Transcript Welcome to Carter - Portland Cement Association

Spring Board Meeting
By the PCA Economic Research Team
ata
orting
on
s
Economic Research Reporting
PCA’s economic research team has identified three main
services of the current reporting system.
Data
Reporting
Analysis
Data
Reporting
Presentation
Materials
Data
Reporting
Analysis
Data
Reporting
Presentatio
Materials
Analysis
Analysis
Data
Reporting
Presentation
Materials
Presentation
Materials
Analysis
Analysis
Data
Reporting
Presentation
Materials
Analysis
Presentation
Materials
The U.S. Construction InVue
The Construction InVue consolidates PCA
analytics, data services, and presentation
materials on one platform.
Data
Reporting
Analysis
Presentation
Materials
Construction InVue Core Services
•Published in Excel
Data
Reporting
•Designed to be used to update internal databases,
spreadsheets, reports, and presentations
•Data can be copied, pasted, and reformatted
from the spreadsheets.
•One year look back
•Updates data from the internet to ensure the
most current data is available every time.
•Dashboard experience will make access to PCA
economic data effortless, fast, and timely
•Real Construction Spending based on PCA
developed construction spending model by
sector
Construction InVue Core Services
•One Year forecast provided
•Written commentary updated throughout the month
•Stop lights easily sum up market conditions
•Access to PCA Flash Reports
Analysis
•In depth written reports explaining the economic
environment and its implications for the future
•Selected leading Indicators for the macro
environment and the construction industry
•From the same data sets that feeds PCA models
•Calculated fields expose underlying trends and
momentum
•3MMA, 12MMA, Y-O-Y %∆, M-O-M %∆
Construction InVue Core Services
•Layout designed for ease of use with attention to
details
•30 + different graphs ready to be used
•Updated automatically!
•Ready To Print Format
•Excel sheet has been formatted to be printed for
use as part of a presentation or used as a
personal desktop reference material
Presentation
Materials
•All data in the report can be accessed for other
presentation files.
The Construction InVue: The Report
Taking a Look: Executive Summary
Data
Reporting
•The most general overview of the
construction industry in the report.
•Macro Indicators include
unemployment, housing starts,
Dow Jones REIT index
composite, estimated state and
local government surplus or
deficits.
•Excel report features a print report
button.
Analysis
Presentation
Materials
•Text and data are updated from the
web as new data becomes available
Taking a Look: Executive Summary
• Report Layout: Executive Summary
Written Commentary
Graphic Representation
Stop Light
Analysis,
% Changes,
& Differences
Data
Reporting
Looks at historical trends and
states implications for the PCA
outlook
Updated frequently
Analysis
Presentation
Materials
PCA economic staff provide
commentary and analysis on
construction economic trends.
Moving averages help to expose
longer term trends from short term
variations. The longer the moving
average period the more long term
the underlying trend.
The Forecast is updated with every
release three times a year.
Stop light
analysis gives
an instant
visual read on
economic and
construction
conditions.
Percent
changes
provide
readings on
the magnitude
of variation
with each
series on a
month over
month and
year over year
basis.
Taking a Look: U.S. Indicators
Data
Reporting
Analysis
•Provides a quick drill down of
leading indicators and the effect they
have on construction spending.
•Contains data on the macro
economic environment, key interest
rates, labor, and the three major
construction sectors; Residential,
Nonresidential, and Public.
•Amore detailed version on the
executive summary.
•Data supports commentary and
outlook
•Updated from the web
Presentation
Materials
Taking a Look: U.S. Spending
Data
Reporting
•Center piece of the report
•The entire structure of the
report is laid out in order to
provide a forward view on these
metrics
•Extensive set of construction
spending by subsector and subsector
component.
Analysis
• Construction spending reported in
both nominal and real dollars.
•One year data look back with
the forecast
•Data updated by clicking the refresh
button.
Presentation
Materials
Taking a Look: Sector Pages
Data
Reporting
•Highly detailed drill down of
construction sector indicators.
•Data is compiled for each subsector
outlining the unique set of influences
each market faces.
•Residential focuses on Sales,
Inventories, and Starts
•Nonresidential focuses on key
indicators for each sector
Analysis
•Public focuses on Trust fund and Tax
revenues
•Data updated by clicking the refresh
button.
•The data sets continue to be added
to and changed as new information
presents itself.
Presentation
Materials
Taking a Look: Data Reporting
• How to Read the Table
Series
Historical Data
Series are organized by
subheading and then series.
The data from
which the
analysis is drawn
upon.
Data
Reporting
Analysis
Presentation
Materials
In the construction sector
pages subheadings are
construction subsector.
The data month
will advance on
the release of
new construction
data. Empty cells
will eventually fill
in with data as
they are
reported.
Moving Averages
&
Current Year
Forecast
Stop Light
Analysis,
% Changes, &
Differences
Taking a Look: Trend Analysis
• How to Read the Table
Series
Historical Data
Moving Averages
&
Current Year
Forecast
Stop Light
Analysis,
% Changes, &
Differences
Moving averages
help to expose
longer term
trends from short
term variations.
The longer the
moving average
period the more
long term the
underlying trend.
Stop light
analysis gives an
instant visual
read on economic
and construction
conditions.
Data
Reporting
Analysis
Presentation
Materials
The Forecast is
updated with
every release
three times a
year.
Percent changes
provide readings
on the magnitude
of variation in
each series on a
month over
month and year
over year basis.
Taking a Look: Moving Averages
• How to Read the Table
Data
Reporting
• Is an average of a specified period to smooth
out the short term trend to reveal long term
patterns.
•Indicates turning points in the momentum of
long term trends
Upward momentum
3MMA > 12MMA
Downward momentum
3MMA < 12MMA
Employment (000 SA)
Analysis
12MMA
3MMA
Turning Point
12MMA
Presentation
Materials
3MMA
Taking a Look: % Changes
• How to Read the Table
Data
Reporting
Analysis
Presentation
Materials
•Measures rate of change in the indicators from one
period to the next.
•Shows growth or decline and magnitude of
variances
•Based on observations from a year ago (Y-O-Y) or
from the following period (M-O-M)
Example
Taking a Look: Forecasts
•From Annual Short Term Model
Data
Reporting
•Provides PCA’s assessment for the current year
on selected series
•Macro
•GDP
•Employment
Analysis
•Interest Rates
•Construction Spending
•Construction Indicators
•Updated three times a year. Once for the Spring,
Summer, and Fall
Presentation
Materials
Taking a Look: Stop Light Analysis
• How to Read the Table
Data
Reporting
•Measures changes in indicators and assigns a
certain color value associated with potential
positive or negative influence on construction
spending.
Example: Criteria for New Single Family Sales
If X ≥ 1.0%, Growth
Analysis
If 0 ≤ X < 1.0%, Neutral
Presentation
Materials
If 0 > X, Decline
The Construction InVue: The Interface
Taking a Look: Getting Started
•Using Report Navigation and Communication Controls
Data
Reporting
Adjust the level at
which the report is
viewed on screen
Analysis
Reveal and conceals
historical data
Updates sheet with the
latest data from the web.
Resets the view of the
spread sheet to the top
left corner.
Presentation
Materials
Accesses current
economic analysis and
research from PCA
economists. Each page
contains Reports that
are specific to the pages’
subject matter.
(For example a housing
starts outlook would be
found on the residential
page.)
Communication and
Feedback. By clicking the
envelope you can send an
email directly to the PCA
economic research staff. If
there any questions,
comments, or concerns
you can get in touch by
simply clicking a button.
The PCA logo will open up
the PCA economic
research website.
Individual Page Navigation was included as a convenience for the user. The small
panel will remain on the upper left side no matter where you navigate, keeping these
functions in an easily accessible area on the spreadsheet at all times.
Taking a Look: Data Reporting
• How to Use the Table
•Updating the Workbook
Data
Reporting
•Updates are done almost daily.
•Always have the most current information on
your desktop
•Can update linked work books and
databases.
Analysis
Presentation
Materials
Taking a Look: Data Reporting
• How to Use the Table
•Revealing historical data
Data
Reporting
Analysis
•Each Section provides 13 months of
historical data.
3 month historical data
13 months historical data
Presentation
Materials
Spring Board Meeting
By the PCA Economic Research Team