Transcript IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Sweden and IIASA
Highlights
(2008-2014)
September 2014
CONTENTS
1. Summary
2. National Member Organization
3. Some Leading Swedish Personalities Associated with
IIASA
4. Research Partners
5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights
6. Capacity Building
7. Further Information
SUMMARY (2008-2014)
National Member
Organization
The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural
Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS)
Membership start date
1976
Research partners
30 organizations in Sweden
Areas of research
collaborations
Research collaborations to tackle climate change
Transitions toward a sustainable energy system
Swedish forests: Natural resources and ecosystem services
The future of fisheries
Projecting demographic change in Sweden
The Arctic and Sweden
Advancing the research methods of systems analysis
Capacity building
24 doctoral students from Sweden have participated in IIASA’s
Young Scientists Summer Program and its new Southern African
version
Publication output
199 publications have resulted from IIASA-Swedish collaborations
Other interactions
Researchers, advisors, and diplomats from Sweden have visited
IIASA over 135 times, while IIASA scientists have visited Sweden
over 175 times.
NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION
The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and
Spatial Planning (FORMAS)
Swedish-IIASA Committee
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Ingrid Petersson (Chair), General Director, FORMAS, and IIASA Council Member for Sweden
Professor Love Ekenberg, Head, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences (DSV),
Stockholm University; Visiting Professor, KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Dr Jakob Granit, Centre Director, and Deputy Director, Stockholm Environment Institute
Dr Klaus Hammes, Head, Policy Analysis Unit, Swedish Energy Agency
Dr Hördur Haraldsson, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency
Mr Jan Lagerström, Research Director, Swedish Forest Industries Federation
Professor Annika Nordin, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)
Professor Dr Björn Stigson, Chairman, Stigson & Partners
Professor Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, Lund University
Dr Sandro Caruso, Senior Research Officer at FORMAS is the NMO Secretary for Sweden.
SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN SWEDEN AND
ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
Bert Bolin
Carl Folke
Johan Rockström
Lisa Sennerby-Forsse
Anna Ledin
Bjӧrn Stigson
RESEARCH PARTNERS
• 30 institutions in Sweden, including:
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KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Lund University
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
Stockholm University
Swedish Board of Fisheries (NBF)
Swedish Energy Agency
Swedish Environmental Protection Agency
Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL)
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)
Umeå University
RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS
Selected Highlights:
• Bioenergy potentials in Sweden
• Optimal location of biofuel plants in Sweden
• Projecting changing population in Sweden
• Global Energy Assessment and Sweden
• Methane emissions and the Arctic
• Improved fishing policies
BIOENERGY POTENTIALS IN SWEDEN
Total production of bioenergy 20002050 under the different scenarios
Cumulative deforestation 2000-2050
caused by land use change
according to the different scenarios
The Future of Nordic Forestry: A Global Perspective. (In press) Westholm, Lindahl, Kraxner (Eds). Springer
OPTIMAL LOCATION OF BIOFUEL PLANTS
Wetterlund, E., Pettersson, K., et. al., (2013) Optimal localisation of next generation biofuel production in Sweden – Part II. Report No 2013:26, f3 The Swedish Knowledge Centre
for Renewable Transportation Fuels, Sweden.
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDEN
Age (in Years)
Sweden - Base Year 2010
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
To update with Finland
9.4 Million
Males
500
Females
300
100
100
Population in Thousands
300
500
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDEN
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
Sweden - Projections 2030 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
11.1 Million
Males
500
Females
300
100
100
Population in Thousands
300
500
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDEN
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
Sweden - Projections 2060 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
13.8 Million
Males
500
400
Females
300
200
100
0
100
Population in Thousands
200
300
400
500
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDEN
Age (in Years)
Sweden - Base Year 2010
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
To update with Finland
9.4 Million
Males
500
Females
300
100
100
Population in Thousands
300
500
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDEN
STALLED DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
Sweden - Projections 2030 - SSP3
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10.1 Million
Males
500
Females
300
100
100
Population in Thousands
300
500
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDEN
STALLED DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
Sweden - Projections 2060 - SSP3
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
9.9 Million
Males
500
400
Females
300
200
100
0
100
Population in Thousands
200
300
400
500
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND SWEDEN
• 2006-12: GEA defines a new global
energy policy agenda—one that
transforms the way society thinks about,
uses, and delivers energy.
• Significant Swedish contribution:
– Sponsorship (FORMAS & Swedish Energy
Agency)
– Direction via key roles in GEA governing
Council and executive committee
– 16 Swedish authors and reviewers
• One notable outcome: GEA guides
targets of UN Secretary-General’s
Sustainable Energy For All Initiative
Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
16
METHANE EMISSIONS AND THE ARCTIC
Implementation of existing control technology in Arctic countries would
contribute to significant reductions in future global methane emissions
Future scenarios of global anthropogenic methane
emissions in the GAINS model
600
with current control policies
Tg CH4 per year
500
400
300
with max feasible
implementation of existing
control technology in Arctic
Council member countries only
200
100
Source: Höglund-Isaksson, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2012)
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
0
with max feasible implentation
globally of existing control
technology
IMPROVED FISHING POLICIES
• Northern Cod stock collapsed in
1992 and has not recovered
since
• Heavy exploitation favors earlier
maturation at smaller size
• We have documented a
15% drop in age at maturation
and a 30% drop in size at
maturation
• Such evolutionary impacts
of fishing are very slow and
difficult to reverse
• New tool: Evolutionary Impact
Assessments (Science
318:1247, Science 320:48)
Size at 50% maturation
probability at age 5 (cm)
80
70
Moratorium
60
50
40
30
1975
1992
Nature 428:932
2004
CAPACITY BUILDING
• 23 doctoral students studying in Sweden have won places
on IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program since 2008.
CAPACITY BUILDING
Southern-African Young
Scientist Summer
Program: (SA-YSSP)
•
Jonas Wickman (SA-YSSP 2013-14 &
Umeå University) researched the
impact of spatial structure on
evolutionary food-web formation.
CAPACITY BUILDING
10 postdoctoral fellows from Sweden have developed their
research and published widely at IIASA since 2008
FURTHER INFORMATION
IIASA
www.iiasa.ac.at
The Swedish Research Council for Environment,
Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning
(FORMAS)
www.formas.se