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ADVANCED MOMENTUM WORLD DOMINANCE CATALOGUE OF CYCLES COMMODITY PRICES 40 MONTH CYCLE DIVIDEND YIELDS ZIPF’S LAW TRIADS ONE BASE CYCLE TWO THREE TREND CYCLE TERMINAL CYCLE THE WEB IS A BOW TIE WHERE ARE WE? 17% 50% 83% 1 3 B 3/6 5/6 1/6 4/6 2/6 0 0% 2 33% A 67% C 100% RELATIONSHIP - ECONOMIC CYCLES RESEARCHER PERIOD (YEARS) AVERAGE RELATIONSHIPS KITCHEN 3 T0 5 3.33 JUGLAR 7 TO 11 10 3*KITCHEN KUZNETS 20 TO 25 BERRY 25 TO 35 30 3*JUGLAR/9*KITCHEN KONDRATYEV 45 TO 60 STRAUSS AND HOWE 85 TO 99 90 3*BERRY/9*JUGLAR HUMAN EXCITABILITY CYCLE – A J TCHIJEVSKY 3 YEARS 2 YEARS 3 YEARS 4 YEARS MINIMUM EXCITABILITY MAXIMUM DECREASE EXCITABILITY GROWS EXCITABILITY IN RIOTS EXCITABILITY Fear Tolerance INERT Passiveness APATHETIC Lack of unity CRY FOR PEACE FAITH AND BANK DEPOSIT CYCLES FAITH 9 YRS 9 YRS 9 YRS DEPOSITS VOLATILITY - VIX MUTUAL FUNDS CASH/ASSET RATIO REDEFINING SECTOR ROTATION EARLY ECONOMIC CYCLE MIDDLE ECONOMIC CYCLE LATE ECONOMIC CYCLE REDEFINING SECTOR ROTATION REGULARITY IMPLIES PREDICTABILITY Speculation and War - ERD THE 9.6 YEAR CYCLE Number of Atlantic Salmon Abundance of snowshoe rabbits in Canada Heart Diseases in Northwestern US Grasshopper outbreak Pine cones are plentiful in cycle People join churches in cycles Women are amorous in cycles Sunspots erupt in greater numbers in cycles Poets are more creative in cycles Weather fluctuates in cycles International battles fluctuation in cycles Stocks and indices fluctuate in cycles SCIENCE WITHOUT CYCLES IS INCOMPLETE- ERD Murder, 6PM-6AM, High Jul and Aug Burglary, 6PM-2AM, Saturday night, Dec/Jan/Feb The most uncriminal month of all – May But more dog bites Jun is peak month for suicides Admission to mental hospitals Also peak month for marriages The number of earthquakes fluctuate in cycles Real estate activities fluctuate in cycles Male emotion Industrial accidents Advertising effectiveness fluctuates in cycles Even political landslide and number of infants born per day MOMENTUM CONVENTIONAL AND NON CONVENTIONAL TECHNICQUES OF FORECASTING CONCEPT - THE BASIC PREMISE MOMENTUM – DEFINITION BASIC MOMENTUM RULES CHARACTERISTICS – VOLATILITIES/ EXTREMES/DIVERGENCES INTERPRETATION - SIGNALS CLASSIFICATION - BANDED/NON BANDED CONSTRUCTION - SPECIFICATIONS MISCONCEPTIONS - 0 TO 100 CYCLICALITY - OSCILLATOR PERIODICITY - DEFAULT/GENERATED SETUPS - MAC2/STOCH2/R3/COMPOSITE PRICE PROJECTIONS USING RSI - POSITIVE N NEGATIVE REVERSALS/RE-ENGINEERING SUMMARY- MOMENTUM GRID CONCEPT - THE BASIC PREMISE CONVENTIONALISM TREND DETERMINATION CONCERNS PRICE/TRENDLINES/PRICE PATTERNS AND MOVING AVERAGES THOUGH USEFUL, TREND IDENTIFICATION HAPPENS AFTER THE TREND CHANGE TAKES PLACE MOMENTUM ON THE OTHER HAND WARNS OF LATENT STRENGTH/WEAKNESS OFTEN WELL AHEAD OF THE TURN RULE – MOMENTUM ANALYSIS SHOULD BE USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH TREND REVERSAL SIGNAL FROM PRICE OSCILLATOR USAGE IN CONJUNCTION OF TREND “SKILL OF JUGEMENT AND INTEPRETATION MARK THE LINE IN THE SAND THAT SEPERATES THE RETAIL TRADER FROM THE PROFESSIONAL” – CONSTANCE BROWN NON CONVENTIONAL VOLATILITY COMES FROM INDEPENDENT MASS OF RETAIL TRADERS LONG LIST OF INDICATORS AVAILABLE OVERWHELM THIS LEADS TO INDICATOR FAILURE AND CAPITAL EROSION HOW TO AVOID THIS AND USE FOR ADVANTAGE? INDICATORS FOR TRENDING MARKETS LIKE MOVING AVERAGES AND THEN INDICATORS FOR NON TRENDING MARKETS SUCH AS OSCILLATORS ARE NOW OUTDATED MOMENTUM – DEFINITION VELOCITY OF A PRICE TREND ACCELERATION OR DEACCELERATION MOMENTUM A MISNOMER, AS IT’S A GENERIC TERM A FLUCTUATING LINE THAT IS CONTINUALLY OSCILLATING FROM ONE EXTREME TO ANOTHER ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS OSCILLATE SO WE CAN CALL THEM OSCILLATORS OSCILLATION OF EMOTIONS AND PSYCHOLOGY – GREED TO FEAR, HOPE TO DESPAIR JUXTAPOSE SENTIMENT INDICATOR WITH MOMENTUM SHOWS SIMILARITY MOMENTUM ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT MARKET SENTIMENT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS THE ART OF IDENTIFYING TREND REVERSALS AT A RELATIVELY EARLY STAGE AND RIDING THAT REVERSE TREND UNTIL THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE PROVES OTHERWISE CONSENSUS INDEX OF BULLISH MARKET OPINION BASIC MOMENTUM RULES 1: THE OSCILLATOR IS MOST USEFUL WHEN IT REACHES AN EXTREME READING – OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD Price RON Q.BETFI, Last Trade, HiLoCl Bar 4/30/2007 66,593.19 57,740.36 66,395.27 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 RSI RON 90 Q.BETFI, Close(Last Trade), RSI 14 4/30/2007 74.557 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2000 2001 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2002 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2003 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2004 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2005 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2006 Dec Mar Jun 2007 Price RON Q.BETFI, Last Trade, HiLoCl Bar 4/30/2007 66,593.19 57,740.36 66,395.27 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 RSI RON 90 Q.BETFI, Close(Last Trade), RSI 14 4/30/2007 74.557 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2000 2001 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2002 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2003 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2004 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2005 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2006 Dec Mar Jun 2007 Price RON Q.BETFI, Last Trade, HiLoCl Bar 4/30/2007 66,593.19 57,740.36 66,395.27 60000 50000 -29% 512% -31% 40000 30000 20000 145% -31% 73% 10000 0 RSI RON 90 Q.BETFI, Close(Last Trade), RSI 14 4/30/2007 74.557 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2000 2001 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2002 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2003 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2004 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2005 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2006 Dec Mar Jun 2007 BASIC MOMENTUM RULES 2: DIVERGENCE BETWEEN OSCILLATOR AND PRICE WHEN OSCILLATOR IS AN EXTREME – IMPORTANT WARNING Price RON QSNPP.BX, Last Trade, HiLoCl Bar 4/30/2007 0.5750 0.4950 0.5550 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 RSI RON QSNPP.BX, Close(Last Trade), RSI 14 4/30/2007 49.788 88 84 80 76 72 68 64 60 56 52 Sep Dec 2001 Mar Jun 2002 Sep Dec Mar Jun 2003 Sep Dec Mar Jun 2004 Sep Dec Mar Jun 2005 Sep Dec Mar Jun 2006 Sep Dec Mar Jun 2007 Price RON QBATR.BX, Last Trade, HiLoCl Bar 4/30/2007 1.1100 1.0400 1.1000 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 RSI RON QBATR.BX, Close(Last Trade), RSI 14 4/30/2007 67.668 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 Dec Jun 1998 Dec Jun 1999 Dec Jun 2000 Dec Jun 2001 Dec Jun 2002 Dec Jun 2003 Dec Jun 2004 Dec Jun 2005 Dec Jun 2006 Dec Jun 2007 RSI RON 100 95 Price RON QSIF2.BX, Close(Last Trade), Line 4/29/2007 3.2000 QSIF2.BX, Close(Last Trade), RSI 14 4/29/2007 63.692 3.6 3.5 3.4 90 3.3 85 3.2 80 3.1 75 3 70 2.9 65 2.8 60 2.7 55 2.6 2.5 -26% 50 45 2.4 40 2.3 2.2 35 2.1 30 2 25 1.9 20 1.8 15 1.7 10 1.6 5 25 04 14 24 Jul 06 Aug 06 03 13 23 Sep 06 03 13 23 Oct 06 02 12 22 Nov 06 02 12 22 Dec 06 01 11 21 Jan 07 31 10 20 Feb 07 02 12 22 Mar 07 01 11 21 Apr 07 01 11 21 May 07 BASIC MOMENTUM RULES 3.THE CROSSING OF THE ZERO LINE (MID POINT) CAN GIVE IMPORTANT TRADING SIGNALS IN TREND DIRECTION Price RON +52% 60000 55000 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 MACD RON 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 -1000 -2000 Oct Jan 2000 Apr Jul Oct 2001 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2002 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2003 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2004 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2005 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2006 Jan Apr Jul 2007 Price RON +32% 3.3 3 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0 MACD RON 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1 Jan 1999 May Sep 2000 Jan May Sep 2001 Jan May Sep 2002 Jan May Sep 2003 Jan May Sep 2004 Jan May Sep 2005 Jan May Sep 2006 Jan May 2007 Price RON Log 3.1 +19% QSIF2.BX, Last Trade, HiLoCl Bar 4/23/2007 12:00:00 PM 3.2000 3.1900 3.2000 3.05 3 2.95 2.9 2.85 2.84 2.8 2.76 2.72 2.68 2.64 2.6 2.56 ROC RON QSIF2.BX, Close(Last Trade), Rate of Change 12 4/23/2007 12:00:00 PM 107.38 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 19 20 21 22 23 26 Mar 07 27 28 29 30 02 03 04 05 06 10 11 12 13 Apr 07 16 17 18 19 20 23 24 Price RON TLV.ZILNIC CHARACTERISTICS 0.8 0.6 KEEP IN MIND THE TYPE OF TREND YOU ARE ANALYSING 0.4 0.2 RSI RON OIL TANKER VS SPORTS CAR 80 LONGER TERM MOMENTUM HAS MORE SIGNIFICANCE 60 THAN SHORT TERM MOMENTUM 40 INTERMEDIATE TREND REMAINS KEY FOR TRADING/ INVESTMENT Jul Oct 2004 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2005 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2006 Jan Apr Jul 2007 UNDERSTANDING TREND DURATION REMAINS KEY Price RON SHORT TERM MOMENTUM OVER LONG TERM MOMENTUM 0.8 MARK EXTREMES 0.6 0.4 0.2 RSI RON 90 80 TLV.SAPTAMANAL 70 Dec Apr Aug 2004 Dec Apr Aug 2005 Dec Apr Aug 2006 Dec Apr 2007 CHARACTERISTICS AND MAGNITUDE OF AN OSCILLATOR SWING DEPENDS ON A: NATURE OF THE FORMULA B: THE VOLATILITY OF THE SECURITY BEING MONITORED C: THE TIME SPAND BEING USED EXAMPLE: NOT POSSIBLE TO COMPARE OSCILLATOR OF A DOCILE UTILITY STOCK WITH A MINING STOCK EARNINGS OF MINING COMPANY MORE TOUGH TO PREDICT UNDERLYING VOLATILITY HIGHER IN MINING COMPANIES INVESTOR PROFILE MORE STABLE FOR UTILITY COMPANY THAN FOR MINING COMPANY TEL.ZILNIC Price RON Log Price RON ALRO.ZILNIC 6 4 28 2 24 Volty RON Volty RON 40 150 100 20 50 0 Sep Oct Nov 2006 Dec Jan Feb Mar 2007 Apr Jan Jul 2002 Jan Jul 2003 Jan Jul 2004 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2005 2006 2007 CHARACTERISTICS OSCILLATORS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TRENDS TEND TO COVER LONGER DISTANCE THAN OTHERWISE MEGAOVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS EARLY SIGN OF A BULLISH TREND ONLY TIME TO OPEN LONG POSITION DESPITE OVERBOUGHT CONDITION AND VICE VERSA Price RON Log Price RON Log 0.3 0.05 RSI RON POLICOLOR.LUNAR RSI RON OLT.LUNAR 60 60 40 40 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 20 98 07 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Price RON Log RSI RON 60 0.1 40 PETROM.WEEKLY 0.05 20 RSI RON Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 BETFI.WEEKLY Price RON 60 40000 40 20000 0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CHARACTERISTICS PRICE AND INDICATOR - IN GEAR AND OUT OF GEAR DEFINES DIVERGENCE MARKETS SPEND MOST OF THEIR TIME ADVANCING RATHER THAN DECLINING LEAD CHARACTERSTICS MORE PRONOUNCES AT MARKET PEAKS THAN TROUGHS “MARKETS ARE LIKE HOUSES, THEY TAKE LONGER TO BUILD THAN THEY DO TO TEAR DOWN” – MARTIN PRING Price RON +130% 0.4 0.2 0 RSI RON 60 40 AZO.LUNAR 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CHARACTERISTICS DIVERGENCE WITHOUT PRICE CONFIRMATION DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHING PRICE AND MOMENTUM DYNAMICS. UP/DOWN, DOWN/UP Price RON 0.4 0.3 0.2 RSI RON 60 40 20 SOCP.WEEKLY 0 Jan Jul 2003 Jul 2004 Jan Jul 2005 Jan Jul 2006 Jan [Delayed] 20 CHARACTERISTICS GREATER THE NUMBER OF DIVERGENCES THE MORE SERIOUS THE CONSEQUENCES OF A REVERSAL Price RON TLV.WEEKLY 0.6 0.3 0 RSI RON 80 70 60 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07[Delayed] CHARACTERISTICS Price RON DIVERGENCE SIGNIFICANCE. NUMBER 0.6 0.3 TIME SPAN BETWEEN THEM RSI RON 90 CLOSENESS TO EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL EXAMPLE OF A CAR OR A SICK PERSON 80 TLV.MONTHLY 70 GREATER THE SEPERATION TIME, GREATER THE SIGNIFICANCE Aug Dec 2003 ROC RON 400 Price RON Apr Aug Dec 2004 TLV.WEEKLY Apr Aug Dec 2005 Apr Aug 2006 Dec A [Delayed] 200 Price RON 3 360 2.7 320 2.4 280 2.1 ? 240 200 0.3 1.8 RSI RON 1.5 80 1.2 160 0.6 60 0.9 120 0.6 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2005 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2006 Dec Ma[Delayed] 200 40 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr[Delayed] 2004 2005 2006 200 CHARACTERISTICS Price RON THE DIVERGENCE TRAP FINAL BURST UP WITH UNANTICIPATED NEWS THAT EVEN CAUSES SHORT COVERING 0.1 0.09 0.08 ROC RON 110 100 RRC.DAILY 90 09 16 23 Nov 06 30 08 15 Dec 06 05 12 19 26 Jan 07 02 09 16 23 [Delayed] Feb 07 INTERPRETATION – SIGNALS SIMULTANEOUS BREAKOUTS ARE VERY EFFECTIVE, GENERALLY SEPERATE Price RON LENGTH/NUMBER OF TIMES/ANGLE 3 TRENDLINES WORK ON MOMENTUM TOO 42% EXTENDED TRENDLINE RETEST -18% 2 -36% 1 MACD RON 0 -0.1 SIF5.WEEKLY Apr Jul 2005 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2006 Oct Jan Apr 2007 [Delayed] Price RON 0.8 -11% 24% 0.6 0.4 0.2 MACD RON 0.02 TLV.WEEKLY 0 -0.02 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2004 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr [Delayed] 2005 2006 200 INTERPRETATION – SIGNALS Price RON TRENDLINE PRICE OBJECTIVES 60000 50000 40000 RSI RON 60 40 BETFI.DAILY Aug 20 Sep Oct 2006 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2007 May INTERPRETATION – SIGNALS RSI RON PRICE PATTERNS RARE BUT EFFECTIVE MORE IN ROC AND LESS IN RSI 60 PRINCIPLE OF COMMONALITY 40 HEAD AND SHOULDER 20 S S H +106% Price RON 2.4 2.2 2 SIF5.DAILY 21 02 Apr 06 1.8 09 16 23 May 06 30 06 13 20 Jun 06 27 04 11 18 25 Jul 06 [Delayed] INTERPRETATION – SIGNALS PRICE PATTERNS – DOUBLE BOTTOM RSI RON 60 40 B1 RRC.DAILY B2 +31% 20 Price RON 0.1 0.08 0.06 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2004 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2005 Apr Jul Oct Jan A [Delayed] 2006 200 INTERPRETATION – SIGNALS PRICE PATTERNS – HEAD AND SHOULDER H S S RSI RON 60 40 HISTORICAL TOP SNP.WEEKLY Price RON 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Sep Nov 2004 Jan Mar May Jul 2005 Sep Nov Jan 20 [Delayed] INTERPRETATION – SIGNALS PEAK AND TROUGH ANALYSIS Price RON ADVANCE BREAKDOWNS AND BREAKOUTS 0.1 0.08 0.06 RRC.DAILY PNT SELL AND ADVANCED BREAKDOWN MACD RON 0.004 0 -0.004 -0.008 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2004 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2005 Apr Jul Oct Jan A[Delayed] 2006 20 INTERPRETATION – SIGNALS MOVING AVERAGE/ CROSSOVER/ DIRECTIONAL CHANGE/ OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD/ EQUILBRIUM CROSSOVER MARSI RON Price RON Log SIF5.WEEKLY 80 75 70 2 65 60 1.4 55 1.2 50 1 45 0.8 40 35 0.6 Oct Jan 2004 Apr Jul Oct 2005 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2006 Jan A [Delayed] 200 Price RON 0.1 0.08 94% -30% 29% -43% 37% 0.06 ROC RON 150 120 90 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2004 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2005 Apr Jul Oct Jan A [Delayed] 2006 200 Price RON SIF5.DAILY 3 2.5 2 MACD RON 0 -0.1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2006 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 [Delayed] CLASSIFICATION - BANDED RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX RSI RON FAILURE SWING TIME SPANS 60 40 20 Price RON 3 2 1 Jul Oct 2005 Jan Apr Jul 2006 Oct Jan Apr 2007 [Delayed] Price USD MISCONCEPTIONS - 0 TO 100 3.2 3 RSI USD COFFEE.ETC 60 40 Oct Nov 2006 Dec Jan Feb Mar 2007 Apr May MISCONCEPTIONS - 0 TO 100 Price RON 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 SIF2.30MIN RSI RON 60 40 20 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 07 14 21 28 04 12 19 26 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 MISCONCEPTIONS - 0 TO 100 Price RON Log SNP 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 RSI RON 60 40 20 Apr Jul 2005 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2006 Oct Jan Apr 2007 Price RON Log CYCLICALITY - OSCILLATOR TLV 0.6 0.5 0.4 RSI RON 60 40 20 0 Apr Jul 2005 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2006 Oct Jan Apr 2007 CYCLICALITY - OSCILLATOR Price RON Log TEL 30 27 24 RSI RON 60 40 Sep Oct Nov 2006 Dec Jan Feb Mar 2007 Apr May CYCLICALITY - OSCILLATOR Price RON RRC 0.1 0.08 0.06 RSI RON 60 40 20 Apr Jul Oct 2004 Jan Apr Jul 2005 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2006 Oct Jan Apr 2007 PERIODICITY - DEFAULT/GENERATED Price RON Log SIF2 0.2 0.1 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 PERIODICITY – DEFAULT (5) Price RON Log SIF2 0.2 Stoch RON 60 40 20 0 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 PERIODICITY - DEFAULT/GENERATED SIF2 Price RON Log 0.2 0.1 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Price RON Log PERIODICITY – GENERATED (100) SIF2 0.2 Stoch RON 60 40 20 0 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Prepared by Mukul Pal This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. 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