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SAMI Consulting Robust decisions in uncertain times The Road to 2035 Chris Yapp Cass Business School 1st April 2014 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1 Three Horizons (IFF) Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2 Robust decisions in uncertain times Source: Carlotta Perez www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3 Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4 Robust decisions in uncertain times The World of 2035 Life in 2035 Energy 2035 5 Robust decisions in uncertain times Matter Energy Information 6 New materials Robust decisions in uncertain times Graphene Protocells www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7 Some key Technologies Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • • Cloud Computing Internet of Things 3D Printing Smart Cities LIDAR New Materials Synthetic Biology www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8 The Next waves of Computing Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • Augmented Reality Internet of Things Virtual Reality Big Data 3D printing Gamification www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9 Internet of Things Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10 Smart cities Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 11 Sensor nets Robust decisions in uncertain times Landslides Flood management www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12 Smart grids Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 13 Challenges in ICT Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • Driving up Demand for energy Adjusting to the low carbon world Growth of Wireless Critical National Infrastructure – Spectrum – Electricity – Solar Flares www.samiconsulting.co.uk 14 It’s about the people… Robust decisions in uncertain times • Food Security • Patterns of Work/Career/Commut ing…. • Values – Privacy – Social Vertical Farms www.samiconsulting.co.uk 15 Governance Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • International Organisations Jurisdiction: tax and law Social Innovation/Entrepreneurs The “ John Lewis” Model Decline of the PLC? Sovereign Wealth/Private Equity/Family owned www.samiconsulting.co.uk Social Innovations of the Industrial Society Robust decisions in uncertain times • Limited Liability Company • Co-op, Mutuals, Friendly societies, Building societies • Trade Unions • Schools, Libraries, Museums, Modern University • Police, Fire Services • NHS • Local Authorities • …. www.samiconsulting.co.uk What we think we know Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • Key Trends Discontinuities Roadblocks Events • The Asian Century? • Population and migration • Health • Education • Food security • Energy security • Climate and Environment • Technology Progress • The Future is faster! www.samiconsulting.co.uk A trend is your friend until it bends Robust decisions in uncertain times • Population – – – – – – – • Technology Ageing Arab Spring Women’s rights Chinese migration Resource Wars Education and skills Obesity – R&D Productivity Pharma – New materials: Architecture – 3D Printing – Energy Security – Internet of Things www.samiconsulting.co.uk Interaction between Technology and Society Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • Social values Open and Closed? Institutional maturity Legal Frameworks Jurisdiction War and instability “The Stone Age didn’t finish because we ran out of stones” Sheik Yamani www.samiconsulting.co.uk 20 What we tend to overlook Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • Events: The next Los Angeles Earthquake How many countries in 2035? Religion… How many companies from 1995 are still around?. How many of today’s will exist in 2035? www.samiconsulting.co.uk High-Technology Myths Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • • • • Change is exponential Technology is inevitable Important new products arrive ever faster The rising tide of valuable information Today’s high-tech price reductions are unprecedented Products are adopted faster Invention gestation time is decreasing The internet changes everything Moore’s law really matters Source: Futurehype, Bob Seidensticker www.samiconsulting.co.uk 22 Thoughts on Energy Futures Robust decisions in uncertain times • Centralised vs decentralised generation and consumption • Systemic Risk • Local Solutions vs Global • Energy Saving and management • Market vs. State vs. ? • Fuel Poverty • Past over optimism on Nuclear? www.samiconsulting.co.uk 23 Why do we get it wrong? • • • • • • • • Robust decisions in uncertain times Today!!! Prisoners of Language Timing Unintended consequences Sources of Innovation Ask the wrong question/people? Culture: Cognitive Bias: Dominant Logic Events www.samiconsulting.co.uk 24