Transcript Quantitative support tools to implement EBFM

Quantitative support tools to
implement EBFM: decision-support
systems and gaming technology
Villy Christensen
University of British Columbia
On the Ground & In the Water:
Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management in Practice
2009 Bevan Symposium on Sustainable Fisheries
http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/welcome.html
NOAA celebrates 200 year
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Fitting to time series:
learning from ecosystem history
• Numerous EwE
models have in
recent years
– produced credible fit
to historical data
– made plausible policy
predictions
• requires inclusion of
environmental as well
as fisheries impact
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Modeling process: fitting & drivers
Formal estimation
Fishing
(Diet0)
(Z0)
( BCC/B0)
Ecosystem model
(predation,
competition,
mediation,
age structured)
Climate Nutrient
loading
Predicted C, B,
Z, W, diets
Habitat
area
Log
Likelihood
Search
for
minimization
Observed
C,B,Z,W, diets
Judgmental evaluation
Choice of parameters
to include in final
estimation (e.g., climate
anomalies)
Error
pattern
recognition
Christensen & Walters 2005
The models are widely used
• Questionnaire responses from EwE users:
325 models constructed or under construction
– 42% ecosystem structure;
– 30% fisheries
management;
– 11% theoretical
ecology;
– 6% protected
area evaluations
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Morisette 2007
But haven’t really had much impact on
actual management
• Partly because of lack of experience with EBFM
• Partly because fisheries management is not EB
• But,
– Do we provide what’s needed?
– Do we communicate in a comprehensible form?
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Ocean Summits
• How do you make the new Minister of Finance
understand that selling licenses to foreign fleets or
giving subsidies to increase the national fishing
capacity may lead to lower catches, less income,
higher cost, and social unrest?
• We are developing an approach based on best
available science, and incorporating realistic
simulations of the ecosystem and its socio-economic
environment
Challenge
• Predicting the reactions of the ecosystem,
economy and society to potential management
actions represent a major challenge
• We meet the challenge by designing a
scenario-testing and -visualization gaming
environment where alternative outcomes can
be evaluated in a scientifically credible manner
Lenfest Ocean Futures Project
Joe
Villy
Buszowski Christensen
Dalai
Felinto
Robyn
Forrest
Fang
Gao
Carie
Hoover
Joe
Hui
Sherman
Lai
Mike
Pan
Jeroen
Steenbeek
Will and Carl
Walters
Four year project funded by the Lenfest Ocean Program
Ocean Summits Procedure
Operating model
Climate
model
Hydrographic
model
Management
procedure
Assessment
module
(ecological,
economical,
social)
Indicators
Status
Policy
scenarios
Ecosystem –
value chain
model
Visualization
Strategy
The strategy is set by the participants; arrows indicate flow of information
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Ocean Summits methodology
• Required elements
– Redevelop EwE
– Get models to talk together
– The value chain
– Spatial optimizations
– Decision-support methodology
– Visualizations
– Communication
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EwE6 overview
Scientific Interface
Plug-ins
EwE Core
Ecopath
Ecosim
Ecospace
Data source
Source code (live) available for download through cvs
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Linking
file
Hydrographic
model
t=0…n
file
vs. Coupling
EwE
model
t=0
…
n
Hydrographic
model
t =0
t=1
.
.
.
.
T=n
EwE
model
t =0
t=1
.
.
.
.
T=n
• Connect using
– Plug-in
– .NET client
– TCP-IP protocol
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Model coupling: cooperative activities
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CSIRO: Atlantis
CEFAS: GOTM-BFM
OGS, Trieste: BGC
CSIRO: MSE framework
ROMS and climate models
• Issues to tackle
– Scale
– Time
– NOAA GFDL/Princeton
– FLEM/CBREEM linking
• GAMS linking
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Value chain modeling
Environment
Ecosystem
Fish
species
Producer
Consumer
Seller
Distributor
Processor
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Value chain modeling
• Models the economic flow linked to the
food web
– from sea to plate
• Accounts for social aspects
– jobs, salaries, dependents, …
– detailed revenue and cost accounting
• Handles aquaculture and
non-extractive use, (e.g., whale watching)
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Spatial optimizations
• Ability to
handle
conservation
layers
(similar to
Marxan)
Importance
layer 1
Select cells for
protection
Importance
layer 2
No
Runs done?
Run Ecospace,
evaluate
objectivity function
Importance
layer n
Yes
Summarize results
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Communicating the science
We’re good with spreadsheets and graphs
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Visualizations & decision-support
• How has the system changed in historic time?
• What is the current state
• How may the system react to human impact
and climate change?
• Science aspects
– How to visualize numbers
– How to facilitate human-computer interaction
– How to develop a cooperative environment
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Visualizations - renderings
• ‘Finding Nemo’ is rendered, image by image
• We use a 3D gaming engine, Blender
• We use rendering to make documentaries
– Chesapeake Bay: 6 min’s video
– Baltic Sea: planned
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Visualizations - gaming
• Real-time rendering
• We have connected Ecosim to Blender
• Currently used for two ‘games’
– Single player fishing game
– Multi player decision support ‘game’
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Rin
Multi player ‘game’
• Foundation
for Ocean
Summits
• Two-way
communication!
EwE6
scientific interface
Run
model inputs
EwE6
game server plug-in
EwE6
computational core
model results
EwE
game server
Server
aggregated results
Client
EwE
game client
time step XML
results
Blender
Summit UI
visualization
updates
summit UI
updates
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Big Skipper fishing game
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Buy and operate boats
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Accounting
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