Transcript Lysbilde 1 - Norges Bank

Summary
Chart 1 Banks'1) pre-tax operating profit/loss on
ordinary activities as a percentage of average total
assets (ATA)2)
1)
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
1994
0.0
1996
1998
2000
Parent bank, excluding foreign branches
figures. Annualised
2) Quarterly
Source: Norges Bank
2002
2004
Chart 2 Household borrowing rate after tax deflated
by consumer price inflation1) and inflation
expectations. Per cent
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
1987
Deflated by consumer
price inflation
Deflated by inflation
expectations
1991
1995
1999
1) CPI
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
2003
excluding energy products until 1995, Norges Bank's calculations
for CPI adjusted for taxes changes and excluding energy products until
2000 Q2, after that CPI-ATE
2) Set equal to the inflation target of 2.5 per cent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3 Credit to mainland non-financial
enterprises. 12-month growth. Per cent
15
15
Households
10
10
5
5
0
Non-financial enterprises
-5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Norges Bank
0
-5
Chart 4 Bankruptcies. Seasonally adjusted figures
Index. 1998 Q4 = 100
350
350
Turnover 1)
300
300
250
200
250
Number employed1)
200
150
150
100
Number of bankruptcies
50
0
1998
100
50
0
1999 2000
2001 2002
2003
1)Turnover
and employment in last normal operating year for
bankrupt entities
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 5 Prices for commercial properties.
Index, 2000 = 100
150
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
1996
50
1998
Source: Statistics Norway
2000
2002
2004
Chart 6 Bank lending to households and enterprises.1)
Per cent of gross lending to households, municipalities
and non-financial enterprises
70
70
Households
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
Enterprises
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1)
Excluding branches of foreign banks. Monthly figures
Source: Norges Bank
Chapter 1
Chart 1.1 Average growth1) in credit to households
and non-financial enterprises. Per cent
16
16
14
14
12
12
Households
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
2
0
1997
4
Non-financial
enterprises
1998
1999
2000
2001
2
2002
0
2003
1) Non-weighted
average of data for Germany, Australia, the
Netherlands, the UK, the US, Sweden and Denmark. Annual growth
in loans and other securities from domestic and foreign sources
Sources: OECD, national statistics offices and central
banks, Norges Bank
Chart 1.2 Average GDP growth1), and banks' loan
losses1) as a percentage of total assets
1.0
0.8
5
Loan losses (left-hand
scale)
Real GDP growth
(right-hand scale)
4
0.6
3
0.4
2
0.2
1
0.0
1988
1992
1996
2000
0
2004
1) Non-weighted
average of data for Germany, France, the UK, Italy,
Spain, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and
Switzerland. OECD's forecasts for 2004
2) Selection of the largest banks. The figures for Norway cover all banks
Sources: Bankscope, OECD, Statistics Norway and Norges
Bank
Chart 1.3 Outstanding mortgages as a percentage
of GDP
Australia
UK
Japan
Netherlands
Spain
2003
Germany
1990
US
1980
Mainl. Norway
0
20
40
Sources: IMF and Norges Bank
60
80
100
120
Chart 1.4 Contract volume in the futures markets for
oil and gas.1) In millions of contracts
2.0
2.0
1.6
Total number of
active contracts
1.2
0.8
1.6
1.2
Banks' short
positions
Banks' long positions
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
Oct 00 Apr 01 Oct 01 Apr 02 Oct 02 Apr 03 Oct 03 Apr 04 Oct 04
1) Selected
US stock exchanges. First Tuesday in April and
October
Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Chart 1.5 International equity indices.
Indexed, 01.01.03 = 100
200
200
Norway
OBX
180
160
Japan, Topix
180
160
140
140
120
120
100
Europe, Stoxx
80
Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03
Source: EcoWin
US, S&P 500
100
80
Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04
Chart 1.6 The ratio between share price and
expected earnings1) (P/E) for listed companies.
Monthly figures and 10-year average
30
30
25
25
US
20
20
15
15
10
10
Norway
5
5
0
1994
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
1) Based
2004
on earnings estimates one year ahead for
companies in the S&P 500 index and most companies on the
Oslo Stock Exchange
Sources: EcoWin and I/B/E/S Datastream
Chart 1.7 Yield on 10-year government bonds.
Per cent
8
7
8
US
Norway
7
UK
6
6
5
5
4
4
Germany
3
2000
2001
Source: EcoWin
2002
2003
2004
3
Chart 1.8 Sub-indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange
Indexed, 01.01.03 = 100
225
200
225
Benchmark index
(OSEBX)
ICT1)
200
175
175
150
150
125
100
Energy
Manufacturing
Banks
75
Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04
1)
Weighted average of the telecom index and the IT index
Source: EcoWin
125
100
75
Chart 1.9 Implied volatility on the Oslo Stock
exchange based on the OBX index. Per cent
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04
Source: Oslo Stock Exchange
Chart 1.10 Default probabilities for Norwegian
banks.1) Per cent
3
3
75 percentile
2
2
25 percentile
1
0
2000
1) Probability
1
Median
0
2001
2002
of default within 3 years
Source: Moody's KMV
2003
2004
Chart 1.11 Oil prices, energy index and the overall
market excluding oil companies. Norway and
globally. Indexed, 01.01.03 = 100
250
200
250
Norway energy
Global energy
150
150
100
Oil price
50
250
100
50
250
Norway excl. oil
200
200
150
150
Global excl. oil
100
50
Jan 03
200
100
50
May 03
Sep 03
Jan 04
Sources: Datastream and EcoWin
May 04
Sep 04
Chapter 2
Chart 2.1 Consumer confidence indicator.1)
Unadjusted figures
45
30
45
Personal financial
situation
30
15
15
0
0
-15
Total2)
Norwegian
economy
-30
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1) Indicates
-15
-30
the share with a positive assessment of the current
situation and outlook for the future less the share with a negative
assessment
2) Includes expectations of major procurements
Source: TNS Gallup
Chart 2.2 Business climate index.
Seasonally adjusted diffusion index1)
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
1999
-10
2000
2001
1) A value
2002
2003
2004
of less than 0 implies that the majority of industrial
leaders expect a weaker outlook in the next quarter
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 2.3 Household financial assets1) and housing
wealth2) as a percentage of debt
180
180
Housing wealth/debt
160
160
140
140
Financial assets/debt
120
100
80
1987
120
100
80
1990
1993
1) Break
1996
1999
2002
in the statistics for 1995 Q4
2) Projections for housing wealth for 2004 Q1 and Q2
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.4 Household net investment in financial
assets (net lending) and net investment in fixed
assets as a percentage of disposable income
10
Net financial investment (NB)
9
Net fixed investment (SN)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041)
1) Projections
for 2004 based on figures for 2004 Q1 and Q2
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Chart 2.5 House prices and rental prices. 4-quarter
growth. Per cent
25
25
20
20
House prices
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-10
-15
1991
-5
Rental
price
-10
-15
1994
1997
2000
2003
Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents
(NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms (EF),
Finn.no, Norges Bank and Statistics Norway
Chart 2.6 Gross financial capital as a percentage
of household debt (financial reserves) by after-tax
income decile
160
120
160
Decile 10
120
Decile 1-6
80
80
40
0
1987
1)
40
Decile 7-9
1990
1993
1996
1999
Excluding insurance claims
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2002
Chart 2.7 Gross financial capital1) as a percentage
of debt (financial reserves) by socioeconomic status
and after-tax income. 2002
150
150
Employees
All households
100
100
50
50
0
0
Decile 1-6
1)
Decile 7-9
Decile 10
Excluding insurance claims
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Total
Chart 2.8 Debt as a percentage of disposable
income (debt burden) by socioeconomic status and
after-tax income. 2002
250
200
Employees
250
All households
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Decile 1-6 Decile 7-9 Decile 10
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Total
Chart 2.9 Household debt burden1)
200
200
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
1987
Debt burden
100
1991
1995
1) Loan
1999
2003
2007
debt as a percentage of disposable income less the return
on insurance claims (liquidi disposable income)
Sources: Norges Bank
Chart 2.10 Household interest burden1) and
household borrowing rate after tax
12
12
10
10
Interest burden
8
8
6
4
2
0
1987
6
4
Borrowing rate
after tax
2
0
1991
1995
1999
2003
Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of liquid
disposable income plus interest expenses
1)
Source: Norges Bank
2007
Chart 2.11 Key figures for the enterprise sector.1)
Annual figures. Per cent
100
80
60
Equity ratio
(left-hand scale)
Interest on
debt2)
20
Pre-tax return on equity
16
Return on total
assets
12
40
8
20
4
0
0
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Limited companies excluding enterprises in the oil and gas
industry, financial industry and the public sector
2) Interest on debt calculated as the ratio between interest
expense and total debt
1)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.12 Enterprise debt and equity financing.
Holdings. In billions of NOK
1,200
1,200
Long-term debt
1,000
800
1,000
Current
liabilities
600
400
200
800
600
400
Paid-in capital
Retained
earnings
200
0
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1) Non-financial
enterprises except public sector
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.13 Enterprise1) net investment in capital
assets and supply of new internal capital from
operations. Percentage of mainland GDP
40
30
40
Net investment
in capital assets
30
Of which in fixed assets and
intangible assets
20
20
10
10
New internal capital
0
0
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
1) Non-financial
enterprises except enterprises in the oil
and gas industry and the public sector
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.14 Debt and interest burden in non-financial
enterprises.1) Per cent
80
800
2)
70
Debt burden
(right-hand scale)
700
60
600
50
500
40
400
30
20
Interest burden3)
(left-hand scale)
10
0
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
1) Except
enterprises in the oil and gas industry and shipping
Debt as a percentage of cash surplus
3) Interest expense as a percentage of cash surplus + interest
expense
2)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
300
200
100
0
Chart 2.15 Debt burden in selected industries. Per
cent of cash surplus
600
500
Commercial
services
Property management
(right-hand scale)
1,600
1,200
400
300
Wholesale and
retail trade
200
Manufacturing1
)
100
800
400
0
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2)
Excluding shipbuilding and mining
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.16 Turnover of bankrupt enterprises, total
(left-hand scale) and for selected industries (righthand scale). Annual figures. In billions of NOK
25
20
6
Total
15
10
Wholesale and
retail trade
5
Manufacturing
Property
management2)
4
3
Construction
2
5
1
0
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1) Annualised
2004
1)
figures based on seasonally adjusted figures for
the first three quarters of the year
2) Property management, commercial services and rental
activities
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 2.17 Predicted bankruptcy probabilities1) for
non-financial enterprises.2) Per cent
6
6
5
5
80 percentile
4
4
3
3
2
2
Median enterprise
1
1
0
0
3)
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
1) Probability
of bankruptcy within 3 years
enterprises in the oil and gas industry and public sector
3) The level of bankruptcy probabilities in 2003 has been adjusted
for unavailable accounts
2) Except
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.18 Risk-weighted debt1) in per cent of
bank debt in selected industries and total
2.0
2.0
Wholesale and retail trade
1.5
Manufacturing3)
Commercial
services
1.0
1.5
1.0
Property management
0.5
0.5
Total2)
0.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.0
4)
2003
Risk-weighted debt = probability of bankruptcy multiplied by
bank debt
2) Non-financial enterprises except enterprises in the oil and gas
industry and the public sector
3) Excluding shipbuilding and mining
4) The level in 2003 has been adjusted for unavailable accounts
1)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.19 Rentals for office premises in large
Norwegian cities. Index. 2nd half 1999 = 100
150
150
Stavanger,
centrally located
125
Bergen
100
125
100
Trondheim
Central Oslo,
high standard
75
50
1999
75
50
2000
2001
Source: Dagens Næringsliv
2002
2003
Chapter 3
Chart 3.1 Banks'1) profit/loss. Percentage of
average total assets
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003 2004
Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3
Net interest income
Operating costs
Write-down
Other operating income
Loan losses
Pre-tax profit/loss
Excluding branches of Norwegian banks abroad. Including
branches of foreign banks in Norway
1)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.2 Banks' holdings of gross non-performing
loans to households and enterprises.
Percentage of gross lending to municipalities, the
non-financial sector and households
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
Enterprises
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
1999
0.5
Households
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Excluding branches of Norwegian banks abroad. Including
branches of foreign banks in Norway
1)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.3 Development in banks' lending rates and
Norges Bank's sight deposit rate. Per cent
10
10
Non-financial private
corporations
Households
8
6
4
2
NB's sight
deposit rate
New mortgage-backed loans
(80% loan to asset value ratio)
0
8
6
4
2
0
Sep 02 Dec 02 Mar 03 Jun 03 Sep 03 Dec 03 Mar 04 Jun 04 Sep 04
Sources: Norges Bank and Cicero
Chart 3.4 Banks'1) losses on loans 2) to different
sectors. Percentage of total lending
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
Non-financial enterprises
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
Households
Others3)
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
4)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1) Norwegian
commercial and savings banks and branches of foreign
banks in Norway
2) Recorded losses excl. changes in unspecified loss provisions
3) Financial institutions, central government and national insurance
administration, municipal sector and foreign
4) At 30 September. Estimate
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.5 Banks' securities holdings current assets
by item. Percentage of total assets
12
10
Bonds (foreign currency)
Bonds (NOK)
Equities etc.
Short-term paper
12
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
1999
0
1)
2000
2001
2002
Excluding branches of foreign banks
Source: Norges Bank
2003
2004
Chart 3.6 Banks' financial assets and liabilities by
residual maturity.1) September 2004. Percentage of
total assets
50
50
30
30
10
10
-10
-10
-30
Assets
Customer deposits
Liabilities excl. customer deposits
-50
-70
-30
-50
-70
< 1 mo. 1-3 mos 3-12 mos 1-5 yrs
> 5 yrs
Excluding branches of foreign banks. Some assets
(equities/units and real capital etc.) and liabilities (equity capital
etc.) which do not have a maturity are excluded
1)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.7 Liquidity at the start of the day and
turnover in NBO. Average. In billions of NOK (lefthand scale) and as a ratio (right-hand scale)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
5
Turnover NBO
Disposable liquidity NBO
Turnover/liquidity
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2001
Source: Norges Bank
2002
2003
2004
Q1-Q3
Chart 3.8 Average use of borrowing facility through
the day. 2-13 August 2004. In billions of NOK
16
14
Average + one
standard deviation
12
10
8
6
4
Average
2
0
05:00 07:00 09:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00
Source: Norges Bank
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Chart 3.9 Developments in banks' liquidity indicator
130
130
Other commercial
banks
120
110
120
DnB NOR2)
110
100
100
90
90
80
70
1999
Other savings banks
Nordea3)
and Fokus Bank
80
70
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Excluding branches of foreign banks
Postbanken and Nordlandsbanken included
3) The increase in 2003 Q4 is due to changes in Nordea's
accounts reporting. The indicator for Nordea is more comparable
with that of other banks after the change
1)
2)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.10 Banks'1) short-term foreign debt.2) Per
cent of gross lending
30
25
20
30
Nordea and
Fokus Bank
25
DnB NOR3)
20
15
15
10
5
0
1999
10
Other commercial banks
5
Other savings banks
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Excluding branches of foreign banks
Deposits and loans from other financial institutions and notes
and short-term paper
3) Postbanken and Nordlandsbanken included
1)
2)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.11 Mortgage companies' profit/loss.
Percentage of average total assets
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
0
0
-0.3
-0.3
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003 2004
Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3
Net interest income
Other operating income
Operating costs
Loan losses
Write-down
Pre-tax profit/loss
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.12 Finance companies' profit/loss.
Percentage of average total assets
9
9
6
6
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
-6
-6
1999
2000
2001
Net interest income
Operating costs
Write-down
Source: Norges Bank
2002
2003
2003 2004
Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3
Other operating income
Loan losses
Pre-tax profit/loss
Chart 3.13 Insurance companies' results (annualised
percentages). Percentage of average total assets
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1st half 2nd half
2003 2004
Premium income
Net income from fin. assets
Compensation
Change in insurance allocations
Res. before alloc. to cust. and tax
Value-adj. res. before alloc. to cust. and tax
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.14 Nordic financial groups' results before tax.
Q1-Q3 2004. Percentage of average total assets (ATA)
SHB
(Tot..res. 0.75%)
(0.52%)
Danske Bank
Nordea Bank
(0.74%)
FöreningsSp.bk
(0.91%)
SEB
(0.50%)
DnB NOR
(0.94%)
-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Bank
1)
Market
2)
Pension/Ins.
Other
Market activities/Asset management. Incl. Earnings from investment
portfolios for Danske Bank
2) Incl. Asset management for FöreningsSparbanken
1)
Source: Financial groups' quarterly reports
Boxes
Derivatives markets are
expanding
Chart 1 Daily turnover in the Norwegian forward
exchange market1) by counterparty. In billions of
USD
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
1995
1998
Norwegian financial institutions
Non-financial customers
1) Covers
2001
2004
Foreign financial institutions
outright forwards and foreign exchange swaps
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2 Daily turnover in the Norwegian interest
rate derivatives market1) by counterparty. In
billions of NOK
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1995
1998
Norwegian financial institutions
Non-financial customers
1) Covers
2001
2004
Foreign financial institutions
FRAs, interest rate swap agreements and interest
rate options
Source: Norges Bank
Use of a central counterparty in
the settlement of financial
instruments
Without central counterparty
Firm A
Firm C
Firm B
Firm D
With central counterparty
Firm A
Firm C
CCP
Firm B
Firm D
Is there a connection between
house prices and banking crises?
Chart 1 The house price gap. 1831-2003
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1990
1970
-30
-40
1950
-30
-40
1930
0
-10
-20
1910
0
-10
-20
1890
20
10
1870
20
10
1850
40
30
1830
40
30
Relationship between the results
of companies listed on the Oslo
Stock Exchange and of the
Norwegian enterprise sector as a
whole
Chart 1 Shares of total operating income in 2002,
by industry. Per cent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Oil and gas
Wholesale and
retail trade and
services
Manufacturing
Financial
Other
Listed companies1)
1) Operating
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
All limited companies
income from the groups Norsk Hydro and Aker Kværner
is distributed by industry in accordance with the companies' annual
reports. Other groups are classified according to the industry code
of the parent company
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2 Pre-tax1) return on equity in Norwegian
companies2) 1992-2004. Per cent
30
30
Quarterly reports of listed companies3)
25
20
20
All limited companies
15
10
15
10
Listed companies
5
0
1992
25
5
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
1) Key
0
2004
figures for 2003 have not been adjusted for accounts that are
not yet available
2) All Norwegian limited companies except banks, insurance and
Statoil
3) Based on quarterly figures from Statistics Norway, where 2004 is
estimated on the basis of the weighted average of Q1 and Q2
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
How do enterprises hedge
against exchange rate
fluctuations?
Chart 1 Types of currency hedging. Share of all
enterprises with currency exposure. Per cent
No currency hedging
9%
One or more types of currency hedging
91 %
- Use foreign currency derivatives
61 %
- Purchase factor inputs in productinvoicing currency
- Borrow or invest capital in foreign
currency
- Invoice foreign customers partly or
entirely in NOK
- Have moved or plan to move some
operations abroad
43 %
43 %
31 %
9%
3%
- Other
0
Source: Norges Bank
20
40
60
80
100
Share of income in foreign currency
Chart 2 Income and costs in foreign currency. Share
of all enterprises with currency exposure. Per cent
75 100 %
50 75 %
Approximately the same
share of income and
costs in foreign currency
25 50 %
125 %
0%
0%
125 - 50 - 75 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 %
Share of costs in foreign currency
Share of all enterprises with
currency exposure
1-2 %
Source: Norges Bank
6-8 %
11-14 % > 20 %
Chart 3 Use of derivatives by various enterprise
categories. Share of all enterprises with currency
exposure in each category that use derivatives.
Per cent
100
80
60
100
Net foreign
Other
currency income
Net
foreign
currency
costs
Large
Mediumsized
80
60
Small
40
40
20
20
0
0
Enterprises distributed
by net exposure 1)
1) Enterprises
Enterprises distributed
by size
with net foreign currency income have a larger share
of income than costs in foreign currency. Enterprises with net
foreign currency costs have a larger share of costs than income in
foreign currency. Other enterprises have approximately equal
shares of income and costs in foreign currency
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 4 Share of all derivatives users that
use derivatives with various maturities.
Per cent
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
0-3 mo. 3-6 mo. 6-12 mo.
Source: Norges Bank
1-3
years
Over 3
years
Risk associated with loans to
small enterprises
and the new capital adequacy
framework
Chart 1 The structure of the new capital adequacy regulations
Credit rated
Debt > € 1m
Standardised
approach
Debt < € 1m
Large
enterprises
SMEs
Retail
portfolio
Internal ratingsbased approach
Not credit rated
Risk weight:
20%-150%
100%
75%
Can incl. SMEs with
debt < € 1m
Retail
formulae
Income > € 50m
Corporate
portfolio
Large
enterprises
SMEs
Income < € 50m
Corp. formula
without discount
Corp. formula
with discount
Chart 2 Bankruptcy probability for SMEs and large
enterprises. Average. Per cent
7
7
6
6
5
SME1)
5
4
4
3
3
2
1
Large2)
Large3)
2
1
0
0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
SMEs with total bank debt of under EUR 1m and total income of
under EUR 50m (the 2 groups have approximately the same average)
2) Enterprises with total bank debt of over EUR 1m
3) Enterprises with total income of over EUR 50m
1)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3 Bankruptcy probability in selected
industries. SMEs.1) Average. Per cent
8
7
6
5
Industries:
4
Travel
3
Wholesale and retail trade
Shipbuilding
2
Construction
Manufacturing (excl. shipbuilding)
1
Commercial services
0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
1) Non-financial
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
limited companies with total bank debt of less than
EUR 1m. The total number of enterprises in 2003 is 44 908. The
shipbuilding industry has the lowest number of enterprises, at 197
Source: Norges Bank