Transcript Diapositive 1

IV Jornada Europea sobre Alta velocidad y territorio, 10 de nov. de 2009
The new purposes of the French High-speed rail system
in the framework of a centralized network :
a substitute to the domestic Air Transport market ?
Pierre ZEMBRI
Universitad de Cergy-Pontoise
EA 4113 MRTE
[email protected]
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Contents
• From a specialized towards an « universal »
TGV network
• A growing competition with air transport
• A strong position of the SNCF in the intra-modal
competition
• Some conclusions about rail-air relationship
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1. From line to network
The high speed network represents now a large part of the
rail services, 4 sub-networks being concerned from/to
Paris.
The interoperability between new high-speed trunk lines
and the rest of the electrified network permits a large
coverage of the French territory : the TGV services
network is broader than the real high speed one.
Cross-country services using successively two high-speed
lines and passing through the Paris Region are constantly
growing from year to year.
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From line to network : the high-speed
infrastructures in operation
(418 km)
(1107 km)
(1802 km)
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The TGV services network in 2009
(combining high-speed and regular lines)
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A realistic map of
the high-speed
infrastructure
network in 2016
The centralization is
reinforced.
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A growing proportion of cross-country links
They represent 10 % of the 550 daily TGVs, and 14 % of the
receipts. Their number has significantly grown between
1992 and 2001. There are two categories of links :
-« Diametral » links : they pass through the Ile-de-France
region, using high-speed or regular tangential lines. There
are 4 peripheral stations : Roissy CDG Airport, Chessy
(Disneyland Paris), Massy-Palaiseau and VersaillesChantiers.
- « Transversal » links : They use part of the high-speed
network but don’t pass through Ile-de-France. This is the
most recent segment of market developed (since 2001).
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The « transversal » links in 2007
1 line = 1 round-trip service per workday
Workdays : tuesdays and thursdays
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2. A growing competition with air transport
From the beginning of high-speed services in France, the main target of
the TGV system has been business traffic using the domestic air
transport network.
The SNCF can be considered as an active player in the Air transport
competition, offering low travel times, competitive prices and high
capacities. The frequencies can be high between the largest towns : 16
round-trip services between Paris and Marseilles, 21 between Paris and
Bordeaux.
The development of the TGV network has created new opportunities of
competition with Air France and other carriers. That is one of the reasons
of the relative weakness of competition within the domestic Air Transport
sector.
Air France is now planning a progressive downsizing of its domestic
services on the lines where the market share of the TGV is growing.
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The TGV-Air competition
Some Origin-Destination pairs where TGV times are
under 3.30 hours (1)
OD pair
Paris - Marseilles
Travel time by
TGV
Frequency
(workdays)
Number of
flights
(workdays)
3 h 02 to 3 h 15
16
AF : 20
Paris - Strasbourg 2 h 17 to 2 h 21
15
AF : 9
Paris - Bordeaux
3 h 05 to 3 h 20
21
AF : 18
Paris - Montpellier 3 h 18 to 3 h 35
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AF : 11
(1) : Average travel time from city center to city center by air, integrating precaution
Time (security checking) and deadline imposed for the check-in, is about 3 hrs 1/2.
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The TGV-Air competition (SNCF vs. AF)
Is there a correlation between the attractiveness of the
TGV offer and the level of service of AF ?
We have compared the level of service of the two carriers, according to
the TGV average travel time (quite different from the real distance).
Hypothesis :
When AF considers that it has lost the competition, most of the
remaining flights are oriented towards Roissy-CDG, which is the main
hub of the carrier, in order to focus on the connections with long-haul
flights. On the contrary, when AF considers that its market share can be
consolidated, a majority of its flights are oriented towards Orly Airport,
more convenient for the access to/from Paris.
This is largely confirmed by our comparison, except some large towns
like Lyon.
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Is there a correlation between the attractiveness of the
TGV offer and the level of service of AF ? (2)
Area of intense
competition
1000
119
128
128
20
20
139
140
190
190
204
245
303
316
316
329
345
100
23
15
21
14
16
9
9
3
4
27
20
4
21
14
12
18
10
7
9
8
11
9
4
5
5
3
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Predominance
of Air
Transport
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Pa
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Predominance
of high-speed
rail
Avg time TGV (minutes)
freq TGV
Freq air AF
Logarithmic scale. Source : carriers.
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Is there a correlation between the attractiveness of the
TGV offer and the orientation of AF services to CDG ?
350
100%
90%
300
80%
250
70%
200
60%
50%
150
40%
100
30%
20%
50
10%
0%
Pa
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Pa Re on
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Pa tr
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Av g time TGV (minutes)
% Flights to CDG
Except for Lyon and
Strasbourg, 100 % of
AF flights connects
the towns only with
the CDG hub when
the average TGV
travel time is under
150 minutes.
The proportion is
under 50 % when
TGV travel time is
over 3 hours.
Three towns are not
connected to CDG :
Toulon, Biarritz and
Perpignan.
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Air lines closures related to the competition
with TGV
Some TGV market
shares :
-Paris - Lyon : 97 %
(2008) ;
-Paris - Avignon : 95 %
(2004) ;
-Paris - Marseille : 83 %
(2007) ;
-Paris - Strasbourg : 70 %
(2008) ;
- Paris - Bordeaux : 68 %
(2008) ;
-Paris - Toulon : 65 %
(2004) ;
-Paris - Montpellier : 65 %
(2006).
From : Le Quotidien du Tourisme
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TGV vs. Low Cost : competition is over
In the French context, newcomers in the Air Transport market had to
face a severe challenge :
-the allocation of slots in the main airports dominated by Air France is not
sufficient for a credible level of service,
-and there is the TGV and its low prices…
In 2009, there is only one one competitor in the face of Air France :
Easyjet. But, the number of domestic lines is weak and the competition
with high-speed rail is not a priority. Easyjet closed its Orly - Marseilles
line in 2004, considering that it had lost the game.
Domestic lines in operation in november 2009 :
-Orly - Nice (5 round trips) and CDG - Nice (1 round trip),
-Orly - Toulouse (5 rt),
-CDG - Biarritz (2 rt),
-CDG - Bastia and CDG - Ajaccio,
-Lyon - Nantes, Lyon - Bordeaux, Lyon - Toulouse & Lyon - Biarritz.
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SNCF has a low-cost subsidiary : iD TGV
This subsidiary runs high-speed trains from Paris to 6 main directions at a
very low production cost :
-trainsets are always attached to regular TGVs : no track fee and no train
driver to pay,
-ticket sales are only on the Internet, and the ticket must be printed by the
user,
-the rolling stock belongs to SNCF.
Prices begin at 15 € one-way, and become higher following the classical Yield
Management rules (the maximum price is the regular TGV one).
Lines in operation in 2009 :
-Paris - Lyon,
-Paris - Grenoble,
-Paris - Marseille, Paris - Montpellier - Perpignan,
-(Lille -) Paris - Toulon - Nice,
-Paris - Strasbourg - Mulhouse,
-Paris - Bordeaux - Toulouse or Hendaye.
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3. A strong position of the SNCF in the
intra-modal competition
In the next years, the liberalization of the Rail transport industry in Europe
will go on with the opening of international services in december 2009, and
then with the introduction of competition on domestic markets ten years
later.
High speed, whose market share is 81 %, may play a major role in the
competition. But is there a real open access to the French market ?
The SNCF has tried to transfer the largest part of its long-distance services
to the TGV, in order to make the « entry fee » on its market as expensive
as possible.
For instance, a TGV trainset costs about 25 millions €. If a newcomer
needs 30 units for a decent service level, the amount to pay before any
ticket selling is : 750 millions € !
The track fees will also be very expensive in 2011 on high-speed lines.
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What will happen in december 2009 ?
Nothing, or nearly nothing !
All the neighboring carriers are involved in common subsidiaries with
SNCF, with strong links difficult to get rid of :
-Eurostar (Eurostar UK, SNCF, SNCB). Recently, SNCF had to face
DBAG for the purchasing of its partner Eurostar UK.
-Thalys (SNCF, SNCB, DBAG, NS). Thalys services replace planes
between Paris and Brussels. DBAG operates its own trains between
Brussels and Cologne.
-Lyria (SNCF, CFF/SBB/FFS),
-Artesia (SNCF, FS),
-Elispsos (SNCF, RENFE),
-Alleo (SNCF, DBAG).
Only the Italian Railways FS have announced their intention to operate
trains between Milan and Paris, via Turin and Lyon.
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Some conclusions (1)
1. The TGV services network covers the essential part of the French longdistance market. It constitutes a new standard characterized by a set of
radial, diametral and transversal services using a centralized
infrastructure network ;
2. The development of the high-speed infrastructure network will accelerate
existing services more than it will create new ones. Each acceleration
phase will reduce de facto the market share of domestic aviation,
handicapped by uncompressible security procedures, the growing weight
of taxes and the perspective of new oil crisis ;
3. That will provoke either a cooperation between air and rail carriers
(SNCF being for instance a partner of Air France for feedering services
to/from the CDG hub), or the entry of air carriers in the rail market (an
attempt by the alliance Air France - Veolia Transport has aborted in 2009).
There is no room for many other newcomers in the domestic and
international short-haul Air Transport market, even low cost carriers.
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Some conclusions (2)
4. If the substitution of planes by TGVs is a nearly certain evolution for
most of the domestic and short-haul international lines (like Paris London, Paris - Genève, Paris - Amsterdam, etc.), the developement
of complementarities between the two modes is unsufficient.
Two airports are directly serviced by high-speed trains : CDG and Lyon St-Exupéry, but they are mainly on transversal or diametral routes, with
lower frequencies than radial ones. They are not considered as
intermodal nodes, but as « regular » stations where some connections
between TGVs are possible from time to time.
If the physical connection is of fair quality, the customer still has to build
by its own the eventual connections between rail and air services. The
Airport managers don’t promote rail connections. Baggage check-in is
not possible in SNCF stations. The situation is really different from
Zurich, Geneva or Francfort.
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Thank you for your
attention.
Estacion Lyon St-Exupéry TGV
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