Transcript No Slide Title

Panel on
Technology and
Economic Development
•
European Foundation Centre
4 June 2002
•
ROBERT HORVITZ
[email protected]
Manager for Central &
Eastern Europe
GLOBAL INTERNET
POLICY INITIATIVE
(GIPI)
• What is the need for the development
of ICT infrastructure in developing
countries?
• What are the constraints to ICT
development?
• How can foundations and other donor
organisations overcome these
constraints and provide effective
assistance?
ELECTRICITY
LITERACY
INFORMATION
PURCHASING
POWER
SKILLS
SECTORAL OVERVIEW
• Telephony
• Internet
• Computing
THE GOOD NEWS (1)
• Telecom market liberalization is
proliferating and it works.
– rapid increase in teledensity, lower prices,
and better service
– important pressure for change from EU and
mobile phone companies
• Incumbent telecom operators fully or
partly privatized in 113 countries
“Encouragingly, the fastest growing
nations recently have been the least
developed countries (LDCs). They
surpassed the psychological threshold of
one telephone user per 100 inhabitants
during 2001. This is an unmistakable
sign that the digital divide is being
reduced, albeit at too slow a pace.”
---World Telecommunication Development
Report 2002: Reinventing Telecoms (ITU)
“TOP 10” IN TELEDENSITY
GROWTH, 1991-2001
Cambodia = *
Viet Nam = +4200%
China = +2967%
Philippines = +1240%
Botswana = +1026%
El Salvador = +908%
Morocco = +831%
Paraguay = +767%
Jamaica = +758%
Cape Verde = +717%
* Cambodia had zero teledensity in 1991
“BOTTOM 10” IN
TELEDENSITY GROWTH,
1991-2001
Liberia = -50%
Iraq = - 25%
Tajikistan = -20%
Angola = -12%
Armenia = -6%
Uzbekistan = 0%
Kyrgyzstan = +10%
North Korea = +21%
Comoros = +25%
Turkmenistan = +40%
THE GOOD NEWS (2)
• Wireless mobile telephony may solve
the problem of “universal access”
– Penetration not initially dependent on GDP!
• In 22 of 49 Least Developed Countries
(LDCs) there are more mobile than
fixed phone subscribers
PHONES: MOBILE NOW OVERTAKING
FIXED-LINES
Significant
economic
benefit:
Mobile phones
enable more
efficient &
productive use
of time
Data: ITU (2001)
COUNTRIES WITH MORE MOBILE
THAN FIXED-LINE SUBSCRIBERS
Map: ITU (2002)
THE GOOD NEWS (3)
• Internet gateways in 214 countries now
– access monopoly in only 14 countries
• The proportion of Internet users in
developing countries increased from 2%
to 23% of the total user population
during the past decade - even as the
total user population grew 11,477%!!
COUNTRIES WITH INTERNET HOSTS
250
191
200
200
211 214
165
150
121
81
100
60
43
50
8
0
1988
18
22
1990
34
Data: ITU, 2001
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
COUNTRIES WITH NO
INTERNET HOSTS CAN STILL
HAVE INTERNET USERS
• Djibouti (1,000)
• Equatorial Guinea
(600)
• Haiti (6,000)
• Iraq (12,500)
• North Korea (?)
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•
Data: Internet Software Consortium, NUA
Sudan (28,000)
Syria (32,000)
Zaire (?)
…and 7 remote island
nations: Maldives
(6,000), Reunion
(10,000), etc.
COUNTRIES WITH <0.1%
INTERNET PENETRATION
Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus,
Bhutan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burkina Faso,
Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo,
Equitorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana,
Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Laos, Lesotho, Liberia,
Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique,
Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, North Korea, PapuaNew Guinea, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia,
Sudan, Tanzania, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Uganda, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Zaire
Data: ITU (2001)
Net-users vs. Teledensity
Net-users as % of population
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
Teledensity
80.00
100.00
INTERNET USAGE MOST BELOW
“NORMAL” FOR THEIR TELEDENSITY
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Luxembourg (!)
St. Kitts & Nevis
Martinique
Guadeloupe
Guam
Barbados
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Virgin Islands
Greece
Cyprus
Bahamas
Ukraine
Granada
INTER-REGIONAL INTERNET BACKBONE
357 Mb/s
USA &
Canada
19,716 Mb/s
AsiaPacific
2,638
Mb/s
Latin
America &
Caribbean
Data: ITU (2001)
127
Mb/s
56,241 Mb/s
468
Mb/s
171
Mb/s
Arab
States,
Africa
Europe
IN ICTs GENERALLY...
• The gap between “Developed” and
“Emerging” countries is narrowing...
• But the gap between “Emerging” and
“Least Developed” countries is
widening…
• LDC progress is significant but spotty
THE BAD NEWS (1)
• 50-fold improvement in PC hardware
produced only a modest lowering of the
price of an entry-level machine.
– Improvement mostly absorbed by
operating system “bloat”
• Near-future Internet growth could be
limited by PC penetration
WILL THE SLOWER GROWTH IN PC
OWNERSHIP LIMIT INTERNET GROWTH?
700
600
PCs
Internet users
400
300
200
100
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
Millions
500
THE GOOD NEWS (4)
WHAT TO SUPPORT?
• Academic networks and computers in
schools
• PC networks for parliamentarians and
their staff
• Training (especially for civil servants,
teachers and judges)
WHAT TO SUPPORT?
• Creation and maintainance of locally
relevant content
• Open-source software for public
administration
• Program-related investment in
international connectivity
WHAT TO SUPPORT?
• Trade associations for Internet cafes
and ISPs
• Online freedom of expression and
Internet users’ privacy rights
• Legal treatment of the Internet as
speech, rather than as broadcasting
“To build sustainable networks,
you've got to have local hands
cultivating local expertise.”
---Steve Huter
Network Startup Resource Center
http://www.nsrc.org/
ROBERT HORVITZ
[email protected]
http://www.internetpolicy.net/
Global Internet Policy
Initiative (GIPI)
• Founded December 2000
– Partnership between Internews and
the Center for Democracy and
Technology
• Administrative Center in Paris, France
• Policy Center in Washington, DC
GIPI offices in:
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Bulgaria
Georgia
India
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
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Kyrgyz Republic
Nigeria
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Tajikistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
GIPI offices soon in:
• Bosnia-Herzegovina
• Vietnam
• anywhere else that the development of
the Internet is hindered by public
policies.
How GIPI works (1)
• Hire qualified local people - usually a
lawyer, activist or ISP.
• Give them backup and support from
Internet policy experts in other
countries, plus access to shared
resources within GIPI.
How GIPI Works (2)
• Identify the main local problems in
Internet development, possible
solutions and opportunities for reform.
• Join or create working groups with key
stakeholders (businesses, service
providers, government officials & NGOs)
to develop consensus for policy
changes.
ROBERT HORVITZ
[email protected]
http://www.internetpolicy.net/