Transcript Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Today and in 2020
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vision, mission, & roles
partners & customers
products & services
performance & value added
by HPC forecasters
 HPC in 2020
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Ohio State University
Severe Weather Symposium
March 4, 2011
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
Jim Hoke
Director, HPC
Ohio State and HPC
Mike Sowko with Tom
Skilling of WGN in 1991
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Mike & Tom at HPC recently
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC’s Vision & Mission
 Mission statement:
HPC delivers weather forecast guidance products and
services in support of the daily activities of the National
Weather Service and its users.
 Vision statement:
To be a leader in the NWS
collaborative forecast
process and recognized
as a center of excellence
by providing high-quality
weather forecast guidance
and analyses.
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC: a resource to field forecasters,
other partners, and customers
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starting point
second opinion
focusing mechanism
unifying influence
(catalyst for
collaboration)
• a scientific center of expertise in QPF, medium-range
forecasting, model diagnostics, and surface analysis
• provider of historical record
• emergency backup
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC’s Partners & Customers
 NWS field offices: WFOs, RFCs, CWSUs
 other NCEP centers: AWC, CPC, EMC, NCO, NHC, OPC, SPC
 federal agencies: DHS/FEMA, USACE, FAA, NTSB, DoD, USBR,
USAID/OFDA, EPA, White House
 state agencies:
water resources, flood management, emergency services,
state climatologists
 media: TV, radio, newspapers, wire services, Internet services
 private sector: data vendors, forecast services, utilities, forensics, retailers,
researchers
 aviation: general aviation and others
 academic community: atmospheric
Rita, September 2005
sciences and other departments
 international:
foreign met services,
media, emergency management,
travelers
 general public:
analysis & forecast
products, visits
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC’s Products and Services
 quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), excessive
rainfall, river flood outlook, and heavy snow & ice guidance
 medium-range guidance
 model diagnostic discussions & associated graphics tools
 surface analyses &
Daily Weather Map
 basic weather forecasts
& National Forecast Charts
 South, Central, and
Caribbean America
training, prognostic
discussions, & graphics
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
Examples of HPC’s Emergency
& Special Products and Services
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Special teleconferences for major flooding events
Nontropical storm summaries
Media interviews & press conferences
Capitol Hill briefings on weather events/activities
Training of field forecasters in quantitative precipitation,
medium range, and ensemble forecasting
Precipitation statements in NHC Public Advisories
Tropical cyclone prediction at
days 6 & 7
Public Advisories for remnants of
tropical cyclones over land
Hurricane Liaison Team briefings
Backup to NHC’s hurricane program
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
International Desk Alumni include:
 Tropical Desk
 South America Desk
– Fred Sambula,
Director, Cayman Islands
– Justin Hulse, Director, Belize
– Eli Henry, Director, Barbados
– Trevor Basden, Chief of Operations,
The Bahamas
– Evan Thompson, Chief of Operations,
Jamaica
– Bryan Bambury, Chief NWP, Jamaica
– Miguel Cortez, Chief of Climatic
Studies, Mexico
– Cesar Triana, Met. In Charge, Chiapas,
Mexico
– Federico Acevedo, Met. In Charge,
Veracruz, Mexico
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– Humberto Enriquez, Chief of
Climatology, Ecuador
– Humberto Gonzalez, Deputy Director,
Colombia
– Roel Oehler, Chief of Operations,
Suriname
– Ramon Velazquez, Deputy Director,
Venezuela
– Fernando Figueroa, Chief of
Administration, Bolivia
– Jorge Chira, Chief of Synoptic
Meteorology, Peru
– Juan Coronado, Chief NWP, Peru
– Ramon Soncini, former Director,
Argentina
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC on the Internet
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC QPF verification
1-inch threat score
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC QPF verification vs. the models
Day 1, 1 inch
NWS GPRA Measure
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
Value added by HPC forecasters
(Sum of Daily Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
for Central U.S. Flooding of June 2008)
Threat score for 30 forecast days:
NAM: 0.19;
GFS: 0.12;
HPC: 0.25
HPC forecast
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Verification
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
Value added by HPC forecasters
(Days 7 & 6)
HPC day 7 and day 6 forecast positions for Katrina: (a) day 7 forecast
position on Monday, August 22, 2005, valid Monday, August 29, 2005;
(b) day 6 forecast position on Tuesday, August 23, 2005, valid Monday,
August 29, 2005.
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC Medium-range verification
North American MSLP forecast skill
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC medium-range Tmax verification
Mean Absolute Error (all stations)
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC medium-range Tmax verification
% reduction in Mean Absolute Error over MOS
2010 (adjusted stations only) (HPC Prelim vs. 00 UTC MOS)
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
HPC in 2020?
 products and services fostering collaboration among NWS field offices.
 reach-back resource for Decision Support Specialists.
 decision support services to a broad spectrum of regional- and nationallevel decision makers for heavy rainfall and winter weather.
 national met watch for heavy rainfall and winter weather.
 gridded forecasts of weather elements through at least day 10.
 training in the use of advanced meteorological and climate analysis and
forecast techniques for forecasters of South, Central, and Caribbean
America and others.
 real-time recommendations throughout the year on the deployment of
resources to support the daily conduct of adaptive observation programs.
 graphical forecasts of highs, lows, fronts, and
mesoscale features at 3-h intervals out through 72 h.
 weather threat assessment charts through day 10.
 oversight of certain programs contributing to the
historical weather record.
 possible site for a 24x7 national operations services
center.
Global Hawk
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
-- In Conclusion -The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:
 Delivers weather forecast guidance products and services in support of the
daily activities of the NWS and its users.
 Serves as a starting point, second opinion, focusing mechanism, unifying
influence, historical record, and emergency backup.
 Strives to be a leader in the NWS collaborative
forecast process and recognized as a center
of excellence by providing high-quality forecast
guidance and real-time numerical model
diagnostics.
 Accelerates advances in weather prediction
into the daily activities of operational
forecasters across the Nation.
 Responds to the emerging needs of the NWS
and its users in providing products & services
to a society becoming more and more weather
savvy and weather sensitive.
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner