Transcript Food & Energy

Energy, Food & Transport for the 21st
Century
An introduction to the dynamics of energy, food and transport
Implications for sustainable / green living in the 21st century
Karim Jaufeerally
Institute for Environmental and Legal Studies
iels.intnet.mu
1
Energy & Modern Society
Sources of energy used world wide in 2008
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro-electricity
Nuclear
Combustible renewable
Other (sun, wind, geothermal)
33.2%
27%
21.1%
2.2%
5.6%
10%
0.7%
Total energy used: 12,267 Mtoe
IEA 2010 (International Energy Association) – BP year book 2010 – USGS (US
Geological Survey) – EIA (Energy Information Administration) US
2
Primary Source
of energy
Transports
using liquid
fuels
Electricity
Source of Heat
Pesticides,
plastics,
lubricants,
asphalt, fertilisers
Oil
60%
10%
14%
16%
Coal
0.5%
45%
50%
4.5%
Natural Gas
6%
34%
50%
10%
Y%
Z%
W%
Solar Energy
50%
50%
Wind Energy
100%
Geothermal
X%
Nuclear
100%
Hydroelectricity
100%
Biomass
X%
Y%
3
Energy, Transport and the Economic system
1.
All modern economic system totally reliant on transport
2.
Transport system requires large amounts of energy
3.
Reduction in transport = reduction in economic activity
4.
Critical to examine transport energy issues!!!
4
Transport Energy
Oil
2150 Mtoe
94.3%
Liquid fuel
Internal
Combustion
Engines (ICE)
Coal
3.3 Mtoe
0.14 %
Liquid fuel /
CTL
ICE
Natural Gas
77.5 Mtoe
3.4 %
Compressed
natural gas,
GTL / Liquid
fuel
ICE
Electricity
23 Mtoe
1.0 %
Electric
currents
Electric motors
Biofuels
25 Mtoe
1.0%
Liquid fuel
ICE
Total
2278.8 Mtoe
5
Oil is essential for modern transports
1.
99% of transport system relies on internal combustion engines (ICE)
2.
98% of ICE relies on liquid fuels
3.
98% of liquid fuel is OIL
4.
Therefore: 95% of transport energy is OIL
5.
60% of all oil used for transportation
6.
Oil is vital for modern transports which are vital to economic systems
6
Oil essential for industrial agriculture
• Modern Industrial agriculture totally dependant on oil
• agricultural machinery
• Fertilisers – pesticides – insecticides
• Transport from fields to factories to supermarkets to consumers
• Chain from field to consumer totally dependent on OIL
7
Oil in transport & industrial agriculture is
KING!!!
Economic system & Industrial Agriculture totally reliant on transport
Transport totally reliant on oil
Need to examine future of oil closely
8
The Future of Oil
1.
Of fossil origin
2.
Non renewable
3.
Resource subject to depletion
9
Different forms of oil
1.
Conventional Oil
In liquid form – low viscosity
On Shore
Offshore < 500 m
2.
Non – Conventional Oil
Deep Sea Oil (>500 m)
Polar Oil
Heavy Oil / Oil Sands
Oil Shale
10
Offshore Oil
1.
Conventional Off shore < 500 m – North Sea - Mexico
2.
Non Conventional Off Shore –
Deep Sea Oil > 500m
Gulf of Mexico – Brazil – Angola
11
Polar Oil
Oil in the Polar regions
Alaska – Siberia – Canada
Antarctica: Off limits via international conventions
12
Heavy, Bituminous sands / Oil sands
The sands contain naturally occurring mixtures of sand, clay, water, and a
dense and extremely viscous form of petroleum technically referred to as
bitumen
US, Russia, Middle East
But especially Canada & Venezuela
13
Oil Shale
Oil shale
An organic-rich sedimentary rock from which liquid hydrocarbons can be
extracted
US, Estonia, China, Brazil
14
State of Oil Resources (2008)
Types of Oil
Estimates of
Ultimately
Recoverable
Resource (Bbls)
Cumulative
Production to date
(Bbls)
Current Daily
Production (mb/d)
Percentage of Total
Daily Production
(mb/d)
Conventional Oils
2200 – 2400 billion
1100 billion
67.6
79.6 %
Heavy & Oil sands
3600 billion
60 billion
2.7
3.1%
Deep Sea Oil
100 - 200 billion
30 billion
5.9
6.9%
Polar Oil
50 billion
15 billion
0.80
1.0%
Oil Shale
2800 - 3300 billion
10 billion
0.01
-
Natural Gas Liquids
300 billion
100 billion
8.0
9.4%
Total
9050 – 9850 billion
1315 billion
85
100%
15
Conventional Oil is dominant!
•
80 % of world oil production comes from conventional oil fields from
which 1/2 of the resource has already been extracted.
•
“Crude oil (conventional) output reaches and undulating plateau of
around 68 – 69 mb/d by 2020 but never regains its all time peak of 70
mb/d reached in 2006,” World Energy Outlook 2010 – IEA
16
What is the future of oil production?
• Critical to asses the future of world oil production
• Need to understand oil production profile from typical oil field
• Dr Hubbert King first to study oil production profiles in the 1950’s and
proposes Peak Oil Theory
17
Theory vs. Reality
18
Oil Production always Peaks!
• Simmons & Co
19
Peak Oil!!!
• Oil is a finite non renewable resource
• Resource base declines with production
• Therefore a point will be reached when resource base has declined to such
an extent (1/2) that current production can no longer be sustained
• Thus oil production begins its decline
• Peak Oil is real!!!!
20
When Will Oil Production Peak?
• Hirsch Report
21
When Will Oil Production Peak?
•
An analytical model of future oil
supply
•
Dr Krumdieck 2008
•
Probability that the peak will have
occurred
Probability
Peak
Production
reached
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1%
50%
80%
95%
99%
99.99%
22
Crude Oil
• Aspo
23
Can we shift to Non Conventional Oils?
• Deep Sea & Polar Oil: Modest resource base (150 – 250 Billion Bbls) and
modest rates of production (6.7 mb/d)
• Heavy & Oil Sands: Large resource base (3600 Billion Bbls) but low rates
of productions (2.7 mb/d)
• Oil Shale: Large resource base (2800 billion bbls), very low rates of
production (11,000 bbls/day), technically difficult
24
Impacts of Peak Oil
•
Peak Oil will happen
•
Oil Demand unmet - Prices oscillate widely from very high to fairly low
•
Oil supplies will diminish
•
What Impacts?
25
Impacts of Peak Oil: The Hirsch Report 2005
PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION:
IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader
Roger Bezdek, MISI
Robert Wendling, MISI
February 2005
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an
unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel
prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation,
the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation
options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial
impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.
26
Impacts of Peak Oil
• Hirsch Report
27
Impacts of Peak Oil
• Shortages in oil supply = Reduction in modern transports = Reduction in
economic activities
• Industrial agricultural systems under stress
• Threatened food security
• Threatened energy security
28
Impacts of Peak Oil
• Geopolitical instability
• Risks of war
• Revolutions, Coup d'états
29
The Energy Crisis
It is mainly an oil supply crisis
It is an acute crisis of liquid fuel for transportation
It is also a food crisis
What alternatives to oil for transportation?
30
The constraint of limited or non substitution of
energy sources
Primary Source
of energy
Transports
using liquid
fuels
Electricity
Source of Heat
Pesticides,
plastics,
lubricants,
asphalt, fertilisers
Oil
60%
10%
14%
16%
Coal
0.4%
45%
50%
4.5%
Natural Gas
5.9%
34%
50%
10%
Y%
Z%
W%
Solar Energy
50%
50%
Wind Energy
100%
Nuclear
100%
Hydroelectricity
100%
Biomass
X%
31
The constraint of limited substitution in
transport
For many purposes, difficult to substitute one form of energy for another.
Especially in transportation!!! WHY??
(1) Dependency on liquid fuel especially oil (95% of transport energy)
(2) The volumes of oil consumed daily in that sector (60% of 86 million
barrels per day!)
(3) The time required to change energy infrastructure, 20 to 30 years
(4) Financial capital required
Oil Dependency, Volume, Time and Capital
32
The constraint of limited substitution,
renewable energies and transport – very
acute!
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Solar:
Heat – Electricity
Wind:
Electricity
Biomass: Combustion energy-biofuels
Hydro:
Electricity
Geothermal:Heat – Electricity
Tidal:
Electricity
99% Transportation relies on internal combustion engines (ICE)
98% of ICE relies on liquid fuels
98% liquid fuel is oil
95% of transport energy is oil
Thus, except for biomass, renewable energies CANNOT be used for
transportation unless massive electrification occurs
33
What liquid fuels alternatives to oil for
transportation exist?
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
BTL: Biomass to liquids
GTL: Gas to liquids
CTL: Coal to liquids
Natural Gas
34
Biomass to Liquids (BTL)
•
Ethanol, biodiesel mainly
•
•
1.84 million of barrels per day – 2010
Competes with food production
•
Only 1% of transport energy
•
Biofuels compete with food production in many cases
35
Gas to Liquids (GTL)
•
The transformation of methane into liquid fuel using the Fisher-Tropsch
(F-T) process.
•
Less than 100,000 barrels per day of production
36
Gas to Liquids (GTL)
•
Qatar, Ras Laffan Industrial City
•
Integrated gas and gas-to liquids project by Shell
•
Investment $18 billion-$19 billion
•
140,000 barrels of GTL per day
•
Completion date: 2010
•
Time of construction: 4 – 5 years
•
130,000 US $ of investment of each barrel of GTL/day of production
capacity
37
Coal to Liquids (CTL)
•
Synthesis of liquid fuels from coal using the Fisher-Tropsch process.
•
Used extensively by Germany during WW2 which lacked access to
sufficient oil resources
•
50% of liquid fuels during wartime Germany came from CTL
•
In spite of abundant coal and water, German military always short of fuel.
•
Significant factor in Germany’s final defeat
38
Coal to Liquids (CTL)
•
Sasol of South Africa uses 140,000 tonnes of coal to produce 150,000
barrels per day of synthetic crude oil
•
Chinese plant produces another 20,000 barrels per day of synthetic crude
oil
•
1 ton of coal = 1 barrel of synthetic crude oil (approx)
•
CTL never covered more than 40% of liquid fuel demand in SA
•
World coal production 7 billion tonnes per year
•
World oil production 30 billion barrels per year
39
Natural Gas
•
1.8 million barrels per day used for transportation (approx)
•
3.4% of transport energy
•
Storage problematic
•
Requires new distribution and storage network
•
Requires large increases in NG production
40
Natural Gas
In 2007, an Australian Senate Committee considered the wider use of natural gas as a
transport fuel but found that there were significant problems.
1) Natural gas requires either a refrigeration system or compression and a large
gas tank for storage, which limits its range.
2) The process of compression or freezing is energy-intensive and therefore
detracts from the net energy available for transport.
3) In the case of commercial vehicles, the extra weight and cost of a gas
conversion makes the payback period quite lengthy and the economics are thus
dependant on generous tax concessions in the excise regime.
4) A nationwide lack of refuelling infrastructure appears to be another obstacle to
wider use.
The Senate Committee’s conclusion regarding the use of natural gas was thus ambivalent.
In the medium term, gas might substitute for oil as a transport fuel but its use would be
only a bridge, not a long-term fix, and ultimately gas will run out as well.
41
Lets’ add up all our alternatives
•
BTL: 1.84 million bbls/day
•
GTL: 100,000 to 240,000 bbls/day
•
CTL: 170,000 bbls/day
•
Natural Gas: 1.8 million bbls/day
•
Total: 4 million bbls/day (7.5% of transportation fuels)
•
Compare with 86 million barrels/day of oil production 61% (52.8 mb/d)
of which goes to transportation
42
How about hydrogen?
•
Neither ready technically nor economic
•
Difficulties in large scale production of hydrogen
•
Difficulties in storing and distributing hydrogen on a wide scale
•
Requires a new fleet of vehicles
•
Colossal time and capital constraints
•
H2 NOT a source of energy as must be produced from a primary source
of energy
43
Transition to electric power in transport
• Can we transition away from liquid fuels / oil for transportation in time?
• This means the electrification of land transport
• Remember only 1% of transport energy comes from electricity.
• Transition to electric power will require time, capital and additional
renewable sources of electric power
• Air and maritime transport CANNOT be electrified at present!
44
Alternatives to oil for transportation
Liquid Fuels
BTL / CTL / GTL
Natural Gas
Electricity
Hydrogen
Internal Combustion
Engines (ICE)
Same vehicular fleet
ICE
Electric motors –
New vehicle fleet
New vehicle fleet
Fuel cells and
electric motors
New vehicle fleet
Requires new production Requires new
facilities, very expensive distribution and
storage infrastructure
Requires large
May use existing
increases in NG
distribution & storage
production
infrastructure
Can use existing
electric power system
but will require
additional power
sources preferably
renewable energy
Requires new
infrastructure for
production,
distribution and
storage of H2
Very long lead
times!
Technically not
ready
Long lead times
Long lead times
Long lead times
Technically ready
Technically ready
Technically ready
45
The problem of scaling up supply of AF
•
Use of liquid fuels alternatives such as CTL, GTL, BTL or NG
CANNOT be scaled up very quickly.
•
Scaling up requires new production facilities
•
In case of NG new distribution networks
•
Thus lots of resources, capital and time!!! Hirsch Report
•
15 yrs of crash programme to substitute 25 mbbls/day of oil
46
The problem of renewing the vehicular fleet
•
In US average vehicle is 9 yrs old
•
It takes 17 to 20 years to renew fleet
47
Stuck on oil!!!
•
In effect, we have an oil based transportation system with few substitutes.
•
To make a transition away from one form of energy to another takes at
least 2 to 3 decades!!!
•
We are stuck with an oil dependant transportation system for the
foreseeable future.
48
We all look like oil junkies!!!
• Oil Addiction is bad for your health!!!
• Refusal to see reality
• Refusal to consider changing lifestyle
• Desperate search for alternatives to oil
• Biofuels, Renewables, Nuclear, Coal, Natural Gas, ANYTHING!
49
To sum up
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Excessive dependence on oil for transport
Excessive dependence of industrial food systems on oil
Peak Oil is INEVITABLE – only timing uncertain (2005 – 2015 – 2020)
Limited substitution for oil
Any transition away from oil takes decades
Colossal capital requirements
Scaling up of any alternatives difficult, slow & expensive
There will be shortfalls in liquid fuels for transportation
50
Mitigation Responses to Peak Oil
Increase resilience of human societies to
(1) Short fall in liquid fuels
(2) High energy prices
(3) High food prices
(4) Economic contraction
51
Mitigation Responses to Peak Oil
•
•
•
•
Home Composting
Organic Agriculture
Consolidation and expansion of domestic (household) economy
Land reform
• Promote sugar cane ethanol for ICE
• Promote locally sourced biodiesel
• Promote better public transport based on renewable energies
• Reconsider our thirst for economic growth & Development
52
Mitigation Responses to Peak Oil
• NO MORE WANTON DESTRUCTION OF FARMLANDS!!!
• It is criminal and soon it will turn out to be suicidal
53
Mitigation Responses to Peak Oil: Electrified
Public Transport
1.
Promotion of public transport – electrified buses and electric rail links
2.
Switzerland is a good case study of electrified public transport that relies
on renewable energy: hydro power (60%)
3.
Abundant hydro power
4.
Need to learn from Swiss experience
54
Promotion of renewable energies &
conservation
• Yes to Renewable Energies
• But remind yourself of costs & time frame required for any transition
55
Transition to sustainability
Our world, based on a linear, expansionist economic system totally reliant
on fossil fuel is dying
The world to come is not yet born
The transition will be slow, difficult and hard, but not impossible
56
Time to Act Now!!!
• Consumer society is dying
• It is already quite late!!!
57
The End! At Last!
Thank you for listening!
58