Transcript Renewable Energy Project Analysis with RETScreen Software

Renewable Energy Project Analysis
®
with RETScreen Software
Renewable Energy Project Analysis Course - Module 1
Energy Model Cost Analysis
GHG Analysis
Financial Summary
Cash Flow Graph
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Objectives
• Illustrate role of preliminary
feasibility studies
• Demonstrate how the RETScreen®
software works
• Show how RETScreen® makes it easier
to help identify & assess potential
projects
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Energy Project
Implementation Process
Pre-feasibility
Analysis
Feasibility
Analysis
Significant barrier
RE projects not being
considered up-front!
Development
& Engineering
Construction &
Commissioning
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Questions
• What is an acceptable level of
accuracy for project cost
estimates?
• How much do these studies
typically cost?
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Accuracy vs. Investment Cost Dilemma
$100 to $1,000,000!
When should RE technologies
be assessed?
• Need for energy system
Pre-feasibility
Analysis
Feasibility
Analysis
• New construction or planned
renovation
• High conventional energy costs
• Interest by key stakeholders
• Approvals possible
Preliminary
feasibility studies
• Funding & financing accessible
• Good local RE resource, etc.
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Project Viability (Wind Example)
Depends on Several Factors
• RE resource available at project site
Wind Turbine & Tower
(e.g. wind speed)
• Equipment performance
(e.g. wind turbine power curve)
• Initial project costs
(e.g. wind turbines, towers, engineering)
• “Base case” credits
(e.g. diesel generators for remote sites)
• On-going and periodic project costs
(e.g. cleaning of wind turbine blades)
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Project Viability
Depends on Several Factors - cont.
• Avoided cost of energy
(e.g. wholesale electricity price)
• Financing
(e.g. debt ratio & length, interest rate)
• Taxes on equipment & income (or savings)
• Environmental characteristics of energy displaced
(e.g. coal, natural gas, oil, large hydro, nuclear)
• Environmental credits and/or subsidies
(e.g. greenpower rates, GHG credits, grants)
• Decision-maker’s definition of cost-effective
(e.g. payback period, IRR, NPV, RE production costs)
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Why Use RETScreen®?
• Simplifies preliminary evaluations

Requires relatively small amounts of information

Calculates key technical and financial viability indicators
automatically
• Costs 1/10th the amount of other assessment
methods
• Standardized procedures allow objective
comparisons
• Increases potential for successful RE
project implementation
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
®
RETScreen Validation - Example
Accuracy of Solar Resource Tilt-up Model within 7% !
Mean daily global radiation in the plane of the PV array
Measured Data
Source: Thevenard, et al, 1997
Calculated Data
Iqaluit, NT
90º Array Tilt
®
RETScreen Software
Demonstration
• Generic features

Models standardised

Cell colour coding

On-line manual

Product data

Cost data & currencies

Weather data

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ground sites

satellites
Financial analysis method
• Wind energy project example
Cell Colour Coding
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
®
RETScreen Software
Financial Analysis Method
Comparison:
•
Base Case vs. Proposed Case
•
Conventional system vs.
renewable energy system
Example:
•
Standard building cladding
(siding) and a natural gas
fired air heater
vs.
•
Solarwall cladding with solar
air heating plus the
conventional natural gas
fired air heater
Yellowknife School Solarwall Under Construction
Photo Credit: Arctic Energy Alliance
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Software Demo
20 MW Wind Energy Project
Input/Output
(RETScreen®)
Scenario #1
(Merchant Plant)
Scenario # 2
(Green Power Plant)
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Project location:
Wind speed:
GHG emissions reduction:
Wind turbine cost:
RE production credit:
GHG credit (coal plant):
Debt term:
Positive cash flow:
Return on investment:
Calgary, AB
4.4 m/s
25,123 tCO2/yr
$1,200/kW
$0/kWh
$0/ton
10 years
52 years
- 6.4%
Pincher Creek, AB
Lethbridge  7.0 m/s
 63,486 tCO2/yr
 $1,000/kW
 $0.025/kWh
 $5/ton
 15 years
5.5 years
22.0%
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Software Demo
Scenario 1
Scenario #1
(Merchant Plant)
Calgary, AB
4.4 m/s
$1,200/kW
25,123 tCO2/yr
$0/kWh
$0/ton
10 years
52 years
- 6.4%
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Software Demo
Wind Speed & GHG Emission Reduction
Scenario # 1a
(Green Power Plant)
Pincher Creek, AB
Lethbridge  7.0 m/s
63,486 tCO2/yr
18.8 years
4.2%
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Software Demo
Wind Turbine Cost
Scenario # 1b
$1,000/kW
17.0 years
6.0%
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Software Demo
RE Production Credit
Scenario # 1c
$0.025/kWh
10.3 years
17.1%
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Software Demo
GHG Emissions Credit
Scenario # 1d
$5/ton
7.9 years
19.5%
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Software Demo
Debt Term
Scenario # 2
15 years
5.5 years
22.0%
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.
Questions?
© Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2001 – 2002.