Transcript UKCS – State of Play, Future Opportunities

Remaining potential and opportunities
on the United Kingdom Continental
Shelf (UKCS) and the need for New
Entrants
Jim Munns DTI Manager Promote UKCS
Houston Geological Society December 2001
London PESGB January 2002
Aberdeen PESGB March 2002
British
Geological
Survey
Why the UKCS?
• 27 BBOE Yet to Find
• 2001 BUZZARD largest UKCS
discovery since 1993
• Deep water Atlantic Margin
under-explored
• Subtle traps and non-conventional
plays in the North Sea
• 35% E&A well success rate
Why the need for new companies?
• To meet government/industry aspirations
(PILOT)
• E&A activity has been low for the last
three years
• Loss of active exploration companies due
to mergers (funding)
• Not replacing production
• Maximise ultimate recoverable reserves
Atlantic
Margin
Viking
Graben
Rockall
Trough
Main basins
Central
Graben
UKCS
Irish
Sea
North
Sea
Southern
Gas
Basin
Condensate field
Gas field
Oil field
0
200 km
Licensed block
Stratigraphy
NEOGENE
vvvv
PALEOGENE
vvvv
UPPER
CRETACEOUS
LOWER
CRETACEOUS
vvvv JURASSIC
Frigg, Gryphon
Forties, Andrew, Foinaven
Kyle, Joanne, Machar
Britannia, Captain, Scapa
PRINCIPAL LITHOFACIES
Fulmar, Hutton, Millar
Beryl, Beatrice, Brent
vvv
Volcanics
Continental (aeolian)
TRIASSIC
PERMIAN
vvvv
Statfjord, Wytch Farm
Hewett, Morecambe, Judy
Argyll
Leman, Indefatigable, Auk
Continental (fluvial)
Evaporite
Carbonate
Delta/fluvial
CARBONIFEROUS
Murdoch, Schooner
Trent
Shallow marine
Basinal marine
Buchan, Clair
DEVONIAN
Principal source
rock interval
‘PILOT’ Joint Industry Government
initiative - Vision for 2010
• Production at 3 million boe/day
• Investment of £3 billion/yr
• 100,000 more jobs than would
otherwise have been
• Prolonged self sufficiency
5.0
Projected UKCS production from
discovered reserves (mmboe)
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Possible new developments
Probable developments possible upside
Approved fields possible upside
Probable new developments
Approved fields 2P
Suggested target profile
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Production from already discovered fields
5.0
Already produced
Future production
Oil Equivalent (mmboe/day)
4.5
4.0
Gas
Oil
3.5
3.0
Gas - Possible
Oil - Possible
Gas - 2P
Oil - 2P
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
UKCS Offshore oil production
by reserve ranking
Other offshore approved oilfields
Top 10 largest approved oilfields
3.0
160
133135
Number of fields.
124
120
113
2.0
99
100
81
76
1.5
80
70
56
1.0
0.5
2
7 8
18
12 14 15
20
30 32
27
25
36 38
46
60
50 48
40
20
0.0
0
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
Number of producing fields
Million barrels a day
2.5
140
1997
1999
*
Opportunities for Independents?
•
•
•
•
•
Mix of frontier and mature basins
35% E&A Success rate
Recent fall-off in E&A activity
Well developed infrastructure
Portfolio of opportunities includes
exploration, undeveloped discoveries,
and “breathing life” into mature
fields
Exploration wells vs. oil price
$
40
250
Brent Crude Oil Price
35
200
30
25
150
20
100
50 15
50
25
10
5
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
0
Exploration Wells
Number of discoveries
0
0
700
Data supplied by IHS Energy Group
600
500
400
300
200
100
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
0
1965
Average field discovery size (Mmboe)
Average discovery field size
2000
Bittern
200
1995
1990
300
1985
400
Miller
Buzzard
Schiehallion
Foinaven
Alba,
Scott
Nelson
Captain
500
Britannia
600
1980
1975
1970
1965
Average field discovery size (Mmboe)
Some specific discoveries....
700
Data supplied by IHS Energy Group
?
100
0
Atlantic
Margin
Rockall
Trough
Infrastructure
North
Sea
Irish
Sea
Condensate pipeline
Gas pipeline
Oil pipeline
Future Potential (maximum case)
Cumulative
production
Remaining recoverable
reserves (proven
+ possible)
An estimated maximum 27.2 BBOE
Yet to Find
Maximum estimate
of undiscovered
recoverable reserves
UK Undiscovered Reserves – Maximum Case
Permian or younger
paleohigh
Field
Faroe
Islands
Shetland
Scotland
NORTH
SEA
9.8
12.0
5.4
North Sea
Atlantic
Oil
Margin
Province
Southern Gas Basin,
Irish Sea & Onshore
Ireland
IRISH
SEA
England
250 km
Yet to find Maximum case: 27.2 BBOE
Future Potential (minimum case)
Ultimate Recoverable
Reserves 43.5 BBOE
Cumulative
production
Remaining recoverable
reserves (proven +
probable)
An estimated minimum 3.9 BBOE
Yet to Find
Minimum estimate
of undiscovered
recoverable reserves
UK Undiscovered Reserves – Minimum case
Permian or younger
paleohigh
Field
Faroe
Islands
Shetland
Scotland
0.8
1.5
1.6
North Sea
Oil
Province
Southern Gas Basin,
Irish Sea & Onshore
Atlantic
Margin
NORTH
SEA
Ireland
IRISH
SEA
England
250 km
Yet to Find Minimum Case : 3.9 BBOE
Source Rock
Distribution
Jurassic mudstones
Jurassic mudstones –
uncertain distribution
Carboniferous
coal measures
Carboniferous basinal
mudstones
Regional crosssection
?
NORTH SEA OIL PROVINCE
PALEOGENE
CRETACEOUS
JURASSIC
GAS PROVINCE
POST-RIFT
AGE
NEOGENE
SYNRIFT
PERMIAN
CARBONIFEROUS
PRE-RIFT
TRIASSIC
DEVONIAN
?
PRE-DEVONIAN
Sandstone (fluvial/aeolian)
Sandstone/mudstone/coal (deltaic)
Sandstone (shallow-marine)
Producing reservoir unit
Source rock unit
Sandstone (basin-floor)
Carbonate
Mudstone
Evaporite
Volcanics
Basement
Focus of future activity
• Atlantic Margin Play
• Ur.Jurassic/Lower Cretaceous
stratigraphic play
• Mesozoic basin margin play
• Deep basin axis play
• Lower Permian pinchout play
• Palaeogeomorphic play
Atlantic Margin
NW
Faroes UK
Faroe-Shetland Basin
SE
0
Sea Bed
2
P
P
P
??
Km
??
4
P
S
10 km
8
10
Lower Eocene to Recent
Upper Paleocene to Lower Eocene
Paleogene basalt
Paleocene
Basin-floor sandstone
S
Source rock
Upper Cretaceous
Lower Cretaceous
Jurassic
Permian to Triassic
Pre-Permian undifferentiated
P
Principal play
Atlantic Margin Play
Horizon: Top Mid-Eocene basin floor fan (feet)
61°50N
3°00W
0 feet
00
FA
RO
U K ES
3°12W
5 km
85
Limit
of fan
SEA BED
00
94
00
00
92 0
0
91
00
89 0
0
88
00
87
MID-EOCENE
BASIN FLOOR
FAN SANDS
86
00
90
00
93
95
00
97
00
96
00
5000
00
5
8 8400
Lin
00
83
e
10000
of
se
0
870
880
0
on
cti
213/10
00
858600
214/6
61°40N
0
890
Block 213/10: Faroe-Shetland Basin
Mid-Eocene sandstone reservoir
PALEOCENE
Estimated
Reserves
Probabilistic: 950 - 1,700 - 2,800 bcf
Deterministic: 1,700 bcf
15000
Atlantic Margin Play
NW
SE
2.0
Sea bed
TWT
(secs)
2.5
Opal Transition
Eocene to Oligocene
3.0
Eocene
basin-floor fan
Top Caledonia Fan
3.5
Eocene
213/10 prospect
1 km
Mid-Eocene basin-floor fan sandstone target
Seismic line courtesy of Fugro-Geoteam AS
Central North Sea
WSW
West Central Graben
East Central Graben
ENE
0
1
Depth (km)
2
6
0
10 km
7
8
Neogene to Quaternary
Eocene to Oligocene
Paleocene
Upper Cretaceous
Lower Cretaceous
Upper Jur assic
Middle Jurassic
Triassic (fluvial reservoir facies)
Triassic (floodplain facies)
Upper Permian (evaporites, minor carbonates)
Upper Permian (aeolian, fluvial facies)
Ordovician to Carboniferous
Proven hydrocarbon-bearing play
Upper Jurassic stratigraphic play
1 km
e
Lin
of s
Smith Bank
High
Stratigraphic
Column
0 feet
3A
CRETACEOUS
io
ect
Depth TVDSS
2°24W
2°36W
Horizon: near top Kimmeridgian (feet)
n
9000
9000
5000
UPPER
JURASSIC
80 00
BURNS SST
basin-floor
sandstones
12/23
70
00
58°10N
10000
L-M JURASSIC
Block 12/23: Moray Firth Basin
TRIASSIC
v v v v
Estimated
Reserves
Probabilistic: 165 - 370 - 695 mmbo
Deterministic: 330 mmbo
PERMIAN
Upper Jurassic stratigraphic play
NNW
SSE
Prospect 12/23
Amplitude
anomaly
1.0
TWT
(secs)
Top Jurassic
1.5
2.0
1 km
Top Triassic
Instantaneous amplitude section: prospect 12/23.
Updip pinchout of Ur Jurassic basin-floor sandstones
Seismic line courtesy of Fugro-Geoteam AS
Mesozoic basin margin play
Burns Sandstone
Member absent
Burns Sandstone
Member absent
1
Stratigraphic
Column
0 feet
SEA BED
Depth TVDSS
0°18W
1 km
0°24W
0°30W
Horizon: near top Jurassic
EOCENE TO
RECENT
0
00 80 00
87 8 89
9000
PALEOCENE
8 40
8800
2
8400
9050
8500
9000
8600
8700
9500
2
1
H
00
88
Line of
section
8900
0
5000
CRETACEOUS
Moray Firth
Basin
BURNS SST
90
00
JURASSIC
20/8
20/9
Undeveloped discovery: well 20/8-2
Late Jurassic basin-floor sandstone reservoir
Estimated reserves: 30 - 100 mmbo
TRIASSIC
10000
Mesozoic basin margin play
20/9-2
20/8-2
SW
H
20/9-1
NE
0.5
TWT (secs)
Eocene
Paleocene
1.5
U. Cretaceous
Jurassic
L. Cretaceous
2.0
2.5
PermoTriassic
Devonian
and older
3.0
20/8-2 oil discovery
1 km
Updip pinchout of U Jurassic basin-floor sandstones
Deep basin (HPHT) play
HPHT
play
area
North Sea Oil
Province:
all fields
HPHT
play
area
North Sea Oil
Province:
HPHT fields
Deep basin (HPHT) play
Base Jurassic
Intra-Triassic
Top L Permian
Eocene &
younger
3 secs
Paleocene
Cretaceous
4 secs
5 secs
6km offset 2D Seismic Data data Acquired Q4 2000
'Seismic data sample supplied courtesy of Veritas DGC Limited'
Southern Gas Basin
SW
NE
East Midland
Shelf
0
Sole Pit
Basin
Cleaver
Bank High
Subsea depth (km)
Jurassic
1
Tertiary - Quaternary
L Cret.
Upper Triassic
U Cretaceous
L Triassic
2
3
4
Carboniferous and older
Upper Permian Zechstein
evaporites - regional seal
Carboniferous - gas source;
reservoir in north of basin
Permian aeolian
sandstone - reservoir
Permian mudstone and
evaporite - seal
Proven hydrocarbon-bearing play
20 km
Lower Permian aeolian margin play
N
Palaeotopographic
high with thin, patchy
aeolian sands preserved
Sabkha / Silverpit
lake margin
Ca
rb
on
ife
ro
us
Postdepositional
tilt
Dominant
wind
direction
Windward
accumulation of
aeolian sands
Leeward
accumulation of
aeolian sands
Prospective
reservoir
Prospective reservoir
Palaeogeomorphic play
1 km
Atlantic Margin & North Sea Oil Province
Heavy Oil on the UKCS
• Developed Fields and Fields
Under Development 3068 MMB stooip
• Significant Discoveries –
1859 MMB stooip
• Other Discoveries –
1885 MMB stooip
Prospects - 2000 MMB stooip
• Total 8812 MMB STOIIP
Developed Fields
Significant Discoveries
Other Discoveries
Prospects
1
Strategic
Environmental
Assessment
4
7
2
5
Future
Programme
3
6
8
2
Summary – why the UKCS?
• 27 BBOE Yet to Find
• 2001 BUZZARD largest UKCS
discovery since 1993
• Deep water Atlantic Margin
under-explored
• Subtle traps and non-conventional
plays in the North Sea
• 35% E&A well success rate
Conclusions
• Full spectrum of opportunities
remain
• Need to make the UK a better
place to do business – stable,
responsive, transparent, competitive
• Want to get licenses in hands of
those who are ‘hungry and
innovative’ – Brian Wilson (UK
Energy Minister)
Why the UKCS?
Acknowledgements
Sue Stoker and Don Cameron of the BGS for the
mapping
Fugro-Geoteam,Veritas for providing
seismic data
IHS Energy, Wood MacKenzie and Actis
Geoscience for providing graphical data
Colleagues at the DTI for their review of the
data and presentation material