Transcript Слайд 1 - Tallinn University
INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (IMEMO) RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
ALEXANDER DYNKIN
Картина мира, сущностно понятая, означает не картину, изображающую мир, а мир, понятый в смысле такой картины.
М.Хайдеггер 2
3
CONTENTS and METHODOLOGY
•
IDEOLOGY
•
ECONOMY
•
SOCIAL TRENDS
•
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM
•
COUNTRIES AND REGIONS
•
CONCLUSIONS FOR RUSSIA. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 4
Мы избегаем популистских сценариев
Без сценариев судного дня и апокалипсиса Без пасторали
5
Working hypothesis of the Outlook
•
Evolutionary trend as the basic trend of the world development.
•
System failures and crises in certain countries and regions will not have a great influence on the evolutionary logic, but possibly strengthen it.
•
Enhancing the quality of new trends of globalization in all spheres: politics, ideology, economy, security, social development.
•
Polycentricism and speeding up hierarchical world order changes of the post-bipolar world.
6
World economy – average projected GDP growth rates by region, % 7
Developed and developing countries?
84,5 No principal changes 85,3 86,0 86,4 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 15,5 14,7 14,0 13,6
2000 2010 2020 2030
Развитые страны World population structure
, %
Dramatic changes 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0
2000 2010
Развивающиеся страны
2020 2030 GDP, $ bln in PPP and prices of 2009 8
Global economy
•
The pace of world economic growth will be higher than in 1990-2010. It will lead to a certain doubling of global GDP.
•
The world economy will grew annually by an amount approximately equal to the GDP of modern Germany each year.
•
Economic growth will be provided with improved productivity and efficiency of investment, the serious resource constraints will not occur.
•
Knowledge and Innovation – the main sources of efficiency gains.
•
Possible issues – the global regulation mismatch of the second phase of globalization, especially in the financial sector, strengthening the structural imbalances of the world economy.
9
Расчеты по ППС и по официальным курсам (дуализм сопоставлений) меняют соотношение Китай-США-ЕС, положение России по сравнению с ними меняется мало 30000 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
2000 2010 2020 2030
США ЕС 27
ВВП, млрд долл., в ценах и по ППС 2009 года
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
2000 2010 2020 2030
Китай Россия
ВВП, млрд долл., по среднегодовым курсам 2009 года 10
Развитые страны сохранят или усилят отрыв по уровню и эффективности развития 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
1990
Мир в целом
2000 2010
Развитые страны
2020
Развивающиеся страны
2030 Производительность труда, тыс. долл. на одного занятого 11
Global leaders will force R&D and innovation programs; China and India are growing very rapidly
40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 США Япония
2000
ЕС
2010
Россия
2020 2030
Индия
Shares in global R&D expenditures, %
Китай
12
Leaders of R&D and innovation in the next twenty years
• The United States will maintain the role of world leader in the broadest range of R&D and innovation • The European Union will generally maintain its position in certain R&D areas • China will greatly accelerate its technological progress, but will still lag behind the US and the EU in national system of innovation • Japan, as before, will be engaged in research activities in a limited range of fields of knowledge, and more productive in engineering and promotion of innovative products and services • Many medium and small highly developed countries will open new opportunities for themselves in a number of narrow niches, due to rapid progress in the incremental innovations
13
Science. National and International Co-authorsip
14
International Co-authorship. Strengthening global knowledge net
1998 2009
15
Energy Resources Supply
By 2030, the world will not suffer from the shortage of energy resources.
• The major issue will be the cost of the resources • The need to improve energy effectiveness and decarbonisation policy will encourage a search for technological breakthroughs • Results of a breakthrough in many fields of alternative-noncarbon energy will be felt generally by the most developed countries, but this will not happen until 2030.
• However, technological change will allow to make more effective utilization of non-traditional hydrocarbons carriers, in particular, shale gas, coal bed methane etc.
16
Social development
Key social changes
1991-2010 2011-2030
Growth in the global middle class and its expansion outside the community of developed countries
The poor make
up to 30% of the world population (15% – those on the verge of survival) Growing stratification of the global middle class along with the increase of its population in absolute terms A decline in the weight of the poor to 20% and 10%, respectively Gradual development of a new class of millionaires, growing on a mass scale mainly in the USA, the EU and Japan Most of the super-rich in the world are citizens of the United States Rapid increase in the number of millionaires, first of all in China, India, Brazil and Russia Accelerated increase in the number of the super rich due to billionaires in China and other rapidly growing economies
17
Guidelines for social policy
• The middle class will increase on the global scale and will set the pace and quality of growth in social standards • Development of the economy of innovations is creating social “dividing strips” in developed countries. Jobs in many professions become needless, or get filled by low-skilled and low-paid immigrants • Social stratification is expanding in the world not only along the line of “rich countries – poor countries”. The rich in poor countries must, as well as the rich countries themselves, take responsibility for the destiny of “the world poor”.
• The problem of “corporate citizenship” will obtain new forms: benefits enjoyed by those employed by transnational corporations do not apply to all others.
18
International security system
•
The main trend
drift towards “soft” and “smart” powers in foreign policy with following instruments: • Financial and economic superiority • Science and technological advancements • Cultural and educational • Promotion of ideological influence
19
20
Hierarchical International System of Polycentric World: Interstate Level
The USA: global military, innovative, financial and economic leader with significant “soft power” The EU: institutionalized common political and economic entity with characteristics of a “collective actor” China: growing global actor with the potential for leadership role Russia: natural resources, nuclear power, some R&D potential, link between Europe and Pacific Asia Groups of miscellaneous regional leaders with global influence: current – India, Brazil, Germany, Japan; potential – South Africa, Turkey and South Korea Groups of countries differing in their resource availability and power potential with limited capabilities to influence on regional and global political and economic processes 21
Conclusions for Russia risks and opportunities
•
During next twenty years, Russia should efficiently adapt its domestic and foreign strategy to main trends in global development in order to avoid finding itself in a marginal position, to cope with future risks and to exploit new opportunities coming from globalization
22
Conclusions for Russia: risks and opportunities. Ideology
Risks
Spreading of radical nationalist ideas, concepts of exceptionality, confrontational self-identification in Russia A renaissance of the most radical ideas of “equality” and “fairness”
Opportunities
Self-identification of Russia as a Euro-Pacific nation, a part of global civilization based on European values An extensive multilateral dialog on ideology and values with global leaders and other interested nations A clerical swing of social conscience in the society. Inter confessional conflicts Cooperation with the United States, the EU, China and India in resistance to aggressive Islamism
Messsage: It is necessary to reform political, social, legal and educational institutions according with principles of globalization and non-destabilizing inequality 23
Conclusions for Russia: risks and opportunities. World Economy
RISKS
Conservation of the resource-based economy, Dutch decease Financial and economic losses and marginalization because of limited participation in the processes of integration in Europe and Pacific Asia Lagging behind in participation in multilateral economic forums and global governance system PetroState. Crude oil prices decline. High inflation. Living standarts deteriration.
OPPORTUNITIES
Modernization and reindustrialization based on technological integration with the world centers of innovations A twin-vector economic strategy aimed at integrative cooperation of Russia with both the EU and Pacific Asia Participation in regional (the EU, Pacific Asia) and global financial rescue funds Emerging role of the Russian ruble as a regional currency in trade and financial transactions
on the basis of changes in the structure of economy and exports and effective national financial system
Challenges.The strategy of innovation is directly affecting current interests of the Russian oligarchy. To determine the balance between their interests and long-term interests of the economy in whole is a political task. Second, an idea of a twin-vector economic strategy (can arouse fears that the country may disintegrate and can inspire opposition. 24
Conclusions for Russia: risks and opportunities. Social trends
Risks
An irreversible lag in the development of a middle class. Sliding down in population size, quality of life and the spread of poverty to the level of developing economies Brain drain Negative consequences of the conflict between the interests of the global super-rich and the interests of national governments and societies Abstaining from the creation of a new global social system.
Lagging behind the global education, public health, and welfare trends in
Opportunities
To speed up middle class formation and to raise the quality of life,
relying on
:
industrialisation strategy;
businesses;
bureaucratization
To improve education, medical and social services, using international experience and coordinating social policy with Russia’s neighbors in Europe and Pacific Asia To move to a fully-fledged civil society
Challenge: to reform the existing institutions and avoid a conflict between the civil society and bureaucracy. The latter will suffer personal losses from the narrowing of bureaucracy its functions. Society, must have effective 25
Conclusions for Russia: risks and opportunities. Foreign policy Risks
Rising tensions with the USA in nuclear missile balancing, in missile defence, in global and regional security issues Worsening of relations: with the EU caused by regional problems, energy security, enlargement of NATO, and emerging of a new European security system without Russia; with China – caused by tensions in Central Asia and border problems; with Japan – caused by the territorial issue
Opportunities
To unite efforts with global leaders and ensure global and regional security in multi civilizational, polycentric and competitive global order To successively create a new architecture of security and cooperation in Europe To change strategic nature of Russian-American relations from mutual nuclear deterrence towards mutual nuclear security and cooperation in the BMD Confrontation around the development of the Oceans, the Arctic, the Antarctic and Outer Space To foster ecologically balanced multilateral cooperation in development of the Oceans, the Arctic, the Antarctic and Outer Space
Challenge:T
o overcome or to limit Russia’s traditional perceptions of the United States and China as potential antagonists while formulating conceptual basis of foreign policy and strategy 26