Transcript Turbulence Nowcasting and Forecasting

Turbulence Diagnoses and
Forecasts
Bob Sharman
NCAR/RAL
Weather in the Cockpit Workshop
8 August 2006
FAA AWRP Turbulence PDT work areas
• Develop/implement in situ turbulence observations
– UAL, SWA, Delta
• Develop/implement remotely sensed turbulence
observations
– NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm
(NTDA)
• Develop turbulence nowcasting and forecasting
systems
– Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG)
– GTGN
• All products can be uplinked to the cockpit
In situ turbulence measurement and
reporting program
Goal: To augment/replace
subjective PIREPs with
objective and precise
turbulence measurements
Features:
• Automatically computes
atmospheric turbulence
intensities
• Aircraft independent (eddy
dissipation rate, EDR)
• Automatically downloads
data periodically during flight
using ACARS network
• Can convert EDR to aircraft
loads and vice versa given
information about aircraft
• Adopted as ICAO Standard
UAL in-situ
compared to pireps
NEXRAD in-cloud turbulence detection
algorithm (NTDA)
Graphic courtesy of
virtualskies.arc.nasa.gov
Cockpit display or radioed alert
EDR
Dispatch, ATC, etc.
TPAWS
NEXRAD or TDWR
In-cloud edr display
NTDA status
• Ongoing verification against in situ data
• Web-based display of NTDA product
• Successful demonstration last summer
of NTDA text graphic uplink to selected
UAL aircraft with character printer
In situ edr tracks
NTDA
edr
contours
EXP TURB FI UAL███████████
-- 20 Oct 2005 22:08:57Z
FL 360 orient. 95 deg
'X'=aircraft, '+'=waypoint, '*'=route
' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light
'M'=mod, 'S'=severe
---------(36nm to COWES)--------------llll l*MMMMMMll
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valid ----------------X---------------2205Z -40nm
(39.0N, 92.1W)
+40nm
severe
SFO-BWI 20 Oct 05
/EXPERIMENTAL TURBULENCE FI UAL███/AN N███UA UPLINK
-- 01 Jul 2006 22:08:10Z FL 360 orient. 88 deg
'+'=waypoint, '*'=route, 'X'=aircraft at 43.2N, 86.3W
' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light, 'M'=mod, 'S'=severe
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-------|---------valid----------X-------------------------90 +90|Left 40 2205Z
(86 from BAE)
Right 40
NTDA uplink message at 2208 UTC
NTDA turbulence display
at 2210 UTC
Radar at ~2215 UTC
(deviation began at 2213)
View toward left at about 2215 UTC
TPDT forecasting
• Graphical Turbulence
Guidance (GTG)
forecast product
– Combines many
turbulence
indicators +
observations
– Rapid updates
– 4D gridded output
– ADDS displays
– GTG2 early 2007
– GTG3 early 2010
GTG1
GTG4
GTG3
GTG2
GTG5
GTG4
Turbulence nowcasting - GTGN
Real-time pireps
GTG
0-1 hr forecast
Lightning
Real-time in situ
data
NTDA
Real-time
ACARS
winds/temp
Wind profilers
Satellite features
3D data cube of
observed/inferred
turbulence updated
every few minutes
Metars
Global GTG (TFO)
• Uses NOAA’s GFS
model
• Diagnoses and
forecasts of CAT >
FL200
• Experimental product
should be available by
early 2008
• Example:
– Upper: RUC20
– Lower: GFS
07/06/2005 CIT (>FL200 in situ)
Summary
• Enhanced situational awareness for tactical
decisions about turbulence avoidance can be
provided through uplinks to the cockpit
– In situ + pireps
– NTDA
AVAILABLE NOW!
– GTG
– GTGN (~ 5-10 min update)
• In-flight strategic planning can use GTG or TFO
– Updated consistent with WRF, GFS forecast
cycles
– Probabilistic forecasts
Demos…