Transcript Michigan Irrigation: Opportunities and Challenges for
Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region
Examples of Indirect Impacts of Climate Change
Jeffrey A. Andresen Dept. of Geography Michigan State University
Indirect Effects of Climate Change
• Largely ignored in previous research • May have profound effects on productivity
Indirect Effects of Climate Change
• Incidence of pests and pathogens • Increased rates of soil erosion and degredation • Increased pressure on environmental and natural resources, loss of biodiversity – Surface and ground water availability – Loss of species • Possible imbalance between production areas in cool/temperate zones and those in tropical areas
Site Slope (yr -1 ) Med
Y62 0.00 2 bc APN 0.00 2 bc TVC 0.25* 1 c GRB 0.05 5 a MKG 0.07 3 ab GRR 0.14 * 4 ab TOL 0.13** 4 ab * p=0.05
** p = 0.01
*** p = 0.001
10 DSV’s in 5 Days
30 TOLEDO 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1960 1970 Year 1980 1990 2000
Day Types
Number of days with DSV=0 DSV=1 DSV=2 DSV=3 DSV=4 Site
Y62 -0.22 * 0.03
APN -0.44 ** 0.14
TVC -0.10
GRB -0.19 * 0.00
0.00
MKG -0.30 ** 0.09
GRR -0.48
0.15
TOL -0.25
0.06
Slope Estimate
0.08 * 0.02
0.00
0.03
0.09 * 0.04
0.22 ** 0.00
0.13 * 0.00
0.04 * 0.16 ** 0.11 ** 0.07
0.00
0.09 * 0.06 ** 0.03
0.04
0.13 * 0.08
DSV(0)
30-Day Growing Season Trends
SITE
Y63 APN TRV GRB MKG GRR TOL
SITE
Y63 APN TRV GRB MKG GRR TOL
N
47 35 49 36 45 36 41
LAT
46.68
45.06
44.75
44.52
43.23
42.96
41.66
1-May 0.03
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
2 3 2 3 2 4 7 c bc c ab bc ab a
Trends in DSV's Accumulated in 30 Day Periods (by beginning date) Non-Parametric Slope Estimates
15-May 0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.08
0.14
0.14
4 4 4 9 7 8.5
13 c bc bc ab abc a a 1-Jun 0.06
0.15
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.18
0.24 *
Median Value / ANOVA Grouping by Rank
7 7 7 12 bc c bc abc 11 14 ab a 14 a 15-Jun 0.16 * 0.31 ** 0.06
0.11
0.15 * 0.30 * 0.16
11 9 10 16 14 14.5
16 ab b b a ab ab a 1-Jul 0.16 * 0.33 ** 0.00
0.08
0.19 * 0.36 ** 0.08
16 17 11 21.5
20 16.5
20 bc bc c a ab bc ab 15-Jul 0.13
0.33 * 0.09
0.00
0.21
0.58 ** 0.14
20 18 14 26.5
27 22.5
28 abc bc c a ab abc ab 1-Aug 0.13
0.27
0.12
0.11
0.27
0.63 * 0.31
20 21 16 26.5
28 26 28 ab ab b a a ab a 15-Aug 0.07
0.33 * 0.12
0.07
0.13
0.29
0.32
21 20 15 27 22 22.5
25 ab ab b a a ab a 1-Sep 0.08
0.13
0.05
0.11
-0.08
-0.10
0.00
14 13 10 17 15 17.5
20 ab ab b ab ab ab a
15 10 35 30 25 APN time vs Col 4 GRR GRB MKG TOL TVC Y62 p = 0.01 p = 0.05
20 5 0 May 1 May 15 June 1 June 15 July 1 July 15 Aug 1 Aug 15 Moving 4 Week Mean, by Starting Date Sept 15
Associated Weather-based Trends
Site
Y63 APN TRV GRB MKG GRR TOL
Site
Y63 APN TRV GRB MKG GRR TOL
N
47 35 49 36 45 36 41
N
47 35 49 36 45 36 41 Season May June July Aug Sept
Dew Point Temperature Trend (C)
0.01
0.02
0.05 *** 0.06
0.02
0.00
0.02 * 0.02
0.03
0.02
0.01
-0.02
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.05
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.03
0.04
0.01
0.06 ** 0.02
0.03
0.01
0.05
0.04 * 0.01
0.05 * 0.02
0.02
0.01
0.05 * 0.02
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.03
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02 * 0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
Air Temperature Trend (C)
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.03
-0.01
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.01
0.02
-0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.02 * 0.02
0.00
0.02
0.03
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.02
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
* p = 0.05
** p = 0.01
*** p = 0.001
Simulated Pest Management Parameters, Apple Codling Moth
East Jordan, MI
2 1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1 0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 1201 1477 SGDD 1663 2 3 No.Gen.
3 4 6 No.Sprays
6 Obs., 1960-1989 HadCM2 2090-2099 CGCM1 2090-2099