Transcript Слайд 1 - Air Bridge Cargo Airlines

DENIS ILYIN, Senior Vice-President
for Strategy & Commercial
Moscow, Russia
18.06.08
Development of
Cargo Aircraft Market in Russia
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Average annual
growth
2005-2025
World Air Freight Market Will Grow 6.2% Year Through 2025
RTKs, billions
800
History
Forecast
High
High
Base
Low
Base
Low
7.1%
6.2%
5.4%
600
400
5.3% growth
per year
200
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast
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Average World Air Cargo Freight growth, 6.2%
Domestic China
Intra-Asia
Asia-North America
Europe-Asia
Latin America-North America
Latin America-Europe
Europe-North America
Europe-Africa
Intra-Europe
Europe-Middle East
North America
Russia
Average Growth in %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast
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Air Cargo Market for non ramp
aircraft
Scheduled Services
1879 Aircraft
~98,5%$78,8 billion
Air Cargo Market for ramp
aircraft
Total volume in 2007г
~ $80 billion
190 billion tons / kilometer
41 mln tons
DC-10, MD-11
Charter Services
479 AC ~1,4%
$1 billion
Ил-76
A-300-330
Ан-12
Ил-96
Ту-204
Ан-124-100
B-747
C-130
311 AC В747F
$30 billion per year (2007)
~ 38% market share
28 AC An-124-100
$771 mln per year (2007)
~ 70% market share
Market Growth Forecast (2020):
- On Non ramp Aircraft – 6%-6,2% (according to Boeing, Airbus, IATA)
- On Ramp Aircraft – 8%-10% (according to Volga-Dnepr Group’s forecast)
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Scheduled cargo operations market (2007)
Ramp aircraft operations market 2007
$80 billion
$1 billion
Asian and
Pacific
Region
countries
1,4 %
Russian civil
aviation
1,4 %
European
countries
24%
Russian
civil
aviation
74 %
other
countries
7,6 %
USA
31%
Ukraine and other
countries
26%
By 2020 Russian transport aviation development strategy specifies:
1.
Increase in dominant position of ramp aircraft cargo operations (from 74% up to 90%). Already now Russian cargo air
carriers play the role of international military-cargo airlines. With all that US, European and UNO show the growing need
in the services of Russian ramp aircraft air carriers.
2.
Expansion on the market of general cargo transportation and share growth on this market (from 1% up to 10%) .
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2008
2020
Charter
Services
≥ 100 tons; 16; 11%
An-124
≤10tons;
91; 63%
An-124
30-100 tons;
15; 10%
Il-76
Il-76
10-30 Tons;
28; 16%
Total Number of Aircraft in use 171
10-30 tons; 3;
14%
Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (136 aircraft)
212
Total Number of Aircraft required 207
≤ 10 tons;
8; 11%
≥ 100 tons; 12; 16%
≤10 tons;
3; 14%
30-100 tons;
41; 31%
Medium 10-30
Tons; 12; 9%
Current Ramp Cargo Fleet (150 aircraft)
Scheduled
Services
≥ 100 tons; 55; 39%
≤10 tons;
28; 21%
В747F
B 747
10-30 Tons;
30-100 tons;
5; 24%
6; 29%
≥100 tons; 12;
57%
30-100 tons; 1; 16%
Current Non Ramp Cargo Fleet (21 aircraft)
≥100 tons;
25; 32%
≥ 100 tons; 20; 27%
В747F
B 747
30-100 tons;
19; 26%
≤10 tons;
8; 11%
10-30 Tons;
24; 36%
10-30 tons;
24; 32%
30-100 tons;
19; aircraft)
25%
Non Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (92
Source: Volga-Dnepr Group Forecast
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Other
Countries
98,7%
Other
Countries
98,6%
2004
2007
Russia 1,4%
Total volume
$55 billion
Russia 1,3%
Total volume
$80 billion
Other
Countries
92,0%
2015
Other
Countries
84,0%
Total volume
$105 billion
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Russia 8,0%
Market volume
$160 billion
2030
Russia 16,0%
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DC-10, MD-11
USA
Canada
Moscow
Europe
USA
Khabarovsk
Krasnoyarsk
Canada
St.Petersburg
Europe
Moscow
B-747, 777
Khabarovsk
Krasnoyarsk
China
China
Middle East,
Africa
India
Singapore
Moscow – natural geographical hub connecting Europe
to Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and South-East Asia
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India
Singapore
Krasnoyarsk – natural geographical hub connecting USA,
Europe & Canada to China, Japan and South-East Asia
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HOU
YYC
Moscow
ORD
NYC
Krasnoyarsk
LAX
AMS
LHR
FRA
MIL
UUS
NGO
LED
MOW
KJA
NRT
SHA
TLV
NBO
BJS
HKG
KUL
DEL
B 747-8F
SIN
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Total Aircraft
Aircraft Type
Delivery/Retirement Schedule
Current Status
2
2 x Boeing 747-200 (VP-BIA, BIB)
April 2004, July 2005
Retired in 2007-2008
3
1 x Boeing 747-300SF (VP-BIC)
October 2005
In Service
4
1 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BID)
June 2006 (NCA)
In Service
6
2 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BII, BIJ)
March 2007 (NCA)
In Service
5
2 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BIA)
September 2007
Retired in 2007
6
Boeing 747- 400ERF (VP-BIG)
October 2007 (Boeing)
In Service
8
Boeing 747-400ERF
February & April 2008 (Boeing)
In Service
7
Boeing 747-200 (VP-BIB)
March 2008
Retired in 2008
Boeing 747-8
2010-2013 (Boeing)
On Order
8-12
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Boeing 747-8F
Boeing 747 – 8F
Boeing 747-400 ERF
2 x Boeing 747-200
Boeing 747-200
2020
2010-13
+2
1 x Boeing 747 -400 ERF
+5
+5
2008
+3
Boeing 747-200
Boeing 747-200
+1
2007
Boeing 747-200
Boeing 747-200
+1
-1
2006
-1
2
2005
2004
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Cities with population more
than 1mln people
Regions of significant
economic growth
S. Petersburg
Moscow
Rostov on Don
Nizhny Novgorod
Kazan
Ufa
Samara
Chelyabinsk
Yekaterinburg
Omsk
Novosibirsk
Krasnoyarsk
Source: Ministry of Economic of RF
Federal State Statistics Service
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Ту-204
AirBridgeCargo Hubs
ABC Schedule Service
Air Feeder Service
B-737, 757, 767
Road Feeder Service
A320F, A330F
ST. PETERSBURG (LED)
MOSCOW (SVO)
Oil & Gas
Exploration fields
YUZHNOSAKHALINSK
(UUS)
KRASNOYARSK (KJA)
KHABAROVSK (KHV)
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nex
13
While Boeing 747 freighters offer capacity on long haul international routes, regional aircraft will complement
transcontinental services with local distribution capabilities. Tupolev 204C has been selected as the middle range aircraft
type to serve Russian domestic markets from ABC hubs in Moscow and Krasnoyarsk. In June 2007, two planes of this type
have been ordered with AVIASTAR-SP (Ulyanovsk, Russia), and 3 more are in plans until 2010
Aircraft
Aircraft Type
Delivery Schedule
Status
1-2
Tupolev-204C
2009 Quarter 1
In production
3-5
Tupolev-204C
Until 2010
On Option
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