 – 700 EJ
(average: 100 –
300 EJ)
(0) 60 – 150 EJ
15 – 70 EJ
(0) 30 - 150 EJ
(0) 5 – 55 EJ
5 – 50 (+) EJ
40 – 1100 EJ
(250 - 500 EJ)
Costs (€/GJHHV Liquids)
International bio-energy logistics not a
showstopper when organized rightly
Border
Central
Gathering
point
Rail transport
Production
sites
16
Conversion
Unit
Conversion
Storage
14
Densification
Drying
12
Sizing
10
Ship
Train
8
River / ocean
Truck
Wire
6
Biomass
4
2
0
Residues Europe Pellets per Ship Methanol
Residues Europe Methanol per Ship Methanol
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Crops Europe Pellets per Ship Methanol
Crops Europe Crops LA 300MW
Methanol per Ship inland - Pellets Methanol
Methanol
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Crops LA 300MW Crops LA 1200MW
inland - Methanol - inland - Methanol
Methanol
(4x) - Methanol
Harbour and/or
coastal CGP
Crops LA 1200MW Crops E Europe 300
inland - Methanol - MW - Methanol per
Methanol
Ship 2000 km Methanol
Ship
transport
Mozambique…
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[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Potential surplus agricultural land in 2015
in Mozambique, dependant on the level of
advancement of agricultural technology
level of agricultural technology/
animal production system
very suitable
high, rain-fed-irrigated/landless
very high, rain-fed/landless
suitable
high, rain-fed/landless
moderately
suitable
high, rain-fed/mixed
marginally
suitable
intermediate/mixed
0
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5
10
15
20
25
30
million ha
35
40
45
50
[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Regional biomass annual production
potential in Mozambique/PJHHV (2015)
Total 7 EJ;
2.5 times the
Total primary
Energy demand
of the Netherlands
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[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Comparison of bioenergy growing
costs by region type (€/GJ)
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[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Logistics for
export….
[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
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Range of costs for FT fuel
delivered at Rotterdam Harbour
12
11
Fuel cost(€/GJdelivered )
10
9
8
Labour
7
Energy
6
O&M
5
Capital
Biomass
4
3
2
1
0
EF Pellets
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EF Pyrolysis
CFB FT
[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Bioenergy halfway this century…
• 100 EJ from forest & Ag. residues &
organic wastes
• 100 EJ from restoration schemes
degraded lands
• 200 EJ from good quality land released
due to higher efficiency in agriculture
(DC’s, Eastern Europe…)
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Bioenergy halfway this century…
• ~ 400 EJ is an expected 1/3 of the world’s
future energy needs; the key alternative
for mineral oil!
• Represents 1-3 TRILLION U$ market
value worldwide; larger than agriculture…
• Involves some 10% of the worlds land
surface / one fifth of agricultural/pasture
lands.
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International bio-energy
markets developing fast…
• Excitement:
– Solid biofuels trading develops in bilateral setting; bioethanol entered first phases of commodity market trading;
‘’wild west phase’’
– Growing bio-energy demand and international supply
chains create unique opportunities for biomass producing
regions.
– Investments in large scale conversion capacity now more
secure.
– Ultimately, a real alternative for mineral oil…
• Concerns:
– Overexploitation (water, land competition) should be
avoided and fair trading principles implemented.
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The key linkages…
• Agriculture the key for bio-energy…
• Bio-energy could be the key lever for
rural development.
• Bio-energy is (and will be) propelled by
sound economics; market almost
unlimited (and uncontrolled)
• Sustainability to be secured in a global
setting.
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Areas of concern relevant for sustainability of the
biomass production and trading chains
General criteria
•e.g. Traceability
•Avoidance of leakage effects
•………
Social criteria
Economic criteria
e.g. Labor conditions
e.g. Viability of the business
Yields
………
Human safety and health
…….
Ecological criteria
e.g. Preservation of existing sensitive ecosystems
Conservation of ground and surface water
……..
⇛Many criteria, but quantitative and measureable
indicators
are often missing
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[Lewandowski & Faaij, 2004]
Operationalisation of sustainability criteria
Criteria
deforestation
competition with
food production
land
availability
Impact
biodiversity
soil erosion
yield
quantity
costs
cost supply
curve
fresh water
nutrient leaching
pollution from
chemicals
employment
child labour
wages
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crop
management
system
[Smeets et al., 2005]
Indicative cost impacts of applying
sustainability criteria…
4.5
€/GJ
4.0
soil erosion
3.5
nutrient losses
3.0
pesticide use
2.5
health care
2.0
education
1.5
child labour
1.0
w ages
0.5
reference scenario
0.0
VS
mS
VS
mS
Brazil
Brazil
Ukraine
Ukraine
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[Smeets et al., 2005]
Quickscan of PROALCOOL-Brazil
Issue
Water use
Water pollution
Biodiversity
Erosion
GM cane
Cane burning
GHG/emission
Competition with food
Employment
Wages/working conditions
Child labour
[Smeets, Junginger,
Faaij, Walter, 2006
DRAFT!]
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Remarks
Dependant on local situation
Dependant on local situation; criteria available
Indirect impacts?; research required
Dependant on local situation
No GM cane is used
Complex issue: link with employment, erosion, GHG
Soil carbon is crucial
Indirect impacts?; research required
Indirect impacts?; research required
Easy to check; limited impact
Big impact and/or important issue and/or
difficult to tackle and/or no indicators present
Limited impact and/or unimportant issue
and/or easy to tackle and/or indicators present
Closing remarks (I)
• Large, economic, biomass potentials (but needs
complex, sustainable, development and a working
international market; 1/3 of global energy demand
seems feasible!)
• Integration of biomass production into agriculture
(implying integrated rural development schemes
targeting traditional agriculture)
• Competitive biomass-technology combinations
within reach for the world market (but needs
serious, consistent development and market
introduction).
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Closing remarks (II)
• Sustainable biomass production achieving
multiple benefits is possible (but needs strong
frameworks and control of market forces).
• Diversity in ecological and socio-economic
conditions to be recognized (asking for regional
approaches in a global setting; stakeholder
approaches (PIA) seem best model).
• Sense of urgency is needed; market forces are
already steering development of international
bio-energy markets.
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Closing remarks (III)
• Flagship projects (to demonstrate multiple
benefits and framework(s) under different
conditions; solid fuels… multiple markets with
international focus…
• Promising future; but policy needs to choose
and coordinate (agriculture, trade, climate,
energy and development are interlinked
here).
• Strong need for international collaboration
and action: IBEP, Biofuels Init., IEA, G8
partnership, WTO, etcetc.
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Internat. network: IEA Task 40
• Members: Netherlands (T.L.; Copernicus & Essent),
Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Finland, Canada, UK, Italy,
Belgium; Germany just came on board
• Affiliated international bodies
– FAO, World Bank; (interest: UNCTAD, WWF int., UNEP)
www.bioenergytrade.org:
•
•
•
•
Detailed activities
Results (e.g. country reports, analyses)
Events
Partner for collaboration
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