Transcript Slide 1

What Percentage
of Churches are
Declining in the United
States?
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2006 by David T. Olson
The Conventional Wisdom
It was trumpeted in the first line of the
article in Leadership Journal in August,
2005. “85% of American churches
are declining or plateaued.” That
has been the conventional wisdom, the
ecclesiastical myth circulating for over a
decade.
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Can that be Right?
Doesn’t that seem a little high? Where did
this confident fact come from? What
was the source of the research
mentioned?
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Definitions
There are a couple of definitions that have to be clarified before
the truth can be known. One question is, “What standard is
used to determine what plateaued means?” The original
definition was ‘attendance changing less than 2% in decline or
growth a year.’ Here are two examples of how that would work.
A church that grew from 500 – 600 in a decade would be
considered plateaued. And one that declined from 500 to 400
would still be plateaued. Neither seem to fit the definition of
plateaued. There is a simple way out of the predicament of
deciding what qualifies as plateaued - only consider whether a
church has grown, declined or stayed exactly the same.
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Should We Include New
Churches?
A second question is whether to include new churches.
Since we are talking about ‘American churches’ we
really should include them. But they do create a
distortion. About 36,000 new churches a year are
started each decade in America. That means out of
the 300,000 orthodox Christian churches in America,
12% have no option but to grow, since they start
with zero in attendance. In some ways that skews
the intended information to be gained, because we
really are trying to find out the percentage of
established churches that are grew or declined.
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Who was Studied?
For this study, I looked at only established
churches that existed both 10 years ago and
today. I used the categories declined, same
and grew. I looked at 15 denominations, 8
Evangelical and 7 Mainline, totaling almost
120,000 established Protestant churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian
churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in
the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Here are the Results of the
Study
Among 122,190 established churches
over a ten year period of time:
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55% declined
4% stayed the same
41% grew
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Percentage of Established Churches Declining Over the Last Decade
55.1%
60.0%
41.3%
50.0%
40.0%
Declined
Same
Grew
30.0%
20.0%
3.53%
10.0%
0.0%
Total
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Mainline and Evangelical Churches
Differed Significantly
A significantly higher percentage of Mainline
churches are declining than Evangelical
churches.
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Percentage of Established Churches Declining Over the Last Decade
70.0%
60.3%
60.0%
49.2%
46.7%
50.0%
36.4%
40.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
4.0%
3.3%
0.0%
Declined
Same
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Grew
Mainline Churches
Among 67,893 established Mainline
churches over a ten year period of time:
•
•
•
60% declined
3% stayed the same
36% grew
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Percentage of Established Mainline Churches Declining Over the Last Decade
67%
68%
66%
66%
64%
64%
64%
62%
59%
60%
58%
58%
57%
56%
54%
52%
50%
EC
UMC
COTB
PCUSA
DC
© 2006 by David T. Olson
ELCA
RCA
Evangelical Churches
Among 54,297 established Mainline
churches over a ten year period of time:
•
•
•
49% declined
4% stayed the same
47% grew
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Percentage of Established Evangelical Churches Declining Over the Last Decade
70%
66%
60%
54%
56%
49%
47%
50%
44%
41%
40%
34%
30%
20%
10%
0%
EFCA
C&MA
BGC
SBC
COGCL
COTN
© 2006 by David T. Olson
ECC
LCMS
And the Winner!
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The denomination that had the highest
growth rate was the Evangelical Free
Church.
The denomination that had the highest
decline rate was the Reformed Church
of America.
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Percentage of Established Churches Declining Over the Last Decade
70%
66%
64%
60%
54%
56%
57%
58%
66%
67%
64%
59%
49%
50%
47%
44%
41%
40%
34%
30%
20%
10%
0%
EFCA
C&MA
BGC
SBC
COGCL COTN
ECC
EC
UMC
COTB PCUSA
© 2006 by David T. Olson
DC
ELCA
LCMS
RCA
Denominations
BGC
C&MA
DC
EC
ECC
EFCA
ELCA
COGCL
COTB
COTN
LCMS
PCUSA
RCA
SBC
UMC
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Baptist General Conference
Christian and Missionary Alliance
Disciples of Christ
Episcopal Church
Evangelical Covenant Church
Evangelical Free Church of America
Evangelical Lutheran Church of America
Church of God, Cleveland, TN
Church of the Brethren
Church of the Nazarene
Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod
Presbyterian Church - USA
Reformed Church of America
Southern Baptist Convention
United Methodist Church
© 2006 by David T. Olson
Information on the
Information
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The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2006 by David T. Olson
This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2006 by David T. Olson
For More Information . . .
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Presentations such as this are available for the largest
80 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation
as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what
is happening in the American church. Presentations are
available either by direct download, CD or print. Please
go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering
information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2006 by David T. Olson