Transcript HadOCC: The Ocean Carbon Cycle Model

CAMELS
CAMELS PROJECT OVERVIEW
Peter Cox, Hadley Centre, Met Office
1

Motivation for CAMELS

Deliverables

Products

Structure
CAMELS
Kyoto Sinks
Article 3.3 : “The net change in greenhouse gas emissions by sources and
removals by sinks resulting from direct human-induced land-use change and
forestry activities, …… measured as verifiable changes … shall be used to
meet the commitments.”
Article 3.4 : “……each Party …… shall provide …… data to establish its level of
carbon stocks in 1990 and to enable an estimate to be made of its changes in
carbon stocks in subsequent years……”
2
CAMELS and the Kyoto Protocol
3
CAMELS

Annex I countries are permitted to partially offset their emissions of
CO2 by carbon accumulated due to forest management and “additional
human-induced” change in land-use and land management.

The related sources and sinks of CO2 must be reported in a
“transparent and verifiable manner”.

CAMELS will provide key support to EU countries in meeting their
obligations under Kyoto.
CAMELS Motivating Science Questions
4
CAMELS

Where are the current carbon sources and sinks located on the land
and how do European sinks compare with other large continental
areas?

Why do these sources and sinks exist, i.e. what are the relative
contributions of CO2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, climate
variability, land management and land-use change?

How could we make optimal use of existing data sources and the latest
models to produce operational estimates of the European land carbon
sink?
CAMELS
Inverse Modelling
Method : Use atmospheric transport model to infer CO2 sources and sinks most
consistent with atmospheric CO2 measurements.
Advantages : a) Large-scale; b) Data based (transparency).
Disadvantages : a) Uncertain (network too sparse); b) not constrained by
ecophysiological understanding; c) net CO2 flux only (cannot isolate land
management).
5
CAMELS
Inverse Modelling - Uncertainties
Fan et al. (1998): 1.7 GtC/yr sink in North America.
Bousquet et al. (1999): 0.5 +/- 0.6 GtC/yr in North America, 1.3 GtC/yr in Siberia.
6
CAMELS
Forward Modelling
Method : Build “bottom-up” process-based models of land and ocean carbon
uptake.
Advantages : a) Include physical and ecophysiological constraints; b) Can isolate
land-management effects; c) can be used predictively (not just monitoring).
Disadvantages : a) Uncertain (gaps in process understanding); b) Do not make
optimal use of large-scale observational constraints.
7
CAMELS
Forward Modelling - Land Uncertainties
Smoothed Mean
and Standard
Deviation of
DGVM Predictions
(Cramer et al., 2001)
Diagram from Royal
Soc. Sinks Report
8
CAMELS Products
9
CAMELS

Best estimates and uncertainty bounds for the contemporary and
historical land carbon sinks in Europe and elsewhere, isolating the
effects of direct land-management.

A prototype carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS) exploiting
existing data sources (e.g. flux measurements, carbon inventory data,
satellite products) and the latest terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs),
in order to produce operational estimates of “Kyoto sinks“.
CAMELS Workpackages
10
CAMELS

WP1. Data Harmonisation and Consolidation (ALTERRA)

WP2. Model Validation and Uncertainty Analysis (MPI-BGC)

WP3. Modelling of the 20th Century Land Carbon Balance (LSCE)

WP4. Development of a System for Carbon Data Assimilation (MetO)

WP5. Dissemination of Information (UNITUS)
CAMELS
CAMELS Flow Diagram
11
CAMELS Facts and figures
12
CAMELS

CAMELS is a key part of the CarboEurope cluster.

CAMELS involves a coordinator (Met Office), 8 contractors (CEA, MPIBGC, ALTERRA, UNITUS, EFI, NERC, CNRS, JRC) and 1
subcontractor (FastOpt).

CAMELS will receive 1.4MEuro over 3 years from 1st Nov 2002-31st
Oct 2005.

CAMELS will provide improved estimates or historical and
contemporary land carbon sinks.

CAMELS will combine the best data sources and forward carbon
models to produce a carbon cycle data assimilation system.
CAMELS
CAMELS Deliverables 1
D1.1
Biome-specific datasets to drive and
validate TEMs.
Month 6
Da
PU
D1.2
Atmospheric CO2 dataset for use in
nowcasting system.
Month 9
Da
PU
D1.3
Land-use and nitrogen deposition
historical datasets (1900-2000).
Month
12
Da
PU
D1.4
Datasets of recent change in European
land carbon.
Month
15
Da
PU
Dataset of fAPAR for Europe
Month
18
Da
PU
Report on improved process
representation in TEMs.
Month
18
Re
PU
D1.5
D2.1
13
CAMELS
CAMELS Deliverables 2
14
D2.2
Biome-dependent ecosystem parameters
plus uncertainty bounds for each TEM .
Month
24
Da
PU
Month
24
Si
PU
D3.1
Contemporary carbon stores and TEM
parameters constrained by 20th century
simulations.
Simulations of the historical land carbon
balance, with and without land-use
change.
Month
30
Si
PU
D3.2
Diagnosis of thecauses of the European
land carbon sink in the context of the
Kyoto Proto.
Month
36
Si
PU
D3.3
D4.1
Report on design of nowcasting carbon
data assimilation system.
Month
30
Re
PU
D4.2
Estimates of the contemporary European
land carbon sink, and its causes.
Month
36
Si
PU
CAMELS
CAMELS Deliverables 3
15
D5.1
Project website with a layered structure.
Month 3
Pr
PU
D5.2
Online and ad hoc consultation to
European Commission.
As
Required
Expert
Advice
CO
Report on the estimation of the
contemporary land carbon sink and its
causes.
Month
36
Re
Pu
D5.3