Transcript Presentation title to appear here
Turbine Supply Agreements
30 October 2012, GIZ Workshop, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Contents
1.
GL Garrad Hassan
2.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability
3.
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’
4.
Summary
Contents
1.
GL Garrad Hassan
2.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability 3.
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’ 4.
Summary
Vancouver Ottawa Portland San Diego Montreal Peterborough Austin Querétaro Porto Alegre Santiago
Local understanding forms a global perspective
GL Garrad Hassan: 1,000+ staff, 44 locations, 26 countries
Glasgow London Slough Bristol Cork Paris Heerenveen Sint Maarten Kaiser-Wilhelm Koog Copenhagen Hinnerup Oldenburg Hamburg Warsaw Imola Lisbon Barcelona Zaragoza Madrid Izmir Cairo Cape Town
Part of the GL Group: renewables, oil & gas, maritime
Beijing Seoul Tokyo Shanghai Mumbai Bangkok Bangalore Singapore Newcastle Wellington Melbourne
GL Garrad Hassan Capabilities
• The world’s largest renewable energy consultancy. It offers independent technical and engineering services, products, and training courses to the onshore and offshore wind, wave, tidal and solar sectors.
• Has been supporting investors in wind farms for over two decades. The detailed technical understanding of its experts provides a solid basis for informing intelligent decisions, regardless of the scale of the project or investment, or the lifecycle stage.
• Has worked with almost every major manufacturer. It has led the market for manufacturer services for many years and is continuously developing its industry standard turbine design software.
Wind: Experience Matters
• • • •
Energy Assessment
analysing 20,000 MW of new projects per year 25% of all projects worldwide 70% of UK installed capacity 75% of Irish installed capacity •
Operational Assessment
15% of the world’s installed capacity •
Short-term forecasting
over 20% of the world’s operational capacity • • • •
Measurements
power curve measurements on 500+ turbines load measurements on 100+ turbines founding member of MEASNET first ever load measurements on offshore wind farm • • •
Due Diligence
over 25% of the world’s project financed wind farms world’s largest wind farm portfolio acquisition world’s first wind energy bond deal • • •
Independent Engineer
45% of US wind farms The world’s five largest wind farm financings The first project financed offshore wind farm • • •
Products / software solutions
Industry standard wind turbine design software Bladed Bladed used to design world’s largest turbine world‘s largest independent SCADA supplier – 6,000 MW •
Offshore Wind
project management of world’s largest offshore wind farm - Thanet
Contents
1.
GL Garrad Hassan 2.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability
3.
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’ 4.
Summary
Environmental Criteria
• The following site-specific environmental criteria should be considered when assessing turbine suitability:
Annual average air density Max. temperature Min. temperature Lightning Risk Altitude a.s.l.
Terrain class Maximum slope Corrosion class Dust risk Seismic class Annual mean wind speed at hub height (max.) Extreme 50-year wind speed 3 second gust Average turbulence intensity at hub height Turbine spacing kg/m3
C
C strikes/km 2 /yr M Simple/complex deg.
m/s m/s % (@ 15 m/s) Rotor Diameters
IEC Classification
• Site specific characteristics should be compared to turbine class limits as defined in IEC 61400, as follows:
Certification Process
• • Certification is used to give a standard measure of quality and is undertaken by recognised international classification bodies, including GL Renewables Certification.
For wind projects, the certification process confirms conformity with design standards according to ‘IEC 61400’ part 1 – safety systems.
• Statement of Compliance for the A / B / C Design Assessment.
Certification Process
• Additional requirements exist in order to obtain Type Certification in accordance with IEC WT 01.
Certified Turbines
• A detailed list of certifications and references for wind turbines, offshore projects, condition monitoring systems / monitoring bodies, electrical components, foundations, gearboxes, grid code compliance, rotor blades, and towers can be from the GL Renewables Certification website.
• http://www.gl-group.com/en/certification/renewables/ListOfCertifications.php
Other Considerations
• • • • • • • • When considering turbine suitability, consideration needs to be given to other factors including: power curve and energy production (!!!) planning compliance and development constraints.
electricity grid reliability and connection requirements.
site access, transportation and storage.
availability of installation and maintenance equipment (eg. cranes).
anticipated operating temperatures.
tropical storm activity.
Contents
1.
GL Garrad Hassan 2.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability 3.
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’
’ 4.
Summary
Wind Farm Project Cashflow
DEVELOPMENT PHASE
(0.5 to several years)
CONSTRUCTION PHASE
(12 to 18 months)
OPERATIONAL PHASE
(20 to 25 years)
DECOMISSIONING PHASE
(3 to 4 months)
MEDIUM RISK & LOW INVESTMENT HIGH RISK & HIGH INVESTMENT MEDIUM RISK & MEDIUM RETURN MEDIUM RISK & HIGH RETURN LOW RISK & LOW RETURN BREAK EVEN (loan repaid)
Wind Farm Investment Risks
• What are some of the key investment risks in a wind farm project?
Risk
Energy Measurement and Analysis Operating Performance Technology Cost Overrun Delay Credit Risk Regulation Insurance Financial Country Risks
Example
Deviation from base case due to uncertainty or error in the measurement and/or analysis?
Deviation from the base case due to machine breakdown or other reason to shut down turbines or the wind farm?
Is it reliable and how much will it cost to operate?
Will there be an additional funding requirement for additional equipment or will the contracts claim for additional costs?
Will the revenues start in time to pay the first loan repayment?
What is the risk of bankruptcy of a counterparty Is there a risk of change in green energy support pricing or grid regulation?
Will it be available and at what price?
Is there a risk of interest rate and foreign exchange changes?
Political instability or regulation change. Also climate risks.
Wind Farm Project Financing Timeline
- 6 months - 5 months Initial Banking Model Detailed Banking Model, audit & tax Energy Assessment Due Diligence (legal, technical, insurance) - 2 months - 1 month Construction Draw Down Due Diligence Monitoring +18 months Operational Repayments Due Diligence Monitoring + X years
Initial Proposal Term Sheet Credit Approval Syndication Final Acceptance Final Payment
Turbine Pricing
Global wind turbine price index by delivery date: Japan Australia United States China Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / International Renewable Energy Agency
Turbine Technological Risk
TURBINE DESIGN KEY CONSIDERATIONS Effecting power output:
• Optimum Hub Height • Optimum Blade diameter • Proven Installation record • Proven Availability record • Proven component reliability • Proven power & thrust curve • Proven climate / icing control • Correct IEC class, type certified
Key Technical Considerations
• • • • • • The key technical considerations for turbine selection include: What is the Gearbox reliability?
What is the Generator reliability?
How much Capital cost is involved?
How much are the long term O&M costs?
What quality assurances are there?
Local Content
List of existing and proposed wind turbine manufacturing facilities in Vietnam: Source: Make Consulting
A Proven Turbine Model?
• • • • • • • • For a genuine evolution from a smaller turbine GL GH may consider that the turbine may be considered proven if the following conditions are met: Capable of performing the contractual and commercial obligations.
Certification is current (and valid) – design, type (and class – I, II, III & S).
There are 100 turbines in operation.
At least one turbine with more than 10,000 hours of operation.
A fleet with in excess of 50,000 cumulative hours.
Greater than 95 % average availability of the fleet.
Availability of independent test reports (unless a commodity).
Contents
1.
GL Garrad Hassan 2.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability 3.
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’ 4.
Summary
Summary
• • • • • • • • Demonstrate suitability for site - certification and site comparison.
Include certification requirements in specification.
Make sure that the designed turbine will be delivered as per specification.
Ensure independent test reports unless a “commodity”.
Choose a turbine with maximum track record.
Specify environmental, performance and reliability requirements.
Use the IEC standards as far as possible.
Ensure local / national compliance.
Thank-you!
Daniel Astbury
– Senior Engineer, Business Development Manager – Thailand [email protected]