Transcript Presentazione di PowerPoint

Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e
Climatologia Aeronautica
Common Verification Suite
Zurich, 20-23 Sep 2005
Alessandro GALLIANI, Patrizio EMILIANI, Adriano RASPANTI
CONTENT
1.
Software for ground and vertical profiles forecasts vs. observations analysis,
was realized as reported in the technical specifications
2.
Package production:
Ground: SCR CONTINUOUS STATISTICAL INDEX and SCR
CATEGORICAL STATISTICAL INDEX
Upper levels : SCR CONTINUOUS STATISTICAL INDEX
3.
Preliminary analysis example made at CNMCA
4.
Conclusions
Package main features
• Ground and vertical profiles index production.
•Possibility to perform verification at 00-UTC and 12-UTC run.
•Is possible to use the package to verify different models (at the
present time Local model, ECMWF) introducing orography and land
sea mask files.
•The software can be used to analyse data different from GRIB and
BUFR format, producing input observation and forecast in form of
text files having the same structures of the pre processing output.
•MARS archive retrieve
LAMI - Ground “single station” verification for June 2005 - 00 UTC run
TEMP_s_20050601_20050630_00.dat – (TEMPERATURE analysis)
FCT
+03
+06
+09
+12
+15
+18
+21
+24
+27
+30
+33
+36
+39
+42
+45
ME
-0.57
-0.38
1.07
3.01
1.38
-1.09
-1.71
-1.14
-0.89
-0.33
1.92
3.63
1.86
-0.82
-1.43
MAE
1.45
1.36
2.18
3.40
2.27
1.46
2.04
1.72
1.38
1.12
2.33
3.78
2.55
1.25
1.77
MSE
2.99
2.77
6.18
14.10
7.10
3.80
5.66
3.81
2.92
2.02
7.41
16.95
7.89
3.18
4.60
RMSE
1.73
1.67
2.49
3.76
2.66
1.95
2.38
1.95
1.71
1.42
2.72
4.12
2.81
1.78
2.14
MME
-0.80
-0.50
1.55
3.45
1.80
-1.20
-1.80
-1.35
-1.10
-0.20
1.90
4.20
2.55
-0.60
-1.60
AMME
1.30
1.10
1.85
3.45
2.10
1.30
1.80
1.55
1.30
0.90
2.50
4.20
2.60
1.15
1.75
Q1
-1.60
-1.20
0.65
1.75
0.40
-1.60
-2.50
-2.00
-1.60
-1.05
1.50
2.60
1.35
-1.70
-2.10
Q3
0.60
1.00
2.75
4.70
3.00
0.10
-1.10
-0.60
-0.10
0.60
3.20
4.60
3.35
0.20
-0.70
AQ1
0.60
0.80
1.40
2.30
1.50
0.60
1.40
0.90
0.50
0.40
1.60
2.60
1.60
0.30
0.90
AQ3
2.00
1.60
3.05
4.70
3.40
1.70
2.50
2.30
1.90
1.85
3.20
4.60
3.55
1.70
2.20
Ndata
26
25
24
24
25
27
27
26
26
24
23
23
24
26
26
LAMI - Ground “single station” verification for June 2005 - 12 UTC run
PREC_s_20050601_20050630_12.dat – (PRECIPITATION analysis)
FCT
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+12
TRS
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
0.0
A
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
B
6.00
5.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
C
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
D
17.00
18.00
21.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
23.00
24.00
24.00
24.00
24.00
24.00
24.00
24.00
24.00
20.00
FBI
6.00
5.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
4.00
POD
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
0.00
FAR
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
1.00
F
0.26
0.22
0.09
0.09
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.17
KSS
-0.26
-0.22
-0.09
-0.09
-0.04
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
-0.17
TS
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
0.00
ETS
-0.04
-0.04
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
-0.03
LAMI - Ground “total” verification for June 2005 - 00 UTC run
TEMP_s_20050601_20050630_00.TOT – (TEMPERATURE analysis)
016522
0.70
016531
2.23
016539
0.51
016546
0.85
016549
1.52
016550
1.51
016560
0.85
016564 9999.90
ME AVG
0.27
Station
63
ID
016020
016021
016022
016033
016036
016040
016045
016059
016061
016064
016066
016076
016080
016084
016088
016090
016094
-0.29
9999.90
0.11
9999.90
0.46
1.33
1.07
9999.90
0.18
67
-2.54
0.28
-1.53
0.80
-2.90
-2.26
2.07
-2.20
0.81
89
-3.29
1.77
-2.92
2.00
-4.44
-4.27
3.43
-4.37
1.05
89
-3.11
0.58
-2.71
1.45
-4.73
-2.93
2.48
-3.63
0.01
88
-1.52
-0.13
-2.27
-0.38
-2.24
-1.25
0.06
-1.90
-1.21
87
-0.12
0.94
-0.85
-0.78
0.03
0.64
-0.27
9999.90
-0.58
69
0.22
1.74
-0.54
-0.09
0.91
1.03
-0.05
9999.90
0.04
66
0.44
2.23
0.11
0.78
1.38
1.28
0.78
9999.90
0.38
63
-0.35
9999.90
-0.20
9999.90
0.32
1.10
1.05
9999.90
0.35
67
-2.32
0.40
-1.31
1.40
-2.91
-2.33
2.92
-2.31
1.10
89
-3.44
1.12
-2.92
3.02
-4.79
-4.27
3.97
-4.72
1.22
89
FCT +03 FCT +06 FCT +09 FCT +12 FCT +15 FCT +18 FCT +21 FCT +24 FCT +27 FCT +30 FCT +33 FCT +36
4.36
3.67
2.17
2.66
3.70
4.99
5.57
4.60
3.63
3.24
2.17
2.87
2.17
9999.90
2.24
2.14
2.10
1.56
1.49
1.48
1.36
9999.90
2.31
2.53
1.56
9999.90
6.41
7.01
5.89
2.69
1.98
2.01
1.98
9999.90
6.50
7.34
6.05
9999.90
3.69
4.85
5.99
7.94
7.85
6.16
4.78
9999.90
3.47
4.54
9999.90
1.94
1.16
2.15
1.06
1.43
1.47
9999.90 9999.90
1.54
1.26
2.01
9999.90 9999.90
1.53
1.93
2.11
3.33
9999.90 9999.90 9999.90 9999.90
2.00
2.17
9999.90
1.45
1.46
2.15
9999.90 9999.90 9999.90 9999.90 9999.90
1.43
1.81
2.45
1.38
1.27
1.98
3.17
2.53
1.31
1.34
1.32
1.40
1.18
2.43
3.58
1.20
9999.90
6.45
8.63
7.36
3.60
1.81
1.46
1.57
9999.90
7.55
9.72
9999.90
2.20
2.40
4.54
3.55
2.13
9999.90 9999.90 9999.90
2.31
3.17
5.02
2.66
2.32
2.48
4.96
4.08
2.12
2.15
2.85
2.54
2.70
3.11
5.38
9999.90
1.31
1.48
2.04
1.82
1.62
1.72
1.49
9999.90
0.74
1.20
2.20
1.45
1.36
2.18
3.40
2.27
1.46
2.04
1.72
1.38
1.12
2.33
3.78
9999.90
1.71
1.81
2.22
2.06
1.60
9999.90 9999.90 9999.90
1.54
1.33
1.97
1.98
1.66
2.50
3.66
3.04
1.27
1.79
1.55
2.02
1.78
3.10
4.14
1.43
1.40
1.59
2.11
1.87
1.99
1.32
1.34
1.31
1.24
1.22
2.56
9999.90
1.35
1.54
1.62
1.57
3.60
9999.90 9999.90 9999.90
1.38
1.32
1.75
LAMI - Ground “total” verification for June 2005 - 12 UTC run
PREC_s_20050601_20050630_12.TOT – (PRECIPITATION analysis)
FCT
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+06
+12
+12
+12
+12
TRS
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
A
18.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
36.00
21.00
15.00
10.00
B
228.00
161.00
136.00
115.00
103.00
84.00
55.00
34.00
29.00
23.00
17.00
14.00
12.00
9.00
6.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
252.00
177.00
139.00
118.00
C
34.00
29.00
24.00
24.00
22.00
19.00
16.00
14.00
13.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
86.00
76.00
77.00
76.00
D
874.00
956.00
988.00
1011.00
1027.00
1049.00
1081.00
1105.00
1112.00
1121.00
1129.00
1134.00
1138.00
1142.00
1145.00
1149.00
1150.00
1151.00
1152.00
1153.00
1153.00
1153.00
1154.00
1154.00
1154.00
1154.00
1952.00
2052.00
2095.00
2122.00
FBI
4.73
4.57
4.73
4.25
4.38
4.10
3.17
2.33
2.23
2.30
2.12
2.33
3.00
3.00
2.00
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
2.36
2.04
1.67
1.49
POD
0.35
0.22
0.20
0.14
0.08
0.10
0.11
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
0.30
0.22
0.16
0.12
FAR
0.93
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.98
0.96
0.97
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
0.88
0.89
0.90
0.92
F
0.21
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.09
0.07
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.08
0.06
0.05
KSS
0.14
0.07
0.08
0.04
-0.01
0.02
0.06
0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
0.18
0.14
0.10
0.06
TS
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.05
ETS
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
9999.90
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
LAMI – Vertical profiles verification
• The same output (continuous statistical index) obtained for
ground analysis is derived at each pressure level .
• Software is completed and the output verification is in
progress.
Conclusions
•
Preliminary good results.
•
Necessity of large test case number before to release the package.
•
Documentation in progress.
•
Necessity to activate a COSMO account at ECMWF.
•
Possibility to install the package on local machine.
Questions ?
Cap. GArn SPE GALLIANI Alessandro
Email [email protected]