Transcript Public Opinion and the Media

Public Opinion
and the Media
Public Opinion
• Definition
– It’s hard to define
• Which “public”—there are multiple groups that Americans fit into.
– Basically, those attitudes held by a “significant” number of people on
matters of gov’t and politics
• Factors that Shape Public Opinion
– Family
– The Schools
• Indoctrination?
– Mass Media
• TV, radio, internet, newspapers, magazines
– “Opinion leaders”
• a person who, for any reason, has an unusually strong influence on the views of
others
• Examples—public office holders, media, religious figures, community organizers
– Historic Events—influence the way people see the world
• Example—the Great Depression  How could someone ave easily gone from
conservative to liberal in this era?
Public Opinion
• Measuring Public Opinion
– There are a variety of ways that public opinion is expressed in the U.S.
• Though we hear radio commentators or watch TV figures, we must ask do what degree
do these voices represent the “public opinion”—in other words we must measure it.
How?
– Elections
• Results at the ballot box represent one expression of public opinion
• Sometimes elections, especially if the results are lopsided, represent a “mandate” for a
candidate to carry out his/her campaign promises.
• Limitations to Elections as a measurement of public opinion
– not specific enough; people chose candidates for lots of different reasons—at best only useful
indicators.
– Interest Groups
• These groups make their opinion known on issues and thus try to represent public
opinion
– But again, how many people are in interest groups? Does it really represent enough people to call
interest groups opinions public opinion?
– The Media
• Editorials, blogs, television commentators, and columns are all good indicators of public
opinion, but too often they’re just a vocal minority, not true public opinion
– Personal Contacts
• Examples—like writing a letter to the President, calling your Congressman, etc.
• Can these contacts be taken to speak for the “people”?—obviously limited
Public Opinion
• Measuring Public Opinion
– Polls—The Best Measure
• devices that attempt to collect information by asking
people questions
• Types
–
–
–
–
Straw Polls
Exit Polls
Push Polls
Scientific Polling
Types of Polls
• Straw Polls
– This refers to an attempt to read the public mind by asking the
same question to large numbers of people
– Example
• Radio talk show host asks question and then asks callers to call in
• Political events might have a straw poll at the door
• Based on the responses can we say this is representative of public
opinion?
– Most political scientists argue no—there’s no guarantee that the people who
called in represent a cross section of the US  it’s not a random sample
• Exit Polls
– taken as people exit their voting location. Gives the public a
sense of who’s winning.
• But this was wrong BIG time in 2004—people actually voted for Bush,
but didn’t want to say so b/c it wasn’t the “cool” thing to do
• Push polls
– used by candidates to influence the election
• call and ask a question that slams your opponent—“pushes” the voter
in your direction, but can backfire.
Types of Polls
• Scientific Polling
– Developed in the 1930s by George Gallup,
scientists developed a set of techniques to
accurately gauge public opinion
– Today there are thousands of polling companies
taking public opinion throughout the US
• the most well known are the Gallup Poll, Farris Survey,
Rasmussen, etc.
• Most political consultants today conduct their own
polling as well, so essentially every single candidate
does their own polling, even if it’s only internal polling
(not to be published for the public to see)
Scientific Polling—The Polling Process
• Five Basic Steps
• 1. Define the “universe” to be surveyed
– This is the group whose opinion pollsters seek to discover
• Examples—high schoolers, voters in Atlanta, Catholic women under 35, etc.
• 2. Construct a Sample
– usually there’s no way to poll everyone
– So you must construct a sample—a representative slice of the
total universe
– Most pollsters try to get a random sample—interview randomly
selected people within your universe
• Some pollsters also try to construct a “quota sample” in which each group
is represented as a proportion of their % in the population.
– A usual national survey seeks to poll 1500 people
• Seems small (out of 200 million), but laws of probability tell us that the
results will be accurate within an acceptable “margin of error”—usually +/3%.
Scientific Polling—The Polling Process
• Five Basic Steps (cont.)
• 3. Prepare Valid Questions
– Preparing a carefully worded questions is essential for
accurate polling data
– Pollsters phrase their questions to avoid “loaded” questions
that would push people to answer a certain way
• But still, how they frame the question is important (we’ll look at an
example of the next slide)
– One should always figure out when looking at polling data—
what was the question asked and what are the tabs (who
was asked, etc.)?
• Could lead to doubts about accuracy
Framing
• Positive Framing
– Which would you choose—Treatment A or Treatment B?
• Negative Framing
– Which would you choose—Treatment A or Treatment B?
• Treatment A was chosen by 72% of participants when it was
presented with positive framing ("saves 200 lives") dropping to
only 22% when the same choice was presented with negative
framing ("400 people will die").
• The probabilities for these were the same! So why the different
results?
Scientific Polling—The Polling Process
• Five Basic Steps (cont.)
• 4. Interviewing
– Many choices—door-to-door, face-to-face, phone, etc.
– Lots of psychology to an interview—tone of the
interviewer, etc., can offend the respondent and throw
off the data.
• 5. Analyze and Report Findings
– Wade through the data, make reasonable conclusions,
and publish findings
Public Opinion
• Evaluating Polls
– What effects do polls have on our political process?
• Bandwagon Effect
– Polls can interfere with the political process by creating a bandwagon
effect. When the public hears that a particular candidate is ahead, some
undecided voters jump on the bandwagon and support the leading
candidate (“herd instinct”).
• Name Recognition Effect
– A candidate who looks good in the polls has an easier time raising
campaign funds and getting media attention (key to name recognition).
These are key factors in getting elected
• Deterrence Effect
– Polls showing that one candidate is far ahead may deter other potential
candidates from running.
• Nonvoter Effect
– When a race is projected as decided before Election Day, some citizens
may not vote.
• Time-Zone Effect
– Release of exit poll results during voting hours discourages some from
voting (time-zone effect is especially troubling).
The Media—Forms of Media
• Print Media
– Newspapers
• Most are local (AJC/Athens Banner Herald)
• Some are nationwide
– New York Times (liberal), Wall Street Journal (conservative), and Washington Post (liberal)
– Magazines
• Time (conservative)
• Newsweek (liberal)
• U.S. News and World Report (centerist)
– Radio
• Talk Radio dominates
• Names like Rush Limbaugh and Neal Boortz air conservative views daily with callers
– TV
• “Mainstream Media”
– News outlets such as ABC, CBS, and NBC
• Cable News outlets have become popular
– Feature 24 hour news coverage
» Fox (conservative), MSNBC (liberal), and CNN (moderate) dominate
– You will find your “talking heads”- Rachel Maddow, Sean Hannity, etc.
– Public Media
• Radio—NPR
• TV—News Hour with Jim Lehrer
– Remember that as publically owned media outlets, these organizations are required by
law to be fair and avoid bias, but even they lean liberal
The Media
• Forms of Media (cont.)
– Internet
• So many forms of media and media access
• Blogs and listservs are some of the most important forms of political
communication today
• Internet played such a crucial role in the 2004 & 2008 elections—
websites, Youtube debates, now read newspaper online, social media
(Facebook, Twitter, etc.)
The Media
• Functions of Media
– Before we run through the functions of media, remember that
one of the most important functions is that of “Linkage
institution”—the media as a linkage institution to the government
• Some like to consider the media as a 4th branch of government
– Entertainment- Saturday Night Live/John Stewart/Stephen Colbert
• Remember the mass media is a business and they want to be rated above
all others—governed by the profit motive.
– Gatekeeper
• Keeps “radical” voices out of politics, exposes American people
– Agenda Setting
• Focuses on issues, thus sets agenda
– Scorekeeper- “horse race”
• Keeps track of who’s winning and losing in politics.
– Watchdog
• Keeps politicians, corporations, etc., honest
– Report
• Inform public of events/issues
The Media
• Effects of Media
– Weakened the parties
• Before TV, candidates really relied on the party structure to get
out the vote, pay for campaigns, etc.
• Now with TV and the Internet and candidate can get their
message out without party manpower.
– The Emergence of “Image”
• Because you can see a candidate on TV, image matters much
more
• Candidates are “packaged” these days in ways they never were
before.
• Substance loses out to image
The Media
• Effects of Media
– Spin factor
• These days with media everywhere, candidates often try to “spin” an
negative issues that come up—twist it to their advantage
• Candidates even hire “spin doctors” who are experts at public
relations and media manipulation
• Is this good for American politics?
– Sound Bites
• TV promotes a short attention span amongst viewers with remote
controls
• Thus, candidates focus on “sounds bites” (snappy little blurbs that
can be aired in seconds) to get their message across
• This tends to minimize serious discussion
– Access to Information
• On the positive side, the growth of TV and the Internet has
expanded access exponentially—you can find out more than ever
about politics.
Review
1. Public opinion is difficult to define
because
–
–
–
–
(a) everyone shares the same views.
(b) there are many groups and issues to account for.
(c) no one is allowed to have opinions.
(d) none of the above.
2. The mass media consist of
– (a) friends and family.
– (b) neighbors.
– (c) newspapers, magazines, television, and the Internet.
– (d) peer groups.
Review
1. A straw vote
– (a) correctly predicted the outcome of the 1936 election.
– (b) is a method of polling that asks a large amount of people the same
question.
– (c) is a very reliable type of polling.
– (d) measures the opinion of only the rural community.
2. To pollsters, the universe is
– (a) a private organization whose members share certain views and work to
shape public policy.
– (b) all of outer space.
– (c) a probability sample.
– (d) the whole population that a poll aims to measure.
Review
1.
Which of the following are major media?
–
–
–
–
(a) television
(b) newspapers
(c) magazines
(d) all of the above
2.
All of the following are considered conservative “talking
heads” EXCEPT?
–
–
–
–
(a) Bill O’Reilly
(b) Rachel Maddow
(c) Rush Limbaugh
(d) Sean Hannity