Transcript Document

Southwest Business Forum
January 11, 2008
Fort Lewis College’s 16th Annual
Focus on Our Future:
Business and Economics
Sponsored by Wells Fargo San
Juan Market
The La Plata County
Economy
Region 9 Population
La Plata Montezuma Archuleta
Dolores
San
Juan
2007
48,563
25,439
12,777
1,921
582
2006
47,936
25,217
12,386
1,911
578
2005
47,230
24,767
11,882
1,809
568
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Annual Growth in Population
Region 9 Population Growth
6%
5%
4%
La Plata
3%
Montezuma
Archuleta
2%
1%
0%
2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to
2001 2002
2003
2004 2005
2006 2007
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Region 9 Annual Wages
$34,000
Annual Wages
$32,000
$30,000
Archuleta
$28,000
La Plata
$26,000
Montezuma
$24,000
$22,000
$20,000
2001 2002
2003 2004 2005
2006 2007
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.
Region 9 Annual Wage Growth
Annual Growth in Wages
9%
8%
7%
6%
Archuleta
5%
La Plata
4%
Montezuma
3%
2%
1%
-1%
2001 to
2002
2002 to 2003 to
2004
2003
2004 to 2005 to
2006
2005
2006 to
2007
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.
Region 9 Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
6
5
4
Archuleta
3
La Plata
Montezuma
2
1
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.
Major Industries in Region 9
Industry
2001
2006
Change
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
26.1%
23.2%
-2.9%
Leisure and Hospitality
23.2%
20.4%
-2.8%
Construction
10.3%
14.7%
+4.4%
Education and Health Services
14.2%
13.5%
-0.7%
Professional and Business
Services
8.4%
10.3%
+1.9%
Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Tourism

Tourism Includes:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Airport Passengers
Train Ridership
Mesa Verde Visitors
Lodger’s Tax Collected
Skier Boarder Visits
Airport Passenger Activity
Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
Percent Change
15%
12%
12%
10%
8%
5%
5%
2%
6%
7%
4%
1%
0%
-5%
1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 20061996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-10%
-8%
-11%
-15%
-13%
Year
Source: Durango - La Plata County Airport
e = estimate
Train Passenger Activity
Percent Change By Year (2001-2007e)
24.7
Percent Change
30
20
-0.5
10
3.3
0.5
0
-10
2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007
-1.2
-20
-30
-40
-32.8
Year
Source: Durango & Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad
e = estimate
Percent Change
Mesa Verde Visitors
Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
20
14
15
10.6 11
9.6
10
5.2
2.4
2.1
2
5
0
-51995-1996 1997-1998 1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006
-10
-3.9
-6.9
-15
-20
-25
-22
-30
-28
-35
Year
Source: National Park Service Public Use Statistics Office
e = estimate
Lodger’s Tax Revenue (in 1995 $s)
Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
Percent Change
15.0%
10.0%
4.5%
4.0%
5.0%
6.2%
7.2%
2003-2004
2005-2006
0.7%
0.0%
-5.0% 1995-1996
-10.0%
1997-1998
-2.2% -0.4%
1999-2000
-1.9%
2001-2002
-2.9%
-0.6%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
-19.9%
Year
Sources: City of Durango and La Plata County
e = estimate
8.90%
Skier/Boarder Visits
Year
Purgatory
(DMR)
2000/01
United States
(millions)
57.3
2001/02
54.4
251,000
2002/03
57.6
236,000
2003/04
57.1
268,000
2004/05
56.9
278,000
2005/06
58.8
211,000
2006/07
60.4
217,000e
322,000
Sources: National Ski Association and Annual Reports
e = estimate with regression
Retail Sales
(Adjusted for Inflation)

An indicator of tourism activity as well
as population growth.
Retail Sales (in 1995 $s)
Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
16
14.6
Percent Change
14
12
9.2
10
8
6.6
6.2
5.3
6
4
3.2
3.2
2
-0.6
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.4
0
-2
1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 20061996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Source: Colorado Department of Revenue
e = estimate
Employment

Indicates job growth in the economy.
Employment
Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
Percent Change
15
12.6
10
7.2
6.5
8.3
4.9
5
1
1.6
2.5
2.1
0.3
0.2
0
-5
1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 20061996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-5.8
-10
Year
Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
e = estimate
2008 Tourism, Retail, & Employment Outlook

Tourism: Dependent upon discretionary spending

Retail: Cushioned by local spending

Employment: Stable unemployment; lower wages
Agriculture

Includes Calf Prices and Alfalfa Hay
Prices – adjusted for inflation.

A better measure would be sales, but
these numbers are not available.
Alfalfa Hay Prices
Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
35.9
Percent Change
40
30
20
17.2
15.7
12.4
10
3.3
12.3
5.6
0
-10
-20
1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 20061996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-13.2
-0.3
-1.4
-9.2
-20.3
-30
Year
Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market
Information System
e = estimate
Calf Prices, Adjusted Dollar Value per Cut Weight
Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
Percent Change
50
40.1
40
30
18.3
20
10
12.7
12.4
5.7
9.8
0
-10
-20
-30
1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 20061996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-5.4
-14
-1.1 -11
-5
-23
Year
Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market
Information System
e = estimate
2008 Agriculture Outlook

Increased prices in field-based commodity prices
 Drought
across nation
 Corn-based ethanol

Decreased prices in calf prices
 Not
passing input costs to consumer
 Ranchers/farmers not buying calves with increased feed
costs
Industrial Kilowatt-Hours

Used as an indicator of industrial activity in
the county.

Most industrial usage of electricity in the
county is to compress natural gas for
transmission through gas pipelines
Industrial Kilowatt Hours
Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
60
50.9
50
Percent Change
40
30
20
10
9.1
10.2
6.6
6.9
6.5
7
0.5
0
-10
1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 20061996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-0.5
-2.3
-6.3
-7.3
-20
Year
Source: La Plata Electric Association Inc.
e = estimate
2007-2008 Observations for Oil & Gas


Given the current regulations in the oil & gas
industry, the region is producing natural gas near
full capacity
Certain market pundits are calling this the year of
natural gas
Fort Lewis College
Enrollment

The college stabilizes the economy
because of higher enrollment in the
fall and winter months. This offsets
some of the decline in tourism during
this time period.
Fort Lewis College Enrollment (Fall)
Percent Change By Year (1995-2007)
8.0%
6.2%
Percent Change
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
3.6%
2.1%
1.0%
0.2%
0.7%
0.0%
-2.0% 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 20071996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-2.1%
-1.6%
-4.0%
-1.0%
-0.4% -2.8%
-3.8%
-6.0%
-5.8%
-8.0%
Year
Source: Fort Lewis College
2008 Fort Lewis College Outlook

Increased admission standards at FLC
 Comparable
with UC-Boulder and CSU

Slight dip in enrollment last several years

Intermediate-term goal is 5,000 students
Residential Real Estate

Median Price for La Plata County is
used in the index.
Median Home Price of
Single-Family Homes in La Plata County
Median Home Price
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
% Change in Median Home Price
Percentage Change in Price of
Single-Family Homes in La Plata County
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2003 to 2004
-5.00%
-10.00%
2004 to 2005
2005 to 2006
2006 to 2007
Average Days on Market of
Single-Family Homes in La Plata County
Average Days On Market
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Median Home Price of
Condos/Town Homes in La Plata County
Median Home Price
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total Number of Transactions of
Condos/Town Homes in La Plata County
Total # of Transactions
500
400
300
200
100
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
% Change in Median Home Price
Median Home Price Change of
Single-Family Homes in In-Town Durango
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2003 to 2004
-5.00%
-10.00%
2004 to 2005
2005 to 2006
2006 to 2007
Days on Market of
Single-Family Homes in In-Town Durango
Average Days On Market
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Building Permits

This indicator uses the adjusted
dollar valuation of the properties for
which permits were issued—thereby
measuring the dollar value (as
assessed) of new construction in La
Plata County.
Building Permits (Construction)
Percent Change By Year (2002-2007e)
40%
Percent Change
30%
28%
25%
20%
10%
0%
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
-10%
-20%
2005-2006
2006-2007
-7%
-19%
-24%
-30%
Year
Sources: La Plata County Building Department, City of Durango
Planning and Community Development Department
e = estimate
2008 Real Estate Outlook





Rest of the nation bracing for worst real estate
correction since the Depression
National builders report a bottom is not in place
Single-family homes = healthy correction
Condos/Town Homes = less healthy correction
Building permits = significant decline
Bank Deposits

An important indicator of the economic
health of the community.

Also an indicator of the ability of local
banks to make loans to consumers and
business borrowers.
Bank Deposits
(Unadjusted)
June 30th
Deposits
Year to Year %
Change
2002
$615,000,000
2003
2004
$702,000,000
$778,000,000
+14.2
+10.8
2005
2006
2007
$874,000,000
$1,020,000,000
$1,034,000,000
+12.3
+16.7
+1.4
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Inflation
Durango Price Index (DPI)

Monitors the change in the price of goods
and services in our region

Durango Price Index
 Adjust
Denver CPI for Durango housing and
income levels
 Assumes similar other expenditure patterns as
Denver consumers
Durango Price Index versus Denver CPI
114.00
110.00
108.00
DPI
106.00
Denver CPI
104.00
102.00
.1
20
07
.1
20
06
.1
20
05
.1
20
04
.1
20
03
.1
20
02
.1
100.00
20
01
Price Index
112.00
Annual Inflation Rate: Durango vs. Denver
Annual Inflation Rate
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
Durango
2.00%
Denver
1.00%
0.00%
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
-1.00%
to
to
to
to
to
to
20
20
20
20
20
20
07
06
05
04
03
02
Weight of Housing Costs: Durango vs. Denver
0.35
0.30
DPI
Denver CPI
0.25
0.20
2007
2006
2006
2005
2005
2004
2004
2003
2003
2002
2002
2001
0.15
2001
Weight of Housing Costs
0.40
2008 Inflation Outlook

Durango housing rents will probably increase

Increased expenses in commodity prices

Decreased consumer spending
Our Web Address:
http://soba.fortlewis.edu/econoweb/
Thank You!