Transcript Document
2010 NGA Regional Market Trends Forum Moving the Marcellus: National Fuel Infrastructure Plans Jeffrey Schauger GENERAL MANAGER INTERSTATE MARKETING NATIONAL FUEL GAS SUPPLY CORPORATION Safe Harbor for Forward Looking Statements This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects, plans, performance and capital structure, anticipated capital expenditures and completion of construction projects, as well as statements that are identified by the use of the words “anticipates,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,” “intends,” “plans,” “predicts,” “projects,” “believes,” “seeks,” “will,” “may,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. The Company’s expectations, beliefs and projections contained herein are expressed in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that such expectations, beliefs or projections will result or be achieved or accomplished. In addition to other factors, the following are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from results referred to in the forward-looking statements: changes in economic conditions, including economic disruptions caused by terrorist activities, acts of war or major accidents, and downturns in economic activity including national or regional recessions; changes in demographic patterns and weather conditions, including the occurrence of severe weather such as hurricanes; changes in the availability and/or price of natural gas or oil and the effect of such changes on the accounting treatment of derivative financial instruments or the valuation of the Company’s natural gas and oil reserves; uncertainty of oil and gas reserve estimates; ability to successfully identify, drill for and produce economically viable natural gas and oil reserves, including shortages, delays or unavailability of equipment and services required in drilling operations; significant changes from expectations in the Company’s actual production levels for natural gas or oil; changes in the availability and/or price of derivative financial instruments; changes in the price differentials between various types of oil; inability to obtain new customers or retain existing ones; significant changes in competitive factors affecting the Company; changes in laws and regulations to which the Company is subject, including changes in tax, environmental, safety and employment laws and regulations; governmental/regulatory actions, initiatives and proceedings, including those involving acquisitions, financings, rate cases (which address, among other things, allowed rates of return, rate design and retained gas), affiliate relationships, industry structure, franchise renewal, and environmental/safety requirements; unanticipated impacts of restructuring initiatives in the natural gas and electric industries; significant changes from expectations in actual capital expenditures and operating expenses and unanticipated project delays or changes in project costs or plans; the nature and projected profitability of pending and potential projects and other investments, and the ability to obtain necessary governmental approvals and permits; occurrences affecting the Company’s ability to obtain funds from operations, from borrowings under our credit lines or other credit facilities or from issuances of other shortterm notes or debt or equity securities to finance needed capital expenditures and other investments, including any downgrades in the Company’s credit ratings; ability to successfully identify and finance acquisitions or other investments and ability to operate and integrate existing and any subsequently acquired business or properties; impairments under the SEC’s full cost ceiling test for natural gas and oil reserves; changes in the market price of timber and the impact such changes might have on the types and quantity of timber harvested by the Company; significant changes in tax rates or policies or in rates of inflation or interest; significant changes in the Company’s relationship with its employees or contractors and the potential adverse effects if labor disputes, grievances or shortages were to occur; changes in accounting principles or the application of such principles to the Company; the cost and effects of legal and administrative claims against the Company or activist shareholder campaigns to effect changes at the Company; changes in actuarial assumptions and the return on assets with respect to the Company’s retirement plan and post-retirement benefit plans; increasing health care costs and the resulting effect on health insurance premiums and on the obligation to provide post-retirement benefits; or increasing costs of insurance, changes in coverage and the ability to obtain insurance. For a discussion of these risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from results referred to in the forward-looking statements, see “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2009 and and the Company’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2009. The Company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. National Fuel Gas Company Principal Businesses National Fuel Gas Company E&P Seneca Resources Corporation Midstream National Fuel Gas Midstream Corporation P&S National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation & Empire Pipeline Utility Energy Mktg National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation National Fuel Resources, Inc. Timber Highland Forest Resources, Inc. and NE Division of Seneca Resources Corp. LDC: ~725,000 Customers NY and PA PL&S: ~3,000 Miles of Pipeline, 60,000+ hp Own/Operate 27 Fields; Co-Own/Operate 4 Fields Storage Capacity ~78 bcf ~1,000,000 Acres of Development Rights Owned by NE Division of Seneca Resources Niagara TCPL Interconnects: Empire Pipeline Niagara, Chippawa CANADA Chippawa Empire Connector Corning Interconnects: Empire, Millennium Lake Lake Erie Erie Independence Corning Millennium NY Tuscarora Storage PA Ellisburg Ellisburg Interconnects: TGP, DTI Leidy Leidy Interconnects: Transco, TETCO, DTI National Fuel Gas Company Bristoria Interconnect: TETCO – M2 OH PA National Fuel’s Strategic Location Lake Lake Ontario Ontario NFGSC System Storages NFGSC System Pipelines Empire State Pipeline Interconnects Marcellus Shale –What We Know Recoverable portion > 95,000 sq mi Depth 5,000 ft + Thickness 50 ft – 250 ft Potentially the largest natural gas field in the U.S. with recoverable reserves estimated in the 100’s of TCFs BTU – Varies based on location Marcellus Shale Overview The Key- Advances in directional drilling maximizes surface area for gas to escape formation Close to the Market Low breakeven costs Marcellus Shale play is vast – and it’s still early Marcellus Shale Increasing Production Activity NFGSC Producer Interconnect Requests # of Requested Taps 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Calendar Year 2008 2009 2010 = 2010 estimate based on total YTD requests Trends & Observations… “Pipeline Geology” key driver in current drilling locations Significant gas supply being added to large long-haul pipes: - TGP, TETCO, TCO, DTI, NFG The Interstate Pipeline System Downstream of Storage (Ellisburg/Leidy and Oakford) is at Capacity Market will grow (subject to many factors), but won’t match increase in gas supply in market area Shift in flows due not only to Marcellus, but effects of REX, LNG, and other shale plays National Fuel Gas PL&S Infrastructure Expansion Plans Horsepower Expansions Lamont Line N/Holbrook West to East (“W2E”) Pipeline Phases I and II Storage Expansion Empire’s Tioga County Extension Northern Access Expansion PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE Lamont Compressor Station LINE “N” EXPANSION WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 APPALACHIAN LATERAL Planned Capacity 40,000 Dth/d Planned Compression 1,150 HP Anticipated In-Service Date June 2010 Estimated CAPEX Investment ~$6 MM Construction under FERC Blanket Certificate 13 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE Line “N” Expansion LINE “N” EXPANSION WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 APPALACHIAN LATERAL Planned Capacity 150,000 Dth/d Planned Compression Anticipated In-Service Date Estimated CAPEX Investment 4,700 HP November 2011 $23 MM Preparing FERC Application for April Filing 14 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE West to East – Phases I & II LINE “N” EXPANSION WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 APPALACHIAN LATERAL Planned Combined Capacity 425,000 Dth/d Anticipated In-Service (Phase I) November 2011 Anticipated In-Service (Phase II) November 2012 Estimated CAPEX Investment $260 MM Ongoing post-open season negotiations 15 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE East Branch & Galbraith Storage Expansion LINE “N” EXPANSION WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 APPALACHIAN LATERAL Planned Capacity 7.9 Bcf Planned Compression 11,245 HP Anticipated In-Service Date April 2013 Estimated CAPEX Investment $64 MM 35 New Wells & 12.4 Miles of Pipe 17 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, Basis Differential Shift Dominion South Point - Niagara Basis Differential Avg. 0.254 Avg. 0.119 Estimates Derived from Forward Basis Numbers Avg. 0.122 Avg. 0.092 May-08 Feb-08 Nov-07 Aug-07 May-07 Feb-07 Nov-06 Aug-06 May-06 Feb-06 Avg. (0.07) Feb/Mar 10 Sum10 Sum11 Win10/11 PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE LINE “N” EXPANSION WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 APPALACHIAN LATERAL Tioga County Extension Planned Capacity >300,000 Dth/d Anticipated In-Service Date September 2011 Estimated CAPEX Investment $45 MM 2 Producer Commitments 19 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, Tioga County Expansion “Northern Access” Expansion Project Compression at Ellisburg and East Aurora C Modifications to Niagara Spur Pipeline System C South-to-North Transportation Path Marcellus Shale Key Transportation Challenges Gas Quality/Interchangeability Creditworthiness of Producers to Support New Facilities Matching Project timelines with drilling timelines Shifting Pipeline Grid Dynamics & Valuation Varying producer risk tolerances Keeping up with IC requests On the Horizon…. New supply areas will crowd out traditional ones All bets off with regard to traditional flows, basis, and commodity pricing Certain oversupplied producing areas/pipes could see price bloodletting Canadian markets will soon gain access to Marcellus supply Utilities: encouraged by proliferation of Marcellus gas and beginning to adjust portfolios Large need for midstream/gathering infrastructure Eventually downstream expansion projects will be built – expensive - but starting to see some of this Thank You Please visit us at www.nationalfuelgas.com