Transcript スライド 1 - GRIPS

Development Issues in Africa
Spring 2006
Week 1.1: Economic Growth in Africa
Takashi Yamano
FASID
The Economics of Being Poor
Most people in the world are poor.
If we knew the economics of being poor, we
would know much of the economics that
really matters.
Theodore W. Schultz
Nobel Lecture: The Economics of Being Poor,
Journal of Political Economy,
1980, vol. 88: 639-651.
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The Economics of Being Poor
Most of the world’s poor people earn their
living from agriculture.
If we knew the economics of agriculture, we
would know much of the economics of
being poor.
Theodore W. Schultz
Nobel Lecture: The Economics of Being Poor,
Journal of Political Economy,
1980, vol. 88: 639-651.
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Development Issues in Africa
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Objective:
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To apply economic theory to economic
problems in Sub-Saharan Africa
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to obtain broad descriptive information on
various economic and social problems in SubSaharan Africa
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To develop academic communication skills
Methods:
Lectures and Student Participations
Plan: see Syllabus
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Week 1
Economic Growth in Africa:
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Economic Growth in Africa
Today’s contents
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Overview
Evidence from Cross-country Models
Does History solve the Africa mystery?
Can political reform provide solutions?
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Map of Africa
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Economic History in Africa
Phase 1: Pre and Post Independence Period in
1955-1973
Phase 2: Oil Crisis and Export Goods Price
Declines in 1973-1980 >> Debts Expansion
Phase 3: Adjustment Period
in 1980-1995
Phase 4: Post Washington Consensus Period
in 1995-presence
Phase 5: Some Bright Spots?
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Economic Growth
Annual Growth Rate (%)
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
Africa
4.01
4.68
2.86
3.00
South Asia
3.97
3.28
4.71
5.33
Asia
5.34
7.00
4.57
3.41
GNI per capita in 2000 and 2004
2000
2004
pc GNI
PPP pc GNI
pc GNI
PPP pc GNI
Sub-Saharan Africa
$480
$1,560
$600
$1,850
South Asia
$460
$2,260
$590
$2,830
East & Pacific Asia
$1,060
$4,120
$1,280
$5,070
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8.5
South Africa
Seychelles
Namibia
8
Gabon
7.5
Mauritius
Swaziland
Botswana
7
Zimbabwe
Cote d'Ivoire
Tog o Comoros
Ang
ola
Cameroon
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Ghana
Gambia,
The Lesotho
Mauritania
Central African
Republic
RwandaSeneg al
6.5
Madag
ascar
Nig
er
Zambia
Kenya
Sudan
Sierra Leone
Nig eria
Benin
Mali Burkina Faso
Burundi
Chad
Congo, Rep.Mozambique
Guinea-Bissau
Malawi
6
ln 19 80
PC GNI PPP in 1980 and 2004
6
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7
8
ln2004
9
10
Best and Worst Performers in the 1990s
PC GNI PPP
1994
2004
%change
Growth
rate
Mozambique
566
1,168
100.6
7.6
Rwanda
626
1,242
98.2
7.6
Angola
1,018
1,930
89.5
6.7
Zimbabwe
2,279
2,041
-10.4
-1.0
DR Congo
764
675
-11.7
-1.1
Sierra Leon
637
547
-14.2
-1.2
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GNI in US$ in 2004 (% in total SSA)
South Africa (43%)
Kenya
(3%)
Angola
(4%)
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Sudan (4%)
Nigeria (12%)
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Source: Deaton (1999) Journal of Economic Perspective vol. 13: 23-40
• Countries that are missing Economic
Growth rates in 1970s:
– Angola, Cape Verde, Comoros, E. Guinea, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritius, Mayotte, Mozambique,
Namibia, Tanzania, Uganda
• War and Conflict in 1960-2001
– Angola, Burundi, Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, Congo
(Zaire, DRC), Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau,
Liberia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda,
Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa,
Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe
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Cross-Country Regression Models
• There are serious problems with crosscountry regression models
– Missing data
– Missing variables
– Poor quality in data
– Small number of observations
• We can still obtain some insights
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Cross-country Regression Studies
• Easterly and Levine (1997) QJE
“Africa’s Growth Tragedy: policies and ethnic
divisions”
Africa’s high ethnic fragmentation explains poor
economic policies and performances.
• Sachs and Warner (1997) JAE
“Sources of slow growth in African Economies”
Africa’s slow growth can be explained in an international
cross-country framework:
Poor economic policies
Africa’s lack of openness to international markets
Lack of access to the sea
Tropical climate/diseases
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Easterly and Levine (1997) QJE
“Africa’s Growth Tragedy: policies and ethnic divisions”
• Ethnic diversity explains a substantial part of
public choices, political instability, and other
economic factors associated with long-run
growth.
Ethnic Diversity
Economic Growth
Public Policy Choices
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Ethno-linguistic Fractionalization Index (ETHNIC)
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AFRICA dummy remains
significant
ETHNIC weakens as policy
choices are included
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Ethnic Diversity, Political Instability, and Policy Choices
ETHNIC is correlated with
(+) Schooling
(-) Financial Depth
(+) Black Market Premium
(-) Infrastructure
But not with
Assassinations
Fiscal surplus
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Easterly and Levine (1997) QJE Summary
• Africa’s poor growth is associated with
– low schooling, political instability, underdeveloped financial
systems, distorted foreign exchange markets, high government
deficits, and insufficient infrastructure.
• Ethnic diversity is closely associated with
– Low schooling, underdeveloped financial systems, distorted
foreign exchange markets, and insufficient infrastructure
Ethnic Diversity
Economic Growth
Public Policy Choices
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Englebert (2000) WD
“Solving the Mystery of the African Dummy”
• African Dummy remains significant in
regression models, suggesting that specifically
African characteristics, not captured by
explanatory variables, exist. What is it?
• Hypothesis: the lack of historical continuity
from the pre-colonial to the post-colonial period
constraints the options available to African policy
makers. Legitimacy Problem!
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How to measure legitimacy?
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Legitimate countries in Africa
10 out of 38 in the data: Botswana, Burundi, Cape
Verde, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Mauritius, Rwanda,
Sao Tome, and Principe, Seychelles, and
Swaziland
Non-legitimate countries outside Africa:
Latin America: Bolivia, Guatemala, Peru, Ecuador
Asia: India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines
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Comparison between Legitimate and Non-legitimate
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Englebert (2000) WD Summary
• Legitimacy is correlated with policy choices
• Legitimacy is an important determinant of
economic growth: legitimate states grow 2.2 %
faster than their non-legitimate counterparts
• Results call for a greater integration of political
science into the study of economic growth.
• There are reasons (e.g., legitimacy) for bad
policy choices. Economists need to know about
them.
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Further Readings
• Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001). “Colonial origins
of comparative development: an empirical investigations,”
AER, 91 (5): 1369-1401.
They divide colonialism into Settlement and Extractive:
Settlement: Institutions that protect property rights were created and
helped post-colonial development.
Extractive: Resources were only extracted, and institutions that protect
property rights did not develop.
Settler mortality had a large impact on choosing settlements.
The authors show that
Mortality >> Settlement/Extractive >> Institutions >> Economic Growth
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Source: Acemoglu, et al. (2001) AER vol. 13: 23-40