Transcript MDMP Class (Military Decision Making Process)

MDMP Class
(Military Decision Making Process)
What is MDMP
• It is a standardized planning / decision
making model used by the Army:
– Conceptually very easy to understand
– Application in a very dynamic environment is
very difficult
– Art vs. science
Why is it important
• Decision making process needs to be standardized
because:
– Organizational structure is very fluid (players change almost
daily)
– Provides a fundamental / common framework that facilitates
“plug and play” nature of the Army
– Imagine this:
• Your signal platoon has been attached to a unit you’ve never
worked with
• Assigned unit is planning / preparing for a major deployment and
operation
• You have been asked to get linked up with and begin the planning
process
– Standardized planning process facilitates rapid integration of
new players.
Basic Problem Solving Model
• Identify the Problem: I need a car
• Develop solutions: what are my options,
– New / used
– Truck, van, sedan, SUV, or motorcycle
• Compare alternatives: cost, gas mileage,
reliability, etc.
• Decision: used Huffy 3 speed
Fundamentals of Planning
• Troop Leading Procedures:
– Eight step process used to plan and prepare for
military operations.
• MDMP:
– Standardized planning / decision making model
• Staff Estimates:
– Formal process used to fully analyze a problem from
a specific functional area viewpoint (S1, S3, S3, S4,
etc).
Troop Leading Procedures (TLP)
• Eight step process used to plan and prepare for
military operations.
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Receive the mission
Issue a warning order
Make a tentative plan
Initiate movement
Recon
Complete the plan
Issue orders
Supervise
MDMP
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Receive mission
Mission analysis
Course of Action development
COA Analysis
COA Comparison
COA Approval
Orders Production
Estimates
• What is an estimate:
– It is a formal process used to fully analyze a
problem from a specific functional area
viewpoint.
• Who conducts estimates:
– Staff officers: Staff estimate
– Cdrs: Commander estimate
Staff Estimates vs. Cdr Estimates
• Staff Estimate:
– Tailored problem analysis process specific to staff officer’s
functional area of expertise
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Intelligence Officer
Operations Officer
Logistics
Etc.
• Commander’s Estimate:
– A more broad / general analysis of a problem
• Why two different estimates:
– Provides a “somewhat” independent analysis of a problem
– Serves as a checks and balance system to ensure all planners
are thoroughly analyzing the problem
Estimates In Relation to MDMP
Staff Estimate
• Receive mission
• Mission analysis
• Course of Action
development
• COA Analysis
• COA Comparison
• COA Approval
• Orders Production
Cdr Estimate
TLP vs. MDMP vs. Estimates
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Troop Leading Proc.
Receive the mission
Issue a warning order
Make a tentative plan
Initiate movement
Recon
Complete the plan
Issue orders
Supervise
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MDMP
Receive mission
Mission analysis
Course of Action dev.
COA Analysis
COA Comparison
COA Approval
Orders Production
ESTIMATES
• Cdr Estimate
• Staff Estimate
• All three systems are integrated and
mutually supportive
MDMP
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Receive mission
Mission analysis
Course of Action development
COA Analysis
COA Comparison
COA Approval
Orders Production
Next Class
Mission Analysis
• Why:
– Must accurately define the problem
– What am I trying to do, what is the problem I am trying to solve?
– Sometimes problem identification is very easy, sometimes is it
very difficult
– Endstate of Mission Analysis is a clearly defined mission
statement.
• Mission statement provides organizational focus.
– Do I really need a car?
OR
– Do I really need transportation to/from class
Steps of Mission Analysis Process
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Analyze HHQ operations order and other available
documentation
Conduct IPB
Determine: specified / implied / essential tasks
Review available assets
Determine constraints
Identify critical facts and assumptions
Conduct risk assessment
Determine CCIR
Determine initial recon requirements
Plan use of available time
Develop restated mission
Conduct mission analysis brief
Approve restated mission
Develop initial, proposed Cdr’s intent
Issue Cdr’s guidance
Issue warning order
Review facts / assumptions
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Bullets in Red are the only ones we’ll focus on.
Others are beyond the scope of ROTC instruction
Mission Analysis (Analyze Available and Relevant
Documentation)
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Operations Orders
SOPs
Verbal guidance
Polices
Regulations
Any other relevant documents
Maps / Terrain
Mission Analysis (Specified, Implied, Essential Tasks)
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Specified: tasks you have been directed to do.
Implied: tasks you must do, but not necessarily directed to do.
Mission Essential tasks (MET): those few tasks that MUST be
accomplished or risk failure.
Example:
– Task: Prepare 20 page research paper integrating all concepts
learned in Human Resource Management classes.
– Specified:
• Must be 20 pages
• Must be turned in NLT 15 Dec 04
• Must include 10 different sources
• Topic / Outline must be approved NLT 1 Nov 04
• MUST RECEIVE B OR BETTER (CAP STONE PROJECT).
– Implied:
• Conduct interview of local business experts
• Research library for similar papers
• Prepare draft, have friend proof draft
• Find someone to type / edit / bound report
– Mission Essential Tasks:
• Conduct thorough review and selection of relevant resources
• Topic / Outline must be approved by instructor
• Final Draft must be complete by Thanksgiving (vacation / finals)
Mission Analysis (Review Avail. Assets)
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Library
Internet sources
Clubs or professional associations / journals
Subject matter experts within department
Other students who have previously taken course
and written papers on related subject.
• Local business personnel
Mission Analysis (Determine Constraints)
• Restrictions that limit freedom of action:
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Parameters you have to operate within.
Things you have been told you have to do.
Things you have been told you can’t do.
Often are redundant with specified tasks.
• Research Paper Scenario:
– Must incorporate three interviews of faculty or other
professionals
– Must have topic and outline approved by Professor
– Can’t use same topic as previous prerequisite course.
Mission Analysis (Facts / Assumptions)
• Must be relevant to mission.
• Assumptions are used to fill-in information voids (must be
realistic)
– Don’t want to adopt a specific course of action based on faulty /
unrealistic assumptions.
– Must be stated up front to ensure all planners are planning based on
same approved assumptions
• Facts:
– My previous paper / topic was…..
– Library is not going to be available due to renovation from 1-3 Oct
– Have asked local business leader for assistance / interview, and he
seems receptive to idea, but wants to know more. Wants to
schedule an interview on 25 Sep (he’s out of town between now and
then). This individual is key and you can’t pursue topic without their
assistance.
• Assumptions:
– Local business leader will decide to assist me and give me access to
information. (If this assumption proves false, you may loose 4 weeks
of valuable time).
Mission Analysis (Recon Requirements)
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What information do I need to complete my plan?
How can I best get that information?
Who is best suited to get the information?
Scenario:
– You are assigned to a transportation unit that is responsible for
providing Military Support to Civilian Authorities in Alabama in
response to Hurricane Ivan.
– You are planning a long convoy movement that crosses
numerous bridges. You are told that numerous bridges may be
washed out due to extensive rain fall / flooding.
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Are bridges out?
If so, is a bypass available, how long will the not be available?
Once water recedes, what will be required to repair bridges?
Will bridges support loaded trucks (moving heavy equipment
and supplies)?
Mission Analysis (Time Analysis)
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VERY IMPORTANT STEP
Using school project scenario, now till 15 Dec sounds
like a long time, but consider the following:
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15 Dec: Paper due
10 Dec: final revisions complete
5-10 Dec: finals week
22-26 Nov: Thanksgiving
2 Dec: semester APFT
1 Dec: final draft complete
15 Nov: interviews completed
15 Nov: topic/outline adjustments incorporated
8 Nov: Expect approval from Professor
2-4 Nov: midterms for two classes
1 Nov: Topic / outline submitted for approval
21-25 Oct: fall break
15 Oct: draft topic / outline complete
7-8 Oct: Fall FTX
15 Oct: research complete
1-4 Oct: library renovation
25 Sept: topic determined
16 Sep: receive mission
Mission Analysis (Mission Statement)
• Your mission analysis results in a proposed mission
statement answering: who, what, when, where, and
why.
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Who: Cadet Gwosch
What: prepares 20 page research paper
When: due 15 Dec 04
Where: Clemson University
Why: capstone research project for MGT 463.
Part II
• Course of Action (COA) Development
• COA Analysis
• COA Comparison
COA Development
• Purpose: develop feasible, suitable,
distinguishable, and acceptable options that if
implemented will accomplish mission or resolve
problem.
• Upon completion of Mission Analysis Brief, Cdr
should issue guidance regarding COA
development:
– COAs he wants to consider.
– COAs he does not want to consider
– Knowing what you don’t want is just as valuable as
knowing what you want.
Features of COAs
• Each COA considered / developed must
be:
– Suitable (can accomplish mission)
– Feasible (within capabilities of unit)
– Acceptable (means justify the ends)
– Distinguishable (each COA must
distinguishable from others)
Steps to Develop COAs
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Analyze relative combat power
Generate options
Array initial forces
Develop scheme of maneuver
Assign Headquarters / task organization
Prepare COA statements / sketches
– No more than the concept sketches / brief you
do for projects.
COA Analysis
• Purpose: conduct a detailed analysis of
each COA. Will result in your ability to
compare each COA and will culminate with
the staff’s recommendation to the Cdr.
Steps to COA Analysis
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Gather the tools
List all friendly forces
List assumptions
List know critical events and decision points
Determine evaluation criteria
Select war-game method
Select method to record and display results
War-game battle and assess results.
COA Analysis (Gather Tools)
• Tools:
– Maps/pictures/terrain analysis products
– COA sketches
– Synchronization Matrices
– Event Templates
– Unit symbols (to move on map/sketch)
– Staff estimates
COA Analysis (List Friendly Forces)
• List all friendly forces:
– Current task organization including all units.
COA Analysis (List Assumptions)
• List assumptions:
– Review assumptions made during mission
analysis:
• Are they still valid / relevant?
• Do we need to make any additional assumptions?
• Do we have any new information that will validate
existing assumptions?
COA Analysis (Critical Events / DPs)
• List know critical events and decision points:
– Critical events: key actions you know or anticipate
will occur that warrant detailed analysis.
• Passage of Lines
• Entering a building
• Consolidation on a drop zone
– Decision Points: key actions you know or anticipate
that may require a significant decision.
• Enemy force of significant size located on drop zone.
• Unexpected enemy force blocking movement along planned
route (require alternate route)
COA Analysis (Eval. Criteria)
• Determine evaluation criteria:
– What criteria will you use to analyze and compare each COA.
– How will you quantify each criteria?
– Criteria typically include:
• Does COA facilitate flexibility?
– Once we reach a given point, do we have any options remaining?
• Does COA allow us to mass our combat power on objective area?
– How many squads / platoons can we mass on the objective /
engagement area?
• Does COA facilitate good Command / Control?
– How many / what types of units is each subordinate commander
responsible for?
• Simplicity?
– How simple / complex is our plan?
• Surprise?
– At what point can we realistically expect the enemy to realize what we
are doing?
COA Analysis (War Game Method)
• Select war-game method:
– Belt technique:
• Analyze all activities between PL Red and PL Blue.
+synchronizes all activities in a given area
-time consuming
– Box technique:
• Analyze all activities in a selected area (typically an engagement
area, objective area, obstacle breeching, etc.
+very detailed / focused
+great technique in time constrained environment (prioritize events to be
war-gamed).
-typically ignores other key events
– Avenues in depth:
• Analyze all activities from start to finish along a given axis.
+very detailed
-very time consuming
COA Analysis (Record / Display
Method)
• Two methods:
– Synchronization Matrix:
+Results in a planning tool that you need/can use
later
+More detailed synchronization of events
-More time consuming
– Sketch note method:
+Faster
-Less detail
-Requires synch matrix to be developed later.
COA Analysis (War-Game / Assess)
• War-game battle and assess results.
• Decide who moves first:
– Attacking force typically goes first.
• Fought like a chess game:
– I’m doing this ………….
– The enemy is reacting by ………….
– My counter-action is this…..
• Bn S2 typically fights the enemy:
– Must be realistic.
– Don’t wish the enemy away.
– “Hope is not a method”.
COA Comparison
• Review / grade each COA in relation to your evaluation criteria.
• Be as objective as possible.
COA 1
Mass Cbt.
Power
Flexibility
C2
Simplicity
Totals (less is
best)
COA 2
4 IN Plt on Obj.
2 Tow Plts / Arty / Attk Avn in over watch, Bn mortars
plt spts actions on Obj.
4 IN Plt on Obj.
1 Tow Plts / Attk Avn in over watch, Bn
mortars plt (-) spts actions on Obj.
1 pts
2 pts
Committed once we reach PL Blue (5 km from obj)
Retain flexibility to use alt axis until PL Red
(1.5 Km from obj)
2 pts.
1 pt
A Co.=4 IN plt+TOW Plt+Eng Sq, Asslt element (a
large company),
No major C2 problems anticipated
2 pts.
1 pts.
COA relies heavily on synchronization of direct /
indirect fires of DS units (arty / Attk helo)
Organic assets all in position to spt in the
event we experience problems with arty / attk
helos
2 pts.
1 pt
7 pts.
5 pts
Decision Brief
• Once COAs are developed and Wargamed and staff has completed their
recommendation, they then conduct a
decision brief to the commander.
Planning in Time Constrained Environment
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This is the norm.
Experience and practice will significantly reduce planning time.
More
Available Planning Time
Less
Less
Level of Cdr Involvement
More
Less
Detail in Cdr Guidance
More
More
Flex / Latitude of Staff
Less
More
#s of COA Developed
Fewer
More
Detailed Op Ord
Less
Questions???