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Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and Michael Maret Shippensburg University ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! Baltimore ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! Washington, DC ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Research objectives Generate forecasts of urban growth in the BMR o Incorporate “drivers” of urbanization o Loosely couple with hydrologic model to capture humanenvironmental feedbacks ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! Baltimore ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! Washington, DC ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! CNH: Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban Growth NSF award ID 0709537 How SLEUTH works Calibration 1984 Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505 How SLEUTH works Calibration 1984 1992 Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505 How SLEUTH works Calibration Forecasting 1984 1992 2001 Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505 How SLEUTH works Calibration Validation Forecasting 1984 1992 2001 2006 Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505 Research Design Unconstrained Constrained with Pop + Emp forecasts Base Sewer service areas Pop + Emp for RPDs - - - MIN MIN MIN SQ SQ SQ MAX MAX MAX SLEUTH’s exclusion layers Validation (unconstrained) 1,400 Mapped Urban area (km2) 1,350 Base-unconstrained Sewer-unconstrained 1,300 RPD-unconstrained SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients remain unadjusted 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 2010 Validation (unconstrained) But the future is expected to be different from the past Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts. Percent of Land as Urban 100 80 60 40 20 0 1,000 Population Intensity (residents/km2) 8,000 1,000 Employment Intensity (jobs/km2) 1,000 6,400 Human Intensity (humans/km2) Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts. 13,000 Validation (constrained) 1,400 Mapped 1,350 RPD-Min Urban area (km2) RPD-Status quo 1,300 RPD-Max Adjust SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 2010 Validation (constrained) Validation (constrained) Constraining the forecasts Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts. Constraining the forecasts 1,400 Urban area (km2) 1,350 1,300 Adjust SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients 1,250 1,200 RPD-Min RPD-Status quo 1,150 RPD-Max 1,100 Year Constraining the forecasts Conclusions and lessons learned SLEUTH’s calibration process can be used to evaluate “drivers” of urbanization Validation is critical for: o Improving our understanding of how the urban system behaves o Quantifying model uncertainty o Incorporating additional models to inform SLEUTH’s forecasts References Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts. Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505 Jantz, C.A., S.J. Goetz, P. Claggett, and D. Donato (2010). Modeling regional patterns of urbanization in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 34:1-16. Maret, Michael (2011). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to identify "drivers" of land use change in the Baltimore metropolitan region. Geoenvironmental research. Student white paper published at http://webspace.ship.edu/cajant/student_white_papers.html McConnell, W.J at al. (2011). Research on Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Approach, Challenges, and Strategies. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 92 (2): 218-228 THANK YOU Claire Welty (PI), Andrew Miller, Bernadette Hanlon, and Michael P. McGuire Claire Jantz (PI) and Scott A. Drzyzga with Michael Maret. Reed Maxwell (PI) James Smith (PI) Mary Lynn Baeck Gary Fisher NSF award ID 0709537 CNH: Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban Growth