Transcript Mapa Drogowa OZE

What changes to the present law does the
renewable energy sector expect?
Michal Cwil
Polish Economic Chamber of Renewable energy
ul. Gotarda 9, 02-683 Warszawa
Tel. +48 22 548 49 99, Fax +48 22 548 49 00
[email protected] www.pigeo.org.pl
7th March 2012
Seminar of Clifford Chance “Renewable energy development”
Polish Economic Chamber of Renewable Energy
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Why do we develop renewable sources?
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growing energy needs
population grows
fossil fuels are reducing
rising costs of energy production from fossil fuels
we want to reduce dependence on energy imports
from outside the EU and Poland
we want to realize EU energy policies based on lowor zero emissions.
The increase in global energy consumption, 1900-2002
in million tons of oil equivalent, Mtoe
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source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1900
1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
1 TWh = 11,63 * 1 Mtoe
Global population, 1950 – 2100
in billion persons
source: L. David Roper
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9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Population
2040
2050
2060
Verhulst Fit
2070
2080
2090
2100
The estimated increase in energy consumption, 1975-2300
10^15 british thermal unit, PBTU
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source: L. David Roper
1.000 m3 of natural gas = 1 MBtu
Current energy consumption per capita
in million british termal unit per capita per year, MBTU/per capita/year
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USA:
Industrialized countries:
Developing countries:
World:
UE27:
350
200
35
75
162
POLAND:
103
Non-renewable resources - the peak of yield
oil production in thousands. ek barrels / day.
The price of oil rose from $ 11 a (1998) to $ 147 (2008)
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Rumunia
Romania
Włochy
Italy
Dania
Denmark Norwegia
Norway
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Peak production is over
Zjednoczone
United Kingdom
Królestwo
Why is the law on renewable energy sources?
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2009/28/WE Directive
=>
National Renewable Energy Action Plan
according to Art. 4 of the Directive each member member
prepare a plan. On its basis the target in 2020 is
realized.
The Polish Government provided to the EC the strategy on 9th of Dec 2010 and
announced that the targets for renewable energy sources will be achieved based on
the new regulations which are adopted in the new law on renewable energy sources.
Timetable for the adoption of the Directive
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25 June2009:
Directive entered into force
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30 June2009:
Publication by the EC a template for Action plans
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Dec. 2009:
Commission reports on biomass sustainability
criteria and aspects of biofuels sustainability
criteria
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Dec. 2009:
Member States “forecast documents” of scope for
making or receiving transfers of renewable energy
under the cooperation mechanisms
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30 June 2010:
Member States present National Action Plans –
Poland „filled” just by 9 of Dec. 2010.
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5 Dec. 2010:
Full implementation of the Directive on a national
level with all Acts, regulations
The scope of the legal changes requested
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The regulations of
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administrative procedures, regulations and codes (art. 13)
information and training(art. 14)
access to and operation of the grids(art. 16)
sustainability scheme of biofuels (art. 17-21)
Support schemes for renewables in electricity, heating and cooling and
transport
Specific measures concerning biomass and its mobilisation
Planned use of cooperation mechanisms – statistical transfers and
joint projects
Preparation and follow-up of the implementation of the action plan
It is needed to provide proper obligations for the steady
increase of RES in energy production in the years 2012 - 2020
to achieve the objectives
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Responsibilities should be made to ensure the continued growth of the
shares of energy from renewable sources in all sectors. At the same time
achieving the goals should be based on new and efficient sources. Such an
approach would greatly facilitate the implementation of new targets
drawn by the EU for 2030 and 2050.
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ensuring the development of all technologies
investor interest in new investments to promote the fulfillment of
the objectives
lack of ”transfer" of biomass markets across sectors
avoid the phenomenon of saturation of green energy market in
the mid-term achievement of the target
What is the share of energy from renewable sources in
gross final consumption? Final consumtion: ca. 65 000 ktoe (750 TWh), (2700 PJ)
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2010
2020
23%
Source: PIGEO
21%
electricity
19% (ca. 32.4 TWh)
7% (ca. 10.6 TWh)
57%
heat &
cooling
50%

investments
17%
12.0%
29%
20%
transport
6%
In Total 9.5%
10%
In Total 15.5%
Which RES are working for the target?
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2010
Source: PIGEO
electricity
50%
7%
25%
co-firing
large hydro
heat &
cooling
12.0%
transport
6%
In Total 9.5%
95%
100%
from biomass
off-grid
1st generation
of biofuels
Green
certificates
supported
The scenarios of RES
Poland vs UE
2010 vs 2020
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RES (all sectors) vs RES electricity
dane: PIGEO na podstawie MG, KPD, REN21
35
30
OZE
UEEN
RES
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OZE
-elektr UE EN
RES-electr
25
% 20
21
20
15
10
12
5
2010
2020
The scenarios of RES
Poland vs UE 2010 vs 2020
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RES (all sectors) vs RES electricity
dane: PIGEO na podstawie MG, KPD, REN21
35
OZE
PL PL
RES
30
OZE
-elektr PL PL
RES-electr
25
% 20
19
15
10
5
15,5
9,5
7
2010
2020
The scenarios of RES
Poland vs UE 2010 vs 2020
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Source: PIGEO based on MG, NREAP, REN21
35
30
25
%
RES (all sectors) vs RES electricity
RES PL
RES EU
RES-electr PL
RES-electr EU
20
15
10
5
2010
2020
An example of wrong design of obligations in
the draft regulation - here are the net values
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The level of obligation in each year for energy companies,
below:
There is a different methodology for
calculating the share in comparison to
the Directive and NREAP
In regulation we have: RES gross / Total net
In Directive we have: RES gross / Total gross
That is why the 19 from NREAP
corresponds to 25% and not to 20% !!!
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Can Poland develop renewables in
electricity sector without any
significant impact on consumer
energy bills?
What is the level of subsidizes to the development of RES in
Poland at present? What final customer of energy pays for?
Typical household, G11 tariff in 2011, annual consumption 3000 kWh
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Source: PIGEO based on bill for G11 from PGE company
In total:
All fees and
taxes
91
PLN/month
153 PLN / month
612 PLN / MWh
VAT = 115 PLN/MWh (18.7%)
Subscription fee = 4 PLN/MWh (0.7%)
Fixed fee for the transmission = 12 PLN/MWh (2%)
Interim payment fee = 18 PLN/MWh (3%)
Network fee = 186 PLN / MWh (30.3%)
Qualitative component = 7 PLN/MWh (1.1%)
Excise tax = 20 PLN/MWh (3.3%)
Product
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PLN/mo
nth
7 PLN/month
Electricity net = 250 PLN/MWh (40.9%)
Green certificates = 28 PLN/MWh (4.5%)
What is real impact of new RES for such a consumer?
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Source: PIGEO based on bill for G11 from PGE company
if the following RES
are excluded form
support:
•biomass cofired
•large hydro
28 PLN/MWh
4,5% of the bill
7 PLN per month
7 PLN/MWh
1,1% of the bill
1,75 PLN per month
The increase of electricity price in the period of 2005-2010
the maximum possible due to RES vs
real average done by energy
companies
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source: PIGEO based on ARE & URE
gr / kWh
13.2 gr / kWh
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12
10
8
50% of energy price in 2010
6
4
2
2.8 gr / kWh
10% of energy price in 2010
0
Green certificates do not represent the main reason of increase the electricity prices for
end users!
Recommendation
To introduce in the Law on Renewables a stable support schemes
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Green certificates with poorly designed sizes of reference do not
provide the level of income replacement fee.
Support should be fixed for a specified period from the day the
unit to be used (typically 15-20 years), which for the
implementation of the Directive is to support the functioning of at
least 2035 to 2040
The introduction of support for all sectors to increase the
competitiveness of the renewable energy market.
Any changes to the support system can not change the terms of
the generators operating on the market.
Is it possible to predict income based on renewable
energy draft Act?
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Source: PIGEO based on draft Act on RES
(Ozj-Oze)*k + Oze
Unitary revenue (PLN/MWh)
800
700
600
500
PV, k=2
biogas, k=1.4
hydro, k=1.05
400
wind, k=0.75
300
200
‘old’ hydro,
k=0 (no support)
There should not
be certificates with
negative prices
100
Oze, average annual market price of electricity (PLN/MWh)
Summary
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Investors expect the introduction of regulations that reflect the
energy strategies that are adopted:
• Polish Energy Policy
• National Renewable Energy Action Plan
Thank you for your attention
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Polish Economic Chamber of
Renewable Energy
ul. Gotarda 9,
02-683 Warszawa
Tel. +48 22 548 49 99,
Fax +48 22 548 49 00
[email protected]
www.pigeo.org.pl