Transcript KMA Project Meeting

Evaluating the Effectiveness
of
Warning Systems
IWTC-6, Costa Rica
Woo-Jin Lee
Korea Meteorological Administration
Working group 5.1
Mr. Peter J. Bowyer (Canadian Hurricane Centre)
Mr. Wenjie Dong (China Meteorological Administration)
Mr. Charles Guard (US National Weather Service)
Mr. Edwin S.T. Lai (Hong Kong Observatory)
Mr. Woo-Jin Lee (Korea Meteorological Administration)
Mr. Nobutaka Mannoji (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Mr. M Alimullah Miyan (SADMC, Bangladesh)
Ms. Rosa Perez (PAGASA, Philippines)
Mr. T. Prasad (Office Of ADGM, India)
Mr. Alan Sharp (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)
Mr. J. Weyman (US National Weather Service)
Rapporteur
Background(1)
Total warning systems were discussed at IWTC-5
(2002)
• Forecast accuracy and reliability; encouraging
special effort on landfalling TCs
• Warning dissemination and presentation;
• Warning response, public education, disaster
management;
• Internation and regional cooperation.
Background(2)
WMO Expert Meeting on Effective Early Warnings of
Tropical Cyclones (Kobe, 17- 18 Jan. 2005)
• Improved accuracy and quantification of
uncertainty;
• Adequate resources for disaster mitigation;
• Qualified personnel;
• Sufficient attention to non-structural (public awareness,
information sharing, etc.) mitigation measures;
• Adequate institutional and infrastructure practices for
coordination and capacity-building at national, regional and
international levels;
• Adequacy of a national disaster management policy;
• Community consciousness.
Forecasting Techniques(1)
• Model guidance on intensity need to be improved
• Structure analysis for weak TCs to be harmonized
among neighbouring countries.
• Analysis of ET varies from center to center
• Much to be learned for the interaction of TC with
other circulation systems such as monsoon,
topography, mid-latitude troughs
• Application of consensus (and/or EPS) yet
challenging from case to case
• Nowcasting tools to be improved for landfalling
cyclones
Forecasting Techniques(2)
• Continuity and consistency is no less important
attribute for operational center
Availability of dynamical and statistical tools/ model products,
and familiarity of the forecasters on those products
Verification to be extended to consider the continuity among
different centers, initial conditions (incl. bogusing), times
periods
Predictability of track and intensity for 6-12 hours range
before landfalling have to be evaluated
Communication channels have to be maintained among
forecasters at neighboring countries to exchange views on
formation and transition stage in particular
Warning Presentation(1)
Actions to take to protect → DISASTER SCALES
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
• Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale(STiCKs)
Extended use at Southwest Pacific and south east Indian ocean
Weakness with storm surge values
• Australian scale
5 categories covering weak storms and severe TCs based on max. gust
wind (3sec)
• Philippines scale
Boundary issue
Interaction with monsoons and slow moving depression
• Bangladesh
Numbering of signal confusing
Maritime bias
Separate warnings may be used for heavy rain, strong wind, storm surges,
etc.
THE SCALE
From slide of Mr. C. Guard
TYPHOON CATEGORIES
TYPHOON CATEGORY 1: MINIMAL TYPHOON.
Max Sfc Wind
74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Peak Gusts
95-120 mph (82-105 kt)
TYPHOON CATEGORY 2: MODERATE TYPHOON.
Max Sfc Wind
96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Peak Gusts
121-139 mph (106-120 kt)
TYPHOON CATEGORY 3: STRONG TYPHOON.
Max Sfc Wind
111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Peak Gusts
140-167 mph (121-144 kt)
TYPHOON CATEGORY 4: DEVASTATING TYPHOON.
Max Sfc Wind
131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Peak Gusts
168-197 mph (145-170 kt)
TYPHOON CATEGORY 5: CATASTROPHIC TYPHOON.
Max Sfc Wind
156-194 mph (136-170 kt)
Peak Gusts
198-246 mph (171-216 kt).
Warning Presentation(2)
• Heavy rain
Orographically induced rainfall before landfall
Interaction with other circulation systems (convergence
line, upper level troughs, etc.)
• Strong wind,
Asymmetry under ET
• High waves
Swells in front of moving storm
• Uncertainties and probabilistic information
Position error and gust wind
Conduct a survey on existing disaster scales
Understand the needs and interest of users
Extend probabilistic expressions on other TC
parameters
Typhoon Nida
13 to 22 May 2004
Source: RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center
Warning Dissemination(1)
Multiple and diverse approaches
• Internet is limited to access warnings
• Satellite communication efficient,
Robust in adverse weather conditions
Customized warnings to activate loud sirens
RANET(RAdio interNET) digital satellite radio broadcast
• New media,
Mobile phones
Digital multimedia broadcasting (DMB), internet portal sites
Cable TVs
• Other issues
Door to door notification is most effective (volunteers in
Bangladesh)
Commercial sector could play some role
Tourists be accessible
Warning Dissemination(2)
Disseminate warnings through multiple and diverse
channels with varieties of high and low technology
with backup capabilities to facilitate users to
respond to the warnings in a timely manner
Public Awareness(1)
• Storm surge
Various mixture of tide, surge, wave runup
• Specific details
Rain? Wind? Waves?
• Parameters
Position and radius of influence
Probabilistic circles and intensity
• Uncertainty of track and intensity forecasts
Position fix
Track errors particularly under landfalling (sensitivity on
approaching angles to the coast line)
• Structure or process dependency
TD, TC, ET? Catrina case……
Public Awareness(2)
• Various source of information available
Internet access to various centers on position, track,
structures (formation, weakening to tropical depression,
ET)
• Public confused
Particularly when storm pass between neighbouring
countries of surrounding oceans
Often over warning to reduce risk in case of forecast
failure
• Media interest and criticism
Reasons behind the discrepancy in case of severe
conditions
Conduct research to find out what people understand
and not understand
Public Awareness(3)
Accuracy and timeliness is not sufficient – false
alarms, rare occurrence, “It won’t happen here”
• Physical vulnerability at locality counts
• Curriculum of primary and secondary school
Guam, 45 hours of instruction
• Outreach program
Large investment for small audience (Guam)
• Community based approach (Philippines)
• Year round activities, campaigns
Cooperation required among decision makers,
emergency managers, media, stakeholders at
community level
Int’l Cooperation
The resource and information is limited in the
developing countries for the warning service
• satellite data (some access through Internet only)
• rain gauge obs station
• EPS products and high resolution model output
Regional Cooperation in application of model output
and other forecasting guidance, and enhancement
of communication capabilities
Summary
Statistical and dynamical guidance need to be
improved particularly for landfalling TCs, weak
TCs, for unusual track behaviors, and for ET
cyclones
Increased investment is required in public awareness
to reap the full benefit of significant progress made
in TC forecasting through very large investment of
fund and dedicated efforts of scientists on a
worldwide scale
International cooperation need to be strengthened to
share the information and analysis tools among the
research/ operational centers
Thank You