Transcript Poverty Ta

Indicators of Deprivation and
Wellbeing in Modern America:
A Look Beyond the “Poverty Rate”
Nicholas Eberstadt
Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy
American Enterprise Institute
[email protected]
Poverty Seminar #6
March 8, 2005
Outline of Presentation
1) The Poverty Rate as a predictor of socioeconomic progress and
household consumption
2) Expenditure patterns of poor/low income households and associated
household characteristics in four major consumption areas:
(Nutrition; Housing; Transportation; Health)
3) Additional Indicators of Wellbeing:
--Subjective Wellbeing (Happiness)
--Crime/Security
--Welfare Dependence
--Family Stability
--Religion in Personal Life
--Financial Emergencies
4) Some suggestions for other indicators of wellbeing
U.S. Poverty Rate, 1959-2003
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
59 962 965 968 971 974 977 980 983 986 989 992 995 998 001
9
1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 2
Source: U. S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables, available online at
http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html. Accessed 2/17/05
Total
Families
Children
Elderly
No Progress for Three Decades?
U.S. Poverty Rate, 1973-2003
40
35
30
Total
25
Familes
20
Children
15
Elderly
10
5
0
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Source: U. S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables, available online at
http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html. Accessed 2/17/05
2003
Poverty Rate and Other Possible Indicators
of Progress against Poverty:
1973 vs. 2001
Poverty
Rate
Unemployment
Rate (percent)
Per Capita
Income (2002 $)
Percent of people
over age 25 with a
high school degree
Total non-medical
means-tested govt
spending (mil 2002 $)
1973
11.1
4.9
14,291
59.8
109,008
2001
11.7
4.7
22,970
84.1
230,595
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables, Table 2.
Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html accessed 2/25/05.
U.S. Census Bureau Historical Income Tables, Table P-1.
Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/histinc/incperdet.html accessed 2/15/05.
House Ways and Means Committe Prints: 108-6, 2004 Green Book, Appendix F and K.
Available online at http://www.gpoaccess.gov/wmprints/green/2004.html accessed 2/15/05.
U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2003. Mini Historical Statistics Table HS-22.
Available online at http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-22.pdf, accessed 2/15/05
Do U.S. Economic, Labor Force and Antipoverty Policy Trends
Correspond with the “Poverty Rate”?:
Regressions for 1973-2002
Equation 1
Equation 2
Equation 3
Equation 4
N
29
29
29
29
Adjusted RSq.
0.59
0.58
0.92
0.94
Ln PCI
0.55
(4.87)***
0.63
(3.14)***
--
-1.61
(-8.32)***
LnUNEM
0.50
(6.53)***
0.51
(6.36)***
-1.72
(-7.67)***
-0.13
(-3.26)***
LnHS25+
--
--
0.10
(1.87)
0.10
(2.38)*
ANTIPV
--
-0.05
(0.50)
2.96
(10.38)***
3.09
(12.57)***
Key: PCI = Per Capita Money Income in Thousand $US
UNEM = Civilian Unemployment Rate
HS25+ = Percentage of U.S. Population 25 and Older with at least High School Education
ANTIPV = Per Capita U.S. Means Tested Spending in Thousand $US (2002 constant dollars)
* = p< 0.05; ***= p < 0.001
Parenthetical numbers are “t-statistics” ; year 1974 excluded (lack of ANTIPV data)
Overall Consumer Expenditure Patterns for USA:
1960/61 vs. 2002
1960/61
(All families)
2002
(All consumer units)
Persons per unit
3.2
2.5
Reported annual current
consumption expenditures
(constant 2002 dollars)
25,841
42,557
Reported annual family pretax
income (constant 2002 dollars)
31,981
49,552
Reported consumption as
percent of reported income
81
86
Note: 1960/61 suvey results deflated by CPI-U-RS index (http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/ince02/cpiurs/html);
mean value of 1960 and 1961 used.
Sources: Handbook of Labor Statistics 1975 – Reference Edition, BLS Bulletin 1865 (1978), Table 137; “Consumer
Expenditures in 2002”, BLS Reports 974, February 2004, available electronically at http://www.bls.gov/cex/cxsann02.pdf
Consumer Expenditure Patterns for Low Income Americans:
1960/61-2002
1960/61
(Families,
Lowest Quartile)
1972-73
(Families,
Lowest
Quintile)
2002
(Consumer
Units, Lowest
Quintile)
Persons per unit
2.2
1.6
1.7
Reported Annual Current
Consumption Expenditures
(constant 2002 $)
10,756
12,166
19,061
Reported Annual Pretax Income
(constant 2002 $)
9,613
8,719
8,316
Reported Consumption as a
percent of reported income
112
139
229
Note: Earlier surveys deflated by CPI-U-RS index, mean value of reported years used for 1960/61 and 1972/73.
Sources: Handbook of Labor Statistics 1975, loc. cit., Table 137; Consumer Expenditures Survey: Interview Survey 1972-73,
BLS Bulletin 1997 (1978), Volume I, Table 10; “Consumer Expenditures in 2002,” loc. cit.
Average Annual Expenditures and Income,
Lowest Income Quintile: 1984-2002
20000
15000
Annual Expenditures
Pretax Income CEX
10000
Pretax Income CPS
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
19
84
5000
Note: Income and expenditures adjusted by CPI-U.
Source: United States Census Bureau Current Population Reports: "Income in the United States, 2002." September, 2003.
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Consumer Expenditure Survey." Available online at
http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p60-221.pdf, accessed 2/28/05.
Possible factors in the rising long term ratio
of expenditures to income for lowest quintile
• Changes in survey methods/procedures
• Increased importance of non-cash benefits
• Increased importance of unreported income/gifts
• Increased year-to-year variations in household
income
Episodic vs. Chronic Poverty:
Measured Poverty for One Month vs. 48 Straight Months,
1996-1999
50
Episodic
40
Chronic
30
20
10
n
ita
po
l
et
ro
bu
r
bs
it y
lC
en
tra
Su
on
m
N
al
e
H
co
Fe
m
rie
d
ar
C
up
l
e
fa
m
o
us
M
ily
al
e
ho
e
H
U
ou lde
nr
r
se
el
ho
at
ed
ld
er
in
di
vi
du
al
ov
er
s
d
an
s
65
to
64
17
18
to
ye
ar
ar
s
ye
an
ic
isp
Bl
te
te
W
hi
ac
k
H
0
ye
ar
M
N
on
H
is
pa
n
ic
W
hi
Al
l
0
Source: “Dynamics of Economic Well-Being:Poverty 1996-1999,” U.S. Bureau of the Census, July 2003. Available
online at http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p70-91.pdf, accessed 2/27/05
Duration of Poverty Spells: 1996-1999
Note: Percent. Excludes spells underway during the first interview month
Source: “Dynamics of Economic Well-Being:Poverty 1996-1999,” U.S. Bureau of the Census, July 2003. Available
online at http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p70-91.pdf, accessed 2/27/05
Long-term Probability of Staying in Poverty, by Age:
1996-1999
1.2
1
0.8
Under 18
0.6
18 to 64
0.4
65 or Over
0.2
0
1
4
8
12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44
Month
Source: U.S. Census Bureau: “Dynamics of Economic Well-Being: Poverty, 1996 to 1999.” Available online at
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/sipp96/sipp96.html, accessed 2/27/05.
Is Year-to-Year US Income Variability Increasing?
Total Family Income Variance and Transitory Variance,
1969-1998
1.4
1.2
1
Variance
0.8
Transitory Variance
0.6
0.4
0.2
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
98
0
Source: Calculations based on PSID data. Professor Jacob S. Hacker, Yale University. Available online at
http://pantheon.yale.edu/~jhacker/PSID_Data_NYT.htm accessed 2/25/05
Composition of Expenditures
for Low-Income Households:
Changing Characteristics
Food/Nutrition
Housing/Appliances
Transportation
Health
Composition of Consumer Expenditures for USA:
1960/61 vs. 2002 (percent)
1960/61
2002
Food
(at home)
24.5
(19.6)
13.2
(7.6)
Housing
28.9
32.7
Transportation
(public)
15.3
(n/a)
19.1
(1.0)
Health & Medical Care
4.0
5.8
Other
27.3
29.2
Note: n/a = not available.
Sources: Handbook of Labor Statistics 1975, loc. cit., Table 137, “Consumer Expenditures in 2002,” loc. cit.
Composition of Consumer Expenditures for Low Income
Americans: 1960/61-2002 (percent)
1960/61
1972-73
2002
(Families, Lowest
Quartile)
(Families, Lowest
Quintile)
(Consumer Units,
Lowest Quintile)
Food
(at home)
29.0
(24.6)
24.2
(20.9)
16.7
(11.2)
Housing
33.7
37.7
34.8
Transportation
(public)
9.1
(n/a)
14.5
(1.1)
17.2
(0.8)
Health & Medical Care
8.7
6.7
11.3
Other
19.5
16.9
20.0
Note: n/a = not available
Sources: Handbook of Labor Statistics 1975, Table 137; Consumer Expenditure Series, 1972-73,
Vol I, Table 10; “Consumer Expenditures in 2002,” loc. cit.
Percentage of Household Spending Allocated to Food:
1960/61 (BLS CEX Survey)
Percemtage of Expenditures
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Under
1,000
1,0001,999
2,0002,999
3,0003,999
4,0004,999
5,0005,999
Income Level
6,0007499
7,500- 10,000- 15,000
9,999 14,999
and
over
Percentage of the U.S. Population Underweight,
1960/62-1999/2002
6
5
4
Total Underweight
3
Underweight Males
Underweight Females
2
1
0
1960-62 1971-74 1976-80
19881994
19992002
Note: Body mass index of less than 18.5 defined as underweight.
Sources: Derived from “Health USA 2004.” Available online at
ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/Health_US/hus04tables/Table069.xls, accessed 2/27/05.
Percentage of Medically Examined Low-Income Children
who are of Short Stature or Underweight: 1973-2003
15
10
Short Stature
5
Underweight
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
0
Note: “Short Stature” and “Underweight” thresholds defined at 5 percentile level of expected norms
Source: “2003 Pediatric Nutrition Surveillance National Summary of Trends in Growth and Anemia Indicators
Children Aged less than 5 years,” Table 12D. Available online at
http://www.cdc.gov/pednss/pednss_tables/html/pednss_national_table12.htm, accessed 2/28/05.
Percentage of Medially Examined Low Income Children
with Low Hemoglobin Count, 1973-2003
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
3 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
7
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20
Source: “2003 Pediatric Nutrition Surveillance National Summary of Trends in Growth and Anemia Indicators
Children Aged less than 5 years,” Table 12D. Available online at
http://www.cdc.gov/pednss/pednss_tables/html/pednss_national_table12.htm, accessed 2/28/05.
Selected Housing Characteristics:
Poor and Other Households, USA: 1970-2001
Non Poor
HHs 1970
Poor HHs
1970
All HHs
1980
Poor HHs
1980
Poor HHs
1990
Poor HHs
2001
Households with 1.00 +
persons per room
(percent)
9.8
26.9
4.5
n/a
n/a
6.0
Lacking some plumbing
facilities (percent)
3.4
17.4
1.9
n/a
n/a
2.6
Home not heated
(percent)
0.6
0.9
0.6
1.1
n/a
0.2
Mean heated square feet
of home
n/a
n/a
1499
1095
1105
1227
Average square feet
heated per household
member
n/a
n/a
534
371
385
472
Note: n/a = not available
Sources: Derived from Census of Population 1970: Subject Reports, Low-Income Population Final Report PC (2)-91: Low-Income
Population, (Bureau of the Census, 1973), Table 36; 1980 Census of Housing: Volume 1: Characteristics of Housing Units HC 80-1a
(Bureau of the Census, 1983), Table 1s. Residential Energy Consumption Survey : Housing Characteristics: 1980 Edition (Department
of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 1982, Tables 9, 26; 1990 Edition (DOE, 1992), Tables 15; 2001 edition (DOE 2003)
Table CEI-5.1a, CEI 5.2a, CE 2.3c; available electronically at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emea/rec37; American Housing Survey of the
United States (Bureau of the Census), 2001 edition (2003), Tables 2-3, 2-4.
Selected Housing Appliances: Poor and Other Households, USA:
1970-2001 (percent)
Non Poor
Households
1970
Poor
Households
1970
All
Households
1980
Poor
Households
1980
Poor
Households
1990
Poor
Households
2001
Telephone Available
90.5
70.3
n/a
n/a
81.5 (1989)
98.2
Television Set
96.8
88.4
82.0*
60.6*
90.2*
97.3*
2+ Television Sets
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
28.8
54.7
Clothes Washer
74.1
48.6
71.6**
53.7**
57.3**
64.8**
Clothes Dryer
46.3
17.2
n/a
n/a
32.1
57.8
Dishwasher
n/a
n/a
37.2
10.7
15.5
17.3
No Air Conditioning
n/a
n/a
42.8
58.8
51.7
36.0
Central Air Conditioning
n/a
n/a
28.6
14.7
16.9
45.6
Refrigerator
n/a
n/a
99.8
99.3
99.1
99.3
2+ Refrigerators
n/a
n/a
14.0
6.7
6.1
6.0
Outdoor Gas Grill
n/a
n/a
8.6
1.9
8.0
n/a
Microwave Oven
n/a
n/a
11.72
3.22
55.8
73.3
Personal Computer
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
4.9
24.7
Internet Access
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
18.0
Cable Television
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
56.7
VCR/DVD
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
78.0
Notes:
n/a = not available;
** = automatic clothes washer;
* = color television;
2 = sum of values for “most used” and “second most used” household oven.
Sources: 1970 Census, loc. cit., Table 36; RECS Housing Survey, 1980 edition, Tables 26, 37. 1990 edition,
Tables 22, 38; 2001 edition, Tables HC5-3a, HC 7-3a, America Housing Survey, 1989 edition, Table 2-4; 2001 edition, Table 2-4.
Motor Vehicle Patterns for Low Income Americans,
1972/73-2003 (percent)
1972/73
(lowest income
quintile, families)
1985
(Poverty
Households)
1989
(Poverty
Households)
2003
(Poverty
Households)
No Car
57.0
44.1
43.1
37.9
No Vehicle
n/a
39.8
37.1
26.6
One Car
n/a
45.0
48.5
48.0
2+ Cars
n/a
11.0
11.5
14.0
Memorandum item: Share of U.S. families owning one or more cars in 1960: 77%; share owning two or more cars: 15%
Note: n/a = not available
Sources: “Consumer Expenditure Survey 1972/73, loc. cit., Volume I, Table 10; American Housing Survey for the United States
(Bureau of the Census): 1985 edition (1988), Table 2-7; 1989 edition (1991), Table 2-7; 2003 edition (2004) Table 2-7.
Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970 (Bureau of the Census 1975), Vol. II, p. 717.
Per 1,000 Population
25
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
20
15
10
5
Infant Mortality Rate
Poverty Rate
1999
1995
1991
1987
1983
1979
1975
1971
1967
1963
1959
0
Per 100 Population
Poverty Rates vs. Infant Mortality Rates:
USA, White Children, 1959-2001
Sources: “Supplemental Analysis of Recent Trends in Infant Mortality,” by Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A., and
Joyce A. Martin, M.P.H. Available online at
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/pubd/hestats/infantmort/infantmort.htm, accessed 2/14/05. U.S. Census
Bureau Historical Poverty Tables, available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/histpov/perindex.html,
accessed 2/14/05. “Health USA 2004,” National Center for Health Statistics. Available online at
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus04trend.pdf, accessed 2/23/05. National Center for Health Statistics: “Deaths: Final
Data for 1997,” available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr47/nvs47_19.pdf, accessed 2/14/05.
Per 1,000 Population
30
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
25
20
15
10
5
Infant Mortality
Low Birth Weight
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1974
1970
1966
1962
1958
1954
1950
0
Per 100 Population
Infant Morality vs. Low Birth Weight:
USA, White Children, 1950-2000
Sources: “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,” July 12, 2002. Available online at
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5127a1.htm, accessed 2/23/05. “Health USA 2004,” National
Center for Health Statistics. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus04trend.pdf, accessed 2/23/05.
Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates:
US Population 25-64, 1950-2002
Rate per 100,000 Population
1000
900
800
700
Male Mortality Rate
600
Female Mortality Rate
500
400
Male Mortality Rate, no High
School Diploma
300
Female Mortality Rate, no High
School Diploma
200
100
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960*
1955
1950*
0
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, available online at
ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications?Health_US/hus04tables
Proportion of Adult Population with Untreated Dental Caries:
1960/62-1999/2000
60
55
50
45
Adults 18-64
Males 18-64
Females 18-64
Children 6-17
Males 6-17
Females 6-17
40
35
30
25
20
1960-62*
1971-74
1988-94
1999-2000
Note: Adults ages 18-79.
Source: Source: James E. Kelly, Lawrence E. Van Kirk, and Caroline C. Garst, "Decayed, Missing and Filled
Teeth in Adults, 1960-1962",NCHS Series 11, no. 23(February 1967), DHEW, Table 4. “Health USA 2004,” National
Center for Health Statistics. Table 80, available online at
http://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/Health_US/hus04tables/Table080.xls, accessed 2/23/05.
Proportion of 65+ Population with no Remaining Natural Teeth:
1960/62-2000
50
45
40
35
30
1960-62
1971-74
1982-84
1988-94
2000
Sources: James E. Kelly, Lawrence E. Van Kirk, and Caroline Garst, "Total Loss of Teeth in Adults: United States,
1960-62) NCHS Series 11, no 27, October 1967, DHEW, p.2. “Health USA 2004,” National Center for Health Statistics.
Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus04trend.pdf, accessed 2/23/05.
Percent of children under 18 years without a health care visit
in the past year, by percent of poverty threshold
40
35
30
Percent
25
20
15
10
<100%
100% - <200%
5
200%+
0
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
Data Source: National Health Interview Survey
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Additional Indicators of
Wellbeing:
Subjective Wellbeing (Happiness)
Income and Happiness
Source: From “Happiness: Does Social Science Have a Clue?” by Richard Layard. Lionel Robbins Memorial
Lectures, delivered on 3, 4, 5 March 2003 at the London School of Economics. Available online at
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/events/lectures/layard/RL030303.pdf. Accessed 2/22/05.
Income and Happiness in the USA
Source: From “Happiness: Does Social Science Have a Clue?” by Richard Layard. Lionel Robbins Memorial
Lectures, delivered on 3, 4, 5 March 2003 at the London School of Economics. Available online at
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/events/lectures/layard/RL030303.pdf. Accessed 2/22/05.
Suicide Rate, 1900-2002
Per 100,000 Population
18
15
12
9
1900 1909 1918 1927 1936 1945 1954 1963 1972 1981 1990 1999
Sources: “Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970.” U.S. Census Bureau. Available
online at http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/CT1970p1-09.pdf, accessed 2/15/05. National
Center for Health Statistics Data Warehouse, HIST 290. Available online at
http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/CT1970p1-09.pdf, accessed 2/15/05. National Center for
Health Statistics Data Warehouse, Provisional Tables on Births, Marriages, Divorces and Deaths, 2000-2002.
Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpubd/nvstab52.htm, accessed 2/16/05.
Effects on Happiness
Fall in
happiness
(points)
Financial Situation
Family income down by a third
2
Family Relationships
Divorced (rather than married)
Separated (rather than married)
Widowed (rather than married)
Never married (rather than married)
Cohabiting (rather than married)
5
8
4
4.5
2
Work
Unemployed (rather than employed)
Job insecure (rather than secure)
Unemployment rate up 10 percentage points
6
3
3
Community and Friends
“In general, people can be trusted” -- Percentage of citizens saying yes
down by 50 percentage points
1.5
Health
Subjective health down 1 point (on a 5-point scale)
6
Personal Freedom
Quality of Government – Belarus 1995 rather than Hungary 1995
5
Personal values
“God is important in my life” -- you say no to this rather than yes.
3.5
Source: Happiness: Lessons from a New Science, by Richard Layard. Penguin Press: New York, 2005
Additional Indicators
Crime/Physical Security
Total and Violent Crime Rates:
USA, 1965-2002
Rate per 100,000 Population
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
Total Crime
Violent Crime
2000
1000
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Available online at
http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState.cfm, accessed 2/14/05
Homicide Rate:
USA, 1950-2002
Per 100,000 Population
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Source: “Homicide trends in the United States,” Bureau of Justice Statistics Sept. 28, 2004. Available online at
www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide, accessed 2/27/05.
Recorded robbery rate per 1,000 population:
USA and Selected Countries, 1980-2000
From: “Cross-National Studies in Crime and Justice,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, Sept. 2004. Available online at
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cnscj.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.
U.S. Incarceration Rate, 1977-2003
Per 100,000 Population
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Sources: “Correctional populations in the United States, 1997” U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice
Statistics. Available online at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/incrttab.htm, accessed 2/14/05.
“Prisoners in 2003” U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics. Available online at
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/incrttab.htm, accessed 2/14/05.
Jail and Prison Population:
USA,1980-2003
2300000
2100000
1900000
1700000
1500000
1300000
1100000
900000
700000
500000
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Note: Totals for 1998 through 2003 exclude probationers in jail or prison.
Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics Correctional Surveys (The Annual Probation Survey,
National Prisoner Statistics, Survey of Jails, and The Annual Parole Survey.) Available online at
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/corr2tab.htm, accessed 2/14/05.
Percent of Men Incarcerated, Midyear 2003
14
12
10
White
8
Black
6
Hispanic
4
2
0
18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34
35-39 40-44 45-54
55+
Source: “Prison and Jail Inmates at Midyear 2003,” By Paige M. Harrison and Jennifer C. Karberg, May 2004
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pjim03.pdf.
“Based on current rates of first incarceration,
an estimated 32% of black males will enter
State or Federal prison during their lifetime,
compared to 17% of Hispanic males and 5.9%
of white males.”
--Criminal Offenders Statistics,
DOJ Bureau of Justice Statistics Website
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/crimoff.htm#findings
December 28, 2004
Additional Indicators:
Dependence on Means-Tested
Government Benefits
Welfare Dependence in America:
Percentage of HHs Receiving Cash Aid and Non-Cash
Benefits vs the Family Poverty Rate, USA 1979-2002
25
20
15
Non Cash Benefits
Cash Aid
10
Family Poverty Rate
5
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
0
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995 available online at
http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/index.htm, accessed 2/26/05. CPS Annual Population Survey: U.S. Census
Bureau and BLS, various years available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/dinctabs.html , accessed 2/26/05.
Additional Indicators:
Family Stability
First Marriage Rate, 1972-1990
Rate per 1,000 Population
1000
950
900
850
800
Women
Men
750
700
650
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
600
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2003, Table 83. Available online at
http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/03statab/vitstat.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.
Marriage and Divorce Rates: USA, 1950-2001
Rate per 1,000 Population
12
10
8
6
Marriage
Divorce
4
2
19
50
19
54
19
58
19
62
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
0
Source: “Monthly Vital Statistics Report,” July 14, 1995. National Center for Health Statistics. Available online at
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/mvsr/supp/mv43_12s.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.
Percentage of Children Born to Unmarried Women:
USA, 1940-2002
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
00
20
96
19
92
19
88
19
84
19
80
19
76
19
72
19
68
19
64
19
60
19
56
19
52
19
48
19
44
19
19
40
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2003. Available online at
http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-14.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.
Percentage of Children Living with Both Biological Parents,
USA 1980-1996
70
60
50
All
White
40
Black
30
20
*
80 9 81 9 82 9 83 9 84 9 85 9 86 9 87 9 88 9 89 9 90 9 91 9 92 9 93 9 94 9 95 96
9
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 19
* Traditional nuclear family: married biological parents and biological siblings in nuclear household.
Sources: Census Bureau Current Population Reports: “Living Arrangements of Children, 1996,” pp. 70-74. Available
online at http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/p70-74.pdf, accessed 3/1/05.
Childhood Expectancy of the Duration of Living in Selected Family Structures (in years,
from birth to age 15) by child’s Birth Status: Children of the FFS Female Respondents,
early 1990s
Country
Single
Mother
(weighted
average)
In a
Maternal
Stepfamily
Not with
Mother
Total
with
Parents
Apart
Italy
0.52
0.16
0.13
0.81
Spain
0.72
0.35
0.07
1.14
Slovenia
0.61
0.55
0.09
1.25
Belgium
0.82
0.53
0.06
1.41
Switzerland
1.03
0.36
0.31
1.70
Poland
1.46
0.68
0.26
2.40
Hungary
1.46
0.68
0.26
2.40
France
1.55
0.76
0.13
2.44
Finland
1.44
0.76
0.31
2.50
Sweden
2.08
0.75
0.33
3.16
Czech Republic
1.35
1.71
0.12
3.18
Canada
2.38
0.93
0.08
3.39
Austria
2.32
1.36
0.26
3.97
Latvia
2.14
1.57
0.26
3.97
Germany
2.69
1.20
0.10
3.99
New Zealand
2.96
1.41
0.71
5.08
United States
2.70
1.87
0.56
5.12
Notes: Countries are listed in ascending order according to the expected duration of living (in years) with parents apart (shown in col. 7). See Figure 1
for definitions of the lables for columns 1 to 6. Columns 1 to 6 are derived from synthetic cohorts at early 1990 rates. The difference between 15 years
and the value tin column 7 is the childhood expectancy of the duration of living with both biological parents. In the United States, e.g., that
expectancy is 9.88 years.
Source: “Shifting Child Rearing to Single Mothers: Results from 17 Western Nations.” Population and Development Review 29(1): 47-71. March 2003.
(Heuveline, P.; Timberlake, J.M.; Furstenberg, F.F. Jr.)
Abortion Number, Ratio and Rate 1970-2001
Note: Data for 1998-99 excludes estimates for AK, CA, NH, and OK, which did not report number of legal abortions. Data
for 2001-02 excludes estimates for AK, CA, and NH, which did not report number of legal abortions. Beginning in 1996, the
ratio was based on births reported by the NCHS, CDC.
From: “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: Abortion Surveillance,” Nov. 26, 2004. Available online at
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/PDF/ss/ss5309.pdf, accessed 2/14/05.
Additional Indicators:
Religion in personal life
Judeo-Christians as a Proportion of Americans:
1972-2002
100
(percentage)
95
90
85
80
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
19
72
75
Source: Derived from “The Vanishing Protestant Majority” by Tom W. Smith and Seokho Kim. NORC / University of Chicago,
July 2004. GSS Social Change Report No. 49, Table 2.
Percentage of Population who Agree with the Statement,
“Religion plays a very important role in my life.”
Selected Countries, 2002
From: The Economist, November 8, 2003.
Percentage of U.S. Population that Belongs to a Church:
1960-2000
From: The Economist, November 8, 2003.
Additional Indicators:
Financial Emergencies
National 4-Year Cumulative Foreclosure Rates for All
FHA Loans Originated during Fiscal Years 1980–1998
From: Mortgage Financing: Changes in the Performance of FHA-Insured Loans Report to the Chairwoman, Subcommittee
on Housing and Community Opportunity, Committee on Financial Services, House of Representatives, July 2002.
Some Possible Additional Indicators:
• age-standardized mortality
by poverty status
• incarceration/probation-free
life expectancy trends
• trends and characteristics of
population suffering
financial emergencies
(bankruptcy, eviction,
repossession, utilities
shutoff, etc.)
• trends/characteristics of “no
fixed address” population
• trends in rates of total first
marriage and total first
divorce
• trends in children living with
both biological parents
• indicators of religion in
personal life
• deprivation indicators for
Native American/Indian
reservation population