Transcript Vulnerability of Poor Rural Households to Climate

Vulnerability of Poor Rural
Households to Climate Variability
and Change in the West African
Sahel
Anthony Nyong
Geography Department, University of Jos, Nigeria
START Visiting Fellow
Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford, UK
Abou Berthé
Institute of Rural Economy, Mali
Second International Conference on Climate Assessment (SICCIA),
June 28 – July 2, 2004,
Grainau, Germany.
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Acknowledgements
• This work is part of an AIACC supported project on
Households and droughts in the West African Sahel:
Effective Adaptation Measures. Research is executed by
the University of Jos, Nigeria and The Institute of Rural
Economy, Mali.
• Funding for AIACC (Assessment of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions) was
provided by GEF, USAID, CIDA and USEPA.
• AIACC is jointly administered by START (Global
SysTems for Analysis, Research and Training) and
TWAS (Third World Academy of Science)
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
The Sahel Environment 1
• A transition between the southern margin of the Sahara
desert and the savanna regions to the south.
• A bio-climatic zone of mainly annual grasses with a few
shrubs and trees, that receives a mean annual rainfall of
between 150 and 600mm
• A steep gradient of decreasing rainfall from south to
north, with an increase in inter-annual and spatial
variability.
• A zone of cultural transition where the Islamic culture
from the north mingles with the traditional cultures of the
south.
• North-south stratification of social systems, northerly
cultures tend towards pastoralism, southerly cultures
largely practice sedentary agriculture.
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
The Sahel Environment 2
A comparison of the 10-day
rainfall distribution and the
cumulative rainfall for 2002 with
the long term average (1960-90)
for various zones within the Sahel
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Research Questions/Objectives
• Who is vulnerable? What are the specific reasons
for their vulnerability? Where are the vulnerable?
How have they come to be vulnerable? What
shapes the exposure to and ability of certain groups
to rebound from vulnerability?
• We also wish to know the temporal and spatial
aspects of vulnerability: Will vulnerability be long or
short term or is vulnerability worse at certain times
of the year?
• From the spatial perspective we wish to know the
extent of vulnerable areas susceptible to droughts.
The most vulnerable people may not be in the most
vulnerable regions.
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Capacity Building
IPCC
AIACC
Adaptation
Strategies
Risk
Assessment
Selection of
Study Sites
Non Climatic
Variables
Stakeholders
Coping
Threshold
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Key Climatic
Variables
Scenarios
Vulnerability
Model
Sensitivity
Analysis
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Project Coverage
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Methodology 1
• The Focus
– Current Vulnerability
• The Scale
– Household
• The Framework
– Sustainable Livelihood Systems Framework
• Stakeholder involvement and analysis
– Variations in definition and perception of vulnerability
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Current Vulnerability
• Quantitative assessment of the vulnerability and
adaptive capacity of various groups to past and
present drought disasters will form a basis for,
and contribute to understanding future
Vulnerability & Adaptation to drought hazards in
the Sahel.
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Household Analysis
• Project will mainly address the vulnerability of
resource-poor households and groups, with a
strong gender perspective.
• Continuing absence of class and gender focus
in vulnerability to drought reinforces biases and
presents a gap in giving a clearer picture of
vulnerability, as well as in designing effective
mitigation measures for them.
• Assets and entitlements are better analyzed at
household level
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Why Sustainable Livelihood?
 Adopting a sustainable livelihoods perspective on drought
vulnerability results in a fundamental shift in focus away from
the resource itself to people, the impact of drought on their
livelihood strategies, and resource conditions.
 Will ensure that projects tackling drought mitigation and
adaptation become problem-led rather than ‘discipline-led’.
 Will lead to a greater understanding of the multiple
dimensions of drought vulnerability. Vulnerability is explicitly a
social phenomenon related to a human value system.
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Stakeholder Analysis
•Stakeholders are those who would be
increasingly affected by the foreseen
impacts, as well as those who have a
role in influencing adaptation and
policy.
•Understanding role of stakeholders in
the decision-making processes to cope
with and adapt during climatic events is
fundamental to characterizing current
and possible future vulnerability.
•Stakeholder analysis will assist the
implementation of adaptation policies
and the formation of an “adaptation
community”, that will provide the
momentum to carry the process
forward (APF, 2003).
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Methodology 2
• Participatory Rural Appraisal to:
– Identify major livelihood systems
Farming
Fishing
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Pastoralism
Non-Agric Systems
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Selection of Study Communities
Mali
Nigeria
27 communities selected, 860 households
interviewed, Communities selected based on
livelihood systems, size of villages and
willingness of the women to participate in the
project.
Zones
Rainfall (mm)
Sahelo-Saharan
Sahelian
No of
Villages
< 400
400 – 600
4
4
No. of
households
48
48
#
G ad a
G w a da baw a
#
Is a
#
#
#
36
Sudano-Guinean
Delta
> 1000
400-600
3
2
36
24
16
192
N g uru
M an i
# N g uru
# M an i
K aza ure
#
3
#
K a t s in a
B a k u ra
600 – 1000
K a t s in a
K a t s in a
# Yab o
Sudano-Sahelian
J ib i a
S o k o to
Y ab o
M ara dun
K a f in - H a u s a
# B ic h i
#
#
G ezaw a
B ic h i
# G w a rz o
K an o
G w a rz o
#
D a w a k in K u d u
R a no
# Ra no
# F u n tu a
M a i d u g u r M u n i c i p a l it y
W u d il
M a i d u g u r M u n i c i p a l it y
#
Fu ne
A lb a s u
#
M a i d u g u r M u n i c i p a l it y
#
#
B am a
B i rn i n - K u d u
#
#
F u n tu a
#
#
# Kan o
G w a rz o
F u n tu a
Z u ru
Jahu n
#
K an o
#
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
#
B ic h i
# B un gud u
G um m i
M as hi
Total
M on gu no
# H a d e jia
# D a m b a tt a
B un gud u
Jega
H a d e jia
D a m b a tt a
#
#
#
#
B a k u ra
Ta m b uw al
G um el
#
K a n k iy a
#
B am a
M is a u
Tu du n W a da
#
# M is a u
G u jb a
#
G w o za
#
Z a ri a
Z a ri a
Y a u ri
# Z a ri a
Z a ri a Z a ri a
#
B i rn i n G w a r i
#
A s k i ra /U b a
#
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Identification Vulnerability Indicators
• Identification of risks exposed to:
– Different groups in the Sahel are differentially at risk from
different threats to their livelihood. Climate change is one
of those threats. Such risks include: Insecurity/violence, illhealth/death of both humans and animals, rising cost of
living, insufficient food for the household, crop failure
– Vulnerability varies within and between households and
across communities. People’s perceptions of risk may be
based not only on the objective risks that they face, such
as variable rainfall, but also on their subjective assessment
of risk.
– Development of indicators of vulnerability - mix of both
quantitative and subjective indicators
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Table 1: Indices and Weights for Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment for Northern Nigeria
Index
Value
Measured/Calculated as
Range
Average
1
Acreage under cultivation
1
Hectares/consumer units
0.1 -2.8
0.6
2
Dependency ratio
1
Labour units/consumer units (inverted)
0.3 – 0.8
0.5
3
Livestock ownership
1
Tropical Livestock Units/consumer units
0.0 – 8.2
3.7
4
Gender of Household Head
1
Value given to sex of household head
1.0 – 2.0
1.8
5
Livelihood diversification
1
Weighted number of non-agricultural income
generating activities/consumer units
0.0 - 2.4
0.7
6
Annual cash income
1
In 1000 Naira/consumer units
2.5 – 9.7
4.2
7
Drought Preparedness
1
Value given to use of drought resistant crops and
livestock and receives drought related information
and advise
0.0 – 2.0
1.1
8
Educational background of
the household head
0.5
Value given to highest school level attained by the
head of the household
0.0 -4.0
1.8
9
Land tenure situation
0.5
Value given to land tenure situation
1.0 – 3.0
2.5
10
Type of house
0.5
Value given to type of house lived in
1.0 -3.0
1.80
11
Self-sufficiency in food
production
0.5
Number of years surplus foodstuffs were sold
minus number of years foodstuffs were bought in
the past 10 years
0.0 -20.0
11.2
12
Family and Social Networks
0.5
Value given to strength of family and social
networks.
1.0 – 4.0
2.25
13
Quality of household
0.5
Number of able persons/ number of disabled and or
sick persons in the household (inverted)
1.5 – 12.0
7.6
Overall Vulnerability
10
Sum of (index scores * index value)
235.1 to 833.9
472.1
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Vulnerability Ranking
• Methodology for classification
– Indicators weights
• <350 Highly Vulnerable
• 351 – 700 Vulnerable
• >700 Not Vulnerable
Distribution of Households According to Levels of Vulnerability
Livestock
(Bunza)
Crop farming
(Garin Adamu)
Fishing
(Tikuikui)
Very Vulnerable
8
12
4
Vulnerable
17
10
16
Not Vulnerable
5
8
10
Total
30
30
30
Vulnerability Group
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Table 3: Selected Household Indicators of Adaptive Capacity by Vulnerability Groups
Highly
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Not Vulnerable
No (%)
No (%)
No (%)
8 (33.3)
5( 20.8)
11 (45.9)
24 (100.0)
11 (25.6)
15 (34.9)
17 (39.5)
43 (100.0)
5 (21.7)
8 (34.8)
10 (43.5)
23 (100.0)
Dependency Ratio
0.6
0.5
0.4
Sex of HH Head
1.8
1.9
1.9
Mean Age of HH Head
61
55
54
N 3100.00
N4800.00
N6300.00
Education of HH Head
0.8
1.4
2.2
Livelihood Diversification
0.8
1.5
3.9
Quality of Household
5.4
6.8
8.2
Family/ Social Network
1.8
1.9
4.6
7
9
15
Characteristics
Household Size
<3
3–7
> 12
Total
Mean Income/Consumer Unit
Food Sufficiency Past Decade
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
Table 4: Multivariate Results of Household Adaptive Capacity
Characteristics
Household Size
Dependency Ratio
Sex of HH Head
Mean Age of HH Head
Mean HH Income/consumer unit
Education of HH Head
Livelihood Diversification
Quality of Household
Food sufficiency
Family/ Social Network
Constant
_cut1
_cut2
Sample size
Log Likelihood statistic
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Coefficient
S.E
p>│z│
0.047
-1.036
0.018
-0.724
-1.003
-0.016
-0.772
-0.154
-0.326
-0.103
-1.663
-0.390
-0.503
90
-16441
0.006
0.016
0.050
0.119
0.022
0.011
0.029
0.010
0.031
0.208
0.098
0.012
0.015
0.063
0.000
0.071
0.041
0.000
0.064
0.000
0.032
0.048
0.046
0.022
odds
1.05
2.82
1.02
2.06
2.73
1.02
2.16
1.17
1.39
1.11
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali
What Next?
• More Data Analyses to answer the Research
Questions
• Development of a GIS for spatial analysis of
drought vulnerability
Concerns?
• Aggregating household level indicators to
community/regional indices
• Development of a Dynamic Vulnerability Model
Centre for Environmental Resources and
Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria
Institut d”Economie Rural,
Mali