Transcript Arizona State University

Arizona State University
Strategic Business Planning Framework
ABOR Meeting
January 29, 2010
7/7/2015
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Presentation Overview
ASU Vision and Goals (The Long-Term Vision)
ABOR 2020 (The Ten Year Goals)
Situation Report
Arizona Design Characteristics
Strategic Business Planning Elements
The Long Term Structure
The Risk Factors
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ASU Vision and Goals & ABOR 2020
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ASU Vision and Goals
To establish ASU as the model for a New American University, measured not
by who we exclude, but rather by who we include; pursuing research and
discovery that benefits the public good; assuming major responsibility for the
economic, social, and cultural vitality and health and well-being of the
community.
 National Comprehensive University by 2012
 Access to Quality for All
 Establish National Standing in Quality and Impact of Colleges and
Schools in Every Field
 Enhance Our Local Impact and Social Embeddedness
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ABOR 2020
“A top-performing state university system, nationally recognized
for excellence in academic and research pursuits that support
and stimulate a growing vibrant economy and a high quality of
life for Arizonans.”
EDUCATIONAL EXCELLENCE “To be nationally competitive in the
percentage of Arizona’s citizens with a high-quality bachelor’s degree by
providing affordable access through a well-coordinated and aligned system.”
ASU
Access to Quality for All
Key Metric:
Increase Bachelor Degrees Awarded by 47% (to 16,400) by 2020
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ABOR 2020
“A top-performing state university system, nationally recognized
for excellence in academic and research pursuits that support
and stimulate a growing vibrant economy and a high quality of
life for Arizonans.”
RESEARCH EXCELLENCE “To increase the research capabilities and
performance of the Arizona University System to a level of competitive
prominence with peer rankings of top American research universities.”
ASU
National Comprehensive University by 2012
Establish National Standing in Quality and Impact of Colleges
and Schools in Every Field
Key Metric:
Increase Research Expenditures by 100% (to $655 million) by 2020
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ABOR 2020
“A top-performing state university system, nationally recognized
for excellence in academic and research pursuits that support
and stimulate a growing vibrant economy and a high quality of
life for Arizonans.”
WORKFORCE & COMMUNITY “To utilize research, economic development,
community engagement, and service contributions of the universities to create
and disseminate knowledge to strengthen Arizona’s economy and improve
Arizona’s quality of life.”
ASU
Enhance Our Local Impact and Social Embeddedness
Key Metric: Bachelor and Master Degrees in Fields Key to Economic
Development and Quality of Life
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ABOR 2020
“A top-performing state university system, nationally recognized
for excellence in academic and research pursuits that support
and stimulate a growing vibrant economy and a high quality of
life for Arizonans.”
PRODUCTIVITY “To maximize the use of existing resources so that the
system can produce greater numbers of degrees and with greater efficiency of
resources per degree without sacrificing quality.”
ASU
Meet Goals While Maintaining a Cost Structure Below that of its Peers
Key Metric: Total Cost per FTE
Key Metric: Reduce Average Tuition Price Through Structural
Innovations
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Situation Report
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Funding Situation
In a growth institution, funding per FTE is the most important single measure of
the resources needed to advance.
Funding per FTE had been growing since FY2003 from both tuition and state
sources.
ASU had been making substantial progress in indicators while expanding
enrollment.
Major step backwards in funding availability occurred in FY09 and FY10.
State funding per FTE was reduced to the level in FY1981.
Availability of stimulus and surcharge has permitted ASU to defer either
substantial reductions or larger tuition increases.
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General Fund per Full Time Equivalent Student
(adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index)
10,000
9,151
9,062
9,000
8,972
8,763
8,590
8,774
8,769
7,990
8,000
8,498
8,385
8,337
8,787
8,339
8,368
7,976
8,476
8,051
8,164
7,419
7,255
7,000
6,517
6,670
6,884
6,788
6,740
6,513
6,201
6,000
5,933
5,970
5,657
5,000
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
1992-93
1991-92
1990-91
1989-90
1988-89
1987-88
1986-87
1985-86
1984-85
1983-84
1982-83
1981-82
1980-81
4,000
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Arizona State University First-Year Persistence Rates
First-Time, Full-Time Freshmen
1988–2008
83%
81%
Goal is 87% by 2020
79%
77%
75%
73%
71%
69%
67%
65%
63%
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Fall Entering Cohorts
2004
2006
2008
Six-Year Graduation Rates
First-Time, Full-Time Freshmen, 1987 – 2003
60%
58%
Goal is 67% by 2020
56%
54%
52%
50%
48%
46%
44%
42%
40%
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Fall Entering Cohorts
1999
2001
2003
ASU Total Research Expenditures
Goal is $655M by 2020
Goal is $655M by 2020
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Arizona Design Characteristics
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Arizona Design Characteristics
Existing pipeline to the universities is very small as compared to other states.
College attending age group in AZ is growing faster (4%) than nationally (2%)( per US
Census)
High School Graduates:
75% of the 75,700 AZ high school seniors will graduate in 2010 (=56,800) (per ADE)
27,300 (48%) of high school graduates will be eligible to attend universities (per ABOR)
29,500 (52%) of high school graduates will not be eligible to attend universities
Of those 27,300 eligible graduates:
13,400 will enroll in AZ public universities as first time freshmen (per IPEDS)
9,500 will attend an AZ community college (per ADE)
3,000 will attend college out of state (per ADE)
1,400 will not pursue any form of higher education
Community College Students:
70,500 of AZ’s community college students in 2004/05 were new to higher education (per
UOIA)
24,500 indicated an intent to transfer (per UOIA)
15,900 demonstrated transfer behavior over the following year (per UOIA)
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Arizona Design Characteristics
At this time, our ability to grow enrollment is only reliant on:





Population growth
Capturing more of the 9,500 eligible students who attend community college
Capturing some of the 3,000 students who go out of state
Capturing some of the 1,400 students who do not attend college
Improved retention
Even with improved retention, ASU targets alone requires over 3,000 additional
freshmen and over 3,000 additional transfers per year by 2020.
This pipeline will not suffice.
In truth, given this pipeline, we have built a university system that is adequately sized to
handle the students currently being prepared properly who chose the universities over
the community colleges or going out-of-state.
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Arizona Design Characteristics
The ability to reach the enrollment targets is dependent upon improved performance
throughout the education system in Arizona.
What one gets from improvements:

Raise high school graduation rates above 75%.
(Getting to 90% creates 11,300 more graduates)

Increase the high school eligibility rate above 48%
(Getting to 65% creates 9,650 to 17,000 more eligible graduates)

Increase the proportion of community college students who seek to transfer (35%)
and do what is needed to transfer (65%).
(Raising the proportion who intend to transfer to 50% and raising the transfer
performance to 80% creates 12,300 more transfer students)
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Strategic Business Planning Elements
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Strategic Business Planning Elements: Enrollment
Increase undergraduate enrollment from Arizona
More freshmen from Arizona high schools
More transfers from Arizona community colleges
Increased K-12 partnerships to build college participation
Improve performance in producing degrees by raising graduation rates
Continue and expand innovative uses of technology
Continue to strengthen advising quality
Continue to expand pre-enrollment interventions
Focus on learning outcomes
Increase out of state and international undergraduate enrollment to over 30%
Build national brand and visibility
Increased recruiting activity
Partnerships with community colleges outside AZ and international institutions
Selective use of Western University Exchange rates
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Strategic Business Planning Elements: Resources and Pricing
Introduce a variety of lower cost options for bachelor degrees
MAPP and TAG pathways
Online degree offerings
Colleges @ ASU-augmented online bachelor degree partnerships
with community colleges
Colleges @ ASU-geographically distributed locations
Develop a funding structure that reduces dependence on state appropriations
Tuition increases to national/peer levels
Financial aid policies directly focused on very specific outcomes (recruitment of top
students and assuring access to a diverse student body)
Increased out-of-state and international enrollment
Highly effective, technologically innovative, cost-effective online programs
Continued creative use of funding partnerships
Rebuild reserves to increase financial strength and debt capacity
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Strategic Business Planning Elements: Research
Continued faculty replacement and expansion as the highest funding priority
To support teaching mission
To support research mission
Match research capacity to funding trends, national needs, and local strengths
Accelerate the development of partnerships
Among disciplines and departments at ASU
With local and national businesses
Encourage development of local technology clusters with other research institutions
Launch a “national laboratory”
Maintain pace in building new research facilities and research support structures
New construction where needed
Reuse of available facilities
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Strategic Business Planning Elements: Workforce
Expand graduate enrollment
Create specialty master’s programs to address emerging
needs identified in new employment areas
Expand Fulton Schools of Engineering, College of
Technology and Innovation, and College of Nursing and
Health Innovation to support key industries (with
appropriate program fees)
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Projected Capital Requirements to 2020
Limited facility expansion for university teaching support
Accommodate faculty growth in Tempe
Carey expansion
Nearer-term enrollment growth support in Downtown Phoenix
Longer-term enrollment growth support at West and Polytechnic
New program development at all campuses
$350 million
Repairs and Rehabilitation
Address deferred maintenance on all campuses
Facilities rejuvenation to support retention and graduation in Tempe
Sun Devil Stadium refurbishment
Regular technology refreshment
$500 million
New platforms
Colleges @ ASU
Partnership locations
Start-up equipment
$150 million
Research facilities
COM-PHX -post HSEB
Expand research infrastructure to accommodate growth (post ISTB 4)
Existing facility upgrades as new faculty are added
$735 million
Total capital needs for teaching and student support
Total capital needs for research
Total capital needs (in 2010 dollars)
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$1.000 billion
735 million
$1.735 billion
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Capital Requirements
$1.0 billion over next ten years for teaching and student support projects
$735 million for research facilities
Excludes residence halls expansion via third parties and fee-supported
student life projects
Will need to continue to develop partnership approach that has been very
successful over the past eight years
Assumes system revenues and credit ratings at levels sufficient to support the
significant debt load increase
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Research Space
Research Expenditures
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The Goal for the 2020 Structure
Undergraduate Enrollment
University
Colleges and CC partnerships
Online (in-state)
Total
Plus: Online (national)
Graduate Enrollment
University
Colleges and partnerships
Online (in-state)
Total
Plus: Online (national)
Fall 2009
========
53,400 98%
0 0%
900 2%
54,300 100%
Fall 2020
=========
58,700 75%
13,200 17%
6,300 8%
78,200 100%
+ 16,400
13,800 92%
0
1,200 8%
15,000 100%
20,000 90%
0
2,000 10%
22,000 100%
+ 13,700
Total online enrollment (undergraduate/graduate)
38,400
Relative mix between research campuses and bachelor /partnership institutions should continue to
shift over time after 2020. 50-50 mix is typical in other states.
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The 2020 Structure: Funding Sources for Education and General
(activities)
Funding Sources
In-state undergraduate tuition
Out-of-undergraduate state tuition
Graduate tuition
State funds for university (with no growth)*
Colleges and partnership tuition
State funds for colleges and partnerships
Online (net)
Temporary stimulus
Total
FY10
=========
24%
22%
9%
40%
0%
0%
0%
5%
100%
FY15
=========
33%
23%
11%
29%
1%
1%
2%
0%
100%
FY20
=========
32%
25%
12%
22%
4%
3%
3%
0%
100%
*As a proportion of the tuition and state funds component of the total budget only.
Note: State support is about 22% of the overall FY10 operating budget, and under these
funding assumptions would decline to about 10% in FY 2020.
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The Long Term Structure: Funding Adequacy
State Appropriation and
Tuition Funding Per FTE
University:
Projected actual
$17,000 Goal adjusted for inflation
Shortfall
University and Colleges Combined:
Projected actual
Goal (varies) adjusted for inflation
Shortfall
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FY2009
=========
FY2015
=========
FY2020
=========
$14,700
$16,500
$19,300
($2,800)
$20,200
$21,900
($1,900)
$14,700
$16,200
$18,200
($2,000)
$19,300
$19,800
($500)
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The Long Term Structure: Pricing
Implications of Long term Structure
on Resident Undergraduate Tuition
University
CC transfers to university
Colleges and Partnerships
Online
FY2012
FY2020 (Adjusted)
Rate % at
Rate % at
Goal Rate
Goal Rate
===========
===========
$8,500 70%
$8,500 42%
$6,000 30%
$6,000 33%
$5,350 0%
$5,350 20%
$5,000 2%
$5,000 5%
FY2020
Actual Average
Rate Increase
============
$14,200 6.7%
$10,300 7.0%
$7,800 4.8%
$7,500 5.2%
Average Undergraduate Tuition based on FY12 and FY20 distributions
At current rates
$7,850
$6,860
12.6% less
Average Undergraduate Tuition based on longer term distribution
(33%/22%/30%/15%)
At current rates
$7,850
$6,480
17.5% less
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Metrics
Base Undergraduate Metrics
Enroll in university platforms
Enroll in alternate platforms
Enroll in online
Added enroll in out-of-state online
FY05
Actual
FY10
Projected
======= =======
100%
98.4%
0%
2.2%
0%
1.6%
0%
0%
FY13
High-End
Projection
=======
95.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2.9%
FY16
High-End
Projection
=======
86.5%
9.1%
4.4%
8.7%
FY20
High-End
Projection
=======
75.0%
17.0%
8.0%
12.8%
Freshman intake
Total Transfer intake
On-line intake
8,732
7,720
0
9,647
7,755
403
11,050
9,300
2,100
12,275
10,500
4,550
13,000
11,200
6,650
Degrees produced
9,896
11,192
13,400
17,300
20,600
First year university retention
Six year university graduation rate
79.0%
55.5%
83.0%
56.5%
85.0%
57.5%
86.5%
60.0%
87.0%
66.5%
Research funding
$175M
$305M
$425M
$530M
$655M
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Risk Factors
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Environment: Resources
The next two years are critical.
The ability to maintain the current levels of support and performance will lay all the ground work for
future success or failure. Added cuts today will take a decade or more to recover from.
Uncertainty, particularly regarding funding, will continue making firm planning difficult.
State funding cannot be expected to grow in the next three years due to the current budget crisis.
While state funding will begin to be available for new investments, planning should not assume state
funding for universities will grow significantly.
Funding to support new platforms is more likely.
In the near-term, substantial tuition increases simply replace stimulus funding; limited opportunity for
new investment.
In the longer-term, if State investment resumes in universities, there will be moderate tuition rate
growth. If State investment is held steady or declines, tuition rates will continue to grow towards
national upper-tier.
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Environment: Enrollment
K-12 system improvements are not assured, but even if graduation rates and
preparation levels improve, the impact on university and college intake will be at least
three to five years away.
Community college partnerships will continue to improve and will be a greater influence
on university and college intake increases over the next three to five years.
State demographic growth is likely to slow from recent rates for at least three years, and
while likely to be above average in the longer term, may not return to national-leader
levels again.
Impact of stimulus program on research funding will end. Funding environment may be
more competitive, but organizational efforts and focused hiring in last two years will
leave ASU in a good position to advance.
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Risk Factors and Uncertainties
State population demographics–return to rapid growth experienced in 2000-2007 or
continuation of flatter population trend now being seen?
Will K-12 begin to produce larger numbers of qualified graduates?
Can community college partnerships be maintained or will historical counter-productive
competition and role confusion return?
Is there State commitment to higher education?
External factors become increasingly important.
Can out-of state students be attracted to ASU in increasing numbers?
Can ASU compete by offering innovative online programs?
Sources of capital funding and debt limits.
Can the faculty size be increased enough with projected funding?
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