Transcript Benchmark Comparison (Ozone)

Evaluation of MANE-VU CMAQ
Annual Modeling on PM2.5 Species
Shan He, John Graham, Jung-Hun Woo, Emily Savelli,
and Gary Kleiman
NESCAUM
Review of Application and Assessment of CMAQ in OTC
Albany, NY
November 16, 2005
Acknowledgement
Cooperative CMAQ modeling team members:
• NYDEC !
• NJDEP & Rutgers !
• UMD !
• VADEQ !
• and NESCAUM !
Outline
• Background
-
CMAQ modeling overview (meteorology, emission, CMAQ configuration)
-
Observations used in evaluation (STN, IMPROVE, CASTNET)
• Evaluation and Analysis
-
Performance on PM2.5 species (SO4, NO3, NH4, OC, EC,
Fine Soil, PM2.5)
-
CMAQ performance from other RPOs
-
Visibility parameters (Extinction Coefficient, and Haze Index)
-
PM2.5 composition on 20% best visibility days and 20% worst visibility
days at Class I areas in Northeastern U.S.
• Summary
CMAQ Modeling
•
CMAQ v4.4 (2004 Release) running on Linux Clusters
•
CB-IV gas-phase chemistry, EBI solver, AERO3 and AERO_DEPV2 module for
aerosol dynamics and aerosol deposition, RADM for cloud chemistry
•
Eastern U.S. domain from 66oW~94oW in longitude and 29oN~50oN in latitude
with 172X172 grid at 12km resolution and 22 vertical layers with the first level at
10m and a radiative upper-boundary condition at 50hPa
•
Dynamic boundary condition generated from annual CMAQ modeling on 36km
US domain which using boundary condition derived from global chemistry
model GEOS-CHEM
•
Meteorology generated by UMD running NCAR/PSU MM5 V3.6.1 using the
Blackadar high-resolution planetary boundary layer parameterization scheme,
Lambert Conformal map projection, and 29 vertical layers. MM5 meteorology
processed with MCIP for CMAQ input
•
Emission processed by SMOKE with UMD MM5 12km meteorological field
using RPO 2002 NEI, and CEM data (except MANE-VU); using Mobile 6.2 for
on-road EI processing and BEIS 3.12 for biogenic emissions estimate
CMAQ Modeling Domain
12km Eastern U.S. Domain
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
10796
5257
3976
2330
1133
622
MM5 29 Layers
185
68
CMAQ 22 Layers
10
0
0.1 0.2
0.3 0.4
0.5
0.6 0.7
Sigma Level
0.8 0.9
1
Altitude (m)
Vertical Layer
36km U.S. Domain
Observation Networks
•
•
•
STN (urban) – Daily SO4, NO3, NH4, EC, OC and PM2.5
IMPROVE (rural) – Daily SO4, NO3, EC, OC, Fine Soil, PM2.5, and Bext
CASTNet (sub-urban and rural) – Weekly SO4, NO3, and NH4
Comparison of Sulfate
Network
STN
IMPROVE
CASTNet
Mobs
4.36
2.95
3.56
Mpre
4.67
2.70
3.72
MB
0.31
-0.24
0.16
ME
1.90
1.18
2.63
FB(%)
-11.17
-27.71
-41.31
FE(%)
47.75
54.33
80.46
NMB(%)
7.02
-8.29
4.53
NME(%)
43.51
39.91
73.70
MNB(%)
17.29
17.81
20.61
MNE(%)
60.01
75.51
100.60
45
y = 1.057x - 0.0455
R2 = 0.6349
40
35
CMAQ
30
y = 0.9964x - 0.1946
R2 = 0.7062
25
20
y = 0.4477x + 2.1563
R2 = 0.1577
15
STN
10
IMPROVE
5
CASTNET
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Observation
30
35
40
45
Comparison of Sulfate (II)
Network
STN
IMPROVE
CASTNet
MB
0.25
-0.24
0.15
ME
0.89
0.60
1.10
FB(%)
-1.00
-19.10
-13.30
FE(%)
21.48
28.23
38.15
NMB(%)
5.92
-8.11
4.14
NME(%)
21.14
20.51
30.80
MNB(%)
2.34
-13.86
-4.62
MNE(%)
21.41
23.72
33.65
r2
0.81
0.88
0.84
10
STN
9
CMAQ(STN pair)
IMPROVE
8
CMAQ(IMPROVE pair)
SO4 (ug/m3)
7
CASTNet
CMAQ(CASTNet pair)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month of 2002
8
9
10
11
12
Comparison of Nitrate
Network
STN
IMPROVE
CASTNet
Mobs
1.75
0.78
1.06
Mpre
2.61
1.86
2.11
MB
0.86
1.08
1.05
ME
1.55
1.32
1.60
FB(%)
-2.26
14.44
24.90
FE(%)
81.71
102.32
103.73
NMB(%)
49.14
137.28
99.67
NME(%)
88.57
168.05
151.34
MNB(%)
74.11
208.11
300.53
MNE(%)
125.95
259.84
347.69
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
CMAQ
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
STN
y = 1.1102x + 0.6665
R2 = 0.4508
IMPROVE
y = 1.6384x + 0.5752
R2 = 0.4411
CASTNet
y = 0.8359x + 1.2273
R2 = 0.1792
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Observation
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Comparison of Nitrate (II)
Network
STN
IMPROVE
CASTNet
MB
0.88
1.07
1.05
ME
0.91
1.08
1.06
FB(%)
31.47
62.22
57.95
FE(%)
34.20
66.44
60.79
NMB(%)
48.44
136.74
100.79
NME(%)
49.73
138.29
101.63
MNB(%)
43.34
112.09
96.75
MNE(%)
45.91
115.84
99.36
r2
0.89
0.92
0.74
7.00
STN
6.00
CMAQ(STN pair)
IMPROVE
CMAQ(IMPROVE pair)
5.00
CASTNet
NO3 (ug/m3)
CMAQ(CASTNet pair)
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month of 2002
8
9
10
11
12
Comparison of Ammonium
Network
STN
CASTNet
Mobs
1.68
1.42
Mpre
2.11
1.64
MB
0.43
0.22
ME
0.83
0.84
FB(%)
19.56
-1.50
FE(%)
47.62
56.71
NMB(%)
25.68
15.49
NME(%)
49.28
59.16
MNB(%)
62.11
37.09
MNE(%)
83.15
77.33
16
14
y = 0.9103x + 0.5809
R2 = 0.5204
12
CMAQ
10
y = 0.6365x + 0.7383
R2 = 0.1738
8
6
4
STN
CASTNet
2
0
0
2
4
6
8
Observation
10
12
14
16
Comparison of Ammonium (II)
Network
STN
CASTNet
MB
0.43
0.19
ME
0.43
0.28
FB(%)
22.58
12.87
FE(%)
22.58
17.20
NMB(%)
25.51
12.72
NME(%)
25.51
18.88
MNB(%)
26.34
15.93
MNE(%)
26.34
19.98
r2
0.53
0.42
3.00
2.50
NH4 (ug/m3)
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
STN
CMAQ(STN pair)
CASTNet
CMAQ(CASTNet pair)
0.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month in 2002
8
9
10
11
12
Comparison of Organic Carbon
Network
STN
IMPROVE
Mobs
4.42
2.27
Mpre
3.15
2.04
MB
-1.26
-0.23
ME
2.29
1.32
FB(%)
-39.99
-8.59
FE(%)
60.82
56.62
NMB(%)
-28.59
-10.20
NME(%)
51.89
58.18
MNB(%)
-7.55
19.89
MNE(%)
62.78
65.96
r2
0.06
0.06
10
9
Network
STN
IMPROVE
STN(9m)
IMPROVE(9m)
MB
-1.13
-0.21
-0.50
0.25
ME
1.26
0.66
0.67
0.36
FB(%)
-28.86
-6.12
-15.18
10.80
FE(%)
31.81
26.94
19.12
16.96
NMB(%)
-26.01
-9.15
-12.80
13.14
NME(%)
29.07
29.35
17.37
19.32
MNB(%)
-22.70
-0.86
-13.12
13.21
100
90
80
70
MNE(%)
25.85
24.93
17.31
18.87
r2
0.01
0.02
0.53
0.25
8
CMAQ
60
50
40
7
30
STN
IMPROVE
20
OC (ug/m3)
6
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Observation
5
4
3
2
1
STN
CMAQ(STN pair)
IMPROVE
CMAQ(IMPROVE pair)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month in 2002
8
9
10
11
12
80
90
100
Comparison of Elemental Carbon
Network
STN
IMPROVE
Mobs
0.62
0.35
Mpre
1.06
0.36
MB
0.44
0.01
ME
0.61
0.21
FB(%)
27.05
-12.9
FE(%)
60.95
54.99
NMB(%)
70.14
1.57
NME(%)
97.20
59.35
MNB(%)
122.57
21.54
MNE(%)
146.99
70.62
r2
0.20
0.21
Elemental Carbon (ug/m3)
14
13
12
11
10
9
CMAQ
2
1.8
Network
STN
IMPROVE
MB
0.45
0.01
ME
0.45
0.09
FB(%)
51.58
-0.92
FE(%)
51.58
23.31
NMB(%)
71.43
1.98
NME(%)
71.43
24.44
MNB(%)
71.34
2.73
MNE(%)
71.34
23.29
r2
0.48
0.06
8
STN
IMPROVE
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1.6
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Observation
1.4
IMPROVE
EC(ug/m3)
1.2
CMAQ(IMPROVE pair)
STN
CMAQ(STN pair)
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month of 2002
8
9
10
11
12
9
10
11
12
13
14
Comparison of Fine Soil
Mobs
0.54
Mpre
1.49
MB
0.95
ME
1.03
FB(%)
93.66
FE(%)
98.18
NMB(%)
177.15
NME(%)
191.93
MNB(%)
296.87
MNE(%)
300.33
Average IMPROVE vs. CMAQ by Month, by Quarter, by Year
Fine Soil (ug/m3)
6
4RPOs
Annual
20
19
18
MANE-VU(obs)
17
16
15
14
MANE-VU(pre)
5
13
CMAQ
12
VISTAS(obs)
11
MANE-VU
VISTAS
MIDWEST RPO
CENRAP
10
9
8
VISTAS(pre)
7
6
4
5
MIDWESTRPO(obs)
4
2
MIDWESTRPO(pre)
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
3
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
IMPROVE
CENRAP(obs)
CENRAP(pre)
2
1
Average Period
AN
N
U
AL
SO
N
A
JJ
M
AM
D
JF
D
EC
V
N
O
C
T
O
SE
P
AU
G
JU
L
JU
N
M
AY
AP
R
M
AR
FE
B
N
0
JA
Fine Soil (ug/m3)
3
19
20
Comparison of PM2.5
25
Network
STN
IMPROVE
MB
1.75
1.38
ME
3.04
2.82
FB(%)
12.32
17.81
FE(%)
19.36
30.12
NMB(%)
12.12
15.65
NME(%)
21.10
32.10
MNB(%)
15.08
24.88
MNE(%)
21.41
35.73
r2
0.14
0.02
PM2.5 (ug/m3)
20
15
10
150
140
5
130
STN
120
IMPROVE
STN
CMAQ(STN pair)
IMPROVE
CMAQ(IMPROVE pair)
0
110
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month of 2002
100
CMAQ
90
y = 0.6572x + 4.4142
2
R = 0.3371
80
70
y = 0.6116x + 7.2024
2
R = 0.2766
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
STN
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
8
9
10
11
12
Model Performance from other RPOs
“Model Performance Evaluation” Michael Ku Denver, June 2005
Sulfate
Nitrate
EC
OC
Soil
Comparison of Extinction Coefficient
Mobs
76.54
Mpre
70.22
MB
-6.31
ME
25.67
FB(%)
-12.64
Bext (/Mm)
FE(%)
35.34
All Regions
NMB(%)
-8.25
NME(%)
33.54
MNB(%)
-3.25
MNE(%)
34.22
Annual
400
350
y = 0.7389x + 13.674
R2 = 0.5286
300
CMAQ
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
150
200
IMPROVE
250
300
350
400
Visibility (deciview) in Acadia, ME
WEEK
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
S
M
T
W
T
F
9.895412
9.282193
S
WEEK
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
16.71473
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
27.44
10.25
18.64
13.60
17.57
10.36
18.92
10.84
5.24
5.32
9.70
16.04
15.30
11.29
4.30
9.30
9.86
17.83
12.51
9.20
8.85
9.46
16.85
4.27
19.97
15.22
8.73
25.62
11.18
19.67
20.90
21.28
23.98
13.82
12.23
19.58
23.99
19.27
12.21
9.29
10.02
12.63
9.50
10.45
25.83
1.98
8.31
20.39
27.99
14.84
20.02
27.07
8.79
9.10
21.23
27.30
14.16
4.45
8.75
9.73
8.12
9.26
8.94
13.72
7.13
21.42
7.60
9.15
1.60
20.47
9.76
13.55
21.63
5.91
9.72
11.98
11.43
16.55
14.33
28.31
19.74
17.90
23.34
29.77
23.54
19.66
7.95
24.99
6.69
5.04
18.98
11.64
6.66
15.34
12.99
9.73
9.11
3.34
13.82
16.01
10.50
12.18
21.09
12.21
17.96
11.86
5.40
11.30
28.67
12.31
14.01
16.23
7.12
11.25
12.51
12.83
8.26
10.15
13.07
18.73
11.58
9.31
17.28
5.98
11.33
24.33
10.41
8.14
15.78
12.23
23.21
16.26
19.56
25.89
18.92
11.10
32.92
14.87
17.71
4.92
29.42
16.30
13.61
26.11
11.11
8.03
12.94
12.22
5.56
11.71
8.06
16.31
11.21
24.27
8.15
15.29
7.06
13.59
21.63
9.85
20.52
8.29
13.23
15.92
21.17
4.41
20.30
14.19
10.71
4.82
8.56
12.60
26.75
7.86
14.35
10.20
7.14
11.38
18.32
8.89
0.92
15.66
15.81
26.67
11.60
15.48
7.43
11.69
10.23
33.97
11.40
10.02
9.28
23.78
18.14
16.61
31.85
8.94
6.92
12.03
9.36
2.71
0.72
17.00
12.60
14.75
22.95
14.84
13.83
17.01
12.76
14.66
20.58
12.44
15.50
14.87
10.35
9.10
24.82
11.43
7.09
13.40
9.78
11.98
9.05
8.12
12.96
10.17
16.27
18.01
14.77
6.38
6.63
17.11
27.89
22.26
9.15
15.31
14.62
13.63
13.03
32.08
18.26
10.68
13.80
7.15
22.08
15.91
17.52
10.09
6.30
12.91
12.64
6.03
14.89
20.24
10.19
18.67
10.56
18.14
8.46
15.49
18.35
17.65
12.35
3.67
20.82
22.14
14.06
13.59
15.65
6.68
6.63
17.99
15.07
9.30
16.35
8.82
5.91
11.69
12.15
24.90
14.72
12.02
10.51
26.09
13.17
13.88
11.04
14.48
14.50
15.42
10.98
27.85
15.09
5.66
11.86
19.03
19.94
9.55
10.85
9.85
12.88
12.50
19.06
19.74
25.57
4.80
16.31
21.32
31.57
13.40
10.81
24.65
13.71
16.56
19.38
9.31
12.08
23.79
10.90
19.46
15.16
6.02
14.07
15.06
12.31
8.75
14.24
13.73
9.92
10.53
7.18
8.34
12.57
12.56
3.81
25.36
19.12
11.20
18.78
12.12
8.09
18.75
15.88
24.47
14.13
15.82
15.23
18.96
20.16
14.35
14.96
13.30
15.87
7.76
10.00
29.82
7.17
5.73
21.35
25.52
14.18
19.04
21.93
12.14913
10.71584
14.97388
15.58145
18.70263
22.59678
7.371641
16.54411
17.59581
6.856189
13.19086
18.35776
9.745596
11.96948
12.14913
11.81727
20.00128
19.43049
16.58228
IMPROVE
16.0543
8.111
11.69381
11.05257
10.81805
14.97388
20% Best Days
15.26056
9.001613
15.62346
12.17876
18.79465
CMAQ
8.565
6.585
15.89235
6.65776
20.63058
9.477894
9.321641
19.31521
11.47402
22.64883
16.5058
7.514161
8.586616
6.5752
11.99965
5.743636
14.03643
23.70244
8.91998
20.93098
23.75836
27.0805
8.671005
23.22388
20.59239
12.61298
20.43814
11.28171
9.669838
27.72589
30.05683
24.15914
10.91923
12.58461
13.68639
10.43804
11.93922
12.72566
19.8238
26.94627
14.51614
15.26056
21.82675
11.72482
13.24419
8.285518
30.77312
22.50239
8.458683
13.4025
8.6289
7.884574
15.56037
10.50822
9.631743
8.197798
12.05971
5.140205
9.082586
9.858168
9.400073
12.35471
10.26042
18.65629
12.3256
21.24654
16.09438
21.49434
9.858168
10.91923
16.84545
12.61298
9.516579
IMPROVE
IMPROVE
CMAQ
14.37463
13.29724
23.18458
20% Worst Days
16.54411
23.422
22.699
24.062
CMAQ
Visibility (deciview) in Brigantine, NJ
WEEK
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
S
M
T
W
T
F
24.34
S
23.25
19.93
21.31
17.14
22.75
24.42
17.78
18.55
24.25
14.63
20.35
23.61
17.32
13.19
18.36
9.75
15.26
11.97
12.15
11.82
20.00
19.87
12.33
IMPROVE
23.64
14.206
26.60
7.56
20% Best Days
CMAQ
20.27
20.07
18.92
21.87
19.14
18.92
13.696
11.825
20.18
16.92
28.15
21.70
15.58
19.80
15.77
25.95
15.91
21.47
16.79
18.79
16.90
21.67
23.21
24.51
26.03
17.51
14.40
21.40
19.66
22.41
24.93
22.61
31.53
26.32
20.43
32.77
8.67
30.91
13.91
27.01
21.55
11.82
27.34
22.85
22.55
23.92
15.58
24.85
17.78
27.41
21.48
19.96
23.88
10.44
11.94
20.00
14.33
19.80
21.88
15.26
16.54
19.39
12.95
22.58
29.50
29.50
14.68
14.72
14.72
17.53
19.54
22.02
17.75
15.56
22.52
21.51
17.35
18.39
16.37
18.26
21.56
18.99
24.25
16.68
13.66
21.78
28.85
23.34
20.26
16.83
17.44
13.35
11.51
24.16
IMPROVE
25.95
20% Worst Days
IMPROVE
27.054
CMAQ
24.880
27.806
WEEK
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
25.50
18.15
17.11
28.27
19.78
16.39
22.14
24.88
13.18
13.17
14.25
25.08
19.81
19.09
15.47
16.29
12.57
15.73
19.59
18.82
27.66
20.62
16.02
23.61
21.91
19.07
15.82
13.01
16.20
30.23
22.15
19.68
24.68
24.73
3.16
13.74
16.27
11.64
25.72
14.26
11.68
27.30
25.42
24.11
13.98
6.98
26.29
14.58
28.76
28.33
22.66
26.73
12.85
23.51
18.91
29.27
23.32
13.92
18.47
19.63
17.30
20.92
5.49
26.40
17.05
18.03
16.83
13.57
15.32
20.03
20.92
21.22
25.49
14.05
26.19
24.95
25.27
18.08
22.63
24.42
20.36
26.69
25.00
28.70
28.54
26.09
10.52
16.20
21.47
20.86
18.87
25.83
14.39
26.96
29.60
27.39
21.02
15.14
30.12
21.94
20.87
22.43
21.97
28.41
23.92
20.30
25.53
25.32
29.27
17.12
20.43
26.59
21.14
23.41
19.70
17.04
12.60
22.56
13.29
26.05
16.90
19.31
19.67
15.17
22.61
21.69
15.59
27.15
25.93
26.08
25.02
22.56
21.14
20.19
24.49
18.56
33.33
23.13
26.12
20.74
13.51
24.16
26.34
25.60
15.99
13.75
25.66
17.82
25.04
14.87
24.20
27.51
19.01
26.93
19.01
21.50
30.59
24.38
22.94
21.36
19.63
25.43
24.57
21.76
24.61
14.02
27.92
11.80
8.83
16.68
18.60
19.36
24.87
22.63
27.31
22.88
15.42
24.11
15.92
18.45
24.34
27.09
22.55
27.17
20.66
20.29
11.94
19.23
15.64
27.52
17.99
15.78
29.41
19.04
26.09
28.30
32.08
12.50
4.87
27.23
2.93
12.04
15.98
29.76
13.68
23.52
17.16
25.56
6.10
23.36
25.42
26.24
18.24
10.72
20.57
19.25
20.89
19.01
30.04
25.24
18.70
23.81
20.08
21.29
25.20
15.43
18.97
16.13
22.80
24.47
13.96
19.09
14.81
23.94
25.44
24.42
11.67
28.48
8.43
24.17
18.37
20.67
15.40
14.01
19.25
15.94
22.03
12.49
34.46
12.26
22.42
19.91
20.88
17.60
28.83
24.46
20.00
14.51
18.08
20.65
15.58
24.45
21.30
22.66
19.67
16.80
27.44
16.47
23.68
24.44
29.79
21.99
14.46
23.14
24.66
14.55
26.30
23.57
16.97
21.74
22.74
27.30
16.78
4.61
4.94
20.59
24.11
17.42
19.79
35.07
7.50
26.74
19.76
26.67
25.28
18.41
15.60
21.10
16.83
12.21
29.44
3.03
25.56
18.10
26.26
26.64
29.53
19.58
22.18
23.99
25.50
13.38
25.68
25.71
21.15
19.13
23.31
14.83
26.66
27.01
25.24
19.96
10.36
21.07
21.18
20.45
25.37
9.92
25.84
23.00
18.07
17.27
9.47
19.69
22.85
7.82
15.75
22.42
17.84
11.59
14.19
20.21
16.63
18.25
18.98
25.51
25.46
11.56
14.52
23.98
12.22
17.97
24.87
4.78
25.10
18.42
23.79
28.27
12.35
13.48
22.36
28.78
13.54
22.61
29.05
CMAQ
Visibility (deciview) in Lye Brook, VT
WEEK
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
S
M
T
W
T
F
12.18
10.61
S
WEEK
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
21.14
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
22.07
13.24
19.92
21.77
20.27
13.67
15.03
15.57
5.38
6.61
14.03
13.37
20.04
13.29
5.35
9.33
5.87
15.17
7.19
10.51
17.04
5.57
19.62
9.31
25.21
14.58
9.42
22.68
15.45
27.07
17.27
22.84
23.36
14.33
17.07
17.42
23.01
25.14
10.27
10.57
12.36
19.06
14.82
12.59
21.47
0.61
14.50
8.35
22.60
20.72
18.80
27.07
5.19
10.45
17.56
24.21
20.17
9.01
16.92
24.40
8.98
7.92
7.05
11.97
7.82
26.38
15.03
8.34
1.35
20.87
0.73
11.50
19.88
7.28
10.77
14.62
11.95
21.23
18.19
22.26
23.34
15.45
17.56
27.90
15.32
12.04
13.72
22.29
5.45
16.65
19.00
14.71
6.81
13.85
15.03
22.92
17.46
2.87
23.16
14.95
11.91
9.30
19.10
11.05
14.85
18.79
4.73
15.62
28.36
11.60
17.98
17.54
22.47
16.99
14.47
11.74
12.04
18.58
17.42
25.62
9.30
12.18
19.10
4.41
10.52
25.56
11.20
20.42
18.09
10.86
25.15
21.69
8.09
21.73
14.77
8.06
27.33
7.05
12.71
15.76
25.02
15.07
15.54
28.31
11.18
13.74
13.59
14.87
19.65
10.00
12.12
20.73
9.83
23.32
12.96
11.25
16.91
17.40
15.19
11.05
19.78
21.06
16.72
8.69
23.65
7.37
16.15
16.00
14.78
7.75
16.86
8.02
24.90
12.85
13.72
8.71
6.02
14.10
21.37
16.95
10.64
14.69
28.16
18.49
9.18
13.21
6.47
12.44
7.91
28.49
12.75
10.19
21.59
19.45
15.01
17.03
29.64
16.20
12.72
12.91
10.41
4.39
11.12
26.06
10.30
13.41
19.72
14.33
6.37
18.43
10.02
10.04
11.90
14.22
25.48
17.03
11.97
10.25
20.41
19.12
10.02
16.45
9.32
14.35
19.20
15.20
7.01
12.67
19.60
16.86
21.53
4.22
5.62
18.41
21.65
16.64
5.89
18.79
12.35
15.56
9.41
27.12
22.78
4.99
10.11
7.96
22.65
17.59
17.50
18.60
8.50
14.10
15.74
9.62
22.83
25.95
14.72
15.08
16.92
24.76
13.29
18.51
13.36
17.40
16.18
3.47
18.94
22.22
12.43
21.39
29.00
21.79
7.83
21.54
12.20
13.71
21.76
14.58
9.38
13.87
8.18
21.80
18.75
10.99
11.15
27.32
13.40
9.88
7.77
15.12
12.74
16.55
11.72
23.32
12.79
6.01
9.33
18.34
25.25
7.34
15.63
18.15
18.23
17.09
17.43
23.75
23.50
7.74
18.02
21.18
25.10
16.33
17.82
25.38
18.22
17.73
19.34
12.25
9.03
23.83
13.02
22.97
16.00
18.26
19.00
13.06
11.07
15.86
11.05
12.23
12.80
8.81
6.79
8.47
11.13
14.13
2.92
22.79
11.50
7.88
12.86
12.91
23.86
19.51
13.35
18.71
13.92
14.70
12.66
23.74
27.65
12.48
12.68
6.03
16.18
9.47
11.17
24.78
3.78
5.34
19.38
25.63
2.77
20.39
29.19
8.88
6.63
12.58
18.26
14.68
15.56
20.81
5.32
15.37
21.35
9.93
7.32
19.96
5.35
4.36
16.85
20% Best Days
9.16
11.82
20.53
10.47
16.70
22.67
10.65
IMPROVE
12.75
13.61
7.70
10.33
21.54
15.26
6.27
CMAQ
14.91
16.43
22.92
10.99
8.75
6.277
8.849
6.908
11.79
1.39
11.97
13.94
9.86
10.44
2.77
9.67
5.57
17.08
19.63
22.18
16.86
17.51
11.54
21.40
6.04
8.02
9.08
26.03
15.67
12.24
28.39
21.54
8.67
15.75
17.98
27.01
21.89
29.44
11.82
27.34
22.85
22.55
6.58
8.71
32.73
30.20
25.88
10.61
10.78
11.94
20% Worst Days
8.37
9.12
9.82
19.21
19.80
25.73
13.81
27.85
11.82
IMPROVE
15.91
9.59
27.47
9.48
14.16
6.87
24.114
8.59
11.12
11.51
5.78
11.09
9.00
15.06
8.50
20.76
7.88
6.81
21.56
18.99
9.12
9.08
5.87
10.95
19.23
17.97
6.12
8.92
15.60
15.37
9.00
12.47
IMPROVE
CMAQ
13.71
16.27
23.104
24.289
CMAQ
Visibility (deciview) in Shenandoah, VA
WEEK
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
S
M
T
W
T
F
18.93
S
12.21
16.27
16.99
12.35
18.34
20.68
11.97
9.97
20.92
15.58
12.18
15.62
16.19
11.41
19.29
IMPROVE
12.84
12.237
CMAQ
19.52
21.16
27.73
13.30
20% Best Days
16.71
16.79
16.39
17.281
12.824
21.48
11.02
19.34
16.96
18.45
20.54
16.51
18.50
22.21
19.54
18.64
22.18
18.87
18.39
18.42
17.44
11.97
13.94
24.93
18.84
16.31
24.85
18.79
18.13
25.49
25.34
24.34
27.15
12.24
29.70
25.18
22.22
25.65
22.88
25.49
19.26
31.09
28.85
23.68
24.51
21.33
30.30
33.46
32.54
12.33
23.08
29.34
27.85
22.65
14.77
32.77
23.55
25.10
30.01
29.07
28.39
8.37
14.79
17.58
22.27
28.68
29.39
30.54
27.85
18.58
20% Worst Days
12.89
29.34
27.97
16.29
23.37
IMPROVE
17.82
28.799
5.27
18.07
CMAQ
22.32
20.98
24.16
15.41
20.53
16.92
19.67
20.11
21.20
9.44
15.04
17.98
17.77
17.97
13.35
14.86
11.51
17.97
11.94
18.44
17.73
14.01
8.54
16.81
26.712
28.695
WEEK
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
14.59
18.03
15.60
19.45
19.84
26.76
11.39
22.48
17.40
11.42
12.23
23.09
4.00
21.22
16.16
16.02
12.51
19.17
20.99
20.66
24.71
19.47
20.01
22.40
20.06
20.05
13.03
5.01
25.51
23.03
23.24
30.00
25.14
28.38
16.36
19.57
13.15
20.14
29.73
21.71
24.41
19.16
32.31
23.69
21.20
6.44
24.86
10.57
21.60
23.92
13.68
28.19
10.03
22.12
19.77
26.92
11.21
9.97
16.12
25.90
16.57
18.99
11.56
29.88
15.12
27.02
17.92
11.36
13.14
22.29
16.94
24.96
22.40
13.42
30.09
18.51
24.02
26.82
19.28
23.98
24.83
22.61
27.41
34.53
25.55
27.19
23.96
26.40
22.17
20.75
29.90
24.65
19.32
28.26
26.30
19.50
16.99
13.56
29.87
14.42
21.14
17.05
15.38
30.11
21.01
15.36
21.63
21.68
26.34
13.52
17.21
20.28
27.55
20.95
25.82
25.23
20.87
22.27
12.93
21.02
19.91
19.12
17.09
15.92
26.19
22.24
21.61
26.33
18.91
28.23
27.96
26.03
31.18
23.35
20.59
20.53
31.00
27.01
31.39
27.88
30.48
33.08
19.89
30.11
20.04
22.22
30.28
16.59
22.16
12.93
21.99
20.66
14.31
24.58
17.01
14.98
31.21
21.72
19.05
18.10
14.99
23.42
19.51
17.13
21.50
10.32
22.35
11.90
13.96
16.75
20.84
14.66
19.99
21.75
28.51
25.23
14.94
20.08
18.79
23.64
22.87
23.77
16.92
26.28
23.83
25.06
22.97
25.11
14.82
24.97
24.34
17.28
27.22
27.69
33.60
29.72
33.09
25.55
10.21
33.76
7.73
10.55
19.64
23.49
15.44
20.97
13.32
23.54
3.44
22.45
24.64
22.01
15.05
20.38
14.17
20.22
18.71
17.66
27.61
25.22
24.57
24.23
20.27
22.54
22.09
17.46
16.88
24.12
19.78
20.49
20.07
20.18
23.89
25.35
22.21
23.66
12.37
32.39
26.47
23.51
15.04
23.07
23.84
17.49
23.31
19.05
30.34
17.77
32.77
18.07
28.12
27.10
18.73
20.63
22.90
20.49
19.01
6.18
19.69
24.47
12.84
22.28
17.81
17.22
15.89
15.71
24.40
26.53
15.76
21.99
29.32
27.34
13.75
26.51
24.54
17.20
21.01
19.53
18.36
16.92
22.24
24.12
16.83
14.73
21.98
22.08
19.83
26.16
18.74
31.67
14.96
17.04
15.53
23.35
26.50
22.70
18.44
25.30
31.17
18.60
31.61
1.35
29.55
20.55
23.21
24.76
26.30
14.37
21.08
22.57
18.97
12.66
21.46
20.89
19.73
13.69
17.73
12.62
26.40
22.39
19.36
19.79
23.24
21.96
19.43
20.02
20.75
17.06
20.22
23.44
17.58
18.35
13.42
23.16
20.87
19.54
23.74
18.79
22.04
10.04
24.82
28.60
22.18
19.81
21.51
20.07
25.59
25.82
26.62
29.80
27.10
20.25
22.67
18.38
25.78
20.95
20.73
27.26
24.10
12.21
18.68
21.85
11.32
15.71
23.80
17.10
IMPROVE
CMAQ
Comparison of Haze Index at 4 Class I areas
Class I area
Acadia
Brigantine
Lye Brook
Shenandoah
Mobs
14.50
20.47
13.71
20.00
Mpre MAXobs MAXpre MB
14.54
30.77
32.08 0.05
20.67
32.75
32.08 0.20
15.26
32.72
29.64 1.55
21.61
33.46
34.53 1.62
ME
3.39
3.28
3.59
4.05
NMB(%) NME(%) FB(%) FE(%)
0.32
23.35
-4.58 27.28
0.98
16.02
-1.37 17.15
11.34
26.22
11.01 26.07
8.08
20.25
7.28
21.58
MNB(%)
0.71
1.22
19.68
12.41
MNE(%)
26.20
16.45
32.75
24.36
Haze Index (deciview) at Class I Areas in Northeastern U.S.
40
35
30
CMAQ
25
20
15
Acadia
y = 0.9556x + 0.69
2
R = 0.64
Brigantine
y = 0.8574x + 3.1194
2
R = 0.4922
Lye Brook
y = 0.7683x + 4.7298
R2 = 0.5805
Shenandoah
y = 0.595x + 9.7159
R2 = 0.3851
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
20
IMPROVE
25
30
35
40
PM2.5 and Visibility
"Clean" & "Dirty" days at Class I areas
.
25
20% Worst Days Mean PM2.5(no NH4) (ug/m3)
20
ACAD obs
15
ACAD pre
BRIG obs
BRIG pre
10
LYBR obs
LYBR pre
SHEN obs
5
SHEN pre
Y=3.2X+7.96 r2=0.8344
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
20% Best Days Mean PM2.5(no NH4) (ug/m3)
3.5
4
4.5
5
PM2.5 Composition and Visibility
40
38
36
34
32
30
Fine
Soil
19%
Fine
Soil
6%
SO4
26%
SO4
42%
OC
34%
Fine
Soil
13%
Fine
Soil
7%
OC
26%
SO4
38%
OC
20%
28
OC
32%
PM mass (ug/m3)
26
24
22
EC
6%
NO3
12%
NO3
17%
EC
6%
EC
4% NO3
6%
SO4
57%
EC
4%
NO3
25%
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Fine Soil
OC
EC
NO3
SO4
2
0
Clean IMPROVE
Clean CMAQ
Dirty IMPROVE
Dirty CMAQ
Summary
•
MANE-VU CMAQ modeling for 2002 base year shows reasonably well
performance on PM2.5 species, and visibility. It’s consistent with other
RPOs’ modeling performance
•
Model captures general trend of PM2.5 species throughout year with bias.
PM2.5 underestimated in Summer due to OC and Soil peak, overestimated
in Fall due to Sulfate, and overestimated at beginning and end of the year
due to Nitrate
•
HI of 20% (best or worst visibility) modeling days agrees with HI of 20%
(best or worst visibility) measured days
•
Linear relationship observed between average PM2.5 concentration at 20%
worst visibility days and average PM2.5 concentration at 20% best visibility
days
•
Sulfate is the dominant species making observed “clean” days to “dirty”
days; while Sulfate and Nitrate both are major contributors making modeling
“clean” days to “dirty” days