Transcript US-Russian Relations: Nuclear Arms Race and Disarmament

US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS:
NUCLEAR ARMS RACE
AND DISARMAMENT
Matt Rosenstein
Associate Director
Arms Control, Disarmament, and International
Security (ACDIS) at UIUC
Modified by: Kevin Sacerdote Mandarin High School Jacksonville, FL
WHAT HATH WE WROUGHT?
Only country in the world to carry out a
nuclear attack?
•United States, on Japan, WWII
•Hiroshima (August 6, 1945)
and Nagasaki (August 9, 1945)
Fat Man and Little Boy
HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI
Estimated that between 115,000170,000 were killed immediately
 Twice as many more died over time
(radiation poisoning)
 95% of deaths were civilian

NUCLEAR SHADOWS
BEFORE & AFTER THE BOMB
HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI




Little Boy: 13,000 tons of TNT equivalent
Most nuclear warheads today: yield between
150 kiloton-1 megaton
“Tsar bomba”: Soviets exploded a
50-megaton bomb in test (1961)
Spasm attack by US or USSR would
result in 40-75 million Soviet and
110-150 million US deaths
(RAND, 1960)
US AND SOVIET NUCLEAR STRATEGIC FORCES,
1950-2000
US
USSR/Russia
Year Launchers
Warheads
Launchers
Warheads
1950 462
400
22*
84*
1960 1,559
3,127
144
354
1970 2,100
5,239
1,985
2,216
1980 2,022
10,608
2,545
7,480
1990 1,903
12,477
2,500
10,271
2000 1,407
7,519
1,266
6,094
2005 1,225
5,966
981
4,732
Source: Arms Control Association, Fact Sheets (2005)
*=1956 totals
USSR’S TOP PRIORITY TARGETS
(RECOGNIZE THE GEOGRAPHY?)
CHARACTERISTICS OF US AND SOVIET NUCLEAR
STRATEGIC FORCES (“DELIVERY SYSTEMS”)
•
Both US and USSR created “nuclear
triad” forces:
•
•
•
Ground (ICBM)
Sea (SLBM)
Air (Bombers)
THE ARMS RACE: WHY?
•Territorial integrity and national sovereignty
•Ideological struggle
•Capitalism vs. communism
•Liberal democracy vs. authoritarian rule
•Military prowess: nukes as visible symbol of
power
•USSR could not keep up economically
•MAD = Mutually Assured Destruction
•Deterrence
•Bargaining power / leverage in multilateral bodies
US-RUSSIA ARMS RACE:
A BRIEF EARLY CHRONOLOGY
1942
US initiates Manhattan Project
1945
Hiroshima and Nagasaki
1949
Soviet explosion of nuclear device
1957
Sputnik
1962
Cuban Missile Crisis
EARLY US NUCLEAR WAR PLAN(S)
(ACC. TO THE DEAD HAND. PP. 15-24 )

Eisenhower’s: drafted in 1960



“Massive Retaliation”
Overkill-use of 3,500 nuclear weapons against the USSR
John F. Kennedy (and Robert McNamara)





“Counterforce”
At first, Implied a limited Nuclear Strike (aim for weapon storage
facilities, not populations or factories)
Later, “Assured Destruction” 20-25% of the population, 50% of
the Industry
“Mutual “ was added by Donald Brennan of the Hudson Institute
to create the acronym “MAD” (Mutual Assured Destruction)
The USSR does NOT achieve Nuclear Parity with the USA until
the late 1960’s/Early 1970’s --- Leads to: Keepin’ Up With the
Jones’
ARMS CONTROL TREATIES
BE SURE TO REVIEW THE TYPED INFORMATION ON
THE GOPO WEBSITE!!!
Multilateral:
Antarctic Treaty (1959)
 Outer Space Treaty (1967)
Outlaws military uses for either area.

Biological Weapons Convention (1972)
 Inhumane Weapons Convention (1981)
Outlaws use of chemical weapons, other weapons that could
cause undue “collateral damage”

ARMS CONTROL (CONT.)

Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (1968)
Prevents transfer of nuclear weapons and/or technology
to non-nuclear states.

Limited Test Ban Treaty (1968)
Prohibits testing weapons in atmosphere, outer space,
and underwater (later expanded)
US-RUSSIA DISARMAMENT: A BRIEF CHRONOLOGY
1963
Limited Test Ban Treaty
•End of atmospheric testing
•“Hotline”
•Halt proliferation to other states
1969-1972
SALT I
•Set numerical limits on missile launchers
(not warheads-->MIRVs)
1972-1979
SALT II
•Broader limits than SALT I…but Afghanistan
spoiled negotiations (Ratified?)
US-RUSSIA DISARMAMENT:
A BRIEF CHRONOLOGY
1972
ABM Treaty
•Limited each to two ABM sites (no
nationwide defense)
•Prohibited sea-, air-, space-based systems
•Limit on qualitative improvement
•Problematic: “Star Wars”, US pull-out in
2001-2
1972
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
ARMS CONTROLS US/USSR (CONT)

Intermediate-range Nuclear Force (INF)
Treaty (1987)
Eliminates shorter-range missiles in Europe; allows for
onsite inspections

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
(1991)
30% reduction in total nuclear arsenal.
US-RUSSIA DISARMAMENT:
A BRIEF CHRONOLOGY
1991
START I Treaty
•Negotiated almost 10 years
•Reductions in launchers (max.
1,600) and warheads (max. 6,000)
1993
START II Treaty
•Further reductions; never ratified by
US Senate and Russian Duma
SOVIET NUCLEAR ASSETS AT TIME OF
BREAK-UP
ICBMs: 94
ICBM Launcher Pads: 54
Warheads:~225
Belarus
Ukraine
ICBMs: 258
ICBM Launchers: 176
36
HBs:
Warhead:~1,984
ICBMs: 115
ICBM Launchers: 104
HBs:
40
Warhead:~1,462
Russia
ICBMs: 1,340
SLBMs: 1,924
87
HBs:
Warheads::~11,296
Kazakhstan
SSBN Base
ICBM Base (Silo)
Mobile ICBM Base
Production Facilities
Non deployed ICBMs
Heavy Bombers
Major Destruction & Dismantlement Site
Chemical Weapons & Support Facility
BIOWEAPONS PROGRAMS
•1960s: both US and USSR were developing bio-weapons programs
(US stockpiled tularemia bacteria, anthrax, a Venezuelan equine
encephalomyelitis virus (dried and liquid), and other “items”
•1972: BWC: US, USSR (other actors, such as UK) agreed to halt bioweapons research
•1992: Russian scientists reported work with smallpox from 1970s1990s (felt the USA was also cheating- Dead Hand ( by David Hoffman)
claims most of the US stockpile was destroyed in 1973 pp. 101-126)
•Bio-Program cheaper than nukes (Bacteria = Prefix “L” and
Viruses = Prefix “N”)
•Worked with Plague (L1), Tularemia(L2), Brucellosis (L3),
Anthrax 836 (L4), Smallpox (Variola) (N1), Ebola (N2), Marburg
(N3), Tularemia(L2), and others in large quantities
•Various research efforts: aerosolizing the virus; placed on
ballistic missile warheads…
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
(ACC. TO HOFFMAN’S DEAD HAND)

1975 to 1991
 Covertly, USSR built the largest
biological weapons program in the
world
 Experimentations with genetic
engineering to create pathogens that
would cause unstoppable diseases
 Unstoppable
diseases not considered a
“battlefield weapon” (p. 14)
AFTER THE SOVIET BREAK-UP:
PROLIFERATION AND “BRAIN DRAIN”
•Concerns over safeguarding nuclear
technologies and materials
•Dysfunctional military: command and
control?
• ~150,000 scientists, engineers,
technicians employed in weapons-related
work
•1990s economic crisis meant low wages
(or back wages owed…) --> “nuclear
entrepreneurs”
•Sell their knowledge?Seek employment
in countries with nuclear aspirations?
COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION
IN RUSSIA
Silo Launcher Elimination
Heavy Bomber Elimination
SS-24/SS-25 Mobile
Launcher Elimination
SSBN/SLBM Dismantlement
& Elimination
Solid Propellant ICBM/SLBM and
Mobile Launcher Elimination
Liquid Propellant ICBM/
SLBM Elimination
COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION
IN RUSSIA
Keeping out the terrorists
at Vector (biotechnology
facility, Koltsovo,
Russia)…
COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION:
ACCOMPLISHMENTS
•More than 6,000 nuclear weapons destroyed
•Thousands of launchers, missiles, devices
•Removed all weapons from Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan
(pp. 440 – 458 of The Dead Hand )
•Employed thousands of former weapons scientists
•Also destroying chemical and biological weapons
•The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and its
Dangerous Legacy, by David E. Hoffman (2009, Doubleday Publishing)
THE ABM TREATY:
A BUMP IN THE ROAD?
•In Dec. 2001, Bush administration gave 6month notice that US would withdraw from
treaty
•Why? US wants to develop NMD to protect
against WMD threats from terrorists, “rogue
states”
•Putin regime protested vehemently-->felt it
would limit their deterrence capabilities
(made START II levels undesirable)
•Failure of Russian diplomacy?
THE ABM TREATY:
A BUMP IN THE ROAD?
•SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions
Treaty), or “Moscow Treaty” signed in May
2002
•Cut warheads to 1,700-2,200 by 2012
•Ratified in 2003 by Duma and Senate
US-RUSSIAN ARMS RACE LEGACY: ONGOING
CONCERNS
•Potential for technology, materials,
knowledge transfers
•“Setting a bad example”—weapons
stockpiles and fissile materials stocks are
disincentives for India, Pakistan, Israel(?),
Iran, N. Korea, etc.
US-RUSSIAN ARMS RACE LEGACY: ONGOING
CONCERNS
•Whither the United States?
•National Missile Defense
•Earth-penetrating nukes, mini-nukes
•Nuclear primacy?
•Whither Russia?
•Superpower nostalgia
•Maintain credible deterrence
•Relations with China, Iran vs. with US,
EU