Transcript Slide 1

Renewable Energy
in North America
Renewable Energy Development
and Transborder Exchange
April 2011
Rick Van Schoik
Director, NACTS
AGENDA
Who we are: NACTS, BRP, SCERP
Energy: Worldwide, MX, US
Why Renewable Energy (RE)
Why the exchange in borderlands
Why states have a role
Status and opportunities
Obstacles and roadmap
NACTS
Consortium of US, Canadian and
Mexican universities: Promote concept
of North America, Prosperity and
Competitiveness, Borders and Security,
Environmental Commons/Future
ASU RENEWABLE ENERGY
Largest solar test facility in the U.S.
Light Works top research in world
Several algae fuel projects
Next generation energy research
Massive investment in powering
campus with wind, solar, etc. as we
move to become carbon-neutral
PARTNERS
Border Research Partnership
Waste Tires
Human Trafficking
Southwest Consortium for
Environmental Research and Policy
BIG PICTURE:
CONNECTIONS
Energy Is:
Quality of life
Water supply and quality
Economic development
Pollution and health impacts
Greenhouse gases and climate
Local, regional, and gobal
ENERGY
Energy is NOT indigenous to all parts
of the border (Coal, oil and gas in east)
Generation and sources are connected:
Electricity (power lines)
Natural Gas (pipelines)
Petroleum (pipelines)
Siting of LNG plants
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Reduced health-impacting air pollutants
Contained water pollution
Greenhouse climate shifting gases
Wild land defense
ENERGY SECURITY
Inter- not In-dependent
Local not global
Diversity of sources
Renewable (free)
Overall renewable sources promise
security and sustainability
Mexico and RE
What’s in it for
Mexico apart from
exporting
electricity to US?
• Widespread ignorance
about Mexico’s RE
potential
• There is no ideological
problem with trading
electricity to the US
• There must be the
belief that local
communities win too
Jobs, investment,
etc
Can RE green the
north?
• Employment – jobs,
wages, skills
• Investment &
profitability: CFE &
private firms
• Knowledge spillovers
• Social participation
and benefits
• RE must be part of
energy matrix
• US states’ RPS will be
driver
• Role for NADBank
• Methane as an
important component
Multiple gains from RE at the
border
Economic benefits
• Direct creation of
temporary and permanent
jobs
• Indirect creation of
temporary and permanent
jobs – services sectors.
• Local and state
government energy
savings through selfsupply projects– benefits
passed on to tax payer
• Electricity subsidies for
local inhabitants.
• Electricity supply to off
grid communities
• Infrastructure investment
(roads, water, etc)
Knowledge spillover and
development of human
capital
• Knowledge and
information networks that
permeate through
multiple social spheres
• Specialization in institutes
of higher education.
• Creation of research and
training centers.
• Increased interaction
between government,
business and civil society.
Social participation
• Communication between
government, business
and local populations.
• Make sure local
community becomes
stakeholder
• Acceptance of projects as
driver of local
development
• Lessons from Oaxaca
Wind energy employment
6 jobs per
MW of
turbine
production
100-450
jobs/yr/TWh
installed
For every job created in
manufacturing installation
and operation of wind
energy, at least one more
created in research,
financing, consulting
services.
Texas example: 10,000
jobs from wind
STATE OF ENERGY TODAY
Peak oil or peak cheap oil or peak
clean oil
Petro-dictators in MENA
Climate change/greenhouse gases
Watergy, foodergy,
Uneven binational relations
ALTERNATIVES
Threat from Fukushima seen as
“indefinite’ with further damage
“probable” and costs possibly into the
trillions
The same week the renewable energy
index hit RENIIX an all time high
STATE OF UNION
Clean energy standard: 80% by 2035
(Implies supply from friendly sources)
President Obama
January 2011
BACKDROP
In my own view 2010 was probably the
greatest year of pain in terms of oil and
gas development…all across the world.
Interior Secretary Salazar
Mexico City, April 4, 2011
CONGRESS
“The nation is going to need 40 to 50%
more electricity before the end of the
decade. We’re not prepared. We need
a long-term energy plan.”
Congressman Fred Upton
Chair, Energy & Commerce
NUMBERS
Oil over $110 per barrel
Arizona will need:
1 quadrillion BTUs just for
transportation by 2030
10 new gigawatts of electricity by
2016
$100 billion for new infrastructure
FEDERAL FRAMEWORK
North American Energy Work group
Bilateral Framework on Clean Energy
and Climate Change
North American Carbon Storage Atlas
Cross Border Task Force
Transboundary reservoir negotiations
OVERALL OBJECTIVE
The Merida Initiative and Beyond
Merida support a 21st Century
borderlands including strong, resilient
communities.
Explore need, feasibility, and market for
renewable energy development and
transborder exchange
Now and in 2020, 2050, 2100
VISION
10 giga-watts of new RE
10% (1GW) exchanged
30,000 new jobs
Return on Investment
Investment
Return on Investment
Investment
Profit
Return on Investment
Investment
Profit
Jobs
Return on Investment
Investment
Profit
Jobs
Air
Qual
Return on Investment
Investment
Profit
Jobs
Air
Qual
GHG
GCC
Return on Investment
Investment
Qual
of Life
Profit
Jobs
Air
Qual
GHG
GCC
Return on Investment
Investment
Profit
Qual
of Life
Water
Jobs
Air
Qual
GHG
GCC
Return on Investment
Investment
Profit
Jobs
Qual
of Life
Water
Price
Stab’y
Air
Qual
GHG
GCC
Return on Investment
Investment
Profit
Jobs
Qual
of Life
Water
Price
Stab’y
Air
Qual
Safety
GHG
GCC
Return on Investment
Investment
Profit
Jobs
Qual
of Life
Water
Price
Stab’y
Air
Qual
GHG
GCC
Safety
Security
WHY TRANSBORDER?
The region is a common economy with
a common market for most products.
The region is an indigenous fuel
pauper; most is imported.
Renewable energy can provide the
linkage between the sides of the
border and to the future.
JUXTAPOSITION
Presidents’ Cross Border Electricity
Task Force
Top Down
VALUE ADDITION
Bottom Up
WORKshop
Transborder Renewable Energy
Subnational Actors
ROLE OF SUBNATIONALS
Land use/siting
Tax incentives for manufacture, jobs,
installation,
“Sell to grid”
Feed in Tariff (FIT) or Renewable
Portfolio Standard (RPS)
Enterprise Zones
NOW AND NEXT
Some doing well (Californias)
Some doing OK (ERCOT)
Some not doing (Void in AZ/NM-SO)
All can do better
HISTORY
Energy interdependence has evolved
NAFTA accommodated
NAEWG facilitated
SPP embraced
Northern BC, MX is in WECC and
electrons flow both ways
Why not for renewable energy as well?
PARADYGM
We are in emission and transmission
transition
Recent transmission was built to locate
generation in Mexico (energy
maquiladora)
Connections are built just for RE
PROGRESS
State legislative scan
Geographic database
Price elasticity
Survey
Workshop
Trip to US-Canada border
SURVEY
83% believed RE would be cost
competitive within 10 years
Clean jobs, economic development,
and foreign direct investment
Lack of comprehensive policy/plan
Benefits of cross border exchange far
outweigh costs and disadvantages
Wind, PV solar, geothermal
WORKshop PROCESS
Five complementary sessions:
Decision Science
Scenario Planning
Tours
HomeWORK
Plan for a Roadmap
GIS DATABASE
Interactive maps
http://174.129.155.124/layervis.html
ASU DECISION THEATER
Creation of a policy space through
application of decision science to
complex problems
SCENARIO PLANNING
Sustainability Competencies
How do we solve complex problems?
FutureScenarios:
Scenarios:
Future
Non-intervention
CityofofPHX
PHX
City
future scenarios
Complex problem constellations in the
current situation and their history
Intervention
Point
Sustainable
Sustainable
Development Straies
Sustainability
Developme
Strategies
transition strategies
Visions:
Visions:
Sustainability
SustainablePHX
PHX
Sustainable
visions
LONG-TERM VIEW
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Mexico exports virtual water when it
sends tomatoes north and Arizona
exports water when it sends electrons
to California from power plants.
Even if RE cannot be exchanged is it
worth developing since we export
virtual energy in the products, services
and commerce that we exchange.
BE CREATIVE
Imagination is everything!…A Einstein
The role of the individual
WIND TUNNEL
ROADMAP
Level of governance
International and transboundary
Federal, constitutional, sovereign
Regional
Subnational (state, tribes, municipio)
Local
Private sector, NGO, trade, advocacy
Now
1 year
5 years 10 years
REGIONAL POLICY
Eneregionalism
Regional transmission siting authority
Regional RPS and tradeable REC
Regional clearinghouse (ASU DT)
Regional TEIA
Regional enereducation
CANADA INSIGHTS
Rocky road to integration
Natural north south orientation
Potential is not reality
Significant investment motivated by
GCC and GHG concerns
Recognition of huge profits possible by
directing excess, cheap RE south
Crown corporations make it happen
CONTACT INFO
WWW.NACTS.ASU.edu
[email protected]
480-965-1846