Transcript Biglarbigi Distinguished Lecture

Distinguished Lecturer
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Unlocking Ten Trillion Barrels of Global Oil Shale
Resources - The State of the Industry
Khosrow Biglarbigi
INTEK, Incorporated
Society of Petroleum Engineers
Distinguished Lecturer Program
www.spe.org/dl
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Poll Question
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Poll Question
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Poll Question
How many years of experience do you
have?
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Poll Question
What geographic region are you from?
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Demand For Liquid Hydrocarbon Worldwide
Million Barrels Per Day
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
Source: IEA 2012
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
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Global Liquid Hydrocarbon Supply
Million Barrels per Day
120
100
NGL
80
CTL
GTL
Future Discoveries
Oil Sands Oil Shale
?
60
Heavy Oil EOR
Shale Oil
Bio Fuels
40
Oil – Existing Fields
20
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
Source: IEA, 2012
2025
2030
2035
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What is Oil Shale?
Syn- Crude
Naphtha
Rock
Kerogen
Jet Fuel
700 - 800°F
Pyrolysis
Diesel
Nat. Gas
Hydrogen
Upgrade
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10 Trillion Barrels of Shale Oil Worldwide
Estonia
Canada
France
Italy
United States
Morocco
Russia
Israel
Jordan
China
Egypt
Zaire
Brazil
Australia
Countries With Oil Shale Deposits
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Known Resources (Barrels)
Asia
27 Billion
Australia
32 Billion
Africa
100 Billion
Europe
120 Billion
MENA
Eurasia
153 Billion
270 Billion
Americas
Source: USGS, 2005
* Jordan NRA, 2009
6,100 Billion
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America’s Oil Shale
Most Concentrated Hydrocarbon Deposit
2 Trillion Barrels
6 Trillion Barrels
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Source: US DOE, 2004
Substantial Areal Density
1000 Barrels Per Acre
1,500
1,250
Oil Shale
1,300
1,000
800
750
500
500
250
70
100
0
Wyoming
USA
Utah
USA
Colorado
USA
Alaska N.
Slope Oil
Canada
Oil Sands
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Source: Oil and Gas Journal, August 2004
The Mahogany Zone
• The Most Prolific
• Up to 1000 Ft Thick
• Up to 75 Gal/Ton
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Source: Redleaf Resources, 2008
Canada’s Known Oil Shale Resources
15.24 Billion Barrels
Ontario
Source: USGS SIR-5294. 2005
12.00
ManitobaSaskatchewan
Nova Scotia
1.25
New Brunswick
0.29
1.70
Europe’s Known Oil Shale Resources
120 Billion Barrels
Italy
73.0
Estonia
16.0
France
7.0
Belarus
7.0
Sweden
6.0
UK
3.5
Germany
2.0
Luxembourg
0.7
Others
4.5
Source: USGS SIR-5294. 2005, USGS GSC 523, 1966, Cokorilo 2009, and Gulbay 2007.
Asia’s Known Oil Shale Resources
292 Billion Barrels
Russian Federation 248
China
16
Uzbekistan
8.4
Turkmenistan
7.7
Thailand
6.4
Kazakhstan
2.8
Myanmar/Burma
2.0
Armenia
0.3
Mongolia
0.3
Source: USGS SIR-5294. 2005, USGS GSC 523, 1966, Sawannathong 2007, and Nummedal 2009.
MENA’s Known Oil Shale Resources
155 Billion Barrels
Source: USGS SIR-5294, 2005 and Verson 2006.
Jordan
90.0
Morocco
53.0
Eqypt
5.7
Israel
4.0
Turkey
2.0
Southern Africa’s Known Oil Shale Resources
100 Billion Barrels
Congo
100
South Africa
0.1
Madagascar
---
Sources: USGS SIR-5294. 2005,
Hunt 2007, and Catuneanu 2005
Australia’s Known Oil Shale Resources
32 Billion Barrels
Australia
New Zealand
Sources: USGS SIR-5294. 2005,
Uranium, Oil & Gas Limited 2008,
and Resmex Plc 2005
31.7
---
South America’s Known Oil Shale Resources
82.4 Billion Barrels
Brazil
Sources: USGS SIR-5294. 2005
82.0
Argentina
0.4
Chile
---
Oil Shale Production Processes
Surface Process
Resource
Mining
Retort
Upgrading
Refinery
Choke Point
In-Situ Process
Resource
Drilling
Heating
Upgrading
Refinery
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Source: US DOE, 2004
Shell In-Situ Conversion Process
Being Tested in Jordan
High Value Products
Light Surface
Processing
PRODUCER
HEATER
OVERBURDEN
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Source: US DOE, 2008
Ecoshale In-Capsule Technology
Early Production System Test (Utah, USA)
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Source: Redleaf Resources, 2008
Alberta Taciuk Processor (ATP)
Combustion
zone
Retort
Vapour
tube
500°C
Preheat
tubes
Cooling
zone
Oil shale
feed
250°C
750°C
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Source: US DOE, 2006
Gas Combustion / Heating Retort (GCR)
Raw Shale
Oil Mist
Extractors
• Brazil (4,000 Bbl/d)
PREHEATING
MIST FORMATION
• China (4,000 Bbl/d)
PYROLYSIS
STRIPPING
• Estonia (6,000 Bbl/d)
COMBUSTION
• Australia (Project Scale Up)
RESIDUE
COOLING
Source: US DOE, 2007
Spent Shale
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Energy Return on Investment (EROI)
12
10
EROI =
Energyout - Energyin
Oil Sands
Energyin
EROI
8
6
4
10
Oil Shale
7
7
5
2
3
0
Oil Shale
(In-Situ)
Source: US DOE, 2007
Oil Shale
(In-Situ,
Non.Elec.)
Oil Shale
(Surface)
Oil Sands
(Surface)
Oil Sands
(In-Situ)
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“Oil shale is a local
asset under global
constraints.”
Klaus Brendow, Senior Advisor
World Energy Council
June 9, 2009
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Economic Price for Oil Shale Technology
$80
$75
Rate of Return – 15%
$70
2007 Dollars Per Bbl
$60
$62
$60
$50
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
True
In-Situ
Source: INTEK, Inc., 2014
Hybrid
Surface
Mining
Underground
Mining 29
Oil Shale Project Costs
Item
Unit
Capital Cost
$/BPD
O&M Cost
$/Bbl
Range**
*
45K-65K
20 - 42
* Barrel of Daily Capacity
** Does not include Hybrid Technology
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Source: INTEK, Inc., 2009
Oil Shale Environmental Impacts
Air Quality
Process Plant
Use
• CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery
• Sequestration
• Other Industrial Uses
Capture and Clean
Existing Technology
HC
Gas
CO2
SOx
NOx
Oil Shale Processing
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Source: SPE #110590, 2007
Land Use Depends On The Process
• 1 MMBbl/D Production for 40 Years
– Surface: 30 Square Miles
– In-Situ:
15 Square Miles
• Example for 2.5 MMBbl/D Industry:
– 52 Square Miles
Green River (USA)
2.5 MMBbl/d
17,000
Square
Miles
52 Square Miles
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Source: SPE #110590, 2007
Water Requirements
• 1-3 Barrels of Water per
Barrel of Shale Oil
• Challenges:
–Water rights
–Water availability
–Water runoff
–Ground water protection
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Source: US DOE, 2007
The Prize (USA Example)
Total Resource
6 Trillion Barrels
High Quality Resource
2 Trillion Barrels
Technical Recovery
1 Trillion Barrels
Reserves
600 – 750
Billion Bbls
@
$50 - $65 / Bbl
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Source: INTEK, Inc., 2008
Reserves Potential Worldwide
1,400
U.S.
Worldwide
Billion Barrels
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
$50 - $65
$75 - $90
Oil Price ($/Bbl)
$90 - $130
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Summary
•
Over 10 trillion barrels of in place resource
•
Conversion technologies are advancing rapidly
•
Estimated reserves of up to 1.3 trillion barrels worldwide
•
Oil Price is a key driver for its development
•
Requires concerted effort by the private sector,
governments, and local communities
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