The Impact of a Rapidly Changing Energy Economy in the U.S. on Electric Power Grid Modernization, and the Role of Advanced Grid Technologies for Future Energy Sustainability

University of Pittsburgh – Pitt Law Energy Law and Policy Institute The Rivers Club, Pittsburgh PA August 1, 2013

Gregory F. Reed, Ph.D.

Director, Electric Power Initiative Assoc. Director, Center for Energy Assoc. Professor, Electrical & Computer Engineering Swanson School of Engineering – University of Pittsburgh

Overview Three Main Themes:

1 - The Rapidly Changing Energy Resource Portfolio in the U.S. for Electricity Generation 2 - The Challenges Associated with Current Trends and Future Projections in Generation Mix and Location on Electric Power System Planning and Operations 3 - The Impact on the Critical Need for Modernization and Expansion of the Electric Power Delivery Infrastructure (i.e. the Power Grid) for Future Energy Sustainability

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U.S. Electricity Generation – Trends

2009 2010

2012 Coal: 37.4% Natural Gas: 30.4% Nuclear: 19% Hydroelectric: 6.7% Non-hydro Renewables: 5.4 % Fuel Oil: 0.6%

2011 Sources: U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook Reports 3

U.S. Electricity Generation – Projections

Source: 2013 US DOE EIA Early Release Projections 4

Challenges for the U.S. Power Grid

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Growing Constraints on Electrical Infrastructure

• Continued growth in overall electrical demand • Transmission congestion in key areas of the country • ‘Legacy’ century-old system and aging/antiquated AC equipment • De-commissioning of many ‘near-load’ generation (mainly fossil plants) • Rapidly changing electricity generation resource mix and plant locations • •

Increased Penetration of Renewable Generation

• Statewide renewable portfolio standards • Location of renewable supply vs. location of load centers • Integrating non-dispatchable/intermittent resources reliably

More Distributed Resources and DC loads

• High penetration of local generation (PV, etc.), within distribution networks • Energy storage technology developments and applications • Consumer and industrial loads are migrating toward DC systems: • Data center equipment -- e.g., switches, servers, UPS, etc.

• Home computers, lighting, TVs, internet routers, cell phones, etc.

• Electronic motor drives, industrial automation equipment, EVs, etc.

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U.S. Existing Power Plants Map

http://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2009/apr/electric-grid/gridmap.swf

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U.S. Renewable Energy Map

Resource Theoretical Potential Solar PV/CSP)

206,000 GW (PV) 11,100GW (CSP)

Wind

8,000 GW (onshore) 2,200 GW (offshore to 50 nm)

Geothermal

39 GW (conventional) 520 GW (EGS) 4 GW (co-produced)

Water Power

140 GW

Biopower

78 GW Source: US DOE National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) 7

North American Shale Gas Plays

Muskwa Montney Bakken Gammon Utica Cody Mowry McClure Monterey Green River/ Mancos/ Baxter Hermosa Lewis & Mancos Niobrara Pierre Palo Duro Caney/ Excello/ Mulky New Alba ny Woodford Neal/ Floyd Antri m Huro n Marcellus Chattanooga Conasauga Barnett & Woodford Barnet t Ford Pearsall Haynesville/ Bossier Frederick Brook Horton Bluff

Source: US DOE Since 2000, 32 ‘Plays’ – an 8-fold increase since 1980 8

U.S. Electrical Transmission – EHV/UHV

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U.S. Transmission and Power Plants

• Outside of the Northeast region, existing EHV and UHV transmission infrastructure is not as dense as other regions comparably • Many of the existing fossil based plants identified in the bottom figure will be retired in the next 20 years, resulting in var deficiencies and creating voltage and system instability, requiring more power electronics control (FACTS/DC) • The two maps together show that today, resources are aligned with transmission build-out (reflective of historical population and economic density) 10

Context of Renewable/Clean Energy

Statements on Increased Renewable Energy Penetration

• DOE National Electric Transmission Congestion Study:

“…there is transmission congestion at present, but ‘significant’ increases in congestion would result if large amounts of new generation resources were to be developed without simultaneous development of associated transmission capacity” (2006)

• DOE, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) joint Report:

“….transmission and integration into the U.S. electric system…” is one main hurdle to establishing wind power on the grid “….many challenges are inherent in building transmission systems to accommodate wind and solar energy. If electric loads keep growing, extensive new transmission will be required to connect new generation to loads. ….true regardless of the power sources that dominate, whether they are fossil fuels, wind, solar hydropower, etc.” (2008)

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National Transmission Needs for Wind Integration by 2030 (2009 ref.)

Source: 2009 National Electric Transmission Congestion Study (NETCS2009) 12

Power Electronics Technology Impact

Power Electronics Technologies Impact and Growth:

• U.S. Dept. of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery & Energy Reliability Report (March, 2010):

“Presently 30% of all electric power generated uses power electronics technologies somewhere between the point of generation and end-use. By 2030, 80% of all electric power will flow through power electronics”

• Reed, et.al. DOE NETL SGA Report (June, 2011):

“Advances in power electronics technologies and systems will be critical to improve electric power flow control, effectively integrate renewable and non-dispatched energy generation resources, implement energy storage solutions and distributed generation, and support an expanding market for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles”

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A New Era is Emerging in Power Systems

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Grid Technologies for the Future

• A need to expand and modernize the existing legacy infrastructure • Matching end-use requirements (more DC loads) with delivery technologies (hybrid AC / DC systems) and evolving generation (more DC supply) • Integrating ‘smart grid’ concepts for enhanced control, communications, protection, automation, and security •

The Role of Advanced Power Electronics Grid Technologies

• Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) • Improves the performance of existing AC systems and supports the deficiency of ‘var’ capacity lost from near-load plant decommissioning • High Voltage Direct Current Systems (HVDC) • Advantages over traditional AC solutions or certain applications (mainly for bulk transmission delivery) • Medium Voltage Direct Current Systems (MVDC) • Offers the potential to bridge the gap and develop better efficiencies between supply and demand 14

New Age War of the Currents: AC vs DC

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U.S. Transmission Investments

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History and Present Market Environment

• Under-investment in Transmission & Distribution from 1970’s thru 1999 • Reduced R&D and erosion of grid capacity/reliability margins • Increasing investment trend from 1999 through present Source: Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 16

Hybrid DC/AC Super Grid Concepts

HV DC/AC Super-Grid Concept for Efficient Integration of Energy Resources and Power Delivery

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HVDC Solutions

HVDC: High Voltage DC Transmission Systems:

• More power can be transmitted more efficiently over long distances by applying HVDC, and is less costly for underground installation • HVDC lines can carry 2 to 5 times the capacity of an AC line of similar voltage, over the same right of way • Interconnection of two AC systems, where AC lines would not be possible due to stability problems or both systems having different nominal frequencies • HVDC transmission is necessary for underwater power transfer if the cables are longer than 50km • Power flow can be controlled rapidly and accurately • Higher reliability and greater resiliency to disturbances • Offers a solution to a ‘national strategy’ for grid modernization 18

HVDC Solutions

DC Transmission and Back-to-Back Link Configurations

CONVERTER STATION THYRISTOR VALVE HALL

AC Network (A) Converter Station A DC Transmission Lines ~ or ~ BtB DC-Link Converter Station B AC Network (B)

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The Pittsburgh Region’s Role

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Opportunities

Collaboration of Policy/Law and Engineering/Technology

• Policymakers/Lawyers and Engineers/Technologists must be at the table ‘together’ to develop thoughtful and efficient solutions to the challenges ahead • A true understanding and appreciation by policymakers related to technology considerations on new policies and laws (and vice-versa) needs to be part of the dialogue • There is tremendous potential benefit for our region related to everything from resource extraction and utilization to technology development and manufacturing ... for the overall reliable, safe, economic, efficient, and sustainable supply and operation of electric power and energy systems • National leadership in economic development, job growth, ingenuity, and partnership • Exciting and dynamic futures for young Americans!

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Thank You

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