Transcript Slide 1

WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Energy and Environmental indicators
in the WIOD System of Satellite Accounts
Dataset version 1: Energy & Emissions to Air
Frederik Neuwahl and Aurélien Genty
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain
http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Kurt Kratena
Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna, Austria
http://www.wifo.ac.at
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Outline
– Scope and definition of satellite accounts covered
– Available information and data reconciliation effort
– Construction of Energy and Air Emission Accounts:
methodology
– Completion of vers. 1 dataset: discussion of results
– Modelling: bridging monetary to physical information
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WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Energy-environment satellite accounts in WIOD
– Core indicators
 Energy use, 25 energy commodities including
•
•
•
•
•
Oil and gas
Electricity and heat
Coal and coal derivatives
Refinery products
Renewables and waste
 Air emissions
• Global warming potential (CO2, N2O, CH4)
• Acidification potential (SO2, NOX, NH3)
• Tropospheric ozone formation potential (NOX, NMVOC, CO, CH4)
– Additional indicators
 Water consumption
 Land use
 Resource use
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WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Target: Energy & emissions satellite accounts
– NAMEA concept: framework fully compliant with the
accounting conventions of the SUT system. Allows
integrated economy-environment analysis/modelling
 NAMEA-AIR: emissions to air by pollutant and by sector
 NAMEA-E: energy use by energy commodity and by sector, with a
range of coexisting concepts: net energy use, gross energy use,
emission relevant energy use
– Different methodologies: energy first, inventory first
– Additionally: summary energy balances and energy supply
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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The starting blocks
– Energy information is widely available in two main forms:
 IEA extended energy balances: ~100 flows, ~60 energy
commodities. In TJ. Complemented by some (less rich) price
information.
 Use table of the national accounts: ~60 sectors, ~4 energy-related
commodities. In $.
– In addition to this basic data situation
 Some countries already publish energy NAMEA
 Wider availability of air emission NAMEA (inventory first);
Eurostat provides either official NSI data or estimations for the
whole range of EU countries.
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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The Energy NAMEA
CPA 1)
01
Insgesamt
139 175
Steinkohlen und
1 717
Braunkohlen und
876
zusamme
103 335
n
0
Erdöl
Ottokraft8 104
stoffe
Dieselkraft68 763
stoffe
FlugturMineralöle binen0
kraftstoff
Heizöl
25 822
leicht
Heizöl
0
schwer
sonst.
Mineralöl647
produkte
Gase
12 981
Erneuerbare Energien
360
Elektrischer Strom
19 907
10
158 635
3 956
116 760
11
23 903
0
0
15
228 000
6 236
5 057
21
182 558
13 622
3 035
22
48 127
0
0
23
5 993 626
349 352
5 533
24
1 385 707
32 631
9 946
25
90 325
0
108
40
5 829 714
1 363 356
1 451 322
45
273 322
539
275
60
361 274
344
592
61
61 302
0
0
62
369 841
0
0
2 456
0
740
0
52 926
0
8 270
0
7 353
0
5 535 389
4 568 702
836 393
0
11 480
0
96 791
0
241 885
0
298 538
0
59 622
0
369 840
0
45
40
1 592
465
669
147 454
1 278
550
708
18 352
7 156
79
1 135
1 309
692
6 930
656
727
1 003
2 002
940
1 614
76 245
281 981
28 953
105
0
0
0
0
0
158
0
0
0
0
0
0
368 600
811
7
31 420
3 338
5 939
54 980
32 756
9 019
23 560
17 252
35
0
0
30
0
9 506
2 839
0
147 670
168 665
878
34 209
0
0
26 319
0
261
1 193
11
34 258
0
21 517
8
1 638
3 478
95 930
89
67 763
972
79 668
5 908
72 055
18
18 068
10
22 696
615 423
64 441
12 281
26 629
631 692
310 545
24
196 168
93
21 884
11
56 842
36 700
647 099
257 695
2 013 451
130 035
15 613
479
14 531
9 366
1 309
3 102
57 388
4 272
1 672
8
0
0
0
1
0
DE 2000. Source: DESTAT
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Key task in the estimation of NAMEA-E
– Main issue: reconciling the classification mismatch between
IEA balances and national accounts
– However, different approaches are possible:
 Enrich the use table with additional rows containing energy carrier
use in physical unit; uses partial price information, but without
allowing an immediate link between the entries of rows 10, 11, 23 and
40 and the physical flows.
 Full reconciliation between IEA balances and the monetary
information of the use table. Requires the estimation of a full vector of
energy prices by energy commodity, de facto is equivalent to the
disaggregation of rows 10,11, 23 and 40 in a finer product
classification, and to building the equivalent PIOT rows. Also, data
inconsistencies would require changes either in the UT or in the EB
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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From energy balances to NAMEA-E: General
issues of concordance to be addressed
– Autoproduction of electricity Stems from discordant
– Assignment of road transport conceptual definition of sector
– Territorial vs. Residence principle; affects:
}
 Marine transport
 Aviation
 Road transport
} International bunkering
Tourism statistics
Equivalent problem in
– Military use
}
– Extraterritorial organisations National accounts
– Splitting of non energy intensive sectors to target
classification
information in use table
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Alignment with official data
Deviation of results from officially available data: NAMEA-E
(DE, NL, AT, DK)
 Own estimation fully calibrated to official data at the
available level of sector, energy commodity and time label
 Extrapolation to target sector, energy commodity and time
series by deriving from own estimation growth indices and
split shares
Deviation of results from officially available data: NAMEAAIR (all EU countries)
 Emission coefficients scaled to replicate official data of
emissions by sector
 Or: statistical difference allowed (CO2: small range is
physically possible)
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WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Results for energy :
secAtB
secC
sec15t16
sec17t18
sec19
sec20
sec21t22
sec23
sec24
sec25
sec26
sec27t28
sec29
sec30t33
sec34t35
sec36t37
secE
secF
WIOD
126387
156196
211963
40952
4010
33134
214914
5963088
1583780
162189
307081
997489
70072
96568
129331
86295
5441606
213665
DESTAT
144232
204329
231464
49677
3244
48735
230686
5993626
1385707
90325
324448
1036779
100395
81487
146372
29162
5844870
273322
diff %
-12.37%
-23.56%
-8.43%
-17.56%
23.63%
-32.01%
-6.84%
-0.51%
14.29%
79.56%
-5.35%
-3.79%
-30.20%
18.51%
-11.64%
195.91%
-6.90%
-21.83%
sec50
sec51
sec52
secH
sec60
sec61
sec62
sec63
sec64
secJ
sec70t74
secL
secM
secN
secO
tot ind
HH
TOTAL
WIOD
58187
138072
184990
94677
343020
61718
386296
213580
90461
72391
157942
298998
141668
223402
147081
18451202
4150413
22601615
DESTAT
93653
132464
209532
91327
361274
61302
369841
214863
51501
67619
140722
219175
104039
153397
238661
18728226
3827375
22555602
diff %
-37.87%
4.23%
-11.71%
3.67%
-5.05%
0.68%
4.45%
-0.60%
75.65%
7.06%
12.24%
36.42%
36.17%
45.64%
-38.37%
-1.48%
8.44%
0.20%
DEU 2000; total energy use by sector, vs. NAMEA-E
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Results for energy :
– Accuracy tested with NL, DE, AT, DK (countries that publish
a NAMEA-E)
– Total values generally match within ~2%
– Deviations in energy intensive sectors and households are
typically limited (less than 10%)
– Deviations in other sectors can be large in percentage, but
not very influential in absolute value
– Deviations by individual energy commodity can be larger in
percentage, especially with small absolute values
– In some cases the totals can have larger deviations (20%),
due to energy information used by NSI different from that
reported to IEA (vintage problem)
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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CO2 emissions by country: comparison with official data
1400
Mt
Total country
1200
1000
800
WIOD
Official
sources
600
400
200
TUR
JPN
AUS
GBR
SWE
NLD
ITA
IRL
GRC
DEU
FRA
FIN
ESP
DNK
BEL
AUT
0
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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CO2 emissions by sector: comparison with official data
secAtB
secC
sec15t16
sec17t18
sec19
sec20
sec21t22
sec23
sec24
sec25
sec26
sec27t28
sec29
sec30t33
sec34t35
sec36t37
secE
secF
ESTAT
8879
4563
10712
1616
108
1436
8042
21269
32223
2083
43425
59502
3795
2387
4356
1141
343897
9264
WIOD not
calibrated
6356
11690
8662
1334
144
742
6950
46403
48151
1292
39856
111515
2122
1987
2628
820
323435
1987
Diff
-28,42%
156,21%
-19,14%
-17,47%
33,24%
-48,28%
-13,57%
118,18%
49,43%
-37,99%
-8,22%
87,41%
-44,08%
-16,76%
-39,66%
-28,13%
-5,95%
-78,55%
WIOD
calibrated
8059
5592
10512
1646
112
1511
8231
24425
32652
2111
40777
66460
3511
2428
4200
1179
332915
8870
DEU 2000, kt CO2
Diff
-9,23%
22,55%
-1,87%
1,84%
3,61%
5,22%
2,35%
14,84%
1,33%
1,35%
-6,10%
11,69%
-7,48%
1,68%
-3,58%
3,28%
-3,19%
-4,25%
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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(continued)
sec50
sec51
sec52
secH
sec60
sec61
sec62
sec63
sec64
secJ
sec70
sec71t74
secL
secM
secN
secO
secTOT
FC_HH
TOTAL
ESTAT
3003
7769
8956
3160
21200
8045
13581
14495
2669
3074
806
6296
10497
4339
6840
13981
687408
212854
900261
WIOD not
calibrated
1685
5273
4671
2375
1934
4568
30889
4238
1928
1684
1067
4014
4832
4023
5873
6326
701453
119544
820998
Diff
-43,90%
-32,13%
-47,84%
-24,84%
-90,88%
-43,22%
127,45%
-70,76%
-27,77%
-45,21%
32,36%
-36,25%
-53,97%
-7,29%
-14,13%
-54,75%
2,04%
-43,84%
-8,80%
WIOD
calibrated
3097
7838
8950
3157
21737
4332
27665
14784
2292
2914
976
6586
9690
4337
6064
12451
692059
214094
906153
Diff
3,15%
0,89%
-0,07%
-0,06%
2,53%
-46,16%
103,71%
1,99%
-14,13%
-5,20%
21,03%
4,60%
-7,69%
-0,03%
-11,34%
-10,94%
0,68%
0,58%
0,65%
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Results for CO2:
– Accuracy can be tested for most EU countries, against
NAMEA-AIR data reported to Eurostat
– Total values generally match within few %
– Deviations in energy intensive sectors should again be small
(less than 10%)
– In some cases the totals can have significant deviations, and
the emissions from energy intensive sectors (power sector)
can have large deviations (20%), unexplainable (cannot
stem from wrong allocation: no process emissions or
classification discordance) unless the energy information
used by NSI is different from that reported to IEA. Data
vintages issue.
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non-CO2 emissions:
– The modelling of emission coefficients is complex, combines
parameters such as changes of fuel quality, combustion
technology, end of pipe abatement techniques
– Use whenever possible official statistical sources for
emissions by industry
– Draw on EXIOPOL experience for the modelling of
emissions (explain emissions vs fuel substitution,
technology)
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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SOx vs energy (emitting fuels) inputs in EU countries:
whole national economy (EU15 countries), trend
0.6
SOx emission/energy use
(t SO2-e/TJ)
0.5
AUT
0.4
BEL
DNK
ESP
FIN
0.3
FRA
DEU
GRC
0.2
IRL
ITA
NLD
0.1
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SWE
GBR
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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SOx vs energy (emitting fuels) inputs in EU countries:
SOx intensive industries, aggregate EU15, trend
0.7
SOx emission/energy use
(t SO2-e/TJ)
0.6
0.5
sec21
sec23
0.4
sec24
sec26
sec27
0.3
sec40
sec61
0.2
0.1
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
FC_HH
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SOx vs energy (emitting fuels) inputs in EU countries:
Basic metals sector, EU15 countries, year 2006
sec27
SOx emission/energy use
(t SO2-e/TJ)
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
GBR
SWE
NLD
ITA
IRL
GRC
GER
FRA
FIN
ESP
DNK
BLG
AUT
0
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and
physical (NAMEA energy) data
Different data sets with identical or linked variables
The consistency problem:
1. Energy inputs from NAMEA energy (in TJ, 25 energy
carriers) by NACE industry combined with energy prices
(OECD/IEA) yield energy inputs  aggregating to CPA
energy commodities  monetary energy inputs
CPA*WIOD industry
2. Energy inputs from SUT: monetary energy inputs
CPA*WIOD industry
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and physical
(NAMEA Energy) data
Consistency of classifications: energy commodities
Energy data for 25 energy carriers in energy units by NACE
industry  CPA/Energy * WIOD industry
CPA 10: Coal (without coke)
CPA 11: Crude Oil & Natural Gas; identification of crude oil by
user, only 23 (refineries) uses crude oil
CPA 23: Oil products & coke
CPA 40: Electricity & Heat, gas distribution
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and
physical (NAMEA energy) data
Comparison of energy inputs in monetary units: long term energy price
increase
10: Coal & lignite input
E: electricity
300
250
150
NAMEA, energy
100
WIOD, SUT
50
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
mill. €
200
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and
physical (NAMEA energy) data
Comparison of energy inputs in monetary units: ‘no problem’ case
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
NAMEA, energy
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
WIOD, SUT
1995
mill. €
11: Crude petroleum & nat.gas input
23: Coke, refined petroleum
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Consistency between monetary (SUT) and
physical (NAMEA energy) data
Comparison of energy inputs in monetary units: the post 2004 energy price
boom
23: Coke, refined petroleum input
60: Land transport
3000
2500
1500
NAMEA, energy
1000
WIOD, SUT
500
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
mill. €
2000
24
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and
physical (NAMEA energy) data
Comparison of energy inputs in monetary units: the post 2004 energy price
boom
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
NAMEA, energy
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
WIOD, SUT
1995
mill. €
40: Electricity, gas, heat input
27t28: Basic metal
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
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Consistency between monetary (SUT) and
physical (NAMEA energy) data
‘Soft link’ between SUT (WP1/WIOD) and Energy satellite accounts
(WP4/WIOD)
1. Start with NAMEA energy, apply absolute prices (per energy unit) of 25
energy carriers, from Energy Prices & Taxes (OECD/IEA)
2. Calculate NAMEA energy inputs in monetary units for CPA energy
commodities by WIOD-industry (compare to SUT energy inputs in
monetary units)
3. Create a ‘soft link’ between
- calculated (implicit) deflators of CPA energy commodities from NAMEA
energy inputs in monetary units and in energy units
- SUT energy deflators of CPA energy commodities
WIOD conference – Vienna, 26-28 May 2010
Thank you for your kind attention
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